EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

07-13-2011, 10:49 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
I am in agreement with your EB2C numbers but little confused with 7.8k EB2I calculation for Aug-Dec2007.
Just looking at PERM data for that period EBC:EBI is 1:4, if we take same E2:EB3 ratio for both I&C then EB2I demand for the same period should be 4 times EBC demand? am I missing sth ?

Veni,

I am basing the figures on the real life conversion ratio seen in Jan-July 2007. I think that is fair for the remainder of 2007, but I don't use it beyond then.

Although the PERM figures show a 4 to 1 ratio, there seem to be different conversion rates to I-485 for China and India.

We know the reality in the USCIS Inventory and Demand Data for 2007 to date is that the ratio of I-485 cases is nearer 2 to 1 for India to China.

I have taken that into account, as well as the actual monthly totals individually for China and India in the period August to December 2007.

If I use exactly the same figures in August to December 2007 as Jan to July 2007, the India number rises to 9.1k, if that helps you.

Possibly my China figures might be slightly high and India's slightly low post July 2007, but I don't think by huge margins.
07-14-2011, 07:06 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I am basing the figures on the real life conversion ratio seen in Jan-July 2007. I think that is fair for the remainder of 2007, but I don't use it beyond then.

Although the PERM figures show a 4 to 1 ratio, there seem to be different conversion rates to I-485 for China and India.

We know the reality in the USCIS Inventory and Demand Data for 2007 to date is that the ratio of I-485 cases is nearer 2 to 1 for India to China.

I have taken that into account, as well as the actual monthly totals individually for China and India in the period August to December 2007.

If I use exactly the same figures in August to December 2007 as Jan to July 2007, the India number rises to 9.1k, if that helps you.

Possibly my China figures might be slightly high and India's slightly low post July 2007, but I don't think by huge margins.

Spec,
Agree, conversion ratios are different for I&C. I am comfortable with your second approach (EBI Jan-July'07 PERM vs i485) than the first.
07-14-2011, 08:08 AM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

You seem to have time now (to waste)..in your very first post you said discussing about porting is waste of time :)..just kdding

I said discussing about porting and predicting the count of porting is waste of time. Instead wait till the next demand data is released and then make calculation not prediction.

A smile and Just kidding at the end of your statement does not make your post any less arrogant and destable. Instead of insulting others here on this forum which has some decorum why dont you try doing the same in another forum (which wil not be named ...) where actions such as yours are welcome nay thrived upon.
07-14-2011, 08:15 AM
familyguy

Spec,
If all May 2007 cases are cleared then as per USCIS inventory EB2C will have around 2346 cases (June 2007 - 558 and July 2007 - 1788)... Not sure how you got 3.2K?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of May 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 3.2k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 4.4k.

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of June 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 1.9k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.1k.

In both cases, the number of remaining pre-adjudicated cases is enough to use the new allocation uin FY2012 ntil the PWMB cases are ready to adjudicate and the overall total is also more than the initial yearly 7% allocation.

This means that EB2-C would not run out of demand until Spillover Season and wouldn't have moved beyond July 2007 by that point.

Since EB2-I would have an earlier Cut Off Date at that point, EB2-I and EB2-C Cut Off Dates could only move together beyond the backlog, which would happen during Spillover Season (assuming enough spare visas), so no advance warning of how DOS intended to handle it would come from EB2-C.

I calculate new demand for EB2-C for the period August-December 2007 would be around 3.6k max, compared to India's 7.8k.
07-14-2011, 08:44 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by familyguy

Spec,
If all May 2007 cases are cleared then as per USCIS inventory EB2C will have around 2346 cases (June 2007 - 558 and July 2007 - 1788)... Not sure how you got 3.2K?

familyguy,

Good spot! Maybe I was being numerically dyslexic and meant 2.3k at the time! I don't know.

It should read 2.4 - 2.5k. From June 2011 USCIS Inventory (June - 545, July - 1,718, August - 168)

I will edit the original posting.

Thanks.
07-14-2011, 09:15 AM
neospeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Spillover from EB2-ROW last year was not 12.5, however you define it.

Spillover in FY2010 was made up as follows:

EB1 ------ 2,062
EB2-M ---- 2,199
EB2-P ------ 854
EB2-ROW -- 6,597 --- EB2-ROW-M-P -- 9,650
EB5 ------ 8,812
Total --- 20,524

Of this 20,434 was used by EB2-IC.

Thanks Spec for the detailed breakup of numbers.

Just wondering how the spillover happens, are there any rules when they are going to apply vertical spillover vs horizontal spillover?.

Just wondering if horizontal spillover only happens during last two months of fy. any thoughts
07-14-2011, 09:23 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I said discussing about porting and predicting the count of porting is waste of time. Instead wait till the next demand data is released and then make calculation not prediction.

A smile and Just kidding at the end of your statement does not make your post any less arrogant and destable. Instead of insulting others here on this forum which has some decorum why dont you try doing the same in another forum (which wil not be named ...) where actions such as yours are welcome nay thrived upon.

Thanks for polite response. If you read your post again you also predicted some numbers.
07-14-2011, 09:23 AM
indiasunil

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...letin-and.html

Find detailed explanation on Calculations.
07-14-2011, 09:28 AM
familyguy

Spec, You are preeminent in number crunching :)... I think it was just a typo...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

familyguy,

Good spot! Maybe I was being numerically dyslexic and meant 2.3k at the time! I don't know.

It should read 2.4 - 2.5k. From June 2011 USCIS Inventory (June - 545, July - 1,718, August - 168)

I will edit the original posting.

Thanks.
07-14-2011, 09:32 AM
ssvp22

Is there a possibility that EB2C gets current, in Q1-Q3 2012 FY, while India being retrogressed? If yes, that can lead to EB2C PWMBs and the rest to file 485. Will that impact EB2I in any way?
07-14-2011, 09:38 AM
pdfeb09

August Visa Bulletin is out <EOM>

August Visa Bulletin is out <EOM>

EB2IC = 15 Apr 07

Congrats to all who will be current come August !
07-14-2011, 09:47 AM
soggadu

So have all the guru's reached a conclusion that in FY 2011 we dont see India going > July 07 ?? People after july need to wait till next year Q2 or Q3?...
07-14-2011, 09:48 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdfeb09

August Visa Bulletin is out <EOM>

EB2IC = 15 Apr 07

Congrats to all who will be current come August !

yes it is... nothing exciting in that bulletin... but Q and some others got electric... so somethings better than nothing... something to celebrate...
07-14-2011, 10:55 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

So have all the guru's reached a conclusion that in FY 2011 we dont see India going > July 07 ?? People after july need to wait till next year Q2 or Q3?...

This is just my personal opinion ~ 30K SOFAD has already been applied and probably around 2-3K maybe left. The date movement will be in the range 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007. The chances of large date movement are significantly less so have to wait really for the next spillover season / fresh intake.
07-14-2011, 11:13 AM
imechanix

I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.
07-14-2011, 11:22 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by imechanix

I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.

You are on the way to become Ramanujan 2.0
07-14-2011, 11:30 AM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Thanks for polite response. If you read your post again you also predicted some numbers.

If you see my post you will notice that I did not say (predict) 9 k or 15 k or 1k. I stated 6 k based on hard facts by the number crunchers out here and the demand data.
In any case all this back and forth doees not make any sense so will it make you happy if i just say you are right and end it here.
07-14-2011, 11:37 AM
GC-Utopic

Spec, R u lrindy from trackitt by any chance? just curious because of the usage of the word "whilst" by both, which I dont see very often,, It doesnt bother me either way, U rock!!!, v r lucky to hv u r insights,,, cheers,,

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

familyguy,

Good spot! Maybe I was being numerically dyslexic and meant 2.3k at the time! I don't know.

It should read 2.4 - 2.5k. From June 2011 USCIS Inventory (June - 545, July - 1,718, August - 168)

I will edit the original posting.

Thanks.
07-14-2011, 11:50 AM
srinu_chirala

Thanks for updates.... Teddykoochu is rock.
07-14-2011, 11:58 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

This is just my personal opinion ~ 30K SOFAD has already been applied and probably around 2-3K maybe left. The date movement will be in the range 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007. The chances of large date movement are significantly less so have to wait really for the next spillover season / fresh intake.

Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

Quote:

This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.
This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times.

However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.
07-14-2011, 11:59 AM
qesehmk

I think we all were reasonably close anyway. I think as of now we just dont have enough evidence to rule out 3-4 months movement in September. But I am going to rule out completely any talk of FD to EB3. That's for sure.

So as far as SFM (sustainable forward movement) for EB2IC is concerned ... it wouldnt be imprudent to expect another 6 weeks movement. i.e. 1 Jun 2007. Anything beyond that would be a bit stretch.

As far as BTM (big temporary movement) for EB2IC is concerned ... that would ONLY be possible if next month there an SFM of at least 8 weeks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

So have all the guru's reached a conclusion that in FY 2011 we dont see India going > July 07 ?? People after july need to wait till next year Q2 or Q3?...

Quote:

Originally Posted by imechanix

I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.

With all teh anti-immigrant sentiment, it would be interesting to see if the correlation holds as economy bounces!
07-14-2011, 12:01 PM
leo4ever

Thats a different and intresting thought. But Dow Jones or Nasdaq is not a good indicator of economy i guess.
I still think its intresting though..

Quote:

Originally Posted by imechanix

I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.
07-14-2011, 12:23 PM
qesehmk

plainspeak, not to take sides with suninphx .... but he has been around for a while and I haven't seen him engage in nasty behavior. So may be ... just may be ... give him some benefit of doubt.

Thanks for your contributions.
07-14-2011, 12:23 PM
Stemcell

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

Spec,

This is my main question. Lets say all the pending applications for EB1 and EB2ROW are approved in 2012, will there be any spillover left for EB2IC for 2012 ?
Looks like with PD of October 07 i missed out this year but i want to know where i stand next year ....
Thanks again.
07-14-2011, 12:40 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemcell

Spec,

This is my main question. Lets say all the pending applications for EB1 and EB2ROW are approved in 2012, will there be any spillover left for EB2IC for 2012 ?
Looks like with PD of October 07 i missed out this year but i want to know where i stand next year ....
Thanks again.

I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page