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At last got my RFE. As per USCIS - "They received my response to the RFE but they are unable to locate it". Looks like I need to redo the medical. Strange, incompetent & frustrating. Did not think that this is a possibility .....Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Based on this how is the forecast for eb2 I looking like
I don't think anyone knows how many people are pending or have abandoned. There are others in the forum who have crunched numbers for some time who may be in a better position to respond. Looking at the age old July 2018 485 pending inventory, there were about 15k left over until end of Apr 2010. So worst case, you at least need that much to wipe the backlog until then. But the reality is that many EB2I until mid 2009 have already received their GC, so if we have to make a guesstimate, it's at least 10k, maybe a bit lower than that if some people have received GC through other means, abandoned etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by laksinu800
Even with the additional GCs, I wonder how many I-485s USCIS will realistically be able to process...
With the furloughs staved off until end of Aug, you would think that with the dearth of applications, especially with them slow-playing DACA deliberately, they have a lot of capacity. But you can bet your last buck, they will come up with creative ways to slow it down as much as they can.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Hi Umesh
Did you receive the Medical RFE recently? Which Service center?
Will not DHS appropriation bill take away the expected FB SPILLOVER
As per murthy short term appropriation bill has to be passed
Yes, I received medical RFE for me and wife. We both responded in Feb. I got another RFE today. Where they mentioned that they received my RFE response but are unable to locate it.Quote:
Originally Posted by getsaby
There will be no spillover imo.. stock market will collapse if not passed by Friday... so appropriations bill is already having poisonous pills... I don’t count it until next fiscal year end...
I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
hours 37 minutes ago
#1
Was let in 15 mins before interview. Got called in 10 mins after the time slot. Officer took an oath, went through all "Yes/No" questions from form I-485. Asked for my pay stubs, employment verification letter and almost most of interview was around my arrest record.
I was not guilty and was found not guilty by the court. I had original certified document from the court along with police report stating that no arrest record exists. But he wanted me really come out and say that I did something wrong and court just looked the other way and gave me a pass. He was very friendly describing series of steps like "Was it one of the cases where you are successful professional, and court said since this is ur first offense we will let it go but you do series of counseling sessions, or community service or something like that in nature". After he said this he quickly stopped smiling and with loud stern voice asked me " Did you or did you not do any community service, or counseling sessions requested by the court to get a not guilty plea ? Did court dismiss it as this was ur first offense? admit it?" I looked straight and said "NO" since I was really not guilty and court had found me "Not guilty".
Honestly I felt threatened and bullied by an officer. This was not the time and place for that officer to act in that way. I should have honestly asked for supervisor intervention.
Anyway he went through all the court documents and laughed and said "They really want to say you are not guilty". I also had an assessment letter from my lawyer stating 4 pages long how I was not guilty. He laughed at that and snakily said "well all your records are all expunged, they make it very clear ur not guilty".
At the end he said "your case is approved and you will receive ur benefit in 2 weeks. If I don't hear anything please call the hotline.
How do I monitor my status since online case status still says "Interview canceled and notice ordered" ?
If ur case is honest and truthful but have any court issues please, please take an attorney with you. I had phone interview with Jim Hacking and he had told me that most officers all ask you series of questions related your court case and stop and not talk much expecting you to blurt out something. My officer pulled that trick on me, and thank god I knew that from talking to Jim. I stayed calm and quiet for almost 5 mins, looked straight into the eyes of an officer and didn't say a word. Then he moved along but still kept coming back to my arrest record.
Finally I think he approved it bcuz there was nothing he could do but honestly felt like he wanted me to agree to what he wanted.
I hope he doesn't delay my approval bcuz as I was leaving I said "I don't want to touch the door knob, as it will put ur office personnel at risk. Could you please open the door ?" He did but looking back I think he may have mistaken my intentions for asking him to do that.
Yes , this is right. I have been on EAD/AP for the last 8 years and the i-94 always expired a year from entry . No issues with renewals or future re-entries as they have always happened after the i-94 expiry for me . I-94 is really a no-op while on EAD/AP. It was scary when I had to send my expired i-94 the first time I was renewing my EAD/AP, but now its a routine.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0
If we consider August and September 2020 the final spillover might be close to 120k.
This can realize around 35K for each Eb1, 2 and 3. Eb1 numbers for India beyond April 2018 appears limited looking at the 2019 data and it has the potential to be current by March 2021.
Eb2 Row current for this FY ensures very limited applicants beyond March 2020 in that category. Same thing with Eb3 Row.
As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.
I would not waste time going through hundreds of pages of the DHS appropriations Bill trying to find out if those provisions are included or not. They may be there now or may be added during the rules committee meeting or as a floor amendment.The DHS bill will be passed as part of a large minibus bill covering appropriations for 7 departments in one package. Generally floor amendments are not allowed for such packages because then the roll call votes will go on forever. This is merely the House of Representatives fulfilling its obligation of initiating spending bills for the next financial year. This will be sent to the Senate where no action is expected to happen on this. The Senate for its part has not marked up any appropriations Bill for the upcoming Fiscal year and is unlikely to do so before September 30 when the current year ends. The COVID relief Bill is going to take most of the next 2-3 weeks and the Senate will recess for at least 3 weeks if not more to give the Senators in tough races a chance to campaign hard in the home stretch. Even in the event of the Senate passing all its appropriations Bills miraculously there is no time for conference to resolve the House-Senate differences and agree/vote on a final package. This leaves the only option of a continuing resolution at the end of September. The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
The length of the CR will most likely be 6 weeks to take us to the middle of November when the results/balance of power after the election will be clearer. There will be a second CR at that pont and the length of that will depend on the election results. If the balance of power remains the same then the pressure would be for an omnibus Bill that includes the favorite provisions of the WH and the above provisions may not see the light of day at all. However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.
Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also
On a different note IF ( and that is a big IF) the current trends hold and the Democrats assume complete control of the Senate then Sen.Leahy will move to Appropriations Chair ( which is the more coveted and prestigious post and also having already served as Judiciary committee chairman from 200802015) and Senator Durbin will assume the Chairmanship of the Judiciary committee and the Immigration subcommittee
Thank you beltway guru gs1968 for such a beautifully crafted post. I look forward to hearing more of your wisdom. We will be damned if democrats win big (The spillover to EB will be stripped away). We will be damned if President DT wins reelection (EB will get spillover, but will but will not be fully used). Maybe if both win (D's the house and R's the Senate), then the status quo will remain (and we will go crazy). If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
As long a Biden does not open his mouth, it is Trump’s election to lose.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Didn't you read the latest update from CO? Now that he said it, there are more reasons to believe that the full EB quota will be used this year. If that happens, there will be no 25K+ carry-over for the next year. Even if we don't believe CO's words completely, the 25K+ can easily become something like 5/10K in their attempt to use visas this year. It is better to count on FB cross-over visas and pray that they don't get stolen from us.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Also, if you don't believe in CO's words, then you shouldn't also believe in 25K+ carry-over, because that 25K+ number also came from the CO in his previous update. So, don't selectively believe some of his statements, and not believe some of his other statements. Either you believe him OR don't.
I am a completely newbie, but think eb2 and 3 will be on different dates. All of you experts and knowledgeable folks would know better than me. In addition to many variables, the intent of offices and availability of data makes it almost unrealistic to get a closer prediction.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
There are so many variables -
EB2 and 3 has very different pending numbers.
There are lots of folks moving from eb2 to 3 now and 3 to 2 earlier.
Spillover numbers can vary big, and we won't know for sure till Sept.
USCiS availability of personal and capacity to take X number of cases.
CO's intent and plans to move dates.
Potentially high or low demand for ROW after Dec 2020 once the ban ends IF new admin comes.
Senate balance.
President.
And many more probably..
alpha0,Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0
I’m a bit confused where you are going with this and why you think IR visa issuances in FY2020 would have any effect on the FY2021 EB allocation.
In simplified terms, the EB allocation for FY2021 will be:
Given that the FB allocation for FY2020 was 226,000 if 110,000 were unused, then FB would only have used 116,000 in FY2020.Quote:
140,000
Plus
Any unused FB visas from FY2020
The EB allocation for FY2021 would be 140,000 + 110,000 = 250,000
Immediate Relative visa have no maximum allocation.
In simplified terms, the FB allocation for FY2021 will be:
Usually, the number of IR visas issued in the previous FY reduces the 480,000 to either a small positive number or a negative number. Any unused EB visas to increase that number are relatively small, so the minimum allocation of 226,000 is used for FB.Quote:
480,000
Minus
The number of IR visas issued in FY2020
Plus
Any unused EB visas from FY2020
With the proviso that the minimum number for the FB allocation is 226,000
For the FY2021 calculation, it is quite possible that a much smaller number of IR approvals in FY2020 combined with a higher number of unused EB visas in FY2020 could result in FB receiving an allocation of more than 226,000 for FY2021.
Feel free to correct me, but I do not see how either IR use or the 480,000 figure benefit the EB allocation calculation for FY2021 by increasing it from the latest estimate of 110,000 unused FB visas in FY2020.
This is too much intelligence my friend. Totally unfair. Bow to you. My humble request - please boil it down to 3 line paragraph conclusion. If I am correct, you are saying that the chance such a bill will be passed before USCIS 2021 starts is low. And thus the spillover will happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
What you do not say is that - once USCIS 2021 starts they will (most likely) not try to undo the spillover. Please confirm/correct me.
Sorry my bad. Thanks for pointing it out. I was in denial mode on the last Check-in with CO where the 25K+ EB visas vanished into thin air. The approval trend does not account for the full usage. Somehow did not register in my brain. So we are back to "hope".Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Man, I am looking for something positive here. No matter whichever way I go, you guys keep me tied to the ground.
Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletinQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Correct me if I am wrong
Once the FY starts (2021) and if the SO happens and calculated for the entire year. Is it not illegal to take the SO from third and fourth quarter ( assuming DHS appropriation bill passes and house, senate and WH has changes).
Per my understanding if any bill passes the changes should take place start of FY ( OCT 2021)
So if Mythical SO Happens then DOS is obliged to follow the rules start from oct 2020
I can understand 25k wastage might be ( DOS never assumed EO will be extended to dec 2020)
But now they should not have a choice.
My understanding is that there is no hard and fast rule about how the additional visas are allotted. Maybe Spec or Q can shed light on this. Also the annual numbers are limits/ceilings and not targets. The additional numbers a re available for use but they are not obligated to use all of them if it is not possible to process that number. The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferredQuote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
My bad, Aceman corrected this early in the thread. FB quota is 226k and spillover is based on that and not based on what is not used form 480k.
The law is quite clear. The ceilings are as per the specifications 28.6 EB1/2/3 and 7.1 EB4/5. So the entire 250K will be allocated accordingly.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
Thanks. You say it quite eloquently that the legislation will not be passed before USCIS 2021 but the intent will remain afterwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
And that's what makes it tricky. If the intent is there, then my guess is they will not undo spillover to EB. Rather they will allocate more under another version of S386/HR1044 .... and that's how Durbin's wish gets fulfiled. Just a guess BTW. No insider information.
This is possible in theory. But practicality dictates that, post the start of a fiscal year this would be harder to achieve. I believe this could be amended to use some of the unused VISA numbers like they did a carve out for the medical experts in some other bill. That would make more practical sense then moving the numbers around after the start of the fiscal year.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
I agree. I was referring more to the timeline as to when these would be applied. This is an annual allocation and I don't think there is a monthly/quarterly allocation formula that needs to be followed for distribution of these additional numbers. If as I mentioned an additional 9000 numbers (110000/12) are allotted monthly till the issue is resolved then adjustments can be made later if indeed such a legislation came to passQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am still at the same question
If any law to pass to prevent SO, after September 2020 to oct2021 will not that be applicable to FY 2021- OCT?. We can keep aside intent, uscis slowdown, etc on side.
They have to do quarterly calculation out of 250k and cant deny allocating them as per the legislation
Yes. I agree with your point. Unfortunately the biggest bottleneck is going to be USCIS ability to carry this to completion given that they are struggling/reluctant to reach annual numbers at the current limits.It would be a shame if the lost FB visas were transferred to the EB category only to be lost to processing delays. Legislatively they could always add language that the additional visas issued be subtracted from the annual EB limit. There is considerable uncertainty yetQuote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
I agree with all your previous posts regarding Sen.Durbin. Hopefully he shows that he is a man with a broad mind and a big heart and definitely a very short memoryQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.
Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.
My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let 2020 spillover benefit EB.
Thanks for the explanation. Hopefully EB will be allowed to keep at least the first quarter allocation (about 28000) before any changes are made. Visa recapture is good in theory but hard to achieve.The fate of the COVID nurse/physician bill with recapture of 40000 visas is a case in point. Hopefully the check in with CO after the September bulletin will shed more lightQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I just highlighted this one line, because I will bet nothing gets done legislatively unless it's something core to support Unemployment, Covid or keeping the lights on. The House bills are non-starters at the Senate and vice versa. There will be so much fighting in the next few weeks, ultimately only the bare essentials will filter through in the wee hours before Sept. 30 and any ancillary provisions will be cast aside and they will go home saying we only have 4 weeks to the election, we got stuff to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS BillQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Rep. Meng – "The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."
Technically I don't think there are any unused family FB visas as these would have been applied to the EB category for the following year
Let's assume EB receives 110K spillover from FB.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
If 35K is the extra visas allocated to EB-3 in FY 2021, I don't think EB-3 India will reach Dec 2011. There are lot of categories backlogged in EB-3. So, the extra visas will be shared among those categories. And, EB-3 India (and other categories in EB-3) CP numbers will pick up speed in FY 21. Given all that, I don't see a filing date for EB-3 India beyond 2010 in FY 21.
EB-2 can be entirely different. It's mostly AOS and extra numbers to be shared only between India and China. If USCIS is willing to process all the excess numbers, it can easily reach 2011. If there's a vertical SO from EB-1, it's an added advantage. But the question is,can USCIS process those many numbers?
Does or doesn't?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
You are 100% correct. In fact I highlighted this in my long post this morning. A CR is probably the only available option now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly