EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-30-2011, 07:34 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

Look at the 245 (a):
Quote
The status of an alien who was inspected and admitted or paroled into the United States may be adjusted by the Attorney General, in his discretion and under such regulations as he may prescribe,
Unquote

The law could've been mute about discretion. But instead it chose to explicitely state that even if everything else is fulfiled (including date being current) a visa is allocated with "DISCRETION".

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.
08-30-2011, 08:37 AM
nishant2200

Spec, thanks again for detailed response.

Reason I put forth these theories, so that we get intelligent feedback on them. We can summarize our understanding then, and put rest to doubts possibly.

And can't just wait and see what happens :) too much of a big deal for some.

Now, my takeaway is: If they are able to announce spare visas in May like this year, dates might move to the tipping point. But that will get them PWMB also. Next move can then be only in dying phases of the FY. If no spare visas can be announced early, then anyways it means bad SO and dates move in dying phases will be enough.

People in late 2007, should keep all docs ready, be extremely careful to avoid RFE, if they have any chance of getting GC in next FY. Window if opens might be very small.

Now, if they do realize in dying phases, SO more, EB2IC demand less, processing time left less. Then they should move dates into 2008 to grab CP demand, and also advance EB3 ROW dates. And so we get by-product of inventory again.

And I still think they need a official way to deal with this entire mess to be able to make inventory.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.
08-30-2011, 09:04 AM
Spectator

Nishant,

I completely agree with your analysis.
08-30-2011, 10:08 AM
makmohan

All,

Is there any separate thread or discussions that lists all documents that absolutely need to be ready in order to avoid any RFE in case the dates become current?

Thanks,
M
08-30-2011, 10:18 AM
mvinayam

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Nishant,

I completely agree with your analysis.

Gurus,

Since the CO was hoping to move the date to July 1 2007 in Sept 2011 Bulletin is there any hope or possibility for the dates to move to July 1st 2007 before the Spill over season or any rough estimate when the dates can move to July 1st for EB2 IC.

Need to make some important career decision so will be better to know how long will be the wait time :( .
08-30-2011, 11:37 AM
gcseeker

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jitesh

So what do you think guyz - when will dates start moving for EB2I?

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

Quote:

Originally Posted by mvinayam

Gurus,

Since the CO was hoping to move the date to July 1 2007 in Sept 2011 Bulletin is there any hope or possibility for the dates to move to July 1st 2007 before the Spill over season or any rough estimate when the dates can move to July 1st for EB2 IC.

Need to make some important career decision so will be better to know how long will be the wait time :( .
08-30-2011, 12:02 PM
qblogfan

We have to wait for year after year
I have gone through 5 summers.
I hope the 2012 summer will be the last summer of my GC journey.
It is killing people.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcseeker

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )
08-30-2011, 12:21 PM
gcseeker

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen :) . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

We have to wait for year after year
I have gone through 5 summers.
I hope the 2012 summer will be the last summer of my GC journey.
It is killing people.
08-30-2011, 12:27 PM
nishant2200

gcseeker, well said on all counts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcseeker

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcseeker

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen :) . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.
08-30-2011, 12:33 PM
nishant2200

I think what we have is here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-to-file-I485

also do a google search for documents needed to file I-485, you will come across immihelp and path2usa websites among others. Also one should read the form I-485 and its filing instructions.

Of course, first and foremost, if possible, this should be determined from the company lawyer. If you feel lawyer is missing something, or needs some specifics on your situation (like no birth certificate, wrong name in some document etc.), enlighten him politely.

If you need to get any affidavits, documents etc from India, it's never too late to start from right now. Any affidavit, made right now, will be valid in future. You don't need to wait. So that you don't rush at last moment. Remember it's not easy to get this administrative haggling done in India, and in some cases, it might be upto our old parents to run around for us. Better do it early.

Quote:

Originally Posted by makmohan

All,

Is there any separate thread or discussions that lists all documents that absolutely need to be ready in order to avoid any RFE in case the dates become current?

Thanks,
M
08-30-2011, 01:03 PM
soggadu

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...
08-30-2011, 01:12 PM
qblogfan

Thanks for your kind words.

I am glad to know you know Laozi. Your words are so impressive!

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcseeker

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen :) . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.
08-30-2011, 01:12 PM
qblogfan

Ni hao! thanks for your kind words.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

gcseeker, well said on all counts.
08-30-2011, 01:20 PM
qesehmk

Spec

Now you are talking that the bird is not dead..... he is lying down with eyes closed not breathing and cold etc etc... Just acknowledge things for what they are.

Granting LPR is discretionary means that law does NOT require USCIS/DOS to grant LPR even if dates are current.

DoS can legally move dates all over the place and teh law doesn't have a problem with that.

You can ignore this common sense ... and sorry to be persistent and a bit harsh ... but i think you sometimes just can never agree to something contrary to your belief.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.
08-30-2011, 01:53 PM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

Now you are talking that the bird is not dead..... he is lying down with eyes closed not breathing and cold etc etc... Just acknowledge things for what they are.

Granting LPR is discretionary means that law does NOT require USCIS/DOS to grant LPR even if dates are current.

DoS can legally move dates all over the place and teh law doesn't have a problem with that.

You can ignore this common sense ... and sorry to be persistent and a bit harsh ... but i think you sometimes just can never agree to something contrary to your belief.

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.
08-30-2011, 03:09 PM
gchopeful123

Hey Soggadu,

Where did you find it? Let me know...i need to get one as well.

Thanks!

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...
08-30-2011, 03:43 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Hey Soggadu,

Where did you find it? Let me know...i need to get one as well.

Thanks!

man...its too hard... got mine from circuit city and they are not selling them any more... but whats happening now a days...

P.S. One of friends saying end its eminent next year and get prepared and all... just wondering if we can get our GC before 12/12/2012... I want to catch it once before it gets dark... MY PRECIOUSSSSS....
08-30-2011, 03:44 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.

We should not worry. Q and Spec are ok. It's just their passion for the analysis, we mere mortals may sometimes interpret otherwise. I am personally a big fan of them both, as well as Teddy and Veni. And not forgetting the various strong contributors like urself, bieber, neospeed, kanmani, (also sogaddu :) ) forgive me if don't recollect other names here.

We are soon going to start new thread for FY 2012, looking forward to that. All the best for next year to everyone.
08-30-2011, 04:04 PM
cbpds1

I was hunting in vain, u have some pointers? :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...
08-30-2011, 04:11 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbpds1

I was hunting in vain, u have some pointers? :)

Get registered with hp.com... they are sending in emails wheh they get these in stock...

Nishant...

You got really involved dude...now i can say fab five instead of 4... i am happy for your contributions... keep it going....

Hey Q... How is ur card... r u going to post it here or not ;-) ...
08-30-2011, 04:12 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.

arey uncle... lets appreciate for what they are able to do and doing... they are really keeping the forum going in this dull weather... jai ho ...Fab 5...
08-30-2011, 04:57 PM
qesehmk

soggadu ... just now my 2 yr old saw your Avatar and she burst into laughter!! Love that about you.

Spec bhai is the greatest analyst I have seen. But sometimes I have to make extra effort ... but no worries ... we are good.

As per GC ... just now me and spouse were discussing ... that GC indeed is a great peace of mind. Anybody who says life hasn't changed materially may not necessarily be lying but has definitely lost perspective of how it was before GC. So hang in ... and your turn will come :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Get registered with hp.com... they are sending in emails wheh they get these in stock...

Nishant...

You got really involved dude...now i can say fab five instead of 4... i am happy for your contributions... keep it going....

Hey Q... How is ur card... r u going to post it here or not ;-) ...
08-30-2011, 05:59 PM
Spectator

Q and I are good.

We are both passionate and sometimes disagree on some of the subtleties.

It never lasts - venting clears the air and neither of us hold any grudges. I respect Q and what he has to say too much for that.

Disagreement sometimes leads to the greatest understanding.

Movement one way or another is an evolutionary process - it doesn't happen immediately, which is a good thing.
08-30-2011, 07:09 PM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

arey uncle...

That's a first for me
08-31-2011, 09:48 AM
qblogfan

If they can do spill over quarter by quarter, it will be a win win situation.

In the first two quarters, they only used 35%-40% of annual quota.

If we can push them to start spillover from the 1st quarter, the waiting will be less painful for all the applicants.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Ignore if this information is already posted.

3rd quarter USCIS performance data is published

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
08-31-2011, 10:00 AM
nishant2200

CO kind of did it in Q3 this year, and almost sarcastically USCIS got back at him in the end with exact amount as overdue. 12k. IMHO he won't do quarterly.

Secondly, due to 140 surge, quarterly might not gain us much in next FY.

But u never know, by law they can, and will definitely help manage the chaos better n make wait bearable for some.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

If they can do spill over quarter by quarter, it will be a win win situation.

In the first two quarters, they only used 35%-40% of annual quota.

If we can push them to start spillover from the 1st quarter, the waiting will be less painful for all the applicants.
08-31-2011, 10:09 AM
srimurthy

One Q guys, why can't we apply for a EAD lets say after a period of I-140 approval? Instead of waiting till the dates become current. My understanding is atleast this would easy the pain. Because once the dates are current usually the EAD and the Card allotment gets completed with in a year timeframe other than the 2007 scenario where they opened the floodgates. I was trying to understand whats is stopping this since a PERM and I-140 approval means the job is there and all related items are cleared. Only thing that needs verification is the background checks and visa availability before GC is allocated, so whats stopping USCIS to allow people to change to EAD?
08-31-2011, 10:19 AM
mesan123

I feel th same...gurus can answer better....why cant USCIS let us file 485 . They can issue us the GC when our date becomes current....Atleast with this way people can get EAD and can work on that....and have no hassles of H1b...

Which law is stopping them from doing so???:confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

One Q guys, why can't we apply for a EAD lets say after a period of I-140 approval? Instead of waiting till the dates become current. My understanding is atleast this would easy the pain. Because once the dates are current usually the EAD and the Card allotment gets completed with in a year timeframe other than the 2007 scenario where they opened the floodgates. I was trying to understand whats is stopping this since a PERM and I-140 approval means the job is there and all related items are cleared. Only thing that needs verification is the background checks and visa availability before GC is allocated, so whats stopping USCIS to allow people to change to EAD?
08-31-2011, 10:36 AM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

I feel th same...gurus can answer better....why cant USCIS let us file 485 . They can issue us the GC when our date becomes current....Atleast with this way people can get EAD and can work on that....and have no hassles of H1b...

Which law is stopping them from doing so???:confused:

If wishes were horses, we would ride them to heaven..
That's what we have been banging our heads over for so long.
What they can do is make the dates current for a while and retrogress so as to capture the incoming inventory.That scenario though improbable can occur once the dates move past Aug 07.
08-31-2011, 10:48 AM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

CO kind of did it in Q3 this year, and almost sarcastically USCIS got back at him in the end with exact amount as overdue. 12k. IMHO he won't do quarterly.

Secondly, due to 140 surge, quarterly might not gain us much in next FY.

But u never know, by law they can, and will definitely help manage the chaos better n make wait bearable for some.

I doubt it Nishant. Initially I thought their objective was to help ROW. But now I think it is to keep EB-IC numbers utilization as low as possible.
On another note - CO actually did a favor to USCIS by keeping enough numbers available. He would be very well within his authority to deny any numbers since he hadn't seen that demand materialize.

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

One Q guys, why can't we apply for a EAD lets say after a period of I-140 approval? Instead of waiting till the dates become current. My understanding is atleast this would easy the pain. Because once the dates are current usually the EAD and the Card allotment gets completed with in a year timeframe other than the 2007 scenario where they opened the floodgates. I was trying to understand whats is stopping this since a PERM and I-140 approval means the job is there and all related items are cleared. Only thing that needs verification is the background checks and visa availability before GC is allocated, so whats stopping USCIS to allow people to change to EAD?

They are actively working on it. Some legal wiseguy can point us to a proposed bill that contains this provision.

[QUOTE=mesan123;8026]I feel th same...gurus can answer better....why cant USCIS let us file 485 . They can issue us the GC when our date becomes current....Atleast with this way people can get EAD and can work on that....and have no hassles of H1b...

Which law is stopping them from doing so???:confused:[/QUOTE
Again it is being proposed that people with 140 can obtain an EAD without havign to wait for 485.
08-31-2011, 12:09 PM
nishant2200

I agree with this point of view also. Good angle. Makes a lot of sense. Seems like CO is really conservative and wants to be fair as much as possible, to all he can.

bieber said long back, which I keep remembering. If instead of huge movements early on, they had moved just 2 months slowly, we would have still ended up on 15-april-2007 and would not have been as disappointed!

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I doubt it Nishant. Initially I thought their objective was to help ROW. But now I think it is to keep EB-IC numbers utilization as low as possible.
On another note - CO actually did a favor to USCIS by keeping enough numbers available. He would be very well within his authority to deny any numbers since he hadn't seen that demand materialize.
08-31-2011, 01:09 PM
Kanmani

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?
08-31-2011, 01:34 PM
qblogfan

MITBBS data includes CP data and also July approvals/assigned numbers.

USCIS Q1-Q3 ends June.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?
08-31-2011, 02:13 PM
qesehmk

I always looked at the MITBBS numbers are 485+CP actual and projected allocation through Aug 2011.

Then it makes all sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?
08-31-2011, 02:25 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

qblogfan,
Remember USCIS numbers represent only AOS (485), we have to add CP to ~82K.

FY2010 CP(EB1-5) = ~12.5K, If we take same CP number for this year means only ~45k is available to USCIS for Q4.

Assuming EB2IC will be using 15 -18K in Q4, leaves about 27-30k for the rest (EB1,EB2ROW, EB3All, EB4 and EB5).

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

qblogfan,

Not only that let's look at 140 data

FY2011:I140 Data

Q1-Q2:
Completions = 35,331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (12.77%)

Q3:
Completions = 26,838
Approvals = 24,757
Denials = 2,081 (7.75%)

Q1-Q3:
Completions = 62,169
Approvals = 55,577
Denials = 6,592 (10.60%)

Looking at Q3 - 140 approvals are almost doubled and the denial ratio dropped significantly, means more EB2ROW-M-P(485) into the pipeline for Q4.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?

Kanmani,
Please see my response to qblogfan on this data above.
08-31-2011, 02:31 PM
chirag.n

the new fiscal year starts in a few days...all the very best to everyone...may everyone in the line get GC asap....
08-31-2011, 02:55 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

soggadu ... just now my 2 yr old saw your Avatar and she burst into laughter!! Love that about you.

Spec bhai is the greatest analyst I have seen. But sometimes I have to make extra effort ... but no worries ... we are good.

As per GC ... just now me and spouse were discussing ... that GC indeed is a great peace of mind. Anybody who says life hasn't changed materially may not necessarily be lying but has definitely lost perspective of how it was before GC. So hang in ... and your turn will come :)

lol...say my hi hello to the princess Q...

I totally agree with u on the GC thing... one of my friend got gc mail in the morning and by evening he has his europe and african safari tickets ready... lol... talk about freedom....
08-31-2011, 03:21 PM
nishant2200

Latest H1b count, just happened to see: only 29,000. Masters is at 15,800.

Less incoming from non I/C, if not advantageous, definitely is not going to harm :)
08-31-2011, 03:22 PM
nishant2200

Perspective. I myself realized that when we for eg. talk about 6k porting, it's not actually 6,000 people switching from EB3 to EB2, it's more like 2,900 people doing so, which suddenly sounds more realistic than 6k.
08-31-2011, 03:26 PM
nishant2200

many times I have dreamt of this day, and always I visualize myself lying down on a cloud and floating peacefully.

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

lol...say my hi hello to the princess Q...

I totally agree with u on the GC thing... one of my friend got gc mail in the morning and by evening he has his europe and african safari tickets ready... lol... talk about freedom....

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