EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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10-28-2020, 10:55 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketfast

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.
10-28-2020, 10:55 AM
AceMan

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011
10-28-2020, 10:58 AM
rabp77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?

Rocket fast is right.

Reason is most eb3 movement has happened in the last 2 years. So people who filed in eb3 with pd in late 2009/early 2010 still have valid medical with USCIS. With eb2 there is a much higher likelyhoon of the medicals having expired, as many eb2 cases were filed in 2012.
10-28-2020, 11:08 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected
10-28-2020, 11:16 AM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.
10-28-2020, 11:40 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected

A lot of usage by Philippines, S. Korea etc. will be offset by low demand in EB3-ROW. I would keep an eye out on the perm applications being filed over the last few months as more and more companies are unwilling to commit long term with recession staring them right in the face.
10-28-2020, 11:45 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.

Unfortunately I am not able to find the source anymore for this. If someone has a credible information on this I would love to be wrong. But what I understood , every year the spillover moves from FB-EB and EB-FB ( only USCIS knows why ) . So if EB visa allotment of 261K is not reached this year the balance will go to FB as a spillover next year. Normally EB to FB spillover rarely happens as EB always comsumes 140K ( sometimes a couple thousand more even)
10-28-2020, 11:57 AM
rocketfast

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819
10-28-2020, 12:17 PM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketfast

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.
10-28-2020, 12:35 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

To my understanding only unallocated FB visas can flow to EB, not unallocated EBs which already went to FB. I will look for a source for that.
10-28-2020, 12:38 PM
rocketfast

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

The point that post is making is that, unused EBs don't make a change in total allocation numbers in FB. So for all practical purposes, total FB allocation is 226,000.
10-28-2020, 12:47 PM
2011Feb

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011Feb

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)
10-28-2020, 01:06 PM
2001USA

I-485 USCIS Prioritization

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS based on applicants with current FAD?
10-28-2020, 01:22 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011Feb

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)

Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.
10-28-2020, 01:38 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.

I would look at it the other way , If everyone were to send their Medicals then there will be further delays . If its not mandatory to send a doc to the USCIS then you might as well wait as sending more info delays things .
Honestly they need the Medicals only when the Final Action dates get closer and I hope they ask for them only when Final action dates are close by as Medicals can anywhere between 500-1000 dollars today . For a family of 4 that will be 4K and most companies don't pay for dependents .
In 2012 I paid $250 , in 2018 it was $550 , just for the doc to sign a few pages . My friend paid 950 last month in the Bay area.
10-28-2020, 01:48 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.

2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.

Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2
10-28-2020, 02:23 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.

Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.
10-28-2020, 02:33 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently
10-28-2020, 02:34 PM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

Seems to be in-line with my attorney's prediction that EB2 FAD will go forward by close to 6 + months. Let's hope so.
10-28-2020, 02:36 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.
10-28-2020, 02:40 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently

Consular applications are going to be so hard to predict compared to AOS because of Covid. Worldwide cases are only ramping up now so I don't know what will prompt them to open up consulates.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
10-28-2020, 02:53 PM
chhablsa

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)
10-28-2020, 03:03 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by chhablsa

Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)

I think the numbers are there this fiscal, its all about USCIS having a strategy on how to allocate them and when to do it. EB2-I cases until May-2010 are clearly the low hanging fruits that can be cleared off right away. Also, remember that interviews could be waived too for many straightforward cases due to COVID. All in all, if you have a PD within the the first half of 2010 I would say you are sitting pretty and could even get greened by the Q1 of this fiscal. By then, the pipeline for H2 of 2010 should begin taking shape too. Also, if JB wins there is a possibility that the interviews for EB GC might be made optional based on case by case. Those are the tailwinds I see that could reduce the wastage of visas by a large extent. We all know what the headwinds are so tried pointing out the brighter side possibilities here.
10-28-2020, 03:05 PM
AceMan

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.
10-28-2020, 03:09 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.
10-28-2020, 03:10 PM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

I don't think you should be astonished by anything this admin throws at you. I would not be astonished if they decided to release Nov visa bulletin in Dec. Remember when a few folks got H1 approvals with backdated dates?
10-28-2020, 03:17 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.
10-28-2020, 03:22 PM
2011Feb

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011Feb

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.

checks were cleared on 21st. So it took a week to receive the receipt after checks en cashed.
10-28-2020, 03:23 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.

The possibility of not supporting filing dates any more for the month of November?
10-28-2020, 03:34 PM
richie.rich

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.

I have a feeling that they want to wait till last minute. If they release early, Applicants will start or stop downgrading. If they release the dates tomorrow evening or Friday, flow will be normal.
10-28-2020, 03:37 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

The possibility of not supporting filing dates any more for the month of November?

I think USCIS will keep the filing dates and honor them in November. After all, why not for more fees when they already let ppl. apply for the 485 and associated benefits by filing in October? I don't see any practical incentive for them to stop it now. I won't be surprised if they honor filing dates in December too. However, I will be surprised if they further advance filing dates within Q1 though.
10-28-2020, 03:39 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by richie.rich

I have a feeling that they want to wait till last minute. If they release early, Applicants will start or stop downgrading. If they release the dates tomorrow evening or Friday, flow will be normal.

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.
10-28-2020, 03:48 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

Noone has clearly states anything.. even the HK language reason is speculation. Anyways.. what else do we have other than speculating delay of visa bulletin ? Life ? Ha ha
10-28-2020, 03:56 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

how much in advance does USCIS send RFEs for the Final Action dates ? I am Dec 2009 and have not received any RFEs.
Do they need the dates to be current before sending the RFEs ?
10-28-2020, 03:56 PM
rabp77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

Zenzone, AILA statement as I read it referred to a generic dispute with language. It did not specifically say it was with regard to HK. HK Eo was passed in July. What the language dispute was about is still not completely certain, right ? Did I miss something?
10-28-2020, 03:57 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Noone has clearly states anything.. even the HK language reason is speculation. Anyways.. what else do we have other than speculating delay of visa bulletin ? Life ? Ha ha

Haha peace!
10-28-2020, 04:02 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011Feb

checks were cleared on 21st. So it took a week to receive the receipt after checks en cashed.

Thank you !
10-28-2020, 05:16 PM
iamdeb

Just digressing away from the politics....which educational firm/agency's services do you guys recommend for Foreign Academic Equivalency Evaluation...Thanks!
10-28-2020, 06:00 PM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?
10-28-2020, 07:05 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

I guess because for ‘pure’ EB3 the I-140 is approved in Oct 2020 ; all downgrades are assumed to be applied now in regular processing .
In practice downgraded EB3 already approved would be the same as ‘pure’ EB3

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