Yes,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q
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Yes,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q
Happyboy,Quote:
Originally Posted by happyboy
Not only economy but also Kazarian Guidance Memo dated 08-18-2010 has some impact on EB1 applications, we will know in few more months!
If they are unable to apply in EB-1, they will end up applying in EB-2. Wouldn't it be true in that case that there would not be any positive impact on spillover for EB-2?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
If they are from retrogressed countries, priority date would come into play. However, I doubt if there is a large difference between # of EB-1IC applicants vs. other countries.
Bidda
There are 11-12K EB1-IC candidates. Besides .... not all EB1 ROW candidates may be able to find a sponsor!! Thirdly ... the EB2 itself is not exempt from all the scrutiny because of Kazarian case and the memo. So we will see EB2 standards toughen too resulting into increased cycle time (which in the long run doesn't help or hurt, but in the short run helps.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
Also i140 trending in the coming months could shed some light on this! Even 10K( I&C) moving from EB1 to EB2 will definitely help the backlogged.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That’s exactly my point, all the conservative predictions are indication atleast 20K SOFAD. If we assume that EB2 ROW declines by say 25% based on the Trackitt trend and EB1 declines even by 25% (The Trackitt trend shows a 400% decline - 1/4th) then the SOFAD will be in excess of 30K easily and this will puts the dates into 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Teddy, you know i have been a great proponent of trackitt data for predictions. So yes ... it is trending very favorably. But in spirit of our desire to get secondary and tertiary confirmation of the trend ... I would like to see trackitt pending and declines trending up or at least at a higher level compared to 2010.
I am not seeing that yet. Do you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy and Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Assuming that i140 trending will stay the same(flat) in the coming months, we really don't know how many, if any, supposed to be EB1 cases are now being filed in EB2. Also we don't have the labor filing/certified data for the last four months.
So, we really don't have second check to base on:(
Veni
Although its hard to quantify EB1 and EB2-ROW separately. Its relatively easier to calculate together. Thats what the second confirmation we calculated a few posts back using i140 data above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I got that, my point was on EB1(I&C).
EB1 I&C usage increased by 130% in 2010 when compared to 2007. If this goes back to 2006 or 2007 level then we are talking about an additional 7k for the backlogged EB2(I&C), assuming ROW-EB1/2 stay the same.
Note: It's hard to determine just from i140 trending, if EB1(I&C) --> EB2 is actually happening, we can estimate to some extent only if we can get PERM receipt/certified data from DOL similar to i140 data from USCIS.
Guys check this out - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...r-fy-2011.html
This Guru has been visiting our pages for sure and reproduced what we have been writing into another format. That's good. I know some people have been asking for this kind of tool where they can change the parameters and out comes the SOFAD.
Thanks AC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
This is my first post. I have been reading qesehmk and teddy for a long time on immigration voice and found this forum in a google search.
If at all the dates move to Jan or Feb 07 for fiscal 2011, do you guys think that USCIS will have to open dates upto at least dec 07 to get more applications for the next year or else waste a lot of visas ? Another way to state the same question may be if dates don't move beyond feb07 by the end of this year, will it be possible that by Dec of 2011 they open at least 6-7 months for taking additional applications ?
I don't think so, now USCIS got good handle on i485 ( also i140 ) they will be moving dates based on demand and supply!Quote:
Originally Posted by getgreensoon
I don't think they move dates beyond jul07 this year, if they want to consider new 485s they will have to just make it current for a month and then start the same procedure.
if they move dates to some time in between Jul07 and C, they may have to face law suits
Welcome GGS ... and thanks. We have talked about this many times in the past. The common understanding is that it can go eitherway ... but it shouldn't matter to GC aspirants in terms of getting a GC. where it does matter is you get EAD and can switch companies.
If I were to bet, I would say, likely USCIS will move dates significantly forward and take in large number of apps in and then regtrogress dates back. The likelihood of that happening in 2011 is more when they have cleared cases upto may 2007. So likely we may see such large movement in 2012 rather than 11.
p.s. Unless EB1 trends significantly lower this year providing much larger SOFAD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by getgreensoon
"angryclubs
Guys check this out - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...r-fy-2011.html "
Thanks angryclubs for the link. That site also has this link:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html
I tend to agree with Q's take on this. For many people EAD itself could help a lot in reducing the tension in this wait since they can start utilizing the AC21 portability rules and also feel a little more secure about settling down here. Coming to what would USCIS do, they will probably not dare to declare it current in 2012.If they manage to clear till May 2007 PD by end of 2011 , they might decide to move the date significantly forward to maybe May 2008 by early 2012 and fill the pipeline and then retrogress the dates back to say Oct/Nov 2007.
USCIS learnt a good lesson with their previous fiasco of declaring things to be current . They will not repeat that again. Also money plays a big role in this consideration and with deficit hawks in place on most congressional committe's ,each and every department is supposed to either reduce spending or come up with other novel means of funding themselves.One such patented trick of the USCIS is to move dates forward ,fill the pipeline ...get people to file 485's and then keep on renewing the 485's with long wait times.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Getting EAD will solve almost all the issues as long want to work and able to find a job.
horn your skills to market.
In case of EB3 (yes three) .... this is actually true. If you think about it ... if you are going to have a GC only 10 years ... later ....and if you have filed 485, then that is almost as good as having 10 years of stability. You can keep renewing EAD!
Quote:
Originally Posted by happyboy
Friends this link works quite well.Quote:
Originally Posted by viypr07
Q even for EB2 having EAD is absolutely great, it allows spouses to work and gives much needed stability. For me and Leo007 both of us were so close and yet so far, for now getting EAD is almost like getting GC. For those like me in consulting its like if and only we will get the next extension. Also in the current climate even going home for a vacation is equivalent to inviting trouble at visa stamping and POE.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Acknowledgement - Attorney Ron Gotcher
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...2-backlog.html
Predictions aside he makes a very interesting point about Porting, he is correct in saying that it will saturate in sometime.
Teddy
I can feel the pain. You absolutely right ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
His comments are quite subjective ... But for those in search of hope ... this will resonate. See ... that's what I think we need to avoid. People shouldn't get trapped into false hope. I do think that conversions are not as great. 3K is a reasonable number. 6K is the absolute ceiling. But this year the big negative is that 10K FB is missing. On the plus PERM surge of ROW EB2 is not going to be as strong. And EB1 is going to be the wild card that decides how much EB2 IC gets cleared. So lets keep looking for clues to where EB1 is headed.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I also feel that EB3 -> EB2 porting wont surpass the 6K mark and it's surely not true that almost everybody from EB3 can port to EB2. However I have a feeling that some of Ron Gotcher's comments are sometimes too strong.
On the saturation related to EB3 -> EB2 porting: isn't it expected that there will be a steady flow of EB3 candidates willing to port to EB2 since someone from EB3 category might not be eligible now for EB2 but can attain credentials 1 - 2 years down the line. Maybe we will get a better idea in the next couple of years when we will have data to judge the EB3 -> EB2 porting trend for 2009, 2010 and 2011.
Thanks!
pch03,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Very good point, not only that like OP(don't remember exactly but said employer got 2000 employees and will start porting most of them), it will not be that easy for same employer or matter of fact even for the new employer to keep on filing for new EB2 positions... here are some thing any employer have to consider before filing new PERM/i140 application..
1. Does the employer have a EB2 job opening(s) to start PERM process in the first place...
2. If answer to Q1 is yes, then once he promote EB3 employee to EB2 position what will happen to the current EB3 position?
3. Employer can not tailor new positions to fit current or future employee.... that means the position he/she is applying PERM (EB1/EB2/EB3) should be well documented
4. How many employees he is considering for porting , $$ for porting also need to show supporting financial(ability to pay)
5. Also on every PERM/i140 application with DOL/USCIS employer need to indicate current number of employees.
6. If the employer is submitting new PERM/i140 for EB2 positions and there is no change in # of employees,or decrease, then that will trigger a red flag at DOL and USCIS...
7. If the employer found guilty/at fault, then he/she will be fined and can not file new PERM cases...
So there should be a break-even point some where which we should be able to find, hopefully, this year based on the trending!
Friends,
While we are gathering here to keep track of our GCs... I would like to know if any one of you know any good volunteer-non-profit organizations.
I am wondering if we could start giving visibility to such organizations by listing them here. Sharing information... and who knows one of us may want to go and volunteer some time for society!
This is just an initial idea. Any suggestions for how could we better do this ... are welcome. Feel free to post those suggestions under a thread by the same name.
Best Regards,
Q
That's indeed a very good idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I can think of the organization KIVA (http://www.kiva.org/); there main administrative office is in San Francisco though they are spread all over the world. They loan money to individuals/organizations for undertaking any projects or business ventures. The borrower is supposed to pay back the loan in future. People lend money specific to a person/project and can also track the progress, i.e. whether the entire loan has been raised for the project or the person is repaying back the loan, etc. One can see the list of projects that are currently getting funded at http://www.kiva.org/lend. I came to know about this organization a few months back and so far my experience has been positive.
Thanks!
Thanks PCH. I will put this in the other section.
Meanwhile.. updated header to simplify understanding with new image and format.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
I used to religiously volunteer for Take Stock in children and currently a member of Red Cross; Eexcept for taking classes, I haven't spent much volunteer time with Red Cross NCA. I can talk to either of them, if you can tell me, what I must "talk" or what information I'd need to proceed further.
It's really a good idea.
Teddy
I absolutely agree. Even for EB2 having the EAD itself is a huge step in gaining some stability and freedom from the immense tension of stamping one undergoes every time in the home country.
On the other hand about the question of good NGO's raised by Q , there is one particular organization which is doing a lot to end child abuse in India. It has been featured in many places and the founder also recently won the CNN women of the year award .She has spoken on TED ( by the way if you want to check out inspiring speeches do watch TED for many speakers ) .
http://www.ted.com/speakers/sunitha_krishnan.html
http://www.hinduonnet.com/mp/2009/07...3050560100.htm
http://www.unodc.org/india/rha_sunit...nan190408.html
The video content is present on the TED website ,the other links are from the hindu newspaper and United nations office.They are a 501(c) organization in the states as well and contributions are tax exempt. Please feel free to move the post to a different section if attention would be diverted.Also the link can bring tears to one's eyes due to some hard hitting reality.
I have a few more Organizations in mind which are genuine ,internationally acclaimed are really doing some good work, do not wish to flood this thread.I will post in the charities thread when that comes up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
gcseeker
appreciate it. i am really encouraged by posts like yours and leo and veni and others in support of this idea of sharing information about NGOs / 501c's / Non-profit/not-for-profits.
However we certainly do not want those who come lookng for immigration related information to be bombarded with that information unless they want to go out and seek it from that forum. So if you could, PLEASE post it under that particular forum.
Thanks again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
New Demand data is out. Eb2-China's numbers are marginally down which is good. Nothing is expected in the VB for EB2-India.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Pleasantly surprised to find Q's blog on google search :)
I was searching for "immigration reform news" and found this forum :)
How can i not join this forum; I have been a silent admirer of Q, T and many others at iv...
Kudos to all of you for keeping the discussion so healthy and lively !!!
In Demand Data used for Jan 2011 VB: there were 13,125 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)
In Demand Data used for Mar 2011 VB: there were 13,175 EB2-I apps prior to 2007( 2006 apps)
Not really a good news, but totally not unexpected either.
Teddy / Leo agree w both of you. No date movement expected for EB2I. But its not a bad news either. The conversions are just enough to consume annual quota.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Alex, Ravi
Thanks for joining us! Welcome. Look forward to your thoughts too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alex99
Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Isn't it actually good news and continue to be good news as long as the pending #s prior to 2007 continue to be around 13,000, until July 1st 2011? Does this # seem to indicate that Porting cases are not in thousands, significant I agree, but definetly not in thousands?Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Since demand went up by 50 and the monthly quota is 250, I assume that 300 porting cases are coming up each month . Which translates to 3600 a year. Q ? Spec? Teddy?:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda