bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
~49k should be both EB2&EB3.
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bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
~49k should be both EB2&EB3.
Yes, my badQuote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks for correcting me Veni
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agree, and most of 140 backlog buildup started from FY2010.
Also,
FY 2011 (Q1+Q2) 140 completions ~= 35k
FY 2011 (Q3) 140 completions ~= 27k
At current pace and little more delay in PERM filings (PWD delay), USCIS may be able to caught-up with all 140 backlogs by Q1-2012!
The I-526 figures are also interesting.
Receipts YOY are 200% of last year and heading for 175-180% more for a full year.
Completions haven't kept up with that pace, so Pending applications have doubled during the year (although still only a modest 2.6k including those waiting for Customer Action).
Completion numbers are showing the beginnings of an upward trend to keep pace with current Receipt levels.
At the 78.2% approval rate for I-526 and the known 2.9 I-485 per I-526, the backlog represents 5.9k EB5 visas.
The current rate of Receipts (avge. 335/month over last 4 months) would give lead to 3.1k I-526 approvals per year and 9.1k EB5 visas if nothing changed. Probably that worst case might not be reached.
Also bear in mind that the last known use of EB5 in FY2010 of 1.9k stems from a period when receipts were 1/3 of the current level.
We already know that an estimated 2.1k were used in the first half of FY2011.
It is a little early to be sure, but I think we can probably expect much higher numbers of EB5 visas to be used in the future, especially as USCIS have put measures in place to speed up processing.
Veni & Q thanks for your analysis. The backlog in Q3 decreased from 34K in April to 29K in June. The number of completions in Jun 9.4K is virtually double of Feb completions of 4.8K. Since the Aug & Sep bulletins did not show much movement its indicative of the fact that several concurrently filed EB2 ROW and EB1 cases became eligible for approvals it correlates very well with the I140 approval trend. You are correct if the current pace of approvals continues then by the end of Q1 2012 i.e. Dec the I140 backlog might reduce significantly. The key factor will really be the rate of incoming i140 and 485 applications, this surge has the potential to fully consume the entire EB2 ROW and EB1 cap for Q1 at the minimum or even significant part of the Q2 cap at maximum. With this trend continuing we might see the lower projection of SOFAD in 2012. There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India, China might move though.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Following is a rough demand picture
1) Preadjudicated cases - 8K.
2) PWMB - 4K
3) Expected porting that will come constantly over the year 6K, we should stick with 6k because with Eb2-I being at 15th Apr 2007 potentially more people from EB3 can port and expect to get approved right away.
If we add these 3 the demand till 01-SEP-2007 is ~ 18K. Now the trend for I140 is not in favor of SOFAD because they are being approved at an alarming rate. The SOFAD in the upcoming year is expected to be in the range 20K - 30K (This year’s SOFAD). The current rate of approval of I140 will push the SOFAD very close to the lower end, the Aug and September bulletin freeze is a part of his trend. This way this year may end 01-OCT-2007. Only in the best case scenario with the current information is there is a chance of crossing 2007 this year for GC approvals, intake is totally hypothetical and maybe till a point much further if and when it happens, however there seems to be no possibility at all of any intake before Q3. Also the approval rate in Q1 2012 on Trackitt for EB2 ROW and EB1 will be a critical indicator.
I spoke that too early...we are getting acquired againnnnnnnnnnnnn :)
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.
Thanks.
imechanix,Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
Not only porting but also EB2ROW demand depends on several factors.....
1. How long this temporary PWD suspension going to last (1 month, 2 months...1 quarter?)
2. Once PWD is restored, there will be a surge in PERM filings
3. How fast DOL can handle this surge, followed by 140 processing by USCIS
4. Volume of porting/EB2ROW in the current 140 backlog
5. How much porting/EB2ROW from the current 140 backlog will be cleared this year.
This delay is happening at a off peak time relative to the Sofad season. So even if it lasts for a few more days to a month more it will not impact volumes as they have 10 months to recoup. However in the interest of those whose H1 extensions are approaching I hope they resolve at the soonest possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
Congratulations to you and your family tikkahyd. How long did it take for you to receive your cards after your filed your 485.Quote:
Originally Posted by tikkahyd
Not sure where you got this info. Per the HR of my company H1 are not affected by this.Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
Thanks Sandeep !!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandeep2011
Applied my 485 during the july fiasco .. so approximately 4 years ..
Reg effect on H1,in my opinion this would affect only those people who are on their 6th year of H1 and want to apply for Labor so that they can use it for H1 extension using AC21. This should not affect H1 extensions for people who already have Labor or who are in their 3rd year of H1 and want to extend to 6 years. Just my market depreciated 2 cents...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
From Murthy.com Website.
Conclusions and Considerations for FY12
There were no predictions in the Visa Bulletin for the start of FY12 on October 1, 2011. The EB2 India and China advancement at the end of FY11, and the resulting I-485 case approvals, should make a noticeable impact in the pending I-485 inventory for EB2 India and China. This, hopefully, will avoid any need to retrogress the cutoff dates in these categories, and, potentially, allow for at least some forward movement.
The interesting prospect for the upcoming fiscal year is the complete absence of any pending India and China EB2 I-485s with priority dates after mid August 2007. Since cutoff dates are based on predictions of supply and demand, if enough of the older, long-pending I-485 cases are approved, the cutoff date may have to be advanced to fill the "pipeline" with more cases. Thus, at some point, there is likely to be a noticeable, temporary advancement in the EB2 category for India and China in order to allow for additional case filings.
imechanix thanks. Murthy quote is kind of vague .... but nonetheless also contains something we have consistently maintained (in bold below).
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
I agree, the statement echoes what we have already discussed before. Except instead of BTM they use NTA (Noticeable Temporary Advancement. :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yes.
And may be I should have been more clear too. I think the reason it is vague is it kind of vaguely refers to the fact that existing 485 inventory is coming to an end for EB2IC. But doesn't really talk about portings or PWMB or the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW still have significant demand in pipeline and in future or EB5 situation that Spec outlined just yesterday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
with a PD of Jan/2008, It pretty much seems like I have to wait at least two more years to get EAD/GC... its very frustrating :(
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
As Teddy pointed out we have a known 18K(8K remaining inventory+4K PWMB+6K Porting) potential demand for 2012. So I agree with family guy that it looks more like 2013 for PD Jan'2008. In fact my PD is 03-OCT-07 and I really have doubts if I will be able to make it in 2012. As Spec pointed EB5 spillover will be lesser next year ..Q and other gurus ..what's your best estimate for SOFAD for 2012?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
pls check the header. Beyond that at this time at least I am not comfortable saying anything .... the simple reason being ... unless you know where 2011 ended the range of prediction is just too wide to be meaningful. Basically I think the range indeed could be Oct 2007 to Apr 2008. Jan 2008 is not such a wild scenario at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Thanks Q for encouraging words... :)
b/n nice article in politico...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61710.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Good article! Scanned it quickly though. I have always felt that if an immigration reform has to take place the best conditions are - second term, republican president and economy doing well. 2007 fiacso as somebody pointed out (gcseeker?) was one such perfect place. Hence the movement. On the other hand current conditions are the worst conditions first term, democratic president and economy on antarctica!
Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
with current political situation and economy, chances of Obama becoming a second term president is less than 50%.. which means there is no hope for CIR in near future... hei baghwan plz bachao!!!!
any ways, happy friday guys :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
First two years of Obama had Democrats in control of both champers of Congress. Obama had promised to bring CIR in the first year of his presidency. Democrats are bigger culprits than Republicans when it comes to legal immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
EB5 demand in the pipe line is definitely a concern. But, with almost freeze on EB2IC movement in last two bulletins, i am not exactly sure how much EB5 backlog will be cleared this year itself!
Another trend we need to look into is the EB5 receipts, it looks like, May and June show a downward trend and with the current economic situation, I am not sure if monthly EB5 receipts are going to stay around 300 number?
P.S: FY2009, when the economy went south, EB5 monthly receipts are in double digits only.
Veni
I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I agree..another thing to watch is people filling H1b's are coming down drastically...it is already end of August and only 25,300 applications filled till now..as the laws for H1b are getting tough and also with people on H1b's leaving the country with problems like H1b extensions and visa...
if the market is same like this for few years i feel the no of people filling for GC also will come down in EB2I/C catorgeries also....
Gurus can correct me...if my analysis is wrong
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Pfizer and Bank of America announced lay-offs in last 1 week, Economic situation and in general hiring is going to be slow if not reverted (there is 33% chance for global recession)
Very good point GCQ !!, why did the gov think someone wud want to do it, may be we need to interview the folks from this category :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
guys...i request everyone of you to please go through this link ( Non immigration )... Mods please remove this post once people get to know...
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=7809#post7809
Just an update on H1B extension - one of my colleagues filed for H1b extension on 10th Aug at VSC under premium processing, he received an email today from USCIS that his 129 (extension) has been approved. He was filing for extension beyond 6th year and already has an approved 140.Quote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
But looks like aug 2008 PD will be summer of 2013. Hopefully sooner but I'm getting less optimistic about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Here is a rule of thumb for me and I know others may disagree. But in general after vertical spillovers are cancelled, as far as EB2 is concerned 1 yr movement per year especially in this economy is very much possible.
The simple reason being - 1 Yr = approx 24K backlog.
EB5 usually would give 5-8K
EB2ROWMP - 2-10
EB1 - 0 - 10
EB2IC - 6K
------------
So the average case scenario is 23K. Pretty close to 1 Yr backlog. So for everybody - instead of trying to pessimistic or optimistic keep this rule of thumb in mind and then as we go ahead ... ask yourself which category is risk and accordingly what are your chances.
Being pessimistic is not a good strategy. I would rather be an optimist than a pessimist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Good news!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandeep2011
But PWD for LCA has been temporarily suspended from mid July, then how he come is able to apply for H1 extension. Did your colleague applied without LCA or with LCA.
The PWD is temporarily suspended only for PERM applications. You can file for H1b LCA. My company applied for my H1b extension LCA on 1st week of August and i got it and filled my H1b extension and waiting for approval..
Quote:
Originally Posted by nayekal
nice aplit of SOFAD for each year
One question Q...so each year based on each catogery applications we may get roughly around ~20K spillover + country quota...with this my PD(Feb 2011) will be current by end of 2015(4 years from now)....did i get it right..)i know these are estimates)
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Not only it should be current by then but you should have GC by then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
mesan,Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
If you look Q's post closely, ~23k include IC country quota.
As a thumb rule EB2I can expect to file for 485/GC in hand, 5 year from the PD.