EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Hello friends,

I was a follower of Q's analysis on Immig Voice before he moved to this. Till now, I've been reading this blog diligently every day. I really appreciate the work that every single person on this blog has done including but not limited to Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and others.

With PD of July 2008, I am faced with the question every day I wake up, should I change or should I continue. It is hard to see so many good job opps. go plus the fact that my wife who has MBA degree from top school in Mum can't work. All this makes you think .. heck with it..

Anyways, I told myself I will not allow this wait to stunt my growth. I registered LLC last year, hired a person and have humble no of clients so far. This has given me a sense of satisfaction.

I have a question for you gurus...

My PD is June 2008.... So as its only hopeful for 2013....

Now I am with Co A who holds my I-140.... If I move to Co B in Jan 2012 and start the PERM and then later I-140, I am looking at clearing this by 2013 summer. So its good as you guys suggest.

But my Co A is not going to revoke my I-140 for sure, because I had already discussed this with him (the Co A I work for is a very small American Co).

So my questions are
1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B?

I am seriously considering these options, gurus please advice me with your opinions...

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

for all those people who are quoting the law that EB2 has to be current for EB3 to have spillover, please realize that CIS does what it wants to do to clear the queue and it would not be the first time that CIS has bent the law to do that, and neither will it be the last.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Yes I too started to believe this concept, and a common talk over this that Uscis is trying to reduce eb3 backlog by giving some part of extra visas . Good

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At the pain of repetition, nowhere does the law use the word "Current".

It says that spare visas cannot be given to a group lower in the pecking order until there are no further qualified applicants in the the higher group.

DOS can and have said they can use estimates of future Demand to set the Cut Off Dates.

It is quite possible, within the law, to have a situation where EB2-IC COD has been set to a future fixed date based on estimated demand, but because of processing delays, no further qualified applicants remain to allocate a visa to.

In this situation, it fulfils the conditions to spill the visas further.

Whilst DOS may need to take processing time into account, ultimately it is not their problem and, other than CP cases, out of their direct control.
They have the job of ensuring no visas are wasted and that each Category receives as close to the statutory numbers (28.6% each for EB1-3) without exceeding them. In this context, spillover can be considered as bonus visas.

No law says that if actual demand runs out at a point in time (as opposed to known demand in existence) that the COD must be made Current, particularly if the Category has reached at least the statutory numbers. That only requires extra visas equal to the FA within EB2.

No law has been either broken, or bent in doing this IMO.

As a separate issue, given that for F2A, DOS continued to move the COD, even when normal limits applied and demand probably exceeded the monthly allotment, I agree that DOS will likely do "what they think necessary" to manage the situation "as they see fit".

That makes it extremely difficult to guess what DOS may, or may not do.

Lets not add any more insult to the injury, lets keep calling ourselves PWMB :-(

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Originally Posted by 03May07

Has anyone coined a word like 'PWMB' for all the PWMB's who were at ill luck after Sep VB?

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Originally Posted by mesan123

I agree with you guys. but moving jobs and porting your PD is not easy these days...

just few facts to keep in mind before you move...
for instance in my case...my priority date is feb 2011(eb2). i got couple of new offers...defnitely there is hike in salary and position but there is a big catch...
1)most of the full time job offering companies are not ready for EB2 even though you qualify.
2)you need to wait minimum 1 year for them to start process
3) will take another 6-8months before they file labor and 3-5 months for labor approval
4) incase your case is audited you wont know how long that may take
5) 140 approval will take another 6-10months time in normal processing



one of the recent offers i got HR mentioned that incase i get 3 year extension with my current 140 then they will start my gc process 1 year before my h1b expiry.

my suggestion would be if your job is secured and you already have 140 approved and current job is good, stick to it rather than moving to new place ...finding fulltimes in H1b is tough...if you are in 5th or 6th year of h1b it is even tough(even if you have 140 approval)

if thinking of moving to consultancy companies...if you are experienced and willing to relocate anywhere in usa you can find job.....but H1b transfer and visting your home country(for visa stamp) would be biggest hurdles...

another major thing to keep in mind if recession or us market is not doing good....we may get SOFAD more for GC...but for H1b's it will be bad..
just my 2 cents..

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I am a person who has been in this country for 10 years and have filed mutiple H1extension and am on EAD and i can tell you this with certainity that nothing is certain in the GC process. I know of someone who got his GC and was harrased at POE as to how come he got his GC in 5 years. I myself was harrased at POE when i came back on AP where the officer asked me to prove to him that i was legal in this country on H1B before i filed for 485.

Hence worrying about H1B stamping issues in India is just a small part of what you will face further down the line. The ultimate safe point is citizenship so hankering for atleast a EAD/AP to be safe from H1B stamping is short term thinking.

The bottom line is till you get your GC you are an Alien in this coutry albeit a Legal Alien but still an Alien.

Since no one can predict the future and since VB prediction is more difficult that predicting the future, it would be better for all Post July 2007 people to start thinking of backup plans, if they cannot file for 485 in near future. Those who have better job offers should take the offer based on thier risk tolerance and kind of company they get the offer from and how much the company will supoport their GC process.

Myself with PD 2005 in EB3 India have stopped thinking about GC and have started thinking about my backup plan and thatis to make as much money as possible. So that is my criteria - MAKE AS MUCH MONEY AS POSSIBLE - and screw this GC process. If i get GC then good if not atleast i made money and gained experience and knowledge and promotion which will assit me in getting a job back in India.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

At the pain of repetition, nowhere does the law use the word "Current".

It says that spare visas cannot be given to a group lower in the pecking order until there are no further qualified applicants in the the higher group.
DOS can and have said they can use estimates of future Demand to set the Cut Off Dates.

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It says that spare visas cannot be given to a group lower in the pecking order (EB3 People who have not filed for 485) until there are no further qualified applicants in the the higher group (EB2 People who have not filed for 485)
Nowhere does the above statement mention about EB3 People who have filed for 485 bacause of July 2007 fluke.

This law is correct when both EB3 and EB2 are waiting for filing 485 (Post july 2007 people), but teh law makes no reference to EB3 filed 485 waiting fior visa numbers as they have slipped through the cracks and CIS will try and fill up this crack as soon as possibel and also make sure something like thsi does not happen in the future and hence no BTM in future.

Agree with your below statement
I agree that DOS will likely do "what they think necessary" to manage the situation "as they see fit". That makes it extremely difficult to guess what DOS may, or may not do.

I agree with you.

We are Aliens. In the American people's eyes, we are not much different from the Mexicans cutting grass for them.

I have prepared myself for the worst cases senario. I kept studying as much as I can in the past several years. I obtained several certifications and also save money as much as I could.

If in one day our GC fails, what will we do? At least we need to have some money and have some skills. I think it's a good idea to study in office time and learn more stuff. It's a waste of time to work on routine tasks that will not benefit our future career. For me, I do Minimum for this company, but I learn a lot by checking websites and taking some evening classes. It will be stupid if we work hard on stupid routine work everyday when they treat us like crap.

We have to be street smart!

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I am a person who has been in this country for 10 years and have filed mutiple H1extension and am on EAD and i can tell you this with certainity that nothing is certain in the GC process. I know of someone who got his GC and was harrased at POE as to how come he got his GC in 5 years. I myself was harrased at POE when i came back on AP where the officer asked me to prove to him that i was legal in this country on H1B before i filed for 485.

Hence worrying about H1B stamping issues in India is just a small part of what you will face further down the line. The ultimate safe point is citizenship so hankering for atleast a EAD/AP to be safe from H1B stamping is short term thinking.

The bottom line is till you get your GC you are an Alien in this coutry albeit a Legal Alien but still an Alien.

Since no one can predict the future and since VB prediction is more difficult that predicting the future, it would be better for all Post July 2007 people to start thinking of backup plans, if they cannot file for 485 in near future. Those who have better job offers should take the offer based on thier risk tolerance and kind of company they get the offer from and how much the company will supoport their GC process.

Myself with PD 2005 in EB3 India have stopped thinking about GC and have started thinking about my backup plan and thatis to make as much money as possible. So that is my criteria - MAKE AS MUCH MONEY AS POSSIBLE - and screw this GC process. If i get GC then good if not atleast i made money and gained experience and knowledge and promotion which will assit me in getting a job back in India.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

So that is my criteria - MAKE AS MUCH MONEY AS POSSIBLE - and screw this GC process.

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Seedhabhol(Plainspeak) bhai...add SAVE AS MUCH MONEY AS POSSIBLE too in your clause... making money is duty and saving money is an art... i am still trying to figure that out though...

Yes, DOS can find 1 million excuses to justify what they do.

We can't argue with these people. We are the meat and they are the knife.

We are powerless and we have to accpet whatever they tell us.

It's sad, but it's the fact.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

It says that spare visas cannot be given to a group lower in the pecking order (EB3 People who have not filed for 485) until there are no further qualified applicants in the the higher group (EB2 People who have not filed for 485)
Nowhere does the above statement mention about EB3 People who have filed for 485 bacause of July 2007 fluke.

This law is correct when both EB3 and EB2 are waiting for filing 485 (Post july 2007 people), but teh law makes no reference to EB3 filed 485 waiting fior visa numbers as they have slipped through the cracks and CIS will try and fill up this crack as soon as possibel and also make sure something like thsi does not happen in the future and hence no BTM in future.

Agree with your below statement
I agree that DOS will likely do "what they think necessary" to manage the situation "as they see fit". That makes it extremely difficult to guess what DOS may, or may not do.

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Originally Posted by kolugc

I have a question for you gurus...

My PD is June 2008.... So as its only hopeful for 2013....

Now I am with Co A who holds my I-140.... If I move to Co B in Jan 2012 and start the PERM and then later I-140, I am looking at clearing this by 2013 summer. So its good as you guys suggest.

But my Co A is not going to revoke my I-140 for sure, because I had already discussed this with him (the Co A I work for is a very small American Co).

So my questions are
1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B?

I am seriously considering these options, gurus please advice me with your opinions...

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Kolu... Now a days company lawyers are recommending companies to revoke 140's as per legal rules... so make sure you understand the whole scenario before taking a plunge... i am saying this as you are dealing with an american corp....

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, DOS can find 1 million excuses to justify what they do.

We can't argue with these people. We are the meat and they are the knife.

We are powerless and we have to accpet whatever they tell us.

It's sad, but it's the fact.

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hey QBF bhai... how are ya... r u ok now? ... dude... i was wondering why can't china PD move faster than india in coming months... your PWMB's and backlog numbers are way less than India right... cant see why it can't be done... also going into 2008/09/10, chinese numbers are really really low...

september bulletin brought so much pessimism :)

let's not forget the net reduction in EB2IC is 26k, and if the same thing repeats 2008 will be cleared by sept2013. I think the expectations went so high after June bulletin and in turn people are now so low in confidence.

if Eb2 has no documentarily qualified demand then visas will go to EB3, fair enough, how one can prove that there is no demand if the dates are not current, if DOS doesn't move EB2 date and visas are given to EB3 then let's all of us be ready (eb2 and eb3) for class action law suit, we all will be making so much money we can file in EB5.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Kolu... Now a days company lawyers are recommending companies to revoke 140's as per legal rules... so make sure you understand the whole scenario before taking a plunge... i am saying this as you are dealing with an american corp....

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Though its an American Co, its just 20 employees here and the Co uses my Desi Attorney with whom I been associated for more than 4 years.

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Originally Posted by bieber

september bulletin brought so much pessimism :)

let's not forget the net reduction in EB2IC is 26k, and if the same thing repeats 2008 will be cleared by sept2013. I think the expectations went so high after June bulletin and in turn people are now so low in confidence.

if Eb2 has no documentarily qualified demand then visas will go to EB3, fair enough, how one can prove that there is no demand if the dates are not current, if DOS doesn't move EB2 date and visas are given to EB3 then let's all of us be ready (eb2 and eb3) for class action law suit, we all will be making so much money we can file in EB5.

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I think any class action law suit will bite the dust because of the keyword documentarily qualified demand which means demand which CIS knows about and can be documented and that is all the 485 apps CIS knows it has and 90 % of that is EB3 apps. Post July 2007 EB2 and EB3 people who have not filed for 485 are NOT documentarily qualified demand

The current EB2-C demand before 2008 is 3200, plus some extra PWMB numbers, it will be close to 6000 or sth.

I think I may have to wait for 2013 to get GC.

The next summer is not a sure thing. If Mr.CO opens the gate too late, EB2-C&I will get nothing. Nobody can assure us that they will give SO to EB2 next year. It's very possible they will use the SO to solve the EB3 backlog. If that happens next summer, we will get into big trouble.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

hey QBF bhai... how are ya... r u ok now? ... dude... i was wondering why can't china PD move faster than india in coming months... your PWMB's and backlog numbers are way less than India right... cant see why it can't be done... also going into 2008/09/10, chinese numbers are really really low...

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Originally Posted by kolugc

Though its an American Co, its just 20 employees here and the Co uses my Desi Attorney with whom I been associated for more than 4 years.

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awesome...just wanted to remind u bro... happy hopping then...

Not to dampen the spirits, but can't stop remembering the NVC fee notification theory that the forum discussed so much in the past few months.

Any explanation why the dates didn't progress to 2008 based on NVC fee notifications ? Discussing NVC fee theory now may give a better understanding about NVC fees for future discussions.

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.

I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

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Originally Posted by soggadu

hey QBF bhai... how are ya... r u ok now? ... dude... i was wondering why can't china PD move faster than india in coming months... your PWMB's and backlog numbers are way less than India right... cant see why it can't be done... also going into 2008/09/10, chinese numbers are really really low...

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Post July 2007 EB2 and EB3 people who have not filed for 485 are NOT documentarily qualified demand

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I'm not saying they are, Eb3 will and should get visas provided eb2c date is C. Eb2 is getting spillover only because EB1 is C, same thing will happen if EB3 gets SO from EB2

There is no reason to believe CIS/DOS will favor one category over other

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Originally Posted by gcq

Not to dampen the spirits, but can't stop remembering the NVC fee notification theory that the forum discussed so much in the past few months.

Any explanation why the dates didn't progress to 2008 based on NVC fee notifications ? Discussing NVC fee theory now may give a better understanding about NVC fees for future discussions.

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gcq...think about it... they sent these notices in march and april thinking lot of spillover left and they can do miracles...then during the last couple of bulletins they realized the new demand and their calculation mistake... so they kept quiet... no movement... so dont worry abt NVC's... they are anyway valid for ever once they pay the fee's...

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Originally Posted by soggadu

awesome...just wanted to remind u bro... happy hopping then...

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Thanks Soggudu for your advice... You are very right... If they revoke I am screwed bit time... I did hear its very difficult to get the PD from a revoked I-140... And now that you reminded this, I am definitely going to check this again with my attorney and my employer and if possible get this in writing before I quit and make my move..

But does that mean its "Yes" for all my questions below..

1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B?

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.

I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

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Can u ask them to visit you? i know it's hard waiting on sidelines but is there anything that can make u feel better than remorse and curse for something which is not in our hands? just wondering...

In my opinion, people with PD in 2008 should not wait for GC. Switch jobs, get more money and better position. At age 33, i have realized that GC is the least important thing in life to focus on. If you focus on your career, GC will come by itself if you need it. Going by this thinking, i have put in last 2 years into my startup and making $4k/month in revenue(number looks small but takes tons of effort). Hope to go fulltime by this year end. And that would be that of this H1-B contracting crap. I cant take this nonsense stifling of my career @random_jerk_manager anymore.

Q - congrats on your GC. Enjoy..

my PD is april 2008 and i have thought about changing my job for last few years but i am still at the same place! the risk of going through all documentation nightmare again, holds me back. i am in this country for 9 years and am taking the risk with starting my part-time mba this fall, similar to the risk of buying a house i took few years back. i don't know how to navigate this uncertainty but at least i have to keep faith in my luck/education/skills and keep investing in myself.

i am actually lost with all the recent posts and with so much activity it is really hard to keep up with the pace. well, actually a good thing for Q's blog.

can someone pls summarize the knowledge on PWMB and porting demand and how about it limits the movement next year till maximum jan-mar 2008?

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I agree with you.

We are Aliens. In the American people's eyes, we are not much different from the Mexicans cutting grass for them.

I have prepared myself for the worst cases senario. I kept studying as much as I can in the past several years. I obtained several certifications and also save money as much as I could.

If in one day our GC fails, what will we do? At least we need to have some money and have some skills. I think it's a good idea to study in office time and learn more stuff. It's a waste of time to work on routine tasks that will not benefit our future career. For me, I do Minimum for this company, but I learn a lot by checking websites and taking some evening classes. It will be stupid if we work hard on stupid routine work everyday when they treat us like crap.

We have to be street smart!

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I totally agree with you qblogfan. my pd is dec 31, 2007. and realized in 2008/2009 that my dates will not be current for few more years and cannot stop my career. could not change the job then due to market conditions. did mba using company's education program, volunteered for more roles, gave presentations to mgmt based on my little knowledge i got through mba. finally i got promoted to sales manager. ( i was design engineer). even if my dates get current and i get EAD, I cannot use AC21 because my gc was applied for design engineer. so for me to change jobs to sales, i have to have GC...

everyone has our own situations....

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Originally Posted by bieber

if Eb2 has no documentarily qualified demand then visas will go to EB3, fair enough, how one can prove that there is no demand if the dates are not current, if DOS doesn't move EB2 date and visas are given to EB3 then let's all of us be ready (eb2 and eb3) for class action law suit, we all will be making so much money we can file in EB5.

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What would be the basis of a Class Action Lawsuit in such a scenario?

The remaining numbers (not even considering porting) are sufficient to use the 81% visas available to the end of June 2012.

DOS would argue (correctly) that they could not invite new Demand until July 2012, because there would be insufficient visas available to allocate to known Demand.

At that point, it wouldn't matter whether the COD was moved a little or made Current. Apart from a few CP cases, it wouldn't result in extra qualified applicants who could receive visas. Hardly anybody could claim they lost out on a visa allocation because the dates were not made Current. That could not be rectified by litigation after the event, a point the Chinese conceded in their own case.

DOS, on the other hand could fairly easily prove that any forward movement made covered sufficient Demand for visas available from spillover, had the cases been processed by USCIS with sufficient speed.

Anyway, it is probably entirely hypothetical.

CO has pretty much said that it will not be made Current.

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

In my opinion, people with PD in 2008 should not wait for GC. Switch jobs, get more money and better position. At age 33, i have realized that GC is the least important thing in life to focus on. If you focus on your career, GC will come by itself if you need it. Going by this thinking, i have put in last 2 years into my startup and making $4k/month in revenue(number looks small but takes tons of effort). Hope to go fulltime by this year end. And that would be that of this H1-B contracting crap. I cant take this nonsense stifling of my career @random_jerk_manager anymore.

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ssvp bhai, you are 100% right, confusion comes when you are 27, unmarried, partying everyday and having an average employer (not great, but not bad at all) and a PD of may 2008. That is when u think heck, let me wait 2 more yrs.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

What would be the basis of a Class Action Lawsuit in such a scenario?

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If 'no documentarily qualified demand' clause is used to give visas to eb3, then the same clause will not let them set a date other than C for eb2. (because in that case one can argue there is no demand because you have a date which is not current and that is preventing the demand) When DOS is saying there is no demand for a category why would they have to set a date in that case?

having said that I don't think they will make it C, they can play very nicely within the timeframe to give all the visas to Eb2 (I'm not against them giving visas to eb3)

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I think any class action law suit will bite the dust because of the keyword documentarily qualified demand which means demand which CIS knows about and can be documented and that is all the 485 apps CIS knows it has and 90 % of that is EB3 apps. Post July 2007 EB2 and EB3 people who have not filed for 485 are NOT documentarily qualified demand

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Great, they know so many people have filed and have approved 140's in all categories. That documentary demand would not be visible until the category becomes current and that can happen if by miracle we get around 200K odd visa numebers allocated to EB2 and 3 IandC.

kolu...my take on ur questions...

1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

Yes provided it is not revoked, as GC process is all about future employment, u can even stay on the process with co A while you are at co B

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

same answer i guess, provided 140 not revoked and your co A is willing to take u back... u neednt even come back and still have the process going with co A if it is a possibility

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B? see above

others please correct me if i am wrong

Long time reader. You guys are doing a real great job providing clarity. I have started understanding the nuances a lot better now thanks to all of you on this forum.

Question for Spectator -
In this scenario, how far do you think the dates need to move? Are folks who sent the documents corresponding to NVC receipts considered documentarily qualified? So, can we assume the date need to move in EB2 to cover those before giving them to EB3.

My lawyer picked CP for me because he told me at the time this provides us most flexibility. I was also asked to ignore the email from NVC about the bill and file for AOS when the dates become current.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.

I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

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Same here and don't see that happening in the next 3 years or so and still giving falls hopes to parents back home.
The govt doesn't realize that the travel itself chruns the industry, by airline tickets and the shopping that indians do when they go visit their home country.

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Originally Posted by bieber

If 'no documentarily qualified demand' clause is used to give visas to eb3, then the same clause will not let them set a date other than C for eb2. (because in that case one can argue there is no demand because you have a date which is not current and that is preventing the demand) When DOS is saying there is no demand for a category why would they have to set a date in that case?

having said that I don't think they will make it C, they can play very nicely within the timeframe to give all the visas to Eb2 (I'm not against them giving visas to eb3)

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Running out of documentarily qualified cases is not exactly the same as not knowing potential demand.

A fixed Cut off Date in the future can be set by estimating future applications on the basis of known I-140 approvals with PDs beyond August 15 2007 (which CO seems to have asked USCIS for already).

Whilst not as exact as actual I-485 submissions, it is fairly easy to build in a margin when setting the COD. Making it Current is not necessary.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Running out of documentarily qualified cases is not exactly the same as not knowing potential demand.

A fixed Cut off Date in the future can be set by estimating future applications on the basis of known I-140 approvals with PDs beyond August 15 2007 (which CO seems to have asked USCIS for already).

Whilst not as exact as actual I-485 submissions, it is fairly easy to build in a margin when setting the COD. Making it Current is not necessary.

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Spec, I don't disagree with you but I believe there is enough grey area to pursue CALS, Will DOS/CIS defend successfully? most likely yes. Is there enough appetite for CALS, may be not :)

Texan

Welcome and must say WAY TO GO as far as starting your business goes. Good luck.

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Originally Posted by TheTexan

Anyways, I told myself I will not allow this wait to stunt my growth. I registered LLC last year, hired a person and have humble no of clients so far. This has given me a sense of satisfaction.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.
I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

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Can you not travel on your H1? What's the situation?

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

i have put in last 2 years into my startup and making $4k/month in revenue(number looks small but takes tons of effort). Hope to go fulltime by this year end. And that would be that of this H1-B contracting crap. I cant take this nonsense stifling of my career @random_jerk_manager anymore.

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ssvp that is truly great! I wonder if we should be starting a thread on our experiences / problems with startups?

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Originally Posted by makmohan

can someone pls summarize the knowledge on PWMB and porting demand and how about it limits the movement next year till maximum jan-mar 2008?

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The best way to avoid confusion is to look at the header of this thread or a number of threads in FACTS and DATA section. We all keep those threads updated.

I am a bit lost on why people think EB3 is receiving any SO visas? They are NOT.

If the fear is about future, CO has no reason to favor EB3IC over EB2IC. As per ROW, they are already moving to EB2 which is why the average annual demand in EB2 ROW has jumped from 16K per year Pre-2007 levels to 33K post-2007 levels.

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Originally Posted by PDJan2008

Long time reader. You guys are doing a real great job providing clarity. I have started understanding the nuances a lot better now thanks to all of you on this forum.

Question for Spectator -
In this scenario, how far do you think the dates need to move? Are folks who sent the documents corresponding to NVC receipts considered documentarily qualified? So, can we assume the date need to move in EB2 to cover those before giving them to EB3.

My lawyer picked CP for me because he told me at the time this provides us most flexibility. I was also asked to ignore the email from NVC about the bill and file for AOS when the dates become current.

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PDJan2008,

Welcome to the forum.

That is impossible to answer.

If DOS moved the dates purely on the basis of documentarily qualified applicants, then the dates would move much further. That is what bieber is saying.

If DOS move the dates based on estimates of future Demand, they will move a lot less. That is my counterpoint to the above.

Not a satisfactory answer, I agree.

The whole point, is that DOS has a large array of strategies they can pursue next year. They can probably justify all of them.

I don't know which one, or combination, they will choose, neither am I advocating one over another or which one is more likely.

There are some constraints to repeating the same level of movement in May/June again.

We will only get a clue when something happens in the VB that makes one more likely over the other.

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Originally Posted by bieber

I'm not saying they are, Eb3 will and should get visas provided eb2c date is C. Eb2 is getting spillover only because EB1 is C, same thing will happen if EB3 gets SO from EB2

There is no reason to believe CIS/DOS will favor one category over other

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Think from CIS point of view. They dont care about EB2 or EB3 or EB1 for that matter. All they care about is working within the parameters laid down by the law and they have a lot of leeway in interpreting the law. They will not fill up the pipe line just because EB2 wants EAD

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Think from CIS point of view. They dont care about EB2 or EB3 or EB1 for that matter. All they care about is working within the parameters laid down by the law and they have a lot of leeway in interpreting the law. They will not fill up the pipe line just because EB2 wants EAD

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I don't think I made a point where they will make it C because EB2 wants EAD. I was certainly arguing about parameters laid down by the law

My family work for military missle navigation and their visas were denied in 2006. We are not their allies.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Can u ask them to visit you? i know it's hard waiting on sidelines but is there anything that can make u feel better than remorse and curse for something which is not in our hands? just wondering...

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