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SO to EB2-I is going to be heavily dependent on EB2-WW demand and whether there are any spare FB visas.
Currently, I am assuming there will be no extra FB visas.
For EB2-ROW, assuming it takes an average of 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval (I think that is fairly reasonable (it fits the pattern seen in FY2014), but you can play with it), then PERM certifications from Q3-Q4 of the previous FY and Q1-Q2 of the current FY will contribute to I-485 approvals in the current FY (although not NIW or Sch A).
For FY2014 I-485 approvals, that number was 12.6k PERM certifications for ROW.
For FY2015 I-485 approvals, there are likely to be about 11k ROW PERM Certifications for Q3-Q4 FY2014, plus any certifications made in Q1-Q2 FY2015. Even if PERM processing times doubled starting from October, there will still be more projected EB2-ROW approvals in FY2015 than in FY2014. The size of EB2-ROW approvals will be dependent on when the PERM slowdown occurs and the extent of that slowdown. My crystal ball is currently broken, so I can't assess that yet :).
Historically, EB2-Mexico will provide FA within EB2. EB2-Philippines may, or may not.
As well as the current Inventory of "old" cases, the July-September period seems to have stimulated a large number of first time filers within the current COD.
I expect CO to use the 3k initial allocation for EB2-I in October, but I don't think that will allow all the remaining "old" cases to be approved (I'm aware not everybody shares this opinion). Any SO (presumably only released towards the end of FY2015) will have to cover :
Approvals from a retrogressed COD from November onwards, plus
"Old" cases left behind, plus
The new applications that will be preadjudicated by that time, plus
Any new porting cases, plus
Any forward movement of the COD beyond 01MAY09.
If EB2-WW is going to provide the bulk of that SO, then it is difficult to see dates moving beyond 2009.
I am not disagreeing in any of this in THEORY but practically I believe that there is a scope for things to play out much differently. Just one example - I am not sure what's percentage of EB-I PERM application you have assumed for FY2015. EB-I PERM application percentage is increasing significantly year on year. So who knows, EB-ROW PERM application may drop significantly ( you seem to have assumed it to be constant) providing much more SO than you anticipate.
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Look, by definition, it is very speculative. You may not agree and it would be hard for me to argue against another scenario. I can only state it as I see it, which I have always tried to do. I think most regular forum members know I tend to err on the pessimistic side and I make no apologies for doing so. I've never asked people to agree with my predictions - I prefer to provide good data that people can use to make their own prediction.
Fully agree. Personally, I have always been interested only in the top class information and data you provide and much less interested in your predictions. They are too negative for my liking and have never been near where actual dates move. (Partly because they are extremely conservative and may be agencies involved do not do as much data analysis as you do- Thankfully :))
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As you say, something always comes along. I have a suspicion (gut feel only) that EB1 approvals are somewhat "massaged" to stay within the initial allocation for EB1. That would allow the full EB4 Fall up to EB1 to further Fall Down to EB2. Maybe there will be significant numbers of FB visas.
You like it or not Spec, but that's how things have played out in past. My PD being in Q4 2009, naturally I wish it repeats this year too. Whether it really happens - can't really tell as crystal ball is broken here too :)