LOL :). Your family and you should get your cards soon buddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ind2009
Don’t think the agency will stoop to that level to not produce and send the cards 😀
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LOL :). Your family and you should get your cards soon buddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ind2009
Don’t think the agency will stoop to that level to not produce and send the cards 😀
I agree. I was expecting better movement for Eb2I. This movement did not reflect the substantial SO that was being discussed and analyzed. It made everyone happy that it moved by a month( maybe due to other rumors of greencard processing oh hold etc.,)but few realized that it did not account for the horizontal SO we were all waiting for. Next 2 months will tell. Fingers crossed. If we fail to get the expected SO this year, what should make us optimistic for next year?! The vertical SO may not mean too much given the demand etc.,Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
Mr. CO proudly says he will waste 25K EB visas this year because USCIS does not have capacity.
EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.
QUESTION: In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that “it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.” If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?
ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.
Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to “mission critical” processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.
Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.
The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.
The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.
Given USCIS’s potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCIS’s data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.
There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.
However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.
Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?
ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.
Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.
I give up and want to cry.
Don't we have 20K peoples files for 485 in EB2 when the dates moved to April 2010 earlier? If that is the case then it is a matter of just assigning the available GC number to the 20K and process whenever they want to may be next year! Or is it that since USCIS doesn't have people ready to work they would not even request for a visa number even if they have the 485s filed?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
No, it is because USCIS is a piece of shit agency. Because, EB will be getting FB unused visas next year, they want to transfer some from EB lest more backlog could clear. They want to maintain the status quo of people rotting in backlog as much as possible. CO can try to put however much lipstick on the pig, he cannot hide the agency’s racist intentions.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
Sadly biggest loser on all this is EB2. They might clear entire EB1 preadjudicated cases and since EB1 is not current it won’t spillover to EB2. This is the repercussion of CO not moving EB1 FAD further. What a sad state of affairs.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Now I believe covid happened for a reason .. it won’t end soon .. everyone tears will not go in vain .. 16 years in USA. ...
Well, within each of his check-in meetings( I think this was one too) is a cryptic message we try to decode.In this case, how about the paragraph below??Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Does it mean he is expecting some good news for these categories? Then he should have moved the dates significantly in the July bulletin for 2009 PD filers which he didn't! There is no hope!
The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.
He is not saying with pride ... he is saying it with horror. What you are seeing is the classic tussle between DOS and DHS. DOS can not force DHS / USCIS to ask for a visa. USCIS has to submit those backlogged cases and request visas. So unless they are open for business who is going to submit the requests for visa?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
This is CO's way of nudging and shaming USCIS publicly.
Respectfully Q, I do not buy your theory that he is nudging and shaming USCIS. Nor do I buy the argument that DOS is acting professionally. The duty of DOS is to allocate visas and move PDs based on demand. We are in the last quarter with SO fully eligible. The moment he does not see demand, he has to keep moving the dates and make it Current. How many kids will be prevented from aging out if dates are Current? How many people will avoid refiling PERM and redoing the process due to loss of job? People can take advantage of 180-day AC21 provisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
DOS / CO’s duty is interpreting the INA and act accordingly. He has to move the dates per INA guidelines. Whether USCIS allocates GCs is a separate problem. It is not his job to give paragraphs of excuses blaming a different agency for not moving PDs (and not doing his job duties). Why can’t he move the PDs and let USCIS pickup the low hanging fruit to reduce the wastage of GCs. Many people here will be happy with getting an EAD/AP.
Agree with you. It feels like he is taking a swipe at them but his actions haven't reinforced the words, sadly!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yes. When I read this line it confused me. On one hand he says atleast 25K EB visas will be wasted and on the other he says why EB india and china are low touch cases that can be processed and moved fast! Not sure what's his point. But I agree with Idliman that if his intentions are that noble, he could have moved the EB2 dates a bit aggressively (may be to end of 2009) to exert that pressure on the processing side which he has obviously haven't (atleast yet). Also, having this problem carrying over to next fiscal is worrisome as the number of visas that could go waste is MUCH higher. These agencies operate with ZERO accountability. We should hope that Covid situation slows down next fiscal and normal processing returns as much as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by redtogreen
"Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit."Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
How is this answer relevant to wasting EB visas this year? What's he intending to say here. Is he implying that those 25K wasted visas can be carried over to next fiscal also??
Are spillovers always applied the next fiscal by law/practice? Or towards the end of fiscal based on already consumed and projected numbers?
FB SOs are applied next fiscal. That's why I'm confused. Last year we received 16K FB SO?? Is he including those 16K within the 25K visas that he says may be wasted. If that's the case can the C/F those 16K to the following fiscal too? I'm confused!Quote:
Originally Posted by usvisas
Hello Spectator,
My question is also related to the EB visa carry over. Is it possible for EB visas to be used for the next FY. If yes, which part of INA is this mentioned?
I am reading that as 25K total EB visas out of 156,500 that is the numeric limitation set for 2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
I hope CO moves DF dates well ahead beginning of next FY. That way he can avoid wastage of visas. Will he do that?
Yes. But did he imply that some of those 25K will be carried over to next fiscal?Quote:
Originally Posted by usvisas
It is such bullshit that CO moves EB1-I fast but not EB2-I. It looks like he is forced to pick and choose some categories to move fast and he picked EB1-I as his blue eyed son.
Let's give him till end of this fiscal....Moving EB2 by a month is at least something.Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
And are EB spillovers applied in the same fiscal towards the end of that fiscal?Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
I don't think that's codified (if I'm not wrong).Quote:
Originally Posted by usvisas
The short answer is - CO has done that in the past and USCIS refused to honor the dates. In that showdown DOS lost. So CO learnt his lesson and will only move dates in coordination with DHS.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
CO allocates visa only AFTER DHS has requested a visa for an application. Get it?
That is my understanding. But if you have better understanding I'd be happy to learn.
I don't think CO anywhere mentioned 25K visas will be wasted, he said "unused" which (as per my understanding) would move to FB, since FB will already SO 60K to EB (to become 200K), eventually, these 25K will add up to the same SO, Total SO to EB will be ~60K +25K = 85K. I still expect to see the EB2 crawling in next few VB and obviously I don't hope it will go beyond May 2010 in the next 4-5 years ( happy to hear if I am wrong).
He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.
Can we setup Webinar session with CO like Chinese EB5 investors?
My question is why is there a reduced capacity to begin with? The furlough is only in August. Sure, interviews and biometrics cannot be done. But with so many backlogged cases almost ready for approval, why is the processing slow? Are they working from home or just getting paid without the ability to work?
The comments show the level of insentivity to the issues. Do they realize 25000 wasted numbers is almost 9 years of country capped numbers? Spillover next year must be in addition to not wasting visas.
This is like saying, I will burn away this months salary because I will get paid next month as well. If the capacity constraint is so severe, did they not see this earlier and is now apparent?
I can’t believe they are so nonchalant about wasting 25k visas.
At least if this would be used by FB, it may be ok, but even if 140k or zero visas spilled over to FB, the limit for FB will always be 226k. So these numbers are essentially down the drain.
I read it again. I don't think its clear to me. I understand your interpretation but its pretty unclear.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Yes. That's the risk here. We still have 2 more months lets see how many above the standard 2806 he is going this year by using some SO atleast.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
How different is it right now than a usual processing year wherein they have been allocating same number of visas if not more?! What should be adding to the productivity instead are lack of interview related tasks, no extensive application processing, work from home privileges, furlough not announced officially...!!They should have all the time to process those backlogged cases that CO himself clarified are low hanging fruits!!Quote:
Originally Posted by eaglenow
The resource crunch theory is not sitting well with me given the current circumstances.We are the scapegoats unfortunately in the grand scheme of things.
I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.
I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?
All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.
we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.
What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....
Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)
Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.
It is extremely exhausting mentally and otherwise. I had said this a couple of months back that the numbers will be there but whether they will be used is upto the administration. Both DOS and DHS secretaries are political appointees. The grinch in the white house is their ultimate mafia boss. So I won't venture to predict what's going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
But as per whether backlogged folks can do anything - well why not?? Gather a group of at least a 1000 backlogged folks and go ahead to DHS and DOS headquarters in DC in person to give a joint plea to DOS and DHS to NOT waste visas. I think that will actually work believe it or not. Also copy congress and senate on that.
p.s. - So many backlogged folks work in Boston-DC corridor. You should be able to devote one day of travel for your own sake. Just do it.
One thing I fail to understand .. USCIS needs $$ to stop the layoffs. 25k visas are available so move the dates and get $$ and pay the salaries, so all are happy.. why is this not possible
Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
I understand about EB-1 being given preference, though I hope it is based on actual demand and not something else.
But I am very surprised there was a CO - EB5 meeting. Why it there none for rest of EBs? I don't think this is driven by money power or anything like that as government doesn't work on that basis. May be there is a process (even if it's a paid one) which we are not aware of.
I can vouch for the USCIS resource shortage.
Its been 8 days since my case approved but there is no update about card being produced and mailed.
We are seeing this same for other users in both GC and EAD applications where cases have been approved but no updates about card being produced since last week.
However, I do see some hope about improvement in resource availability going forward to process pending cases after I got the below update from USCIS.
USCIS Provides Greater Flexibility in Processing Work Authorization Requests for Asylum Applicants
WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services today announced a regulatory change to provide greater flexibility in the processing of initial employment authorization documents (commonly called EADs) for asylum applicants by removing the burdensome and agency-imposed 30-day time frame. The final rule becomes effective on Aug. 21.
This change provides USCIS sufficient time to receive, screen and process applications and to address national security and fraud concerns, maintain technological advances in identity verification and further deter those who may attempt to defraud the legal immigration system. It also gives the agency flexibility to shift limited adjudicator resources as needed. In the past, the agency has been forced to divert resources away from other types of benefit requests to meet the 30-day time frame.
The 30-day time frame was implemented by regulation more than 20 years ago. Since then, filings of asylum applications have spiked and USCIS has developed additional critical background screening and vetting procedures to reduce fraud and identify threats to national security and public safety.
“Removing this self-imposed internal processing time frame gives USCIS the operational flexibility to conduct the kind of systematic vetting and identity verification procedures the public expects from an agency charged with protecting national security,” said USCIS Deputy Director for Policy Joseph Edlow. “A key priority for USCIS is to safeguard the integrity of our nation’s legal immigration system from those who seek to exploit or abuse it. This change will reduce opportunities for fraud and protect the security-related processes we undertake for each employment authorization application, thereby increasing the integrity of immigration benefits.”
The rule also removes the requirement that asylum applicants submit their work authorization renewal requests to USCIS 90 days before the expiration of their current employment authorization. This change reduces confusion and clarifies that asylum applicants can file their renewal work authorization applications up to 180 days before the expiration date, minimizing potential gaps in employment authorization.
For more information, read the final rule published in the Federal Register on June 22.
COVID shutdown came all of sudden, no one was expecting country wide shutdowns. Every company/offices are re-orienting/re-adjusting on fly with WFH situation. Considering these are govt funded so inefficiency compared to pvt sector will be high. On top we have administration which wants to delay/deny visa and this situation is giving them excuse.Quote:
Originally Posted by redtogreen
My hope is there is new admin later this year and they reverse these restrictive policies. But pragmatic in me knows, it will take time to implement such immi friendly policies same as this admin took 2 yrs to reach to this point.
I understand your frustration. I do believe that next two bulletins will bring faster movement for EB2I. With one month movement in this bulletin CO has begun testing the waters. Also, its been LONG since I stopped asking how come all 2008ers and many 2009ers are even citizens and we are still having these conversations. I don't think it brings any positivity by hangin on to the "Why me" thinking. Didn't mean to be preachy at the same time couldn't hold myself back from saying this. Please take it or leave it. Good Luck!Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
Second that. Next two bulletins will tell us his true intentions though. If he had no intent to give it to EBI I don't think the current advancements could have even been possible.