EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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12-14-2018, 03:49 PM
tatikonda

I can understand your frustration.... Since, it is divided congress they should compromise and work on something.
once Dems take control over house, DACA will be heard everywhere and Trump wants Wall..
so they may get some compromise to appease base voters.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

There will most probably be no legislative action for the next six years and I really hope I am wrong. Back in the days when things were much less partisan and much less toxic, we couldn't get any thing done. The last bill on immigration was passed two decades ago. Even the country cap removal was in the works since 2007. Kenvin Yoder who sponsored HR392 lost the election and the bill will need to be re-introduced and found a sponsor. Plus democrats will not agree on a bill which just benefits high-skilled immigrants. They just won't. And even if we could get it past house (like it did in 2011), there will be major opposition from other countries because the bill is zero-sum. I am done fighting for it. My better option is to downgrade and jump to a quicker line.

Also, one thing none of us can predict is when the economy slows. So far the job market is robust but may be in an year's time it won't be and it will impact the filings. PERM filings will slow down, ROW will be current and if you and I are lucky enough to be still employed, we would be greened. But it's gonna be a slog.

Iatiam
12-14-2018, 05:04 PM
aquatican

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Everyone is talking about EB3I.. But for people like me, who ware just a couple of days away to become current under EB2I, this is very frustrating. They didn't move a day for EB2I FAD. Was this expected? When can we expect next movement in EB2I?

Ha. It would be so clear where you stand if we knew Pending Inventory. It seems almost planned that they are not releasing that. I am sure there is some other issue delaying the report but still the lack of transparency is alarming. I believe there was legislation forcing them to release the report?!
12-14-2018, 07:34 PM
lville

Here is situation PD May 22,2009 EB2-I

Just talked to my lawyer. Here is what we discussed: We will file downgrade to EB3 and request premium process for EB3 I-140. As per my lawyer most likely they wont accept that and will only consider regular process. The only silver lining in this case he said is that I could apply for adjustment of status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 approval is pending. According to him you don't need approved I-140 to get EAD and AP. As my FD date is current in EB3 he said we can apply for EAD and AP and just wait for I-140.

Its going to take another 6 months for my PD to be current in EB2 anyways and then add 6 more months to get EAD/AP, Thats close to an year in EB2.

Why not at least get EAD and AP in next 6 months under EB3 and wait for I-140. Plus according to my lawyer I cud use that AP for travel. So I've decided to port down to EB3.
12-14-2018, 10:03 PM
skpanda

Quote:

Originally Posted by lville

Here is situation PD May 22,2009 EB2-I

Just talked to my lawyer. Here is what we discussed: We will file downgrade to EB3 and request premium process for EB3 I-140. As per my lawyer most likely they wont accept that and will only consider regular process. The only silver lining in this case he said is that I could apply for adjustment of status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 approval is pending. According to him you don't need approved I-140 to get EAD and AP. As my FD date is current in EB3 he said we can apply for EAD and AP and just wait for I-140.

Its going to take another 6 months for my PD to be current in EB2 anyways and then add 6 more months to get EAD/AP, Thats close to an year in EB2.

Why not at least get EAD and AP in next 6 months under EB3 and wait for I-140. Plus according to my lawyer I cud use that AP for travel. So I've decided to port down to EB3.

u were current in 2012... did u miss the boat?
12-14-2018, 10:05 PM
monsieur

My PD is Aug 2010. Thru and Thru EB2-I guy. When I reached out to my firm's lawyer they told me following

1. Perm doesn't need to be filed to downgrade
2. I-140 can't be filed in premium and may take 6-8 months for approval.
3. Once I-140 is filed/approved for EB3. I can't move back to EB-2. My only option is to stick with EB3.

So they told me think about it before making any call on downgrade

Firm in question is Fragoman
12-15-2018, 06:48 AM
newyorker123

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsieur

My PD is Aug 2010. Thru and Thru EB2-I guy. When I reached out to my firm's lawyer they told me following

1. Perm doesn't need to be filed to downgrade
2. I-140 can't be filed in premium and may take 6-8 months for approval.
3. Once I-140 is filed/approved for EB3. I can't move back to EB-2. My only option is to stick with EB3.

So they told me think about it before making any call on downgrade

Firm in question is Fragoman

Curious - Why the I-140 cannot be filed in premium ?
Also, can you not file concurrent I-140/I-485 ?
12-15-2018, 12:26 PM
lville

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorker123

Curious - Why the I-140 cannot be filed in premium ?
Also, can you not file concurrent I-140/I-485 ?

As per attorney for USCIS to process I-140 under premium it has to be accompanied with Original PERM. When you downgrade from EB2 to EB3 you don't need PERM and as your downgrade petition does not have PERM with it, you cannot file it under premium.

However I read a blog somewhere that said if your downgrade petition (EB3) is filed at the same service center as your EB2 petition was, you could request for premium process. Not sure how accurate that info is. I asked my attorney and he said he's not aware of such thing and downgrade petition for I-140 can only be filed under regular process. He said we could request premium and see what happens.

The good thing for me he mentioned that under EB3 my PD (May 22,2009 India) is current for filing and we could apply for downgrade along with adjustment status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 can take it's sweet time. You don't need to have I-140 to request EAD/AP as long as your filing date is current in that category. I haven't traveled for last 5 yrs and all I care at this point is EAD/AP and GC can take its time.
12-15-2018, 09:11 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by lville

Here is situation PD May 22,2009 EB2-I

The only silver lining in this case he said is that I could apply for adjustment of status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 approval is pending. According to him you don't need approved I-140 to get EAD and AP. As my FD date is current in EB3 he said we can apply for EAD and AP and just wait for I-140.

If you are filling the I-485 for the first time and if this is true that you can file I-485 concurrently based on your EB2-I PD then I would suggest file it this Monday (meaning NO delays) without any second thought. Let us know your experience in this forum once you filed. It will be helpful to others here.
12-15-2018, 09:18 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by infotalk

Can you please share your analysis and expectation on when can we expect May 30 2009 in EB2 to be current based on the recent trend ? There is a very important Job decision I need to make this weekend.

Appreciate your help.

All I can say is there is NO hope for EB2-I in near future, not even 2009. Try get into I-485 status quickly instead even if it is thru EB3-I route.
12-15-2018, 09:25 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b

3. People who already ported to EB2 from EB3 are filing with EB3. Myself and couple of my colleagues are in this boat

Could you let us know your and your friends' experiences here that will help others. Are you just interfiling back to older EB-3 140 with same employer? OR filing 485 with EB-3I 140?
12-15-2018, 09:33 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

I know someone who had this, he was 2007 eb3 while she was late 2009 eb2 with ead in 2012. No camcelling or re-finig as far as i know. they just did interfile and got gc within a month or two.

Probably they just switched the primary I-140 to EB3I that's where the VISAs are abundantly available and they got the GCs quickly. That's a smart move.
If you get more info from their experiences it would help others here.
12-16-2018, 10:20 AM
rohanvus

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

All I can say is there is NO hope for EB2-I in near future, not even 2009. Try get into I-485 status quickly instead even if it is thru EB3-I route.

YTeleven,

You mean for Final Action Date or does your statement hold true even for filing dates as well ?

Also , do you see EB2-I filing date to be Jan 2012 in 5 years from now or that speculation is very very optimistic ?
12-16-2018, 04:45 PM
EB2/eb3

YTeleven, any idea why co is moving eb3 filing dates aggressively when there are so many ppl from 2007/2008 still waiting to be greened. Is he trying to build the inventory for fy19 or is he building for fy20 too?
12-16-2018, 10:26 PM
tenyearsgone

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

All I can say is there is NO hope for EB2-I in near future, not even 2009. Try get into I-485 status quickly instead even if it is thru EB3-I route.

YT .. that's depressing, but reality probably. Based on available numbers, do you think a movement of 3 months/yr is possible for 2009 for EB2I?
12-16-2018, 11:13 PM
BigAnt

Hello YTeleven/AceMan/Members - Do you think EB3-India Filing date would continue to advance till 1 May 2010 in next month's (Feb 2019) visa bulletin? If yes, then would it be respected by USCIS?

Thanks
12-17-2018, 01:33 AM
kkruna

Question: If one has gone through a change of job and has new PERM approved under EB2, can he downgrade to EB3 and file I-140 in premium (because he has "original PERM"). The situation would apply to me in coming months...
12-17-2018, 08:14 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

EB1 ROW did not come back to current as expected for January bulletin. This means India getting less numbers in EB1C and lot of applicants close to their last year of L1 will have to return without a chance to file. I expect the filing to be less in 2020 for EB1 and the chance of vertical spill over to EB2 is high in the cards for the end of 2020. What it means is, while it sure for Eb 2010's to port to EB3 and get EAD faster, it is not an easy decision for Eb2 2011.

I don't think you will have any L1's that are nearing the last year. As an L1A can be extended for a max of 7 years, the oldest date is with China in 2016 so there will not be anyone returning back who might have filed or planning to file in EB1 - my thoughts
12-17-2018, 08:16 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by hopeunlimited76

YTeleven, Why would EB3 get more visa number compared to EB2?

EB3I may get more than EB2I as there is a possibility for horizontal SO from EB3 ROW
12-17-2018, 08:43 AM
dev2010

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkruna

Question: If one has gone through a change of job and has new PERM approved under EB2, can he downgrade to EB3 and file I-140 in premium (because he has "original PERM"). The situation would apply to me in coming months...

As far as I know. A perm approved in EB2 should qualify to file I-140 under EB3 as EB3 skillset is a subset of EB2. So this should be possible. I am in similar situation (Oct-2010 PD) and my Perm is under process. Whenever it gets approved, I will most likely end up filing I-140 under EB3.
12-17-2018, 08:48 AM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigAnt

Hello YTeleven/AceMan/Members - Do you think EB3-India Filing date would continue to advance till 1 May 2010 in next month's (Feb 2019) visa bulletin? If yes, then would it be respected by USCIS?

Thanks

I expect Eb3 filing dates to be stagnant for next 2-3 bulletins and the next big movement for April bulletin only. Final dates can be expected to move forward during this time.
12-17-2018, 09:02 AM
desibhai

I hope that you understand risk using EAD/AP without I-140 approval. I would suggest that get EAD/AP but won't change status until I-140 gets approved.
12-17-2018, 10:56 AM
Raj0687

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

I expect Eb3 filing dates to be stagnant for next 2-3 bulletins and the next big movement for April bulletin only. Final dates can be expected to move forward during this time.

USCIS may see some EB3 demand only after the filing dates crosses May/1/2010, until then I think it will keep moving.
12-17-2018, 12:00 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raj0687

USCIS may see some EB3 demand only after the filing dates crosses May/1/2010, until then I think it will keep moving.

For the next couple of months, I would see the final dates moving forward for EB3, while holding on the filing date for the same period.
12-17-2018, 12:46 PM
EB22010Dec

@Aceman - when do you think Eb3 will cross 2010 Dec.
I moved jobs recently and my employer is starting to file GC next month.

Thank you very much in advance for the advice.
12-17-2018, 12:52 PM
march1612

Apologize if this is redundant question, can Guru's here forecast how 2019 would be for EB2-I and EB3-I backing with numbers?

Once again, Merry Christmas and Happy new year. I hope everyone gets greened.

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