EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Hello Guys,
Question for people with 2009 EB2 PDs with Supplement J RFEs recently . My Supplement J was approved 10/31 and then i received another email today. Did any one receive a 'Post Decision Activity' email today or in this week on their Supplement J?
I know USCIS does random batch emails and wonder if this is just random.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SV2007

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

---

SV2007,
Congratulations. Enjoy your freedom.
Yes. We predicted this trend 4 years back and but its got delayed and it is happening now.
I know few more guys who were canceled their plan of upgrading to EB2-I based on our predictions and they are happy now.
For others and specifically for EB2-I guys my suggestion is try downgrade to EB3-I ASAP to grab the EB3 Visa for faster GC approval.
For next one decade EB3-I PDs will be ahead of EB2-I PDs. Those who grab the EB3 visa will get the GC faster.
Don't sit on EB2-I queue. EB2-I 2009 itself will take another year or 2 years to clear unless most of them downgrade to EB3-I or may be the next recession will clear it up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Immigo

January 2019 visa bulletin released. https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2019.html

EB3-I filing date moved to April 1, 2010. Good movement, hopefully this will be honored by USCIS for AOS.

---

I guess USCIS will honor filling dates till the downgrade rate picks up. People are NOT yet considering the downgrade option.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

SV2007,
Congratulations. Enjoy your freedom.
Yes. We predicted this trend 4 years back and but its got delayed and it is happening now.
I know few more guys who were canceled their plan of upgrading to EB2-I based on our predictions and they are happy now.
For others and specifically for EB2-I guys my suggestion is try downgrade to EB3-I ASAP to grab the EB3 Visa for faster GC approval.
For next one decade EB3-I PDs will be ahead of EB2-I PDs. Those who grab the EB3 visa will get the GC faster.
Don't sit on EB2-I queue. EB2-I 2009 itself will take another year or 2 years to clear unless most of them downgrade to EB3-I or may be the next recession will clear it up.

---

YTEleven, it is amazing you predicted this 4 years ago. I have a question for you. When you say EB2I should downgrade, does it apply to all? My PD is April 17 2009 EB2I. Does it make sense for me to downgrade to EB3I. My challenge is that I moved to current company on EAD and they did not do my GC processing. I am not sure if they need to start the process for me or what I need to do. Even to find out the process, I am debating whether it is worth it when my PD is April 17 2009.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

YTEleven, it is amazing you predicted this 4 years ago. I have a question for you. When you say EB2I should downgrade, does it apply to all? My PD is April 17 2009 EB2I. Does it make sense for me to downgrade to EB3I. My challenge is that I moved to current company on EAD and they did not do my GC processing. I am not sure if they need to start the process for me or what I need to do. Even to find out the process, I am debating whether it is worth it when my PD is April 17 2009.

---

My 2 cents: In your situation, it does not make any sense to take the risk to switch to EB3. You already have EAD, why take the hassle/risk to go through this process ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

I guess USCIS will honor filling dates till the downgrade rate picks up. People are NOT yet considering the downgrade option.

---

Its official, USCIS is honoring the filing dates: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2019

I guess not many are there to file but Good luck and Happy New Year for those who are filing in New Year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mknop1

My 2 cents: In your situation, it does not make any sense to take the risk to switch to EB3. You already have EAD, why take the hassle/risk to go through this process ?

---

I agree. Its not advisable in your case. if any one is saving a 1 year wait then it is worth trying the down grade option.

one thing is sure... EB3-I will zoom into 2011 very quickly if many of EB2-I guys are NOT opting for downgrade option.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

I agree. Its not advisable in your case. if any one is saving a 1 year wait then it is worth trying the down grade option.

one thing is sure... EB3-I will zoom into 2011 very quickly if many of EB2-I guys are NOT opting for downgrade option.

---

Hi YT

For what priority dates or from what priority dates will you advice to downgrade as its unclear where EB2 INDIA will end during this FY?

Appreciate your response

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gcvijay

Hi YT

For what priority dates or from what priority dates will you advice to downgrade as its unclear where EB2 INDIA will end during this FY?

Appreciate your response

---

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

YTEleven, it is amazing you predicted this 4 years ago. I have a question for you. When you say EB2I should downgrade, does it apply to all? My PD is April 17 2009 EB2I. Does it make sense for me to downgrade to EB3I. My challenge is that I moved to current company on EAD and they did not do my GC processing. I am not sure if they need to start the process for me or what I need to do. Even to find out the process, I am debating whether it is worth it when my PD is April 17 2009.

---

YTEleven. I am a new joinee to this forum. Painfully waiting since May 2009. My PD is 30 May 2009 in EB2. What are your thoughts or calculations regarding that date ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

---

YT, What do you think about PD 30 May 2009 EB2 ? When is the best estimate that it will become current ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

No. Not EB2-I. But I can expect EB3-I will move to that far in next 6 months.

---

This is exactly 6 months old post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...9678#post59678

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GCkaLADDU

Gurus

Per NVC data, there are 21,385 applications waiting at NVC in EB3 India category as of Nov 1st, 2018. Sometime back, we saw that the total number of approved I-140 in EB3-I category was around 55K as of April 2018. Does this mean that there are roughly 34K (55 - 21) approved I-140's which will use AOS route roughly speaking?

Off course, there's a time difference in between these two reports but just trying to make sense at very high level.

---

That's total outstanding applications for India but we don't know the PDs of those applications.
Moreover, I don't believe those Applications will be converted into GCs.
Most of those Applications will be ultimately get destroyed for lack of employer support.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

---

YTeleven, Why would EB3 get more visa number compared to EB2?
My EB2 I priority is Sept 2010. When should I start EB3 downgrade process? Now or should I wait for the EB3I filing date to be current for my priority date?

Everyone is talking about EB3I.. But for people like me, who ware just a couple of days away to become current under EB2I, this is very frustrating. They didn't move a day for EB2I FAD. Was this expected? When can we expect next movement in EB2I?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Everyone is talking about EB3I.. But for people like me, who ware just a couple of days away to become current under EB2I, this is very frustrating. They didn't move a day for EB2I FAD. Was this expected? When can we expect next movement in EB2I?

---

not too far away from green card. Worst case scenario could be 3 months for for the PD movement. They usually move 1 to 2 weeks until July for some months

I changed jobs in 2016 and ported my date from EB3 to EB2 with new I140 in March 2018. My PD is 5/27/2009. I have painfully waited since july 2018 only to have the dates stuck (date of filing 5/22/2009 and final action). Please advise when can we see some movement and is there any way to make things happen. Any advise on my situation is appreciated

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

---

Um... EB2 may not be as dry as we think, couple of things to notice 1> EB3->EB2 porting will be zero here on 2> it appears that EB2 did get some SO last year, that's why it moved 2.5 months last quarter. So I think, EB2 will also move relatively faster than the previous years.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Raj0687

Um... EB2 may not be as dry as we think, couple of things to notice 1> EB3->EB2 porting will be zero here on 2> it appears that EB2 did get some SO last year, that's why it moved 2.5 months last quarter. So I think, EB2 will also move relatively faster than the previous years.

---

3. People who already ported to EB2 from EB3 are filing with EB3. Myself and couple of my colleagues are in this boat

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

SV2007,
Congratulations. Enjoy your freedom.
Yes. We predicted this trend 4 years back and but its got delayed and it is happening now.
I know few more guys who were canceled their plan of upgrading to EB2-I based on our predictions and they are happy now.
For others and specifically for EB2-I guys my suggestion is try downgrade to EB3-I ASAP to grab the EB3 Visa for faster GC approval.
For next one decade EB3-I PDs will be ahead of EB2-I PDs. Those who grab the EB3 visa will get the GC faster.
Don't sit on EB2-I queue. EB2-I 2009 itself will take another year or 2 years to clear unless most of them downgrade to EB3-I or may be the next recession will clear it up.

---

Count me in as another non-upgrader for Feb 2011. I had my job promotion 3 years back, and I was seriously contemplating to upgrade and that's when the October 2015 bulletin fiasco happened. My colleague who also had a promotion went ahead and upgraded because his dates were November 2010 while I stay put.

EB1 ROW did not come back to current as expected for January bulletin. This means India getting less numbers in EB1C and lot of applicants close to their last year of L1 will have to return without a chance to file. I expect the filing to be less in 2020 for EB1 and the chance of vertical spill over to EB2 is high in the cards for the end of 2020. What it means is, while it sure for Eb 2010's to port to EB3 and get EAD faster, it is not an easy decision for Eb2 2011.

18 months from now, the porting down will clog EB3, and all it takes is low demand for EB1 in 2020 to get a SO of 10,000 to propel EB2 I back to forefront. Then there will be a mad scramble to port back or do whatever if that happens. We have seen that happening for Chinese a lot recently after Eb3 was ahead for close to 3 years.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

This is exactly 6 months old post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...9678#post59678

---

Can you please share your analysis and expectation on when can we expect May 30 2009 in EB2 to be current based on the recent trend ? There is a very important Job decision I need to make this weekend.

Appreciate your help.

Hello Gurus,

Need some advice.

My PD is Oct 2009 on EB3 from previous employer. My current employer has filed PERM. With the new application, do I port to EB2 or continue with EB3. Though EB3 is current now, is there any change it may retrogress.

Thanks

I have my priority date in August 2011. I am pretty sure a lot of people who are in my boat are not worried about the GC at this point. Most of them are looking forward to favorable filing dates to apply for AOS/EAD/AP. I wouldn't mind spending a few years in EAD. It's still way better than being on H1 as it provides more flexibility.

YTeleven,

While, I agree with your comments. I believe you are assuming that no legislative action will be done for next 5 years.
I believe otherwise, I am frustrated with no action on immigration reform for last several years but I am still hopeful.
Once new congress comes in January, they have to work on some bills,
since they completed "Tax Reform Bill", zero chance for "HealthCare Reform Bill" logical choice would be immigration bill.
even in worst scenario, they have to tackle "DACA" before next presidential elections ..

bottom line, I think there will be some legislative action on immigration sooner than later.

Regards
Tatikonda.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YTeleven

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tatikonda

YTeleven,

While, I agree with your comments. I believe you are assuming that no legislative action will be done for next 5 years.
I believe otherwise, I am frustrated with no action on immigration reform for last several years but I am still hopeful.
Once new congress comes in January, they have to work on some bills,
since they completed "Tax Reform Bill", zero chance for "HealthCare Reform Bill" logical choice would be immigration bill.
even in worst scenario, they have to tackle "DACA" before next presidential elections ..

bottom line, I think there will be some legislative action on immigration sooner than later.

Regards
Tatikonda.

---

There will most probably be no legislative action for the next six years and I really hope I am wrong. Back in the days when things were much less partisan and much less toxic, we couldn't get any thing done. The last bill on immigration was passed two decades ago. Even the country cap removal was in the works since 2007. Kenvin Yoder who sponsored HR392 lost the election and the bill will need to be re-introduced and found a sponsor. Plus democrats will not agree on a bill which just benefits high-skilled immigrants. They just won't. And even if we could get it past house (like it did in 2011), there will be major opposition from other countries because the bill is zero-sum. I am done fighting for it. My better option is to downgrade and jump to a quicker line.

Also, one thing none of us can predict is when the economy slows. So far the job market is robust but may be in an year's time it won't be and it will impact the filings. PERM filings will slow down, ROW will be current and if you and I are lucky enough to be still employed, we would be greened. But it's gonna be a slog.

Iatiam