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Thanks spec...,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I was just wondering whether you missed it or looked at it.. now I know you looked at it I will be patient...
this is one case number where its not working A-07215-xxxxx this has a priority date of 23 May 2008 (verified with I-140) but with your formulae it coming as Aug 3rd 2007 with this formulae =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))
very nicely said my friend. I like the way you explained it. I am in Nov'08 and i was expecting 2 more years to get my dates current. Who know what changes the movement going forward, its better be pessimist some times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Deepak
The formula is true only if the online perm application is filled up and submitted on the same day by the respective attorney. In your friend's case, the attorney might have pressed the submit button after some days( even months) .
The case number( first five digits ) is the day of the respective year . For example today is 11285 ( 285th day of 2011) , if your and your friend's attorney prepares the perm application online on the same day but submits them 1 month apart, then the first five digits of your A# will be the same.
But the Priority dates will be different .
Note: I replied to your first post.
Yes, both of you are kind of correct. You never know.
Frankly, I think if DOS really wants to move dates to build inventory, they can just do that without any excuses. CO does not want to do excess and continue to be conservative so that no eyes are raised. His two main goals are: 1. Utilize all visas 2. Categories marked current should be honored and continue to remain current (this automatically implies fair allocation of SO, not doing quarterly SO so that any surprise demand later on does not lead to imposing cut off dates on current categories).
Date movement has nothing to do with actual GC issuance. Also if people call senators and open SR etc, they can always be informed, your file is awaiting a visa number.
It can go either way in next VB, I agree. Both sides can put forth some arguments and interpreations of CO's statement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
I agree with the result. As Kanmani, said, the Case No. is generated when the attorney first creates the case, not when it is submitted. It seems an exceptionally big gap, so perhaps it was created before even the PWD request was submitted, or they edited a previously created case which was not going to be submitted.Quote:
Originally Posted by dce.deepak
A mystery.
Ok this brings up a interesting statistics as to how many such cases exist? I think on border months(Nov-feb) there is higher possibility. Not sure if affects any statistics because it will cancel out. right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Exactly right and there has been a discussion previously.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Anecdotally, the numbers aren't huge, but over the year, any effect is cancelled out.
Spec/Q -Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Not to spam your thread, but if one of the guru's can fill the table that I have requested couple of days back, it would answer the ever prevalent - 'WHEN WILL I BE CURRENT' question for every one visiting the forum:
PD By Quarter and Year | Earliest possible Date for 485 | Definitely possible Date for 485
Quarter 1 2008
Quarter 2 2008
Quarter 3 2008
Quarter 4 2008
Quarter 1 2009
Quarter 2 2009
Quarter 3 2009
Quarter 4 2009
Quarter 1 2010
Quarter 2 2010
Quarter 3 2010
Quarter 4 2010
Quarter 1 2011
Quarter 2 2011
Quarter 3 2011
Also, if you guys could fill this table once, I will reply to all the people who ask this question and point them to the correct post.
girish,
I'll be honest and say I won't be doing it.
Unless you can get a brain dump from CO, it is impossible to even speculate about such small time periods.
Also, PERM Certifications have still appeared in significant numbers in FY2011 Q1-Q3 for PDs in 2008, let alone later years. CY2011 is nowhere near complete.
It is a stretch even to publish the summary I already have and I have some misgivings about even doing that.
I suspect the lack of a response from anyone else means they have the same misgivings.
Why don't you try and put it together yourself based on Spec's spreadsheet here :http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011Quote:
Originally Posted by girish989
Your guess will be as good as anybody else's. If there's something which nobody knows it is how will CO move the dates. He's proved and continues to prove quite a few people wrong already. I think in essence, it's a futile effort.
Spec's sheet is the clearest indication for anyone to get an idea. You can use a algorithm based on best case porting - 12 months for your "Earliest Possible Date" and worst case porting - 5 months for your "Latest Possible Date". But we are in unknown territory when it comes to 485. After 4 years, it's only in the past month, that they restarted taking new 485 inventory(except PWMB). So noone knows what strategy he has in his mind. It'll need at least a few months of VB's to understand how he intends to do the buildup.
APPLICATIONS FOR IMMIGRATION BENEFITS
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...s-2011-aug.pdf
plus there is some other data report linked on latest oh law firm breaking news.
I am yet to read the above pdf properly, but just put the link and info for everyone to see in meanwhile.
the line:
WHAT IT SHOWS: Immigration application receipts decreased 27 percent compared to the number received in August 2010. August 2011 approvals decreased by 28 percent, denials decreased by 17 percent, and pending increased less than 3% compared to August 2010.
is very important. let's delve on this a bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
My feeling is that the report looks good for us.
I am assuming they are referring to entire universe of ways one can get a green card.
It is showing that:
a. Incoming applications are lesser than last year
b. Approvals are lesser than last year, but denials have also decreased, so maybe balances out a bit. EB I-485 I think though, has very less denials anyways, so less approvals might be indicating less approvals in family based and other ways of getting in.
c. There is still lot of pending stuff, and seems to me, they have hit a plateau. They either need some funding and hire of extra resources, else they are not going to do away with backlog very soon. I will say there will be fee increases for sure this year it seems. As well as the premium processing for EB1C category in next year planned, looks certain, they need money to process backlog.
d. They have begun to start releasing data for immigration for FY 2011 !
Basically it confirms why there was huge SOFAD last year.
what else, chime in with your thoughts. or correct/enhance mine. I am really looking forward to someone saying this is good news, and we should not fear the 25k SOFAD mark, and CO will move dates a lot. This is for FY 2011 but I think when predicting future, CO has to look at this trend of last year.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
I-485 performance data
Data as of August 31, 2011
Published October 12, 2011
so must be just yesterday.
------------
updates: I think the I-485 Indo Chinese is to be ignored, it's not us, it's some special way of getting GC, just google I-485 indo chinese and you will see. So only I-485 Employment Based applies to us.
It just for field offices, not for main centers like Texas, Nebraska etc. I don't this report is much useful, let's see if Spec or anyone else finds any use.
Sir, i defer with respect. But i think there is already lots of information on the first page and also on Facts thread which can help a lot of people to determine where things stand. Even if the format you suggested is filled (with all the effort by Guru's) our new friends still ask question (when am i current?) in the thread becasue its easy to get answer (no offense to anyone). My suggestion would be to have a link in the Signature or somewhere (if it helps)..Quote:
Originally Posted by girish989
Folks, what impact do you think the current build-up of demand for EB2-I&C will have on I-485 processing time esp. EB2-ROW. Will it add a couple of months permanently? 6 months? This may result in a one time benefit for EB2-I&C this year as EB2-ROW consumption will drop because of processing delays (Same will be the case with EB1 too). From next year, this delay will be built-in and would continue to hold. This also means new I-485 filers from EB2-I&C will see longer processing times of their cases than current processing times.
kd2008, until now USCIS had a huge pre-adjudicated inventory already, and now they have to build up inventory each year up-front. So I don't see any holes in your argument. It is after all additional work for them to do. More reason why they should move dates early on and not hang tight till ending stages.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I agree with kd2008 that EB2ROW could take some hit owing to the EB2IC movement. Not sure EB2IC would face any additional delays though. Because when you have X number of applications in a bucket with same/similar PDs, not sure IF CIS would differentiate them based on the country-limits. If they DO they will certainly have to retrogress the dates, following month. There is definitely a huge juggling-task though for a month or two for CIS.
I said month or two because, by the time additional EB2IC 485's become eligible for a visa number, it could be Jan/Feb and they will have enough visas from first two quarters and have a better understanding of number-progression for September 2012.
On a completely different topic from predictions: Does any one know if the A# assigned during I-140 stage would remain same all the way to GC? ( Like on other applications as well)
Simple answer: yes. Some of us who have multiple I-140s have different A#s, but I believe when you apply for the I485 all your numbers are merged into the number on the I-140 with the PD that you're using (earliest PD).Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Unlike H1b, I-140 with limited service centres, the I-485 applications are submitted to the Field offices, get pre-adjudicated there and sent to National Service centre. isn't?
Am I missing any thing?
If I am correct, then there are roughly 86 field offices to handle the pile of applications, so there wont be any notable delay .( my opinion but I really dont know )
Can someone please respond to this?
Based on website if someone had TB in past the skin test will always show positive. Will chest x-ray also show results positive?
What are the options in such cases.
Murthy's Recommendations: Be Prepared
"Most importantly, individuals who have priority dates that will become current in November must take steps toward preparing their cases for filing. Others, whose priority dates are not yet current but are close to the new cutoff date, may want to begin gathering all the documents and information needed for their I-485 filings. This will avoid unnecessary delays and will enable their cases to be filed in the first month that the priority date is available"
source : http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html
Spec
I was trying to use an alternative calculation for the combined effect of the three multipliers that you use in calculations (Eb2/Total Perm, I-140 approval rate, Dependent ratio). The product for your multipliers is close to 0.9 (that Veni observed can be approximated with 1).
I took the actual EB2 visas issued for India and China from annual reports of visa office. If we take the total visas approved for Eb2-I and Eb2-C from 2003 - 2010 and divide them by corresponding total PERMs for India and China from June2002-May2006 then we can get an approximation of the combined multiplier. The overall assumption is that all the visas issued between 2003 to 2010 belong to priority dates between June 2002 to May 2006. I picked June 2002 to allow for 6 months approval time and May 2006 was the ending priority date for 2010. Here are my questions/issues
1. Does the approach seem reasonable or do you see some obvious flaws.
2. I was able to get the visas issued from the DOS site. For Perm i used the data provided by you in Facts and Data section but it only has complete data for 2007 onwards so i am missing 2002 to 2006.
3. The actual EB2-I visas issued in 2004, 2005 and 2008 are in 14-16K but they are only 3719 and 6203 in 2006 and 2007 which didn't seem right.
If you see value in doing this i can go ahead with the calculations and we can see how much this multiplier differs from 0.9.
Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here.
Hope it helps someone.
gc0907 kudos to you. A lot of people go through medicals but very few people write it down so well for others!
Why don't you create a new thread in the same location as vaccination. You can either reproduce the whole article or simply include the link.
I think that will keep it visible forever and help a lot of people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
This is good information. Thank you for taking the time to do this.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
you rock bud... very helpfulQuote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
hey tackle... like your avatar... very colorful...
Ghostwriter.... did the GC wait make you like this? just wondering, rest in peace bro...abb GC ka kya karna... kidding...ur avatar is spooky dude, right in time for halloween....
aur Nishant and others... getting ready to get electrocuted? .....
Thanks for putting it together, It would help somebody, Mine started with blood test(titer) to determine what vaccines are already present and tetanus shot and PPD .Waiting for results, have appointment with Doc(list on USCIS website for my zipcode) on Tuesday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
I checked mitbbs today. A Chinese EB2 submitted his/her case on August 1st and already got his/her GC in hand! Only 2 and half months for PWMB! It's so fast!
This is his/her progress:
8/1 RD
9/26 FP
10/11 AP
10/13 485
Roughly how many approvals do you see in mitbbs for EB2-C in the month of Oct. There are around 50+ approvals for EB2-I in trackitt so far in this month.
gc0907
Thanks a ton for taking the time to document this very well and it really helps plan things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
Today nytimes published an article indicating the surge in the number of students now pursuing bachelor degrees in usa from India.Also reflects the trend for master's too. Might help in some assumptions in SOFAD for later years .
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/wo...ed-states.html
I also know a couple of families who were in April third-last week 2007, they too got theirs this week. It's raining GCs it seems.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Not sure if this was discussed in the calculations.. but noticed this in some other thread.. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf ... the numbers are bit weird.. Gurus anyone help decipher the data from this pdf ..
I think the numbers are incorrect. I had asked this question at Ron Gotcher's forum (and here as well). At Ron's forum everyone agreed that the stats are not correct (http://www.immigration-information.c...-2011-a-15331/)Quote:
Originally Posted by mrperfect
I will take that as a compliment :). It is based on the movie GhostWriter, watched recently and liked it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:Quote:
Originally Posted by girish989
1. Everyone up to 12/31/07 gets GC in FY 2012
2. 19,400 SOFAD (includes porting) + 5,600 EB2 IC quota = 25,000 GC / year
-- 2a Approx. 2,000 applications / month or 6,500 / quarter or 12,500 / half year to come up with monthly breakdown
3. Every PERM application requires 1.15 visa numbers at I485 stage using the calculations below:
-- 3a EB2 IC is 70% of total IC PERM (see my other posts for the reason)
-- 3b ~80% I140 conversion rate (CM's analysis http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html based on http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html)
-- 3c 2.05 visa numbers used by every I485 applicant
-- 3d 1 Perm Application = 0.7*0.8*2.05 = 1.15 I-485 visa numbers
4. All PERM applications as of 3/31/2011 have been completed (PERM data as of 6/30/11). Reasonable assumption since DoL have improved their process and almost all PERM applications are decided within 60 days
5. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (USCIS processing time) from Expected Month column to get an approximation of when you will be current. You can subtract additional time if you think USCIS will be slower.
Petition Date|IC Perm Cases|Visa# Reqd|Expected Visa Available|Expected Month
2007-11-----|2434-----------|2794-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-08
2007-12-----|2247-----------|2580-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-09
2008-01-----|2900-----------|3329-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-10
2008-02-----|2733-----------|3137-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-12
2008-03-----|2244-----------|2576-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-02
2008-04-----|2716-----------|3118-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-03
2008-05-----|2513-----------|2885-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-05
2008-06-----|2142-----------|2459-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-06
2008-07-----|2046-----------|2349-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-07
2008-08-----|2029-----------|2329-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-08
2008-09-----|1891-----------|2171-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-09
2008-10-----|2389-----------|2743-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-10
2008-11-----|1985-----------|2279-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-11
2008-12-----|2069-----------|2375-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-01
2009-01-----|2065-----------|2371-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-02
2009-02-----|1766-----------|2027-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-03
2009-03-----|1794-----------|2060-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-04
2009-04-----|1839-----------|2111-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-05
2009-05-----|1451-----------|1666-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-06
2009-06-----|1462-----------|1678-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-07
2009-07-----|1287-----------|1477-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-08-----|1247-----------|1432-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-09-----|1489-----------|1709-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-10-----|1502-----------|1724-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-11-----|1359-----------|1560-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2009-12-----|1479-----------|1698-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2010-01-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-11
2010-02-----|1318-----------|1513-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-12
2010-03-----|1734-----------|1991-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-01
2010-04-----|1610-----------|1848-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-02
2010-05-----|1672-----------|1919-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-03
2010-06-----|2035-----------|2336-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-04
2010-07-----|1761-----------|2022-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-06
2010-08-----|2273-----------|2609-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-07
2010-09-----|2264-----------|2599-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-08
2010-10-----|2445-----------|2807-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-09
2010-11-----|2507-----------|2878-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-10
2010-12-----|3207-----------|3682-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-11
2011-01-----|2782-----------|3194-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-01
2011-02-----|2950-----------|3387-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-03
2011-03-----|2823-----------|3241-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-04
2011-04-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-06
2011-05-----|0005-----------|0006-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
2011-06-----|0001-----------|0001-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
Seems something is missing as filing of 485 for Feb 08 is 09/2012, i think it will be by May 2012
[QUOTE=immi2910;11228]Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:
[QUOTE=cbpds1;11229]Seems something is missing as filing of 485 for Feb 08 is 09/2012, i think it will be by May 2012
I just updated my definitions. What I meant was when the visa numbers would be available. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (or longer for USCIS processing times) to get an approximation of when the date will be current.Quote:
Originally Posted by immi2910