EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q I very sincerely hope that this model that you project is the correct one I agree with you that the 52K applied to 6 months or 7 months can yield different results. I have a question about CP, traditionally the consulates return their results in the last few months typically before the last VB so could it be that the CP approvals are not added, and this could deduct a good number out of the 19K.

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http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

Looks like they allocate some numbers every month to CP and are supposed to return the unused monthly. Quoted the same below

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Allocations to Foreign Service posts outside the regular monthly cycle are possible in emergency
or exceptional cases, but only at the request of the office processing the case. Note that should
retrogression of a cut-off date be announced, VO can honor extraordinary requests for additional
numbers only if the applicant's priority date is earlier than the retrogressed cut-off date.

Not all numbers allocated are actually used for visa issuance; some are returned to VO and are
reincorporated into the pool of numbers available for later allocation during the fiscal year. The
rate of return of unused numbers may fluctuate from month to month, just as demand may
fluctuate. Lower returns mean fewer numbers available for subsequent reallocation. Fluctuations
can cause cut-off date movement to slow, stop, or even retrogress. Retrogression is particularly
possible near the end of the fiscal year as visa issuance approaches the annual limitations.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

52K was the number of all visas issued by DoS. So if CP is going to return some then that actually will be upside.

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Q I believe I did not phrase my question correctly, I think by using "Returns" I confused it further by saying that these ae the excessive numbers that consulates would return.

I am trying to outline another scenario that the 19K visas for a moment let’s assume are September only. Is there a possibility that these do not include ALL the CP approvals for the year thus far? I feel there could have possibly been 8-10K CP approvals this year. Thinking otherwise I do not feel it’s prudent to have left 19K for the last month, Aug just applied 3K, so potentially 22k was left for the Aug bulletin I feel they should have allocated a lot more for the Aug bulletin in that case. The scenario that Iam trying to outline maybe completely hypothetical just another possible scenario. Non inclusion of CP approvals may run contrary to the fact that demand data must include CP.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy

As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.

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Also, does this mean that they are saving all these numbers for last month?

So far solely from MITBBS. But the reason I believe its credible is because teh chinese have a very effective lobbying groups that apparently get this information periodically.. So this probably isn't the first time they have done it. As somebody said earlier, this couldve been obtained under right to information act/s.

It would be a shame on the Indian groups that collect thousands in donations if they never tried to get such kind of information.

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Originally Posted by 28thJune2007

Q

Is this 52K number available somewhere on DOS/USCIS websites or solely based on MITBBS....thanks

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ct, cant thank you enough. Welcome to forum.

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Originally Posted by ct06511

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

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Spec

general question,
Is it possible to to give the spillover numbers to EB3 without making EB2 current? sameway will EB2 receive numbers from EB5 only if EB1 is current?

T ,

VO may had numbers but hold on to it so he can blow PWMB , in case USCIS approves then in a month ( All we know they can't but VO doesn't have control over that ) and once put into demand he can't ignore them. So what he may did is limit supply for August. Now if he has 19k left for Sep , he can allocate 8 - 8.5 k needed for EB2 IC and rest for EB1 , EB2 Row etc. He could do same in August too but what if allocated all those 9k to India / China and EB1 and rest demand surge in Sep, then he end up applying cutoff date for those. while doing more spill over in Sep , here is what might happen. It will clear Eb2 IC and those 10k left over will go to Eb1 & rest , now if they run out of visas for them in last week of Sep VO don't need to worry since in new month they will have more supply. So date will not retro for those categories.

I think its a calculated move by DOS. Even USCIS can't spoil it. ( To spoil USCIS needs to show up with demand more than 15k for Eb1 & rest categories in Sep demand data ).

With all due respect to this source-- the same source after talking to CO had predicted several months movement for August VB. If we go several pages back on this thread, you'll see it. ( source from 'unknown space station')

I was pumped up last night about this 19k left-over, but this morning I have a different feeling :)

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Originally Posted by ct06511

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

发信人: cnus (会飞的猪), 信区: EB23
标 题: Re: 公布２０１１年前７个月审批数据具体情况
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 15 11:35:57 2011, 美东)

这个１２１０００到哪，我问了好几次了，比较明确是COVER他已经公布的８月排期。
直接问１９０００是不是给９月的，两遍，不同角度，他就不愿意正面直接回答。


【 在 mozhu (墨猪) 的大作中提到: 】
: cnus我是菜鸟对你的计算有一个问题
: 7.13后还剩19k明额
: 这19k是要批完EB1和中国印度以外EB2后才会给EB2IC
: 也就是2个半月的EB1和中国印度以外EB2
: 根据你以下的计算(在二楼）一个月要7631用在EB1和中国印度以外EB2
: 那两个半月7631*2.5=19078. 岂不正好是19k?
: then nothing left?


【 在 seansoon (商裔) 的大作中提到: 】
: CNUS, thanks for the data.
: There is a critical question about the 19K. O said :" As of July 13th,
: there are 19k available..."
: Does this 19k include EB2 Rest of the world, EB1 and Eb5 from July 13th
to
: September 30th? Because there is no "Pai Qi" for them. Could you clarify
: this?
: If this 19k does include those, then there would not be much left for
EB2
: CI.
: Thanks

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Thanks for the link K. Looks like the author of this blog is a regular reader amongst us :). Whatever is written on his blog has been discussed here by the Guru's which cannot be co-incidence cause of the use of certain terms (ex: PWMB). Anyway, I guess this is another traffic routing gimmick. My 2 cents on this anyways!

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Originally Posted by kolugc

Not sure if somebody had posted this here before, did check couple of last pages and did not find it and so posting this here.

I felt its a good read and reflects whats discussed here...

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ect-in-fy.html

I hope posting a link here is fine... If not please remove my post.

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Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

Good point Leo. I second this!

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Originally Posted by leo07

With all due respect to this source-- the same source after talking to CO had predicted several months movement for August VB. If we go several pages back on this thread, you'll see it. ( source from 'unknown space station')

I was pumped up last night about this 19k left-over, but this morning I have a different feeling :)

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Teddy

I think we have passed the hurdle of being comfortable with teh numbers. As discussed offline the 52K doesn't include CP, but it is a 7 month number. So I think those two factors are a wash to each other. So again ... the full year normal rate consumption = 52/7 * 12 + 10K for CP = 100. It implies 40K net sofad + 5.6K EB2IC = 46K. That sounds too good to be true. But 5K seems like a lower bound for any movement.

As per why would they allocate less for August, it could be because they want to artificially create a situation where supply way exceeds demand and thereby creating a justifiable ground for BTM. I already hinted at this in one of my previous posts .... but really this is just a theory. We can never know for sure.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q I believe I did not phrase my question correctly, I think by using "Returns" I confused it further by saying that these ae the excessive numbers that consulates would return.

I am trying to outline another scenario that the 19K visas for a moment let’s assume are September only. Is there a possibility that these do not include ALL the CP approvals for the year thus far? I feel there could have possibly been 8-10K CP approvals this year. Thinking otherwise I do not feel it’s prudent to have left 19K for the last month, Aug just applied 3K, so potentially 22k was left for the Aug bulletin I feel they should have allocated a lot more for the Aug bulletin in that case. The scenario that Iam trying to outline maybe completely hypothetical just another possible scenario. Non inclusion of CP approvals may run contrary to the fact that demand data must include CP.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Also, does this mean that they are saving all these numbers for last month?

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Yes and something more as mentioned above.

Deb,

Here is the link to the passport renewal service at Indian Embassy (SFO): http://www.cgisf.org/contents/view/79. I am sure the DC one would have a separate link too. I renewed my passport through post (from the Indian Embassy embassy at SFO) and it took a couple of weeks. Some of my friends renewed theirs and the max it took for them was a month. Check out the link. You have all the required information there.

Sorry Q/Gurus,

This has deviated off the topic. Maybe this needs to be moved to a different thread (Indian Passport Renewals?) Aye? :)

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

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Go to their website, they must be having information. Houston Consulate website has detailed information and forms for renewing passport. Mine is expired and they say you can get in a day.

I agree. This is also very logical.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

T ,

VO may had numbers but hold on to it so he can blow PWMB , in case USCIS approves then in a month ( All we know they can't but VO doesn't have control over that ) and once put into demand he can't ignore them. So what he may did is limit supply for August. Now if he has 19k left for Sep , he can allocate 8 - 8.5 k needed for EB2 IC and rest for EB1 , EB2 Row etc. He could do same in August too but what if allocated all those 9k to India / China and EB1 and rest demand surge in Sep, then he end up applying cutoff date for those. while doing more spill over in Sep , here is what might happen. It will clear Eb2 IC and those 10k left over will go to Eb1 & rest , now if they run out of visas for them in last week of Sep VO don't need to worry since in new month they will have more supply. So date will not retro for those categories.

I think its a calculated move by DOS. Even USCIS can't spoil it. ( To spoil USCIS needs to show up with demand more than 15k for Eb1 & rest categories in Sep demand data ).

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I would wait until Sep to pass judgement on the source. DoS can't delay any move beyond September.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by leo07

With all due respect to this source-- the same source after talking to CO had predicted several months movement for August VB. If we go several pages back on this thread, you'll see it. ( source from 'unknown space station')

I was pumped up last night about this 19k left-over, but this morning I have a different feeling :)

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Why not just FeDEX it?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

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Thank you all for your replies. The link really helped as I good much of the needed info.

Q,
Since I will be going to Baltimore for work in August I thought of getting my passport also renewed then. My only question is that since I will be going there only for couple of days will I be able to get my new passport in hand if I personally handover all the documents in the embassy.

Sorry I don't want to digress from the topic here.

Thanks,
Deb

If they are only going to stamp passport then its its a few minutes affair. But if they will issue you new one then I am not sure. Honestly its not worth spending time physically visiting consulate. But you can try! At least don't walk in. Make a proper appt.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Thank you all for your replies. The link really helped as I good much of the needed info.

Q,
Since I will be going to Baltimore for work in August I thought of getting my passport also renewed then. My only question is that since I will be going there only for couple of days will I be able to get my new passport in hand if I personally handover all the documents in the embassy.

Sorry I don't want to digress from the topic here.

Thanks,
Deb

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

VO may had numbers but hold on to it so he can blow PWMB , in case USCIS approves then in a month ( All we know they can't but VO doesn't have control over that ) and once put into demand he can't ignore them. So what he may did is limit supply for August. Now if he has 19k left for Sep , he can allocate 8 - 8.5 k needed for EB2 IC and rest for EB1 , EB2 Row etc. He could do same in August too but what if allocated all those 9k to India / China and EB1 and rest demand surge in Sep, then he end up applying cutoff date for those. while doing more spill over in Sep , here is what might happen. It will clear Eb2 IC and those 10k left over will go to Eb1 & rest , now if they run out of visas for them in last week of Sep VO don't need to worry since in new month they will have more supply. So date will not retro for those categories.

I think its a calculated move by DOS. Even USCIS can't spoil it. ( To spoil USCIS needs to show up with demand more than 15k for Eb1 & rest categories in Sep demand data ).

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I must say this is very compelling argument, It's good if DOS/CIS are actually planning these things

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ct06511

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

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I too want to thank ct0651 for this information.

I think CO may have been extremely careful with his choice of words.

He would not confirm the 19k visas were for September alone, even when asked twice.

He said it :

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covers the published August number

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The only numbers that have been published for August are in the Demand Data. That is the position going into August (or at the end of July, if you prefer) when approx 10.5k spare visas are required to reach the end of the backlog for EB2-CI.

The original poster, who actually talked to CO, makes it clear that they do not know if it refers to the VB; they say (VB?).

The VB contains dates, not numbers.

So the 19k may still have to cover 2 months worth of demand for EB1-EB5, plus any remaining spillover (of which 2.6k appears to have been allocated in August).

Possibly, I have over analyzed it, but CO is generally very careful about the words he uses.

The jury is still out on this one - for me at least.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

If they are only going to stamp passport then its its a few minutes affair. But if they will issue you new one then I am not sure. Honestly its not worth spending time physically visiting consulate. But you can try! At least don't walk in. Make a proper appt.

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Q, interesting point... my wife applied for passport renewal but got her passport stamped with extension rather than getting a new passport... so is it ok get it extended through a stamp rather than a new PP?

Soggadu - it is totally ok to get it extended through the stamp. The occassion airport security officer will ask you to show the page with the stamp but immigration around the world know to look for the stamp.

Here is a test I would propose to validate this claim.

If 19K is for August and Sept. then VO issued 121-52 = 70K for May Jun Jul. = 140% approvals in 3 months compared to first 7 months.

So will trackitt approvals for all EB categories for those 3 months be 140% of first 7 months? Lets see.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I too want to thank ct0651 for this information.

I think CO may have been extremely careful with his choice of words.

He would not confirm the 19k visas were for September alone, even when asked twice.

He said it :



The only numbers that have been published for August are in the Demand Data. That is the position going into August (or at the end of July, if you prefer) when approx 10.5k spare visas are required to reach the end of the backlog for EB2-CI.

The original poster, who actually talked to CO, makes it clear that they do not know if it refers to the VB; they say (VB?).

The VB contains dates, not numbers.

So the 19k may still have to cover 2 months worth of demand for EB1-EB5, plus any remaining spillover (of which 2.6k appears to have been allocated in August).

Possibly, I have over analyzed it, but CO is generally very careful about the words he uses.

The jury is still out on this one - for me at least.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Soggadu - it is totally ok to get it extended through the stamp. The occassion airport security officer will ask you to show the page with the stamp but immigration around the world know to look for the stamp.

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awesome, you saved me a trip on to the busy streets of the york... thank you...

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Thank you all for your replies. The link really helped as I good much of the needed info.

Q,
Since I will be going to Baltimore for work in August I thought of getting my passport also renewed then. My only question is that since I will be going there only for couple of days will I be able to get my new passport in hand if I personally handover all the documents in the embassy.

Sorry I don't want to digress from the topic here.

Thanks,
Deb

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Talked to a friend who got extension done in DC 2 months ago.
He was saying if you drop it off, you need to pick it up. If you mail it ,you need to add $20 for return mail. You can't drop it off and ask them to mail or the other way around.
But you can double check with the consulate(who never answer your call and voicemail is always full and hence cant leave a message).

My friend dropped it off and had to go back after a month to pick it, so its not a one day job. He would suggest you mail it in, as Baltimore to DC drive is pretty hectic during morning/evening rushhour. With the cost of gas, driving back and forth is not feasible unless you plan to tour DC. And more importantly, if it is early August, you'll miss atleast 2-3 pages of postings on this thread while you are driving -- using phone (to read this thread etc) while driving is strictly prohibited in MD and DC. There is a 2 hr free street parking just across the consulate building, you should be able to read the signs beforehand using Google street view

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Q, interesting point... my wife applied for passport renewal but got her passport stamped with extension rather than getting a new passport... so is it ok get it extended through a stamp rather than a new PP?

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I have been to NY Consulate in person last week of January for Passport Renewal.. First of you have to know which zone/region you are.. For ex. OH, PA,NY, NJ address people should go to NY.

You can drop off your Passport and they will return passport by USPS Courier(by paying $20), within 10 business day you will receive surely. No need to go back again to collect unless you are willing to collect personally.

Thanks.