Reforming Employment-Based Immigration - NFAP Policy Brief Aug 2011
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Guys, the thumb rule mentioned by Q, Veni above, makes greater truth when economy is like current. With improvement n boom in economy, I would go more with 6 month movement (12k).
But then in later years, the demand per year itself maybe less, so 12k cud move further.
This of course doesnt take into account porting.
I also think there is increasing chatter about immigration changes needed, n as someone posted earlier, given the right breeding ground, it will happen, I think in the next 10 years.
Fingers crossed.
- PERM labor stopped
- CIS relaxing of deportation of illegals
- White house pursing DREAM act
Could the above be signs of clearing of the existing EB backlog (EB1/EB2/EB3) ? for fresh intake of DREAM act applications ?
I agree with mesan123. I am not too sure if my colleague filed with LCA or not. I wanted to let the forum know that H1B extensions are not impacted with unavailability of PWD, at least not for those folks who have approved PERM and 140.Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
1. Was due to court case for H2
2. Election coming up, want to appease
3. Being pushed very heavily by hispanic groups, WH already on board since long, but cant get all to agree
In my opinion, nothing to do with EB.
Good brainstorming though!
Quote:
Originally Posted by PlainSpeak
That's the reason I had a PD of Aug 2008 = Summer 2013. Best case, its PD+4.5 yrs which makes is Winter 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Its interesting timing for my professional career. Around that time, I'll have to make a choice about whether or not I want to pursue a partnership in my Firm (management consultant) or switch jobs to a regular company.
Recently Few Companies like CTS/Qualcom applying for GC in EB1 category. Looks like there is a loophole in EB1, companies showing them as Multinational Managers. Its ridiculous. There are no. of guys having better/best experience & have been waiting in EB2/EB3. Is there anyway to escalate to USCIS ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandeep2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
True. Upgraded my H1B to Premium after the disappointing sept. bulletin release. Got approved a week later for 3 yrs : EVC model : 9 + 3yr.extensionQuote:
Originally Posted by Sandeep2011
True...but this EBI case filling by this companies are happening from last quater of 2007. It is not something new...i feel USCIS also is aware of this(My personal View)......
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiasunil
I do try to follow the thread(much better than other immi forums out there)..But most of your posts seem to suggest that the outlook is bleak for EB2 this coming year? Isn't Myurthy's thread contradicting your statements?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Two things I take care while I predict anything:
1) I try to stick to facts and avoid optimism or pessimism.
2) I never try to align myself with what others are saying. I try to align myself with Facts.
So I do not really know what Murthy is saying that is contradicting with me or what you think is pessimistic in what I am saying. Would be helpful if you clarify then only I can respond more intelligently. Besides, whether I come across as an optimist or pessimist is a function of one's own viewpoint too :) Sure you would agree w at that!
Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
Right..Should have been clearer..Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
A lot of your posts seem to suggest that 2011 may not be good in terms of movement for EB2 I.
Murthy.com says there will be 'noticable movement' for EB2 I this coming year..
The optimist in me wants to believe the latter statement
I have maintained that the movement will be anywhere between Oct 2007 - Apr 2008 for full year in 2012. I have also said that because of the backlog coming to an end, the dates will move much sooner than usual May timeline.
Again ... that is just based on what I know today, will change over time. One can see that optimistic or pessimistic. And I wouldn't have a problem with somebodys viewpoint.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
There is nothing new in this. When the applications are close to running out they have to move the dates fwd. The only conclusions that I can draw areQuote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
1. If lawyers are saying BTM rather than small movements or current then maybe they have some inside info on this.
2. This is another nail in the coffin of the "current" theory. That was always unlikely now even less.
Also nothing new in the timing. BTM has to happen this FY 2012 sometime and from the NVC fee receipts does look like it may hit June 2008. My guess would be sometime in Jan Feb 2012.
I'm sure you mean April 2008 not 2007, right? I'm hanging in there with PD of Dec 31st, 2007. In another year or 1.5 years from now, I might have to make a important career decision. waiting for my date....Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Oops .... corrected!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Q, this upcoming 1 year is probably the heaviest density seen yet. So approximating it to 24K maybe on the liberal side. IMHO there is 2.5K demand every month in this year from Apr 2007 to Apr 2008 for India + China EB2. Here Iam assuming 24K as the SOFAD not as backlog, 24K backlog reduction is ~ 30K SOFADQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.
- Assuming 8K as preadjudicated backlog is actually the best case scenario, let’s go with that.
- 4K PWMB till Aug 2007 is also a fair approximation.
- The range of backlog from Apr 2007 to 01-AUG-2007 is in the range of 16-18K.
- Now almost everyone across the board agrees that this year SOFAD of 30K represents the best ever or peak. The upcoming years SOFAD by most estimates maybe 24-25K.
- So the wiggle room ahead of 01-AUG-2007 say with 2kK SOFAD is 6-8K.
- This is only 3 months worth of movement so it makes the date at 01-OCT-2007 for actual GC issuance. I think Trackitt approvals in Q1 2012 will be a key indicator to monitor.
- The extra intake or gate opening is completely in the hypothetical domain they can be to a date much further. There are 2 key things to observe here, I140's are being processed very aggressively and in 2 quarters the backlog will be quite less, this comes at a critical time when the agencies will be estimating SOFAD, almost surely Q1 2010 may not yield any SOFAD for Q1 atleast. The other issue is the prevailing wage issue that is working in our favor right now, however unless this goes on for months it may not cause any significant impact, prevailing wage is one of the earlier steps of perm it takes 2-3 months after that. Any delays here will be largely neutralized by faster I140 process this will be a factor if it extends for say another 3-4 months.
Teddy and Q your analysis has been great so far and hope it continues. What I want to bring to your attention isQuote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
1. Cases that are abandon due to person having left the country or simply upgraded their status. How many of these could there be? Remember the Karzian memo took effect this year. I am sure lot of PWMB might fall into this criteria. My guess for PWMB is only 2K.
2. Once we get to Aug 1 is there a way for USCIS and DOL to make sure all I140s are active? My answer is no and hence I feel like they might move the dates to find out actually how many I140s are active. I am not talking about GC assurance but of EADs.
Your comments please.
Trackitt trend updated in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716
In summary the trend is a bit confusing when compared to the September-non-movement. We should be seeing much more EB1 EB2ROW approvals. But they are not there. The good news is - there shouldn't be any retrogression whatsoever. The other news (not necessarily bad one) is if EB1 EB2ROW don't show uptick in approvals then either EB3 should see some spillover (which I really doubt) or it means PWMB+Portings were higher than we thought they were. Or of course the third possibility of wasting visas (which again I doubt). Sometimes I wonder, by not moving dates has DoS/USCIS boxed itself in a bit of a tricky situation?
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think you need to re-upload the image in a larger size. It is too difficult to read.
I think I mentioned this earlier - Although your table says SOFAD, it is actually Spillover, since it does not include the 5.6k normal allocation. I know the text makes this clear.
For the PWMB's 2K maybe a very low figure to assume, only a few may have left or may have upgraded to Eb1 or left. So probably 4K or say 3.5K is a good figure to stay with I agree that for EAD and 485 filing the dates will be further ahead to the date for actual GC issuance. It will be interesting to se how USCIS - DOS go about this and how much of buffer they want. If actual GC issuance date is 01-OCT-2007 then the intake may well be till the end of 2007. For most people EAD /AP is more important than actual GC especially true for those waiting just to file because of H1B is becoming difficult.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
As per Sep 2011 demand data EB2IC had backlog of 8,000. Since the date didn't advance I am assuming the backlog is still 8000. Now the EB2IC quota for 2012 is approx 5600 for EB2IC.So I guess only during the spillover quarter (starting May 2012) we can see the PD crossing Aug 2007.
Am i understanding it right?
Deb
Teddy
I actually agree w a lot of things you say (i.e. rationale). What is not so much agreeable (and very little is debatable given the lack of data) is the magnitude of each of the component you quote.
PWMB - I am much more inclined to say is probaby 2-3K max.
Portings - 3K max
Also I think next year ROW will yield 2K more than this year since they seem to be clearing their backlog this year. Same with EB1 - the entire 14K or so we saw this year will NOT go away. We will continue to see 8K or so next year. And as a result overall SOFAD next year - I only see coming down by 4-5K. However the confidence level in anything at this point of time is so low ..... its not worth debating the differences.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I do think #1 is a very possible scenario. But I think the magnitude of such cases will be low since people are resilient and will find any reason to hang on to their application.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
As per #2, I believe (just a gut feel) that USCIS/DoS do have some mechanisms to ensure that employment/application is active. Even if they don't, I think they have all the capacity required to push through good number of applications in short amount of time to meet teh quota. Remember we are talking about EB which is 10% or less of their annual green card processing capacity. So they don't have to fine tune their numbers to n'th degree. They can with one stroke go forward and backward and get all the cases they need.
Thanks spec.. yes it is not SOFAD. Corrected the size, but not sure if it is still any better. will keep trying..Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
That is unfortunately so very correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Teddy,Quote:
Posted by TeddyKoochu
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.
Agree with most things you said other than above. The assumption that people will port only when they see that their date is current in EB2 may not be right. Its been quite clear for atleast the last 3 years that EB3 is 5 years behind EB2 (minimum). I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.
Also assuming I am person A who has PD of April1 '07 EB3. If I see my date go current in Sep bulletin and decide that I should port to EB2, I willing to bet a sizable sum that Person A will not be able to port within FY 2012, forget before spillover starts. I dont know about desi consulting companies since I never worked for one but I have filed 2 labors and each time its taken me 10 mnths after I joined the company to get my labor filed, and this is after both the companies initiated the process pretty much within 2-3 months of me joining, so if I am someone who has to switch a job to port it should take well over a year.
GCLongwait I agree w this. As long as economy is south this is going to be true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
But some people can become eligible for porting with time, e.g. they do not have 5 years of progressive experience at this point of time but might gain that over time and becomes a candidate for porting 2 - 3 years down the line. Just a thought!
Any EB3IC post EB2IC current date is not much of an impact today. Those with dates prior to EB2IC current date ie. 15 March 2007 in this case is what will impact EB2IC.
Most of them already qualify with 5 Yr rule given how much time has lapsed between 2007 and today. So those who could would already have done so. There will be some trickle in future too. But unless economy improves I just don't see how EB3 portings will stay flat to 2011 let alone increase.
p.s. - EB3 ROW on the other hand has totally changed tracks. Very few if any file EB3ROW. They are opting to go for EB2. Which is why EB2ROW was not the #1 contributor to SOFAD previous year or this year and I don't expect it to do so in 2012 as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Do you see a possibility of EB2 ROW becoming retrogressed? Correct me if I am wrong but it this happens, any spillover will first have to go to EB2 ROW due to 7% per country limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That is going to be difficult given teh state of economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by superdesi2100
Teddy & Q,
I've read your comments with interest. In many ways I think I have a view somewhere in the middle.
As far as SOFAD for FY2012 goes, I would see it somewhere in the range 20-25k.
Although the 12k EB1/EB2-non IC approvals we have heard about will reduce the backlog, it is only reducing it to the extent that it built up this year due to slower processing. Even then, the entire FY2011 created backlog for EB1 doesn't look like it will be eliminated. I don't think that is a big deal, since I don't see the backlog being released in FY2012 either.
The PERM figures for EB2-non IC suggest they can support at least the level of I-485 approvals to be seen this year, although I would like to see the Q3 FY2011 PERM figures.
Porting is a terribly difficult subject. When Porting started in earnest, there were several years worth of people to port and we have seen a lot from 2004 onwards. As time goes by, the % left that cannot port for various reasons increases. The forward movement of the Cut Off Dates for EB2-IC is also a limit to those that count towards visas used.
I guess we will get some idea of this year's level when DOS release the Report of the Visa Office. Until then, I will stick to a figure at the lower end of about 4k to cover all unknowns.
In my own figures, I have allowed a fairly generous 32% for 2007 PERM certifications that never make it to I-485 approvals due to I-140 denial, drop outs etc and a 60:40 split for EB2:EB3. It will be a personal view whether people think this is too much or not enough.
On that basis, the following table shows the Cut Off Dates that would be reached for a minimum of 20k SOFAD and a maximum of 25k for various levels of Porting.
------------------- 20k SOFAD ------ 25k SOFAD
3k Porting ------- 1/8 Nov 07 ------ 15 Jan 08
4k Porting ----- 15/22 Oct 07 ----- 1/8 Jan 08
5k Porting ------- 1/8 Oct 07 --- 15/22 Dec 07
6k Porting ----- 15/22 Sep 07 ----- 1/8 Dec 07
If DOS want to create a buffer then 1-2 months extra might be possible.
Only the more optimistic scenarios reach 2008, so I would say sometime in Q4 2007 seems most likely, based on the information we have to date.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
Actually I intended to say about effective porting, i.e. a person who ports when his date is current. Now since the dates for EB2-I are so close virtually every porting case is effective. I agree with you that the gap between EB2 and EB3 has remained in the range of 4-5 years over the last 2 years so nothing significant has changed in that regard. Many people have been trying to port and after 2010 it became clearer that porting is the way out for all later EB3 PD's. The estimates for porting have been quite varied from 3-6K and EB3 backlog is in the 55K - 60K range. Following people will port a) People who have completed 5 years of experience post bachelors, in fact everyone who was able to file in the Jul 2007 fiasco in Eb3 has completed 5 years since then b) Many people are in the process of doing masters in the last 2 years c) Many people are trying to convince the current employers to file another EB2 application d) Many people are trying to change employers or have already made the change and are trying to port. I think the bottom-line is that this number may plateau only it will not come down anytime soon. So the range of 3-6K will stay for a couple of years.
Per Dashboard, 29,535 I-140s now pending nationally. Seems to have reduced. We are now below the 30k.
The trend chart is showing a sharp decline, almost at same slope level as the increase in beginning of the year.
Processing times update on August 17th.
Texas service center is stuck in Oct-Sep 2010 for 140, while Nebraska is saying 4 months for all 140s.
Per dashboard, 2/3 rd almost of all pending 140 is with Texas, while 1/3rd almost is with Nebraska.
Is it indicative of their inefficiency or could it be simply because Texas has been asked to handle 2/3rd volume?Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Yes, it will be interesting to see the activity of July-Aug-Sep, later on in the year. That would indicate if really they utilized the period for backlog reduction, and the supposed 12k hidden demand materialization was not a cry wolf situation.
Texas I see has, in May-June, 2 months, has had net reduction of 6k 140s from pending status.
They have almost 21k with them. Combined with the fact that PERM is down due to the H2 mess, and no new much influx of EB2 I/C PWMB 140/485s, if they continue this kind of trend, they could very well play catch up with Nebraska around Q2 FY 2012. USCIS may also choose to offload more new 140 incoming to Nebraska to help Texas. Nebraska already showing a net increase instead of a net decrease. Inspite of that, it just might be enough for Nebraska to have a claim of 4 months for processing time for 140.
This means, as Teddy said above, during the crucial Quarters of FY 2012 wherein agencies extrapolate SO, there would be bad indications, which may not necessarily be entirely truth indicative, may also be false positives. But this may lead to starting SO season late, then as compared to the early of May this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, I believe the porting + PWMB is higher, it may not be the only reason, but it sure must be more than the total 3k assumed.
Long back I asked if it's possible for DOS to issue a correction to a visa bulletin, when they realized they made a miscalculation. They did so in July 2007 fiasco, but people balked and had to take it back :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It truly was an extraordinary event. Of course we wish it happened this time too. But its hoping against hope.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
Certified/Expired
Q1 - 18,288
Q2 - 16,873
Q3 - 12,744
Total - 47,905
Doesn't quite stack up with the 63% increase in applications, unless the backlog is increasing.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Good, Finally Q3 PERM data is out!
June PERM Fact Sheet was referring increase in receipts and also 22,200 active PERM cases pending as of 05/31/2011.