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Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I know, but if there are that many extra receipts, we might expect to see higher approvals as well, since the processing time isn't that slow. We don't, so it is a small mystery. The FY2010 approvals for the same period were 55.1k.
The appropriate FACTS & DATA posts have been updated.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Looking at Q1,Q2 & Q3 PERM data it is obvious that PERM processing got slowed down from Q1 to Q2 to Q3.
FY2011-Q1:
Certified = 18,288
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,431
Total processed = 22,719
FY2011-Q2:
Certified = 16,873
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,639
Total processed = 20,512
FY2011-Q3:
Certified = 12,744
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,484
Total processed = 16,228
Applications Processed:
Q2 compared to Q1 = 10% less
Q3 compared to Q2 = 21% less
Q3 compared to Q1 = 28.5% less
Denied/Withdrawn (% of completions):
Q1 = 19.5%
Q2 = 17.7%
Q3 = 21.4%
Q1-Q3 = 19.4%
Monthly Completions FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Highest processed in a month = December 2010 = 10,199
Lowest processed in a month = April 2011 = 3,685
From June PERM Factsheet there are 22,200 active PERM applications pending as of 05/31/2011
June 2011 completions = 6,490, if we assume same amount of receipts for June'11 means 22K PERM pending as of 06/30/2011.
Also based on the processing stastitics from the Fact Sheet ~75% of these pending cases are from FY 2011 only!
Veni, can you please explain the impact of these numbers.Quote:
....Also based on the processing stastitics from the Fact Sheet ~75% of these pending cases are from FY 2011 only!
ssvp22,Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
Any backlog build-up (140 or PERM) is not good for SOFAD in the long run!
Historically ROW-M-P is averaging about 50-60% of PERM Certifications.
Spec and Q pointed that most of the ROW are applying in EB2 post July 2007.
So, if and when this backlog is cleared will use-up significant VISA numbers, which means less spillover from ROW!
Veni,
Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.
Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.
It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
You are correct, I see somewhat decrease in ROW-M-P numbers (could be the result of backlog) for FY2011(Q1-Q3), when compared to past few years trend.
On porting numbers (EB3-->EB2I) i would stick to your assumptions, rather than diving into deep.
P.S: I have noticed similar decrease in CHINA numbers also.
Spec and Veni
I dont' understand why you are concerned about future SPILLOVER from ROWMP?
Looking at the numbers in FACTS and data, I see 2011 PERM approvals for ROWMP tracking to full year 30% down. So everything else remaining same (denial withdrawal rates at various stages) shouldn't ROWMP next year use 30% less quota for ROWMP EB2?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That is true on the PERM certifications, and it is clear that the decrease is due to the back-log buildup.
Here are the headwinds for spillover from ROW-M-P for FY2012
1. Significant 140 back-log, not sure how much will be cleared by FY2011.
2. Significant(~22K) PERM backlog (even certified in Q4 may not get VISA from FY2011 numbers)
If we assume the current rate of ROW-M-P demand(PERM) continue & also all current PERM backlog(22K- all countries) will be cleared by Q1/Q2 - 2012 then, it will bring an additional 13.5K EB2ROW-M-P 485 into the pipeline.
If I start ROW-M-P 485 backlog for FY2012 similar to this year, add next year demand(three quarters) + PERM backlog reduction then, the picture is not pretty for SOFAD.
Can you please give link to trackitt predictions threadQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I don't see why you are concerned. Based on the daily approvals http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 :
EB1 appears to be heading for around 27k approvals.
EB2-ROW appears to be heading for around 25.5k approvals and EB2-MP for around 3-3.5k approvals.
That gives (40-27) + (34.4-29) = 18.4k spillover.
Add on EB2-IC allocation of 5.6k gives 24k and a further 6-8k from EB5 gives total SOFAD of 30-32k.
Given the amount needed is 26k + Porting etc (4-6k) that appears to be bang on.
ssvp22,Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716
The lower end of projection is also 1 month off (i.e. measured by backlog). But of course that 1 month could ultimately prove to be change. But its the fact that lower end also is off makes me concerned.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
p.s. - Last year Sep was not such a good month for EB1 and EB2ROW. If they continue their rate then they will consume the SOFAD otherwise wouldve been avlbl.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If I thought normality was going to be followed, I would agree with you. In fact, it was an assumption I held on to for a long time, assuming more SOFAD was going to be available.
CO's comments and the fact that the extra demand was found so late, pretty much guarantees the pattern will not follow that of previous years.
It does rely on USCIS actually processing them, which is always a worry.
I think there is more a problem of potentially having too many EB1/EB2-ROW cases that could be approved. Had CO known about that before setting the August VB, I am not sure he would have moved it so far. I can see some (probably EB1) approvals being delayed into October.
Q /Spec / Veni & All Friends,
I did a simple query on Trackitt; the trend shows that EB2 ROW approvals are actually accelerating and this year EB2 ROW approvals will actually surpass last year if the accelerating trend continues or come very close.
Country of Chargeability = ROW.
I485 Status = Approved
Category= EB2.
Now using approval and denial date ranges for last year and this year the figures can be obtained.
11 Months of FY 2010 - 496
11 Months of FY 2011 - 475 (We still have a few days to go in Aug 2011).
Over the entire year this trend never crossed the 90% ratio this is now at 95% already completely discounting the few days that we have in Aug. This ratio has always been less than 90% in fact at the beginning of the year it was just at 66%. Now Aug 2010 has 46 approvals so far while Aug 2011 has 37 approvals, since there is a delay in posting approvals and some days still left, the approvals in 2011 may well surpass 2010 for the month of Aug. We all know if ROW usage in 2011 matches 2010 then 2011 SOFAD from ROW will be lesser because of the lower cap minus FB. Now the real question is what proportion of I140 surge will be approved in 2011 itself, the higher the better for the upcoming years SOFAD. If its 50-50 then the first quarter of 2012 will generate virtually no SOFAD from EB2 ROW.
Teddy You are right. ROW this year was not the main story. It was really EB1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agree, Spec's SOFAD calculation looks close to the actual for FY2011!
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Another point to note is 72% of the ROW-M-P PERM Certifications from FY2011(Q1-Q3) are with PD2010 or before.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf
From this PDF, totally 82k visas were used in the first three quarters.
Based on this data, we should have 58k visas for the last quarter.
Why our PD stayed the same in the last month? It doesn't make any sense. In July and August our EB2 C&I consumption is only 10-15k based on demand data. That means they have to approve more than 40k EB1&EB2 ROW in the last quarter. I think they will waste some visas in this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Remember USCIS numbers represent only AOS (485), we have to add CP to ~82K.
FY2010 CP(EB1-5) = ~12.5K, If we take same CP number for this year means only ~45k is available to USCIS for Q4.
Assuming EB2IC will be using 15 -18K in Q4, leaves about 27-30k for the rest (EB1,EB2ROW, EB3All, EB4 and EB5).
Thanks for your explanation. It makes perfect sense now.
I think 27k-30k is reasonable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Not only that let's look at 140 data
FY2011:I140 Data
Q1-Q2:
Completions = 35,331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (12.77%)
Q3:
Completions = 26,838
Approvals = 24,757
Denials = 2,081 (7.75%)
Q1-Q3:
Completions = 62,169
Approvals = 55,577
Denials = 6,592 (10.60%)
Looking at Q3 - 140 approvals are almost doubled and the denial ratio dropped significantly, means more EB2ROW-M-P(485) into the pipeline for Q4.
wow! your further analysis makes 100% sense now!
The Q3 140 number is the key for the Q4 VB.
I think in Q1-Q3 the EB1 cases were not ready for approval because of the memo and once they opened the 140 gate in Q3, a large number of EB2ROW and EB1 are running into the system to block the Q4 pipeline.
The large number of 140 pending cases make FY 2012 very scary! I think SOFAD will drop big time in FY 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
ni hao my friend. Not sure about the big time in there. Let's see at least first few months before thinking that. Hope again.
For china, it shud be quite better movement. Had posted earlier on this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Agree, starting Oct bulletin, EB2C should see at least 2-3 weeks forward movement until FY2012 spillover season start.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Veni, now, I also think that normal movement of EB2C will bring them close to the tipping point of August 2007 around the start of SO season. This brings an interesting puzzle. The SO visas are to be given strictly in order of PD. So the BTM for intake for EB2C, would that also have to be con-joined to EB2I. In other words, could the need to have inventory for EB2C also benefit EB2I, in both timing and the temporary date movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I am not sure why it should have any effect.
At the beginning of FY2012, EB2-C have at least 3,200 cases outstanding, with more PWMB to become qualified as the months and dates progress.
That is more than the initial allocation of 2,803 available for the whole year.
Until the end of the third quarter, DOS cannot allocate more than 81% of total visas anyway (54% by end of Q2). Even if they were to allocate the full 2,803 available to EB2-C, they will not reach the tipping point.
Since EB1 and EB2-non IC demand seems quite strong going into FY2012, DOS may well be constrained how quickly they can use more than the 250ish visas per month allowed to each of EB2-C and EB2-I and stay within the 27% per quarter limit. At that rate, to reach the end of June 2007 for EB2-C would require 6.5 months worth and July 2007 needs the same again.
If usage of visas is low in other Categories, at some point DOS may be able to announce spare visas available to EB2-IC, as they did in the May VB in FY2011.
That seems relatively more unlikely in FY2012 at the same level of numbers (12k) as seen in FY2011. That 12k allowed a further 9.7k (81% of 12k) to be allocated to EB2 in May/June 2011, of which around 9k seems to be used.
In FY2011, DOS stayed completely within the law in starting SO season early IMO. I think it is more difficult for FY2012.
Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen.
I don't think EB2-C progress will be a factor at all.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am with you, unless USCIS comes up with "testing the waters" concept, it is very unlikely to see any forward movement for EB2I until Q3 of FY2012!
EB2 - South Korea has been using significant VISAs from past few years.
FY2011(Q1-Q3) saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.
South Korea: PERM Data:
FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Approved = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)
FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Completions = 3,360 (~15.5% decrease)
Approved = 2,632
Denied/Withdrawn = 728 (21.67%)
Spec
Very well said. I agree w you. The dates in 2011 are so cleverly crafted that USCIS has eliminated a lot of backlog but at the same time kept enough to ensure they have discretion to make any further movement. EB2C has just enough backlog that puts them in exactly same fate as EB2I in terms of any SFM or BTM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My understanding is that, as long as renewal is filed, she is in status even if the decision goes beyond her H1 expiry date. (I do think that she should be approved before that though). If a -ve decision comes in (which I doubt) she would be out of status from H1 perspective. But she can enjoy dependent status using her husband's H1.
I am not quite confident about transition from H1 to H4 period and being out of status there. But I think she can change her status from H1 to H4 without having to go to India. Visa is only an entry mechanism. Status can be obtained without getting a visa.
But I am not sure what window for conversion from H1 to H4 keeps her in status all the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan2008
Spec, this puts to rest another theory in my mind.
Thanks a lot for the detailed reply.
Now about another theory which is breeding in my mind.
Now about the sentence about: "Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen."
In July 2007 fiasco period, I remember reading post analysis somewhere, where in the Ombudsman had worked out a deal with USCIS and DOS that all applicants with PD July 2007 and later will not be given green cards, and shall be only used to build up demand by USCIS.
I frankly see no way out for USCIS/DOS but to "ignore the law" and make a meaningful movement, sometime at least 6 months before the FY 2012 ends, and that movement also has to have a intake of a buffer period of 1 or 2 months also.
Now would this be called "ignoring the law", or rightfully and honestly, specifying the reason why it's being done, add a disclaimer just like they did in July 2007 period, something on the lines that, this movement is only being done to generate demand by USCIS, and you should expect significant retrogression in forthcoming months.
It is extremely sad that we ended months away from the tipping point this FY. If we had indeed rested at the July 1st 2007 whereabouts, the above would have a very strong chance. Even without this, I believe we might be teetering on the edge. Let's say fine, SO is bad, and we come to rest on September 1st 2007. So what then, how do you get more demand generated for FY 2013. The fundamental problem will always remain, and USCIS/DOS have to come to an agreement on how to tackle this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Nishant,
I cent-percent agree with you on this. I hope and pray USCIS/DOS decide to tackle this scenario in the near future rather than "waiting to cross the bridge when they approach it".
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
There are always alternatives. Of course there are other ways out, even if they don't seem very palatable.
DOS can move the dates when they lawfully can (i.e. when enough visas are deemed to be available). Filing would be possible, with approval, for many, possibly the following year - or USCIS could actually do some work for a change.
If that happens to be too late for USCIS to adjudicate them all, there are plenty of pre adjudicated EB3 applicants who can use the spare visas if qualified adjudicated EB2 applicants run out.
If DOS want to follow the law, they can't add a disclaimer like that. The dates can only move if there are visas immediately available. The law does not provide for movement purely to build demand. It is an area that needs changing, but there is no appetite in Congress to address it, nor have I even seen it suggested. As far as I am aware, there was never a disclaimer published in 2007 - please provide a link if you have one.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I don't think that a movement to July 1, 2007 would have made much difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
That still would have left 3.8k + 2.7k PWMB + Porting which is still more than the initial allocation. Possibly EB2-C might have been able to push past August 15, 2007.
As it is, there is probably 16-18k EB2-IC demand without even moving beyond August 15, 2007, of which only 4.5k represents PWMB that would take any considerable time to adjudicate. Had the dates reached August 15, 2007 then possibly there was scope to do something about moving COD around CP cases.
The demand can be generated at the end of each yearly cycle. Each alternating year, not all cases might be adjudicated in time, allowing EB3 to potentially progress.
At least, in the broader sense, no EB visas would be wasted.
Who knows what will happen - I certainly don't. I do think it is one of the more interesting questions surrounding FY2012. Whatever happens, DOS cannot win - they will upset one group or the other.
Please treat my reply as playing the "straightest of bats". It is meant to be thought provoking.
Spec
The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?
So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.
On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, thanks for reply.
about your question, this is link to original good old July 2007 visa bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_3258.html
see Section E:
E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.
Q, see above, you are absolutely correct I feel, they have in fact done this earlier, as per above.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Thanks for the link.
It was to try to get USCIS to complete more cases (generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases) and to avoid wastage of visas (to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit) by allowing DOS to allocate visas to as many CP cases as possible. Generating an Inventory was merely a by-product of not wasting visas.
Also, this was July, the first month of Q4, when limitations are removed. After the event, we know what a disaster that was, so it seems unlikely to be repeated.
A couple of things are different.
DOS now know how many cases USCIS have and USCIS production rates have been sufficient not to waste visas since.
Coming to Q's point, the problem is that there are probably anywhere between 8-18k cases that could be approved if the dates moved forward. The absolute minimum is the 8k demand left at the end of August, which is more than the initial limit.
That means DOS cannot move the date beyond August 15, 2007 until there are enough visas available to cover that date and then some more. By the time that decision can be made, at least 6 months will have elapsed and we can add on another 2k Porting cases. That means more than 10k visas would be needed. If we start with 5.6k visas initially, that means more than 4.4k need to be available to move beyond the backlog.
If that was done in the first month of Q3 (April 2012), then more than 5.4k additional visas would need to be announced. To also account for PWMB in that period would need more than 9k visas to be announced.
To move to October 2007 would need 21k visas to be announced. Given that we might expect quite strong performance from EB1 and EB2-non IC initially, then even 9k would be a very good result.
That really means any substantial movement would need to wait to July 2012, if the law is to be followed.
I agree with you that DOS may not necessarily follow the law religiously. That will possibly create a problem.
There is an EB universe beyond EB2-IC. Others will be looking to make sure that DOS do follow the law.
Whilst no-one in this forum is guilty of this, a certain section of EB2-I in other forums have delighted in rubbing EB3 noses in the dirt about how the revised spillover interpretation is just following the law.
If following the law also has a deleterious effect on EB2 at some point, then EB3 will just say "what is sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander" and that the law cannot be bent or broken to benefit a particular group.
Spec,
we can't fault EB2IC for being happy about the changed spillover interpretation, can we? After all they too have been waiting upto a decade. EB3ROW is going to have timelines similar to EB2IC. But the worst affected group is EB3IC. I would agree though that this is still an overall unfortunate situation.
But coming back to a key point that I have tried to make - unsuccessfully it seems - is that allocation is something that law does address. Visa dates movement is a DoS privilege and they can do so as per they please. Law - per say - doesn't tie their hands as far as visa dates movement is concerned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That is not true. The law does address that.
INA 245 (a)(3) says:
That means that there must be sufficient visas to allocate to all applicants with PDs before the Cut Off Date.Quote:
(3) an immigrant visa is immediately available to him at the time his application is filed.
Since moving the date to August 15, 2007 means there will be at least 10k (possibly more) applicants already qualified to receive a visa, then at least that number of visas must be available for immediate issue at the time the Cut Off Date is set.
Eventually, much more will qualify within the Cut Off Date, but the important part is there will be that many already qualified to receive a visa immediately.
If that number of visas are not available, the COD can't move to that date. Once they can reach that date, then moving beyond it is relatively easier, since only CP and Porting cases will be immediately qualified to receive a visa.
The law can be bent, knowing that processing times mean there is no possibility of a visa being issued to new applications and that the dates can be retrogressed before they become qualified, but it can't be bent for those numbers already pre-adjudicated up to the end of the current backlog - and that is a considerable number.
I hope that better explains the difficulty.
Spec
Look at the 245 (a):
Quote
The status of an alien who was inspected and admitted or paroled into the United States may be adjusted by the Attorney General, in his discretion and under such regulations as he may prescribe,
Unquote
The law could've been mute about discretion. But instead it chose to explicitely state that even if everything else is fulfiled (including date being current) a visa is allocated with "DISCRETION".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
So what do you think guyz - when will dates start moving for EB2I?