EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

07-15-2021, 10:23 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by sling10

I am just trying to avoid the mad rush there will be post the release of the October bulletin in September. I don't want to end up in a situation where in I do not get an appointment for 2-3 weeks. I want to try and submit the application in the 1st week of October.

I meant you can take an appointment now for a date in September, I get the fact that you do not want to run into the traffic in September.
07-15-2021, 10:44 AM
sling10

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

I meant you can take an appointment now for a date in September, I get the fact that you do not want to run into the traffic in September.

Ok, that works too.
07-15-2021, 11:21 AM
krisswaves

Quote:

Originally Posted by insane.yogi

Hello - My priority date is Oct 2011 in EB2 and am current in FAD EB3 since last month. Is there any benefit in downgrading now to apply in EB3? Dont expect much progress in Sept bulletin. Also, looking to avoid the mad rush in Oct. looking forward to your opinions. Thanks.

I am in the same situation - PD Aug-2011 in EB2, will have to wait until Oct21 bulletin and decide, with all potential SO changes/retrogression, i am hoping i will be still eligible to apply for 485 either in EB2 or EB3 with downgrade.
07-15-2021, 11:30 AM
sling10

Quote:

Originally Posted by krisswaves

I am in the same situation - PD Aug-2011 in EB2, will have to wait until Oct21 bulletin and decide, with all potential SO changes/retrogression, i am hoping i will be still eligible to apply for 485 either in EB2 or EB3 with downgrade.

My PD is Nov 4th 2011 EB2 and I cannot downgrade because my employer did not allow that in Oct 2020. But, If you are thinking about downgrading, shouldn't you be starting the downgrade process right now rather than waiting till the Oct bulletin is out ?
07-15-2021, 11:44 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by krisswaves

I am in the same situation - PD Aug-2011 in EB2, will have to wait until Oct21 bulletin and decide, with all potential SO changes/retrogression, i am hoping i will be still eligible to apply for 485 either in EB2 or EB3 with downgrade.

Regardless of what happens with any proposed SO change, I would estimate that you should be current for filing in October.
07-15-2021, 12:20 PM
rohanvus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

Regardless of what happens with any proposed SO change, I would estimate that you should be current for filing in October.

Mine is Dec 2,2011 . Struggling with EB3 downgrade , so only hope is filing under EB2
Do you see EB2 FAD move in 2022 to cover Dec 2011 ? I dont think USCIS will honor DOF
07-15-2021, 12:26 PM
sling10

Quote:

Originally Posted by rohanvus

Mine is Dec 2,2011 . Struggling with EB3 downgrade , so only hope is filing under EB2
Do you see EB2 FAD move in 2022 to cover Dec 2011 ? I dont think USCIS will honor DOF

Don't they honor the DOF dates at the start of the fiscal year for the first couple of months ? And only move the DOF dates ahead in October, so you date of Dec 2,2011 should be covered.
07-15-2021, 12:32 PM
rohanvus

Quote:

Originally Posted by sling10

Don't they honor the DOF dates at the start of the fiscal year for the first couple of months ?

Last year they did but will they do so again ,no idea . Infact it seems USCIS has been rejecting DOF for many years and only last year (for few months) they accepted it . I could be wrong here , but DOF is something that USCIS tends to ignore most of the time
07-15-2021, 01:03 PM
Djidondon

Quote:

Originally Posted by sling10

Don't they honor the DOF dates at the start of the fiscal year for the first couple of months ? And only move the DOF dates ahead in October, so you date of Dec 2,2011 should be covered.

How will DOS & USCIS deal with moving DOF for EB3I and EB2I when downgrade applicants having I-140 approved in EB3I as well. Does that cause confusion in moving DOF dates for DOS because applicants now have their I-140s in both EB2I and EB3I together. Any idea how will DOS deal with
It?
07-15-2021, 02:16 PM
insane.yogi

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

If I were in your shoes, I would downgrade. Or at least try and get my i140 approved in EB3 and will move to file AOS if VB is moving against me. There is an expectation that there will be massive retrogression in EB3 once the music stops. There will be a retrogression for sure. But IMO people within a year of May 15, 2011 (i.e. till May 15, 2012) should be in a safer zone. They may get their GC sooner or about the same time as EB2 folks (provided your i140 is approved at the earliest). There probably are very little downgrades till May 15, 2011. I will keep the numbers to less than 20% of the original EB2 filers. Plus those downgrades probably happened in Oct, Nov and Dec. No one with those dates is going to attempt to downgrade today. The I140 numbers in 2010 and 2011 are 6682 and 6929. Downgrades will mainly come into picture post May, 2011 and even then it's about 40% of the people who downgraded based on the available data points. As the PDs approach 2013 and 2014 we run into the situation where you may get EADs faster in EB3 but GCs sooner in EB2 if you downgraded today. If the new amendment does NOT pass, which is kind of my opinion at this time then there will be spillover from FB to EB in FY2023 as well. It may not be in the range of 150K, but I expect it to be in the range of 50-80K. For the spillover not to happen the entire Globe needs to go back to pre-pandemic levels by Dec 2021. This way even if a quarter is affected then DOS can cover the slack in the next 3 quarters. However if 2 quarters are affected (i.e. we do not get back to pre pandemic levels by March 2022) which is highly likely according to me, there is no way DOS can cover those numbers in the time remaining. Compare that to EB applications, for USCIS times to improve only US needs to go back to pre-pandemic levels. ROW does not affect AOS processing times.

Thanks for your reply! honestly thats where my thought process is going i.e. to file in 485 as soon as possible and get a foot in the door.
07-15-2021, 03:07 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djidondon

How will DOS & USCIS deal with moving DOF for EB3I and EB2I when downgrade applicants having I-140 approved in EB3I as well. Does that cause confusion in moving DOF dates for DOS because applicants now have their I-140s in both EB2I and EB3I together. Any idea how will DOS deal with
It?

This may be against logic. I have spent many years trying to figure out immigration and losing my hair. The uncertainty and chaos works very well in favor of backlogged Indians. The EB3 dates are still moving because USCIS has not processed enough I-140 downgrades to provide input to CO. Once enough I-140 forms are approved, they will figure out exactly how many are in EB3 and EB2. Then the dates will stop moving that aggressively. In this case, EB3 is benefitting. Had the USCIS not created the dual dates during Pres. BO, everyone will be FA current now. There are simply not enough GCs to feed the backlog. They have to take it from one group to feed the other.

The whole pandemic has created a good opportunity to prevent ageing out of some kids. Even if they don?t approve GCs, moving the FA dates forward benefits some parents and kids. Even though there is law and rule book, DOS has enough wiggle room to claim that they are following the law. So don?t think too much about what they will do. When a pro-immigrant admin is in power, DOS / CO will most likely interpret law and make VB bulletins in favor of immigrants. Had the anti-immigrant admin continued to stay in power, CO would have provided enough reasons for why VB movements are not happening or slowly happening.

So make hay while the sun is shining.
07-15-2021, 03:27 PM
sling10

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

This may be against logic. I have spent many years trying to figure out immigration and losing my hair. The uncertainty and chaos works very well in favor of backlogged Indians. The EB3 dates are still moving because USCIS has not processed enough I-140 downgrades to provide input to CO. Once enough I-140 forms are approved, they will figure out exactly how many are in EB3 and EB2. Then the dates will stop moving that aggressively. In this case, EB3 is benefitting. Had the USCIS not created the dual dates during Pres. BO, everyone will be FA current now. There are simply not enough GCs to feed the backlog. They have to take it from one group to feed the other.

The whole pandemic has created a good opportunity to prevent ageing out of some kids. Even if they don?t approve GCs, moving the FA dates forward benefits some parents and kids. Even though there is law and rule book, DOS has enough wiggle room to claim that they are following the law. So don?t think too much about what they will do. When a pro-immigrant admin is in power, DOS / CO will most likely interpret law and make VB bulletins in favor of immigrants. Had the anti-immigrant admin continued to stay in power, CO would have provided enough reasons for why VB movements are not happening or slowly happening.

So make hay while the sun is shining.

Idliman - Do you feel that the FAD for EB2 will be stuck on June 1 2011 for some time now even after the October visa bulletin ? I mean, the DOF will move but not the FAD for EB2 ?

With everything that's happening, will I at least be able to file 485 in October with a PD of Nov 4 2011 - EB2 ?
07-15-2021, 04:02 PM
Djidondon

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

This may be against logic. I have spent many years trying to figure out immigration and losing my hair. The uncertainty and chaos works very well in favor of backlogged Indians. The EB3 dates are still moving because USCIS has not processed enough I-140 downgrades to provide input to CO. Once enough I-140 forms are approved, they will figure out exactly how many are in EB3 and EB2. Then the dates will stop moving that aggressively. In this case, EB3 is benefitting. Had the USCIS not created the dual dates during Pres. BO, everyone will be FA current now. There are simply not enough GCs to feed the backlog. They have to take it from one group to feed the other.

The whole pandemic has created a good opportunity to prevent ageing out of some kids. Even if they don?t approve GCs, moving the FA dates forward benefits some parents and kids. Even though there is law and rule book, DOS has enough wiggle room to claim that they are following the law. So don?t think too much about what they will do. When a pro-immigrant admin is in power, DOS / CO will most likely interpret law and make VB bulletins in favor of immigrants. Had the anti-immigrant admin continued to stay in power, CO would have provided enough reasons for why VB movements are not happening or slowly happening.

So make hay while the sun is shining.

Idliman,
Good that you have some hair, I?m now balding though my PD is Nov 2016 and desperately waiting to see if my PD to become current in DOF chart for Oct 2021 VB so that I can file AOS and live rest of the life with GC EAD. Do you see any chances that to happen as the I-140 downgrade approvals are very now as of now.
07-15-2021, 04:14 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djidondon

Idliman,
Good that you have some hair, I?m now balding though my PD is Nov 2016 and desperately waiting to see if my PD to become current in DOF chart for Oct 2021 VB so that I can file AOS and live rest of the life with GC EAD. Do you see any chances that to happen as the I-140 downgrade approvals are very now as of now.

IMO, Nov 2016 PD is a tall ask for filing either in EB2 or EB3 come this Oct. I know its not something you would like to hear.
07-15-2021, 04:20 PM
Djidondon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

IMO, Nov 2016 PD is a tall ask for filing either in EB2 or EB3 come this Oct. I know its not something you would like to hear.

Is that because spillover visa numbers have to be preserved for all the people whoever applied for the I-485 by now ? is that a defined law that has to be followed and does that impact the DOF movement for EB3I ?
or does spill over numbers have to be only preserved for the applicants who are documentarily qualified to get the GC and that they are current by now?
07-15-2021, 04:29 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djidondon

Is that because spillover visa numbers have to be preserved for all the people whoever applied for the I-485 by now ? is that a defined law that has to be followed and does that impact the DOF movement for EB3I ?
or does spill over numbers have to be only preserved for the applicants who are documentarily qualified to get the GC and that they are current by now?

Yes. Part of the consideration is demand vs. supply, however, if the current SO law applies (which I expect to be) and the downgrade demand has not yet materialized you might see the DOF reaching late 2015 for EB3 in OCT'21, IMO. Whether such PDs will actually get the GC by the end of next fiscal is an altogether a different ask and I would say its pretty improbable.
07-15-2021, 04:38 PM
rohanvus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

Yes. Part of the consideration is demand vs. supply, however, if the current SO law applies (which I expect to be) and the downgrade demand has not yet materialized you might see the DOF reaching late 2015 for EB3 in OCT'21, IMO. Whether such PDs will actually get the GC by the end of next fiscal is an altogether a different ask and I would say its pretty improbable.

Say Meng amendment gets approved , in such a case do you see any movement in EB2 FAD or DOF in coming October ? In other words , if Meng?s amendment wins then does that mean EB2 will be stuck where it is right now for many years to come or do you see any movement in EB2 this October to at say till end of Dec 2011 ?
07-15-2021, 05:00 PM
Djidondon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

Yes. Part of the consideration is demand vs. supply, however, if the current SO law applies (which I expect to be) and the downgrade demand has not yet materialized you might see the DOF reaching late 2015 for EB3 in OCT'21, IMO. Whether such PDs will actually get the GC by the end of next fiscal is an altogether a different ask and I would say its pretty improbable.

What if the EB3I downgrade I-140 approvals are low ,CO might get the data only up to end of August or first week of september 2021 on the downgrade approved numbers from NVC where the approval rate is already low as of now, the I-485 inventory for EB3I would probably be less due to low approvals and does that not move the EB3I dates until Dec 20l6 in DOF ?
07-15-2021, 05:18 PM
rsnake

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djidondon

Is that because spillover visa numbers have to be preserved for all the people whoever applied for the I-485 by now ? is that a defined law that has to be followed and does that impact the DOF movement for EB3I ?
or does spill over numbers have to be only preserved for the applicants who are documentarily qualified to get the GC and that they are current by now?

The math is simple. New visa numbers(Z) for India in the new fiscal year will be applied to those already waiting for 485 to be approved(X) plus a number of new applicants (Y). If visa wastage is high, X will be higher by the same amount, since Charlie calculated last year assuming no visa wastage, and they still don't have a GC in Oct 2021. In that case Y will have to be lower by the same amount, so the dates will not advance by as much. Spillover numbers are just added to the overall pool Z, there is no special allocation for them.
07-15-2021, 05:54 PM
Djidondon

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsnake

The math is simple. New visa numbers(Z) for India in the new fiscal year will be applied to those already waiting for 485 to be approved(X) plus a number of new applicants (Y). If visa wastage is high, X will be higher by the same amount, since Charlie calculated last year assuming no visa wastage, and they still don't have a GC in Oct 2021. In that case Y will have to be lower by the same amount, so the dates will not advance by as much. Spillover numbers are just added to the overall pool Z, there is no special allocation for them.

Well quoted, I think there is special allocation for the Spillovers to EB2I and EB3I and that might be the reason for EB2I final action dates to not move now for August VB 2021 as there are already enough applicants for the available visa numbers in EB2I. EB3I still have visa numbers from spillover to be allocated to the applicants and the final action dates are moving?

I assume the I-485 inventory for EB3I will be low by sep 2021 as the downgrade I-140s are majority pending and they are still counted under EB2I unless they are approved in EB3I and USCIS is not processing most of the PP for I-140 as well. This might move the EB3I DOF beyond Dec 2016 or 2017 in EB3I are my thoughts. When the Spillover comes to the country Quota EB2I might still be very slow as majority of downgrade applicants are still considered under EB2I and EB3I DOF to the Mars.
07-15-2021, 07:49 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djidondon

Well quoted, I think there is special allocation for the Spillovers to EB2I and EB3I and that might be the reason for EB2I final action dates to not move now for August VB 2021 as there are already enough applicants for the available visa numbers in EB2I. EB3I still have visa numbers from spillover to be allocated to the applicants and the final action dates are moving?

I assume the I-485 inventory for EB3I will be low by sep 2021 as the downgrade I-140s are majority pending and they are still counted under EB2I unless they are approved in EB3I and USCIS is not processing most of the PP for I-140 as well. This might move the EB3I DOF beyond Dec 2016 or 2017 in EB3I are my thoughts. When the Spillover comes to the country Quota EB2I might still be very slow as majority of downgrade applicants are still considered under EB2I and EB3I DOF to the Mars.

No harm in being hopeful. CO already spoke about the EB2 downgrade wave hitting him soon and he is getting cautious. October is a wildcard right now and it would probably take until September for clarity to emerge.
07-15-2021, 08:16 PM
beckyjam

Experts, I cant downgrade to Eb3. Would EB2 , Feb 13th, 2012 Priority date be current in October 2021?
07-15-2021, 09:47 PM
freedomseeker

Hello Experts,

I have been a silent spectator of this forum and I thank you all for the wealth of knowledge that you folks bring in here.

I have an approved I-140 with the Priority-Date of Aug-2011 from Employer-A. I moved to Employer-B in the mid of 2019 with the promise from them that my PERM will be started after a few months of employment. With all kind of the delays from the employer and the law-firm added with the COVID slowness, at-last I was able to get my PERM filed (for my Job-Position with 7 to 9 years of experience) by my current employer (Employer B) in this year March (03/2021). I am awaiting for the PERM approval in a month or two, should there be no any issues to my application from the DOL processing side.

During the time of my I140 filing, if the EB2 dates have not reached my Priority-Date and if the EB3 dates stay as they are now, I will NOT be eligible to file my I140 in the EB2 category and cn file ONLY in EB3 category. However if there were a situation in which my Priority-Date is current in both EB2 and EB3 at the time of my I140 filing which could be sometime in September or October this year, can you please clarify the following queries in such a situation?

1. Is it right that the porting of the Priority-Date from approved I-140 with the old employer happens ONLY in the I-140 filing stage with the new employer?

2. With my case being a Fresh-I140 one (NOT a I-140 downgrade) and if I do concurrent filing of Fresh-I140-PP & I-485, What would be the right category for me to file my I-140 (EB2 or EB3 - ?) to get the GC sooner?

3. I believe I should be able to get my fresh I-140 approved under PP in the 15 days timeframe unless any RFE kicks in. Also I could see comments from some of the experts in this forum that the EB3 filers with downgraded EB2 I-140 in/around my Priority-Date (Aug-2011) tend to get EAD/AP sooner with EB3 and GC sooner with EB2. How does that apply to my case with concurrent filing of fresh I140-PP and I-485?

4. With which category (EB2 or EB3 - ?), can I get the GC sooner if the dates happen to retrogress in the period Oct21-Sep22 or the year after?

5. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB2 if the new ammendment passes?

6. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB3 if the new ammendment passes?

7. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB2 if the new ammendment does NOT pass which allows the FB to EB spillover to happen next year?

8. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB3 if the new ammendment does NOT pass which allows the FB to EB spillover to happen next year?

Regrets for the long content and help me with your expert inputs. Thank you!!
07-15-2021, 11:09 PM
Djidondon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

No harm in being hopeful. CO already spoke about the EB2 downgrade wave hitting him soon and he is getting cautious. October is a wildcard right now and it would probably take until September for clarity to emerge.

He also said he would only count the approved I-140s in EB3I for the downgrade petitions
07-16-2021, 10:50 AM
EB20112021

Hey folks - thought of sharing this as most of us keep tracking progress on status. My situation is EB3 - PD Mar 2011, 485 filed -10/26/2020 and Finger prints done 03/19/2021. Got the update that my EAD card has been mailed as of 07/15/2021.

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page