EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

2-4 years wait is really frightening. I was hoping to file at least in the July-Sep 2015 or early 2016 when CO decides to build inventory and get the EAD. My PD is EB2-I Feb 2011. Chances of that sure look bleak.

I hope Obama signs the executive order for H-4 spouses to work later this year. But I do not see CIR or the EO for excluding dependents or visa recapture go through.

Just a question to clear my understanding, CO must have kept some visas for ROW countries in all categories, hoping their demand will come in until Sep 30 and made EB2-I Unavialable. What if the demand for some countries does not come in as hoped for, the remaining numbers for those countries are allocated to the most retrogressed country in that Category, especially EB2? Or these visas are wasted and are given to FB quota for next FY?

Hi experts, need your inputs on my 485 application.

My PD -- 10/11/2010
My Wife's PD -- 04/13/2009 -- CURRENT in SEPT 2014 -- first time filer

I have received the 485 receipts today and it has my PD (10/11/2010) and different A# (frommy 140 approval) on it. I thought my 485 receipt will have my wife's PD (04/13/2009) and her A# (from her 140 approval). Is it correct or by mistake they printed my PD (which is not yet current) instead of my wife's PD?

Please advise.

Thanks in advance,
GC2014

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Guys,

I apologize for raising an unexpected alarm with my "2-4 year comment". It's more correct to say that everything is unknown at this point.

These are the factors that need to be considered when building future projections. Let's get the bad news out first and focus on the good news next.

headwinds (bad):
- EB5 will stop giving us spillover going forward.
- This applies only for next year but EB2-ROW won't provide much spillover next year.

tailwinds (good):
+ PERM processing times are going to be worse, so that means fewer applications from ROW categories and porters to crowd out EB2I.

Wild cards:
? How will EB1 behave in the coming years? It more or less depends upon clamping down EB1C. It has been reported that Indians are no longer alone in exploiting this loophole. I am very optimistic this will happen some time, although we might have to endure short term pain.
? Porting. Pre-2007 porting should continue to reduce but post-2007 porting that is not captured in EB3I inventory is unknown. Judging from CO's response and a need to immediately retrogress EB2I, porting for this year is about as bad as it was last year.
? Executive relief.

Put these factors together and try to create an approximate picture in your mind. Post May 1, 2009, an entire year's worth of EB2I inventory (about 12-15K) will remain. Porters will keep jumping on this treadmill. If 2016 turns out to be a great year for spillover, I have no doubt EB2I will jump and go into inventory buildup mode. But if it doesn't happen, it could be 2017 instead. That's why I gave my projection. I think based upon the large pending inventory from EB2-ROW, we can rule out 2015.

Generally, projections and predictions tend to be on the pessimistic side. We have joked that EB2I has a guardian angel that has kept it moving despite all possible headwinds. We also might get lucky yet again in family spillover. So do not fret over when you will become current. Live in the moment (I know it's easier said than done).

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Sportsfan33,

I really appreciate your detailed clarification on the subject, wasn't able to push food down my throat at lunch today :( but it is what it is...I just hope its 2016 and not 2017 maybe there is a guardian angel. Its been 12 yrs in the country for us and I know there are ppl with longer timeframes waiting but this has by far been the greatest test of patience. Getting into a bigger house in a better schooling district for kids, moving into another job with more flexibility and things like that are all a pipe dream for now..maybe some day before its not too late all this will happen.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Guys,

I apologize for raising an unexpected alarm with my "2-4 year comment". It's more correct to say that everything is unknown at this point.

.

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If underlying circumstances don't change you're not far from truth. Everything is unknown at this point but FY'14 didn't give great hope (Especially retrogression back to 2005 says a lot of cases will be unapproved before May,1,2009) either for FY'15.

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Originally Posted by GC2014

Hi experts, need your inputs on my 485 application.

My PD -- 10/11/2010
My Wife's PD -- 04/13/2009 -- CURRENT in SEPT 2014 -- first time filer

I have received the 485 receipts today and it has my PD (10/11/2010) and different A# (frommy 140 approval) on it. I thought my 485 receipt will have my wife's PD (04/13/2009) and her A# (from her 140 approval). Is it correct or by mistake they printed my PD (which is not yet current) instead of my wife's PD?

Please advise.

Thanks in advance,
GC2014

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Your receipts should show your A# and your wife's pd. Just call the customer service # and get clarification (and then let the forum know too)

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Originally Posted by bikenlalan

Just a question to clear my understanding, CO must have kept some visas for ROW countries in all categories, hoping their demand will come in until Sep 30 and made EB2-I Unavialable. What if the demand for some countries does not come in as hoped for, the remaining numbers for those countries are allocated to the most retrogressed country in that Category, especially EB2? Or these visas are wasted and are given to FB quota for next FY?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

This has been a debated topic. No one knows.

It's possible that "some" October approvals are from the previous FY numbers, but no one has ever proven it conclusively. If EB visas are wasted, they are given to FB, but this hasn't happened in a long time (it's been happening in the other direction).

It is however the case that VOs can request visa numbers on a specific day and the case is updated a few days later. We are seeing this phenomenon on trackitt (approvals are still reported even for today). If cases are approved on Sept 29, 30th etc., we may see their approvals on Oct 1 onwards.

The gist is that we can safely rule out "visa wastage" possibility.

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CO has clear visibility in to the number of applications in the pipeline for ROW. Also, it is a very safe assumption that any new application from July onwards will have a very low probability of getting approved. There definitely won't be wastage cos if there's even one visa left on 9/30, it will be allocated to EB2I.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

If underlying circumstances don't change you're not far from truth. Everything is unknown at this point but FY'14 didn't give great hope (Especially retrogression back to 2005 says a lot of cases will be unapproved before May,1,2009) either for FY'15.

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There are always unapproved cases. There were atleast 3k cases unapproved from fy13 that rolled into fy14. The same will happen this year. CO always goes a little long with the dates with the understanding that not everyone will get approved but atleast visas won't be wasted.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Your receipts should show your A# and your wife's pd. Just call the customer service # and get clarification (and then let the forum know too)

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Just now I have talked to my attorney. You are correct Viz, my 485 receipt should have my wife's PD and the A# should be mine (which is correct).

so my attorney said, she will contact them and get the PD amended in my 485 receipt notice.


how much time it takes for the amendment and get the new amended 485 receipt again?

Hello Gurus,
NSC is approving EAD's at rapid pace today for July 2014 filers.No approvals from TSC.One person posted on Trackitt that one of his friend got GC directly from TSC.Does it mean TSC may not issue EAD's but issue GC if there is no problem with the case.Any thoughts?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Where the retrogressed date lands is of no consequence at all. 2005 or even 2008 doesn't make any difference at this point. Upwards of 90% of original filers until May 1 2009 should be greened when the dust settles (I am hoping). Even a backlog of 2K (which is quite low for EB2I) will push the date that far back.

When the next inventory comes out, we will know where things stand.

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To add to this... CO pushes it way back to minimize porting that would consume numbers. He could alternately make it U with the same net effect.

My priority date is eb2 sep 2010

Received nvc fee payment email yesterday!

FYI I last received it in feb 2012 when dates moved upto may 2010, stuck there for 2 months and retrogressed

I am confident dos issues such notices when they THINK dates could get current imminently - no guarantee of course that they actually do

Anyone else with pd after may 2010, who have opted for cp, received notices?

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Originally Posted by jdoe99

Q and other experts: Can someone explain how the Family spillover or visa allocation works for Eb2I in the beginning of the fiscal year. As far as I can see, even family based applications are stuck way back (ok, not as much as E2bI and Eb3I). I am having trouble understanding how this affects the number of visas they give out in Oct. For FY 2014 they gave out 362 and 239 485 primary approvals as per Spec's compilation of trackitt user data. Given the scaling and dependents, I am sure this works out to more than a couple of thousand at the very least.
You probably have answered these questions. Apologies and Thanks in advance :)

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I'm not sure if someone answered your question. Essentially the rule is if there is any wastage on the FB side (due to whatever reason), it HAS TO get transferred to EB in the next fiscal year. It cannot be used by FB in the next year. Hence by the end of a fiscal year (i.e. Sept), CO has a pretty good idea of FB usage and can use some of the overflow in Oct / Nov. Mind you the "official" figures don't come out till Jan/ Feb of the following calendar year.

Wait a min - this is major - the fee is only valid for 1 year IIRC. Plus NVC notices come from DOS and not USCIS - so this is from the source and not some interpretation of DOS' intent by USCIS (like the RFE business). But - Sep 2010 is really way out. Only way we are reaching there is in an inventory build-out scenario. Can we take this as a signal that EB2I inventory buildout is coming? We are getting into 2012-redux?

The Medical RFE process will help the approvals not get into completely random territory. Approvals will remain constraint by 01NOV2009 RFE deadline. This will help with the double RFE problems we would have had in next summer.

Spec - come back from vacation already (>jk< :)
Kanmani - what do you think of this development?

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Originally Posted by vishnu

My priority date is eb2 sep 2010

Received nvc fee payment email yesterday!

FYI I last received it in feb 2012 when dates moved upto may 2010, stuck there for 2 months and retrogressed

I am confident dos issues such notices when they THINK dates could get current imminently - no guarantee of course that they actually do

Anyone else with pd after may 2010, who have opted for cp, received notices?

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Header updated.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Header updated.

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There are still many people left with PD less than 2008 and you mentioned that most of the cases upto march 2009 will be cleared... can you guess how people will be approved in October before dates retrogress in November?

More thoughts regarding the NVC fee notice. I looked though some of the discussion in 2012. NVC fee notices then went out for as far as late in 2011. Also - 1 year validity does not seem to be a hard requirement.

So - tempering enthusiasm - it's a good development - the possibility of a 2012 repeat exists.

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Originally Posted by gc2008

There are still many people left with PD less than 2008 and you mentioned that most of the cases upto march 2009 will be cleared... can you guess how people will be approved in October before dates retrogress in November?

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I do not know what happened in last October. If you are expecting the same phenomenon this year and asking me if it's possible, I will say I don't know.

But I think a lot of the 2008 folks do not necessarily update trackitt data in real time or anywhere close to real time. The reason I say this is because trackitt approval % for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I is pretty much the same. I would've expected 2008 at a much higher rate than 2009.

In other words I think trackitt data may not reflect reality.

As per your own case - I think you should try to make some noise. If you are in 2008 and not yet approved - there is something wrong.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I do not know what happened in last October. If you are expecting the same phenomenon this year and asking me if it's possible, I will say I don't know.

But I think a lot of the 2008 folks do not necessarily update trackitt data in real time or anywhere close to real time. The reason I say this is because trackitt approval % for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I is pretty much the same. I would've expected 2008 at a much higher rate than 2009.

In other words I think trackitt data may not reflect reality.

As per your own case - I think you should try to make some noise. If you are in 2008 and not yet approved - there is something wrong.

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I opened SR and to which they mentioned visa is available and requested my case for reveiw and i should hear something from them in 90 days. Also contacted congresman and yet to hear from them. When i contacted l2 they mentioned that no one has assined to my case. I dont know whats wrong with my case...

If some thing is wrong then I should not have even got RFE right but I got it and responded back in july and patiently waiting since then.. do you have any suggestions?

imdeng,

USCIS might have got some hint on date movement from 'O' before sending these random mass RFEs and he eventually messed up everything by misunderstanding the whole situation. Imagine, our case file already has '3' I-693s sitting, and one more next year would be like killing us bluntly. I do think we cannot predict anything out of their actions (both DoS and USCIS).

I think dates might move beyond may 2010 next year at the end of the 4th quarter, but, how far would depend upon, how far next year's CoD movement is going to go.

Without FB extra visas, we may closely end up at Dec2009 next year.

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Originally Posted by gc2008

I opened SR and to which they mentioned visa is available and requested my case for reveiw and i should hear something from them in 90 days. Also contacted congresman and yet to hear from them. When i contacted l2 they mentioned that no one has assined to my case. I dont know whats wrong with my case...

If some thing is wrong then I should not have even got RFE right but I got it and responded back in july and patiently waiting since then.. do you have any suggestions?

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I am sorry to hear all that. Certainly didn't want to hurt you but by the story you are giving - looks like something IS wrong there. I don't have any more suggestions. Sorry.

I was reading through 2012 Jan-Feb posts - we had such a good time.

During 2012, NVC notices were an advance notice of coming PD movements. Dates did not go as far as NVC notices went eventually - still - NVC notices for advanced dates are a good thing to happen.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

imdeng,

USCIS might have got some hint on date movement from 'O' before sending these random mass RFEs and he eventually messed up everything by misunderstanding the whole situation. Imagine, our case file already has '3' I-693s sitting, and one more next year would be like killing us bluntly. I do think we cannot predict anything out of their actions (both DoS and USCIS).

I think dates might move beyond may 2010 next year at the end of the 4th quarter, but, how far would depend upon, how far next year's CoD movement is going to go.

Without FB extra visas, we may closely end up at Dec2009 next year.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I'm not sure if someone answered your question. Essentially the rule is if there is any wastage on the FB side (due to whatever reason), it HAS TO get transferred to EB in the next fiscal year. It cannot be used by FB in the next year. Hence by the end of a fiscal year (i.e. Sept), CO has a pretty good idea of FB usage and can use some of the overflow in Oct / Nov. Mind you the "official" figures don't come out till Jan/ Feb of the following calendar year.

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Thanks for the information !

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I am sorry to hear all that. Certainly didn't want to hurt you but by the story you are giving - looks like something IS wrong there. I don't have any more suggestions. Sorry.

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There is nothing wrong with my case. There are many like me from 2008 who were left (based on trackit discussion threads and not from the tracker). I guess it all depends on luck

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Originally Posted by gc2008

There is nothing wrong with my case. There are many like me from 2008 who were left (based on trackit discussion threads and not from the tracker). I guess it all depends on luck

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Sure. All the best.