EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Q,
quoted below from the header. Can we expect the spillover to start earlier than May in 2012 ? Starting spillover earlier is always a risk for DOS as they may run out of visas if surprise EB1 and EB2 row cases become qualified in the last quarter. Considering DOS's experience with EB1 this year, I feel DOS may start spillover only in July next year.

Quote:

---

In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012.

---

Q, thanks for the 2011 update and summary - very useful information. I was just wondering though about the last para:

"In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012."

Is this the general opinion now among the gurus, that we will most likely see a movement by Mar 2012, or are there still differing opinions about this? I've been following this thread religiously, so I know there was a lot of discussion about this, but I wasn't able to get a feel for what the consensus was....

gcq we will see as we go ahead. Not moving the dates early enough has the potential to waste visas.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gcq

Q,
quoted below from the header. Can we expect the spillover to start earlier than May in 2012 ? Starting spillover earlier is always a risk for DOS as they may run out of visas if surprise EB1 and EB2 row cases become qualified in the last quarter. Considering DOS's experience with EB1 this year, I feel DOS may start spillover only in July next year.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by essenel

Is this the general opinion now among the gurus, that we will most likely see a movement by Mar 2012, or are there still differing opinions about this? I've been following this thread religiously, so I know there was a lot of discussion about this, but I wasn't able to get a feel for what the consensus was....

---

I should make it clear this is not necessarily concensus. This is my "opinion".

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sidd21

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).

---

I submitted mine on july 1st..got receipt around 20th of july and fingerprint notice on Aug 1st for appointment date of Aug 29th..hope that helps..

as all gurus have been predicting that there will be no retrogression and with that no RFE's on your application..you should get GC in 4 months..I believe that is the current processing time..

NSC: Both our cases are approved on 08/11/2011. Received CP ordered notification email on 08/11/2011 and Welcome notices by snail mail on 08/13/2011. Waiting for Green Cards.
Many Thanks to Q, Teddy, Spec and other Gurus.
All the Best.

Congrats srini!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by srini1976

NSC: Both our cases are approved on 08/11/2011. Received CP ordered notification email on 08/11/2011 and Welcome notices by snail mail on 08/13/2011. Waiting for Green Cards.
Many Thanks to Q, Teddy, Spec and other Gurus.
All the Best.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sidd21

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).

---

FP is a significant thing. Once that is done (including background check), you should receive it in a couple of months max. If everything is in order ... I do agree 4 months you should be all set!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by srini1976

NSC: Both our cases are approved on 08/11/2011. Received CP ordered notification email on 08/11/2011 and Welcome notices by snail mail on 08/13/2011. Waiting for Green Cards.
Many Thanks to Q, Teddy, Spec and other Gurus.
All the Best.

---

Congratulations Srini.

Question for Gurus

I work for a management consulting company which also has a private equity subsidiary. My I-140 was sponsored by this private equity subsidiary, there are talks about merging this PE subsidiary back with larger managament consulting company. Will that have any impact on my I-140, which has already been approved? I will really appreciate some guidance on this. Thanks.

congratulations srini bhai...

It looks like it will have an impact on your I-140. The new company( who ever owns you) must file a I-140 amendment to your original, with successor of interest clause.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sandeep2011

Question for Gurus

I work for a management consulting company which also has a private equity subsidiary. My I-140 was sponsored by this private equity subsidiary, there are talks about merging this PE subsidiary back with larger managament consulting company. Will that have any impact on my I-140, which has already been approved? I will really appreciate some guidance on this. Thanks.

---

Murthy article on the PERM PWD pause.

http://murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.html

It says time-frames are uncertain as to when it will be back, and from this one, it looks like apart from H2, even GC and H1 extensions are affected. People needing H1 extension, better contact lawyer to remove any doubt.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

It looks like it will have an impact on your I-140. The new company( who ever owns you) must file a I-140 amendment to your original, with successor of interest clause.

---

Thanks Q, Leo. I have gone ahead and scheduled a meeting with my lawyer for next Monday. Will update the group after that. I am sure there will be several of us in similar situation given that M&A activities are picking up.

Hmm i see new terminology for all members now..it no longer mentions new members, members and guru....it represent like college years... nice change moderators :)

It will ding us to a certain extent, especially with the PP for EB1C leading to probably more SYA. But I don't think the trend is an increasing trend, it has always been like this. We can monitor situation on trackitt for new FY, when things start rolling for FY 2012. As of now, too early to say how big of an effect it will be. We can start with the assumption that everything is same as this year, and as situation unfolds, change that assumption.

Last year, the surprise help was from FB, then this year, Kazarian for EB1, let's keep fingers crossed that some other factor, like for eg: Economy, helps us this year next year, to achieve a high SOFAD.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by polarbear

My first post here. Great job by the experts in making sense out of this huge amount of data.

knight - i have also personally seen this happening and feel your pain. It is also being done in Intel and MS.

It does look like EB1C is going to be a silent killer.I have known tens of folks who got GCs within a year in this category and earlier my reaction used to be "its good that at least some companies are standing up for their employees...good for them". But over the last 2 years, the number has grown multifold and this category has turned into one big loophole.

---

You can add companies like Cognizant, Infosys etc to that list who are misusing the EB1 quota.I don't understand how managerial experience of 1 year can be equal to a PhD. It makes no sense at all. There should strict guidelines to follow for this category else people will slip under our nose and come out with GC within a year. I personally know few such people who are in CTS. Its simply nerve wrecking and pathetic.

Hypothetical Scenario & Question:

Scenario: As you know recently perm system went down & will not be up & running until October. Let's assume that in the coming quarter or next EB2 ROW demands becomes zero.

Question: Can CO use the argument he used in the last May bulletin "At this time the amount of demand being received in the EB2ROW is extremely low compared with that of recent years" & then decide to move EB2IC dates.

Good point. Theoretically it would be possible if DoS were using quaterly spillover. But they don't. However as we have seen they are capable of pulling any trick out of their hat. So I wouldn't rule it out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imechanix

Hypothetical Scenario & Question:

Scenario: As you know recently perm system went down & will not be up & running until October. Let's assume that in the coming quarter or next EB2 ROW demands becomes zero.

Question: Can CO use the argument he used in the last May bulletin "At this time the amount of demand being received in the EB2ROW is extremely low compared with that of recent years" & then decide to move EB2IC dates.

---

All,
Not to sidetrack but let us try to refocus here.

One issue that affects most of us while waiting forthe dates to be current is the Stamping issue. We all know about the exhaustive scrutiny and sadism that ishappening these days. I have a few questions:


1. The scrutiny seems to be extremely high for EmP-Vend-client models (EVC).
Does this model violate H1B rules? If yes, why is the USCIS approving it here at the first place. (ie. After verifying all documents by issuing an RFE)

2. This administrative processing seems robe a blackbox. No timeframe is given. Any suggestions on do's and dont's is greatly appreciated.

3. People in similar situations, please post your experiences with the following information.
- # of successful previous stampings
- model (EVC or DCdirect client)
- consulate name
- date
- response (successful/ RFE/ Admin Processing etc.)

Gurus - please create a new thread as it will be very helpful.

10102007,
You can start new thread from the link http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...IVE-DISCUSSION. Then click the button "+Post New Thread".

Guys ... just a reminder that the poll in the thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=7593#post7593 will close in next few days.

Posted: August 17, 2011

As of: June 30, 2011

NSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ----------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability -------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ---------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Unskilled worker ------------------------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW --------------- 4 months
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ----------------------- 28 January 2011


TSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------ 02 October 2010
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ---------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ----------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability ------------------------- 09 October 2010
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Unskilled worker --------------------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW ------ 28 September 2010
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ---------------------- 03 December 2010

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

The rumors may be wrong but my dead hopes came alive again. I am in Sep17 2007 EB2 I. Friends! your opinions please.. I did not know much abt the calculations though! At the end of the day, it is what it is..

My understanding is, starting October EB2I will get its own quota of 235 visas every month. If all the cases before Apr 15th 2007 are cleared by end of September and there are not many porting number, USCIS have to move the dates by a week or two.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kingcaeser

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kingcaeser

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

---

From which source do you hear this? Plz elaborate.

Guys, let's not speculate and face disappointment.

There's a decent breakdown on us-non-immigrant.blogspot.com---looked bit conservative, but I'd stick to that for now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kingcaeser

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

---

Thanks Spec!
TSC is so pathetic...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Posted: August 17, 2011

As of: June 30, 2011

NSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ----------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability -------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ---------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Unskilled worker ------------------------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW --------------- 4 months
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ----------------------- 28 January 2011


TSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------ 02 October 2010
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ---------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ----------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability ------------------------- 09 October 2010
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Unskilled worker --------------------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW ------ 28 September 2010
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ---------------------- 03 December 2010

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

Thanks Spec!
TSC is so pathetic...

---

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by evoori

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..

---

evoori,

I agree that the dates aren't necessarily totally representative, but then neither is a sample size of 2 cases! :p

For cases submitted to TSC as regular processing and approved in this FY to date, Trackitt gives a median of:

EB2-ALL - 178 days
EB2-India - 191 days

For NSC, the figures are:

EB2-ALL - 119 days
EB2-India - 120 days

All Service Centers

EB2-ALL - 156 days
EB2-India - 172 days


All Service Centers for approvals in FY2011

EB1A - 263 days - TSC - 272 - NSC - 207
EB1B - 184 days - TSC - 215 - NSC - 107
EB1C - 188 days - TSC - 189 - NSC - 184

Not perfect, but perhaps slightly more representative.

I'm afraid, I can't say it's misleading:) I'm first hand victim. I applied in October 2010, and my attorney had to withdraw the petition for some errors in the application, that the attorney realized after 8 months. I wouldn't blame the attorney much as the application was an amendment as part of my company's acquisition, it was complicated enough to mess up. My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. :)). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140 :)

Long story short...I'm still waiting for my 140 approval...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by evoori

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

evoori,

I agree that the dates aren't necessarily totally representative, but then neither is a sample size of 2 cases! :p

For cases submitted to TSC as regular processing and approved in this FY to date, Trackitt gives a median of:

EB2-ALL - 178 days
EB2-India - 191 days

For NSC, the figures are:

EB2-ALL - 119 days
EB2-India - 120 days

All Service Centers

EB2-ALL - 156 days
EB2-India - 172 days


All Service Centers for approvals in FY2011

EB1A - 263 days - TSC - 272 - NSC - 207
EB1B - 184 days - TSC - 215 - NSC - 107
EB1C - 188 days - TSC - 189 - NSC - 184

Not perfect, but perhaps slightly more representative.

---

Spec, aren't these dates as of June 30, 2011? So, possibly in last month and half TSC may have become better/faster in processing 485s given that we are approaching end of year for USCIS.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. :)). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140 :)

---

Leo, I will have to go through the same situation due to my company merger coming up during mid 2012. Is it a standard rule that one cannot file in premium processing for I 140 successor in interest amendment?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

I'm afraid, I can't say it's misleading:) I'm first hand victim. I applied in October 2010, and my attorney had to withdraw the petition for some errors in the application, that the attorney realized after 8 months. I wouldn't blame the attorney much as the application was an amendment as part of my company's acquisition, it was complicated enough to mess up. My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. :)). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140 :)

Long story short...I'm still waiting for my 140 approval...

---

yeh toh Deadlock ho gaye re baba....

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tikkahyd

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

---

Congratulations!

USCIS dashboard updated with June'11 data.

Shows significant effort to reduce 140 backlog!

tikka, congratulations. Always good to hear good news!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tikkahyd

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by veni001

USCIS dashboard updated with June'11 data.

Shows significant effort to reduce 140 backlog!

---

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

Agreed Q. However, the stats for the next couple of months could be misleading because of the temporarily suspension of processing of Wage determinations by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings. I guess this figure will be caught up once they start resuming this.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

---

Q

for fy2011 (till Q3) total 140 receipts 62822
we already know that EB1 140 receipts for fy2011 till July 19th is 13794

so Eb2 receipts for fy2011 are atleast 49028 and pending number from dashboard says 29535. So, may be the pending is mostly from Eb2.

The recently found demand for Eb1 and Eb2 ROW may have directly come from this 140 approval surge/reduction in pending (instead of working on 140s on FIFO basis, they must have sorted out EB1 and EB2 ROW )