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I agree. Have been tracking Trackit approvals on a regular basis & do not see any large # of EB3 ROW approvals (as compared to FY2013 & FY2014). I think this year will follow similar trend like what happen in 2013 Sep VB for EB3I. Any thoughts??Quote:
Originally Posted by perestroika
Attachment 799
I am again forced to reconfirm my belief that CO is biased towards EB3 ROW. He wants to hold EB3 ROW steady to prevent any fall across to EB3-I thus giving priority to EB3 ROW even if there is no demand in EB3 ROW for this fiscal year. EB3-I guys it is time to take up some action and write to our lawmakers about CO's discriminatory behaviour. It is not a big deal to frame a letter and contact lawmakers. Let us unite and tale action.
Demand means I-485 which are in approvable state. He cannot consider a freshly filed I-485 as "demand". That amounts to wasting visa numbers to favour his favourite category EB3-ROW.
Based on I-485 filings up to May end, I am forecasting the approvable EB3RoW trackitt demand sample to be between 190 to 210 for FY2015. Anything more than that will require a substantial reduction in I-485 processing times by USCIS, which is not going to happen. A 190 to 210 trackitt sample would be around 22K actual approvals. So, a 2K to 3K FA is not unrealistic. CO shutting down the possibility of a bigger EB3I movement is a huge concern. Either he has seen something we haven't seen or is just continuing his streak of incompetence (and as gcq mentioned, probably his streak of EB3RoW bias as well.)Quote:
I agree. Have been tracking Trackit approvals on a regular basis & do not see any large # of EB3 ROW approvals (as compared to FY2013 & FY2014). I think this year will follow similar trend like what happen in 2013 Sep VB for EB3I. Any thoughts??
Good analysis, by the way!
perestroika,Quote:
Originally Posted by perestroika
I agree with you.
Everything (at least the information we are privy to) says there should be some FA to EB3-I this year.
Frankly, I've given up trying to understand the situation, given such conflicting "information" from what we see and what Co is saying.
I guess what will be, will be.
Spec and other Gurus: Are the recent statements by CO a death knell to EB 2I for this year, especially given that there are no RFEs so far for medicals (like last year) ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Please let me know if you want to join action against CO's apparently discriminator behavior. We should plan on writing to CO himself and lawmakers. We as a group has done this in the past for under allocation of EB3-****iisas in 2009. We need to take action. Once a proper letter is framed, just post/fax the letter to CO and other lawmakers.
We need to do this quickly as once this fiscal year will come to an end, CO cannot take any corrective action as current law prohibits any corrective action once fiscal year has expired.
I’m not sure where we are heading. It’s not wise to criticize CO here. I see he is doing his best to not to waste any visas, this is what we saw for last few years. I do remember 2 occasions previously he predicted something and ended up doing something else. I think it’s because of not having proper info from other agencies. I was searching for those 2 old posts and could not find them but I found this one year old post which shows how reasonably accurate we are in our assumptions and predictions : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2794#post52794
This year it is really getting tougher to predict anything due to lack of data: No DD from DOS anymore, No monthly processing volume numbers of i-485 & I-140 from USCIS, no April i-485 inventory so far.
But I found one interesting pointer i.e. i-140 approval figures for last 4 consecutive quarters: in FY13 it was 85k and the consequences was high EB2-ROW demand and high visa consumption and EB2-ROW became unavailable. Again now in FY15 for the last 4 quarters the I-140 approvals peaked to 86k and there is no sign of reduction. This is also showing same effect of high EB2-ROW consumption. But we don’t know what is the ratio of ROW applications in this 86k figure, this year EB2-I allocations will be dependent on this ratio.
GCQ - it's not personal. CO is just one man. He is following the law within the DoS policies and objectives. If anything my sense is he is eager to communicate as best as he could to avoid surprises. See all these updates he provides to AILA etc are absolutely not required.
However I do agree that there is a certain anti-India and anti-china bias in the whole immigration system.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
I agree with you - he has a track record of under-promising and then over-delivering, a time tested strategy for government officials and bureacrats. Manufacturing pleasant surprises in times of manufactured adversity gives the illusion of performance, but when considered objectively, it is a measure of inefficiency. Applying spillover at the very end instead of spreading it out evenly is an inefficient system. Thousands of careers and lives are being put into abeyance, year after year, with no consequence. People affected by CO's modus operandi - deliberate or not - are realizing they are being shortchanged. Criticisms are bound to come; if CO is doing the best he can, he will ignore them.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I also wonder about CO statement regarding EB3 in general.
I don't think there are sudden surge in PERM that justifies being so pessimistic
I think as many said CO is under promising to over deliver
the economy is picking up but not booming to create a sudden surge in demand and PERM figures prove it.
There is one important thing we have to note, he said that he will see the impact of May movement in October, which is absolutely correct but how many cases he will receive by then? probably will be similar to latest years demand so it won't be significant to affect the cut off date, I can see in this comment that CO is just assuming the demand will be high. I don't also expect a high carry over volume from EB3ROW this year into next.
HI gurus,
my priority date is 15/12/09(EB2I), is there a possibility of getting greened next year at least?
I have this strange feeling that if any cheese is left over for EB3I in next 2 months, it will be moved to EB2I while EB3I applicants are busy responding to RFEs? Can this happen? That way they will get a chance to clear many of the EB2I applicants who responded to RFEs last year and are still waiting in line. As for EB3I, they have become cash cows thanks to the porting phenomenon, so there is no point in killing the hen that lays golden eggs! Maybe after seeing what happened within EB3C and EB2C categories a few months ago, they are determined to not let it happen again. I may be way off on this one, but who knows!
Sorry if this is a stupid question.
Can someone explain how is EB1 India always current? It looks like EB3 India/EB2 India have to wait till the last minute to get any spillover. Shouldn't it be the same with EB1 India also? Why is that different?
Good question. Going by Spec's Trackitt data parsing and actual visas given, it looks like EB1I has got ~ 4.5K, 9.5K, 9.5K, and 13K in the last 4 FY's at a pretty even pace. Never paid attention to that but will be interested to know how that happened with EB1's.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Although EB1 India uses more than 7% within overall EB1, the entire category always has numbers to meet the full demand of the entire category. Thus entire category is current even thought individual countries exceed their 7% so-to-speak quota.
Just to illustrate the point further - if suddenly the overall EB quota were to jump to 500K (hypothetically of course) the EB2-India quota would be approximately 10K and the entire EB2 category quota would be 120K approx. Now EB2I certainly will have more demand than 10K per year. But EB2 as a category never has 120K demand. Thus EB2 category will become current and thus EB2I although will have more demand than its quota - will become current.
Hope this explains.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
The law does not allow spare visas in EB3 to "Fall Up" to EB2.
If EB3 visas remain unused, then they are "wasted" - or rather they will form part of Family Based FY2016 calculation. EB benefits from the reverse where all FB visas are not used.
EB3-I are "cash cows" in the sense that they are now the only group who submitted their I-485 before the fee change that came into effect from the August 2007 VB onwards. Under the old fee, those people have to pay for all renewals of EAD and AP. It's high time that USCIS gave a moratorium on further fees for those people affected (or Congress passed something if that is necessary).
Are there any indications of any unused FB visas available for EB2 next year or are we in this for the long haul where dates have no net movement YoY and instead keep regressing ! what a sorry state of affairsQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Since all FB Categories are currently retrogressed, there should never be any spare visas available from FB.Quote:
Originally Posted by geniusmag
I wouldn't expect any more than EB received this year. Of any that are available, they are allocated in exactly the same way as the initial 140k, so EB2-I would initially only receive about 2% of the number available (28.6% x 7%).
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for correcting me on this. I don't care where EB2I and EB3I cut-off dates land by the end of this year, but wasting visas when so many applicants are waiting in line for years will be too bad.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If the unused or wasted visas (which should have gone to EB3-I, but didn't) are counted against the FB category, does it help EB2I? i.e. would it ease FB congestion and the extra visas go to EB2I.
Also, what do you mean by "EB2-I would initially receive..."? This will be the first few months of the next FY, right? Does it mean dates may potentially move if the entire quota is expended right away?
How much SO do you think EB2I would get this year? Also, what does the view look like for next year, you know from the 20,000 ft elevation.
Iatiam
Iatiam,Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
We don't know yet whether CO/USCIS will still pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat. It doesn't help EB2-I at all. The nature of the FB calculation is such that the number available to them does not increase, even if spare EB numbers are available (they'll still get 226k). The reason for this is the number of IR approvals.
I'm talking about the 7% allocation. Before any spillover (either FA or FD). 28.6% (the % EB 2 receive) times 7% = 2.002%.Quote:
Also, what do you mean by "EB2-I would initially receive..."? This will be the first few months of the next FY, right? Does it mean dates may potentially move if the entire quota is expended right away?
2% of 140k = 2.8k. If there were 10k spare FB visas (not likely), then EB2-I would have an allocation before SO of 150k * 2% = 3k.
I think both depend on processing speeds. This FY depends on USCIS and next FY depends on DOL. EB2-non IC appear to have lots of pending I-485 cases and PERM demand has not dropped that much to date as far as I can see. There still seem to be significant numbers of EB2-I cases still pending within the current 01OCT08 COD. I can equally see no further movement this FY or some fairly modest forward movement.Quote:
How much SO do you think EB2I would get this year? Also, what does the view look like for next year, you know from the 20,000 ft elevation.
Iatiam
Texas Service Center------------------------------------------Nebraska Service Center
-------------- Pending---Approved--Denied---RFE----Pending--Approved--Denied-------RFE
June 2015-------424-------13------- 0-----------4-------356-------46-------0-------------- 7
May 2015 -------437-------32------- 0-----------3-------402-------49-------0-------------- 7
April 2015-------469-------41------- 0-----------10------451-------78-------0--------------12
March 2015-----510-------32------- 0-----------5-------529-------48-------0--------------14
Feb 2015--------542-------29------- 0-----------3-------577-------25-------0--------------11
Jan 2015--------571-------16------- 0----------- 2-------602-------27-------0--------------3
Trackitt numbers for EB2ROW
TSC slowed down considerably but NSC is running at same pace or even more..
USCIS sudden pick up of processing speed and DOL's quick PERM approvals put a dent on EB2I's hopes.
Are you taking into account the fact that in the first 2 quarters USCIS has approved nearly 15K less of EB 485's. They have approved only 47,600 for the first 2 quarters as opposed to 62,353 last year.
Related or unrelated, for the FB approval, for the first two quarters this year there have been 106,544 approvals where as for the same quarters last year it was 122,822.
I haven't looked at the earlier years and speed to which they can ramp up to. I wonder if they can process all the visas or will we be seeing some spillovers.
May be Question in Wrong forum, my PD is Dec 2008. I opened congressional enquiry for which USCIS responded case in Security check. I called them again last week and still security check. Does it take 3 years for security check? I had filed in Feb 2012 and that time when I called FBI they had told me they verified and sent results back in 4 weeks. Anyone in same situation?
Id say start another congressional enquiry giving them the entire timeline.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_dec_2008
Any idea on how much time does the USCIS gives to respond to an "Employment Verification Letter" RFE ?
Its the same for any RFE ~ 90 daysQuote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
The 2015 Ombudsman Report has been published.
One interesting snippet of information is contained on page 66. This gives Details for I-140 receipts/Approvals for EB1 to EB4 (EB4 uses an I-360 rather than I-140). It's quite rare to get any I-140 information with this level of detail.
The FY2014 figures for EB3 don't look correct, so I have am only really looking at FY up to 2013.
Some highlights for FY2013:
EB1 Receipts - 20,258 (appears to increase to 22,874 in FY2014)
EB1 approval rate - 87-89%
EB2 Receipts - 46,720 (appears to increase to 63,644 in FY2014)
EB2 approval rate - 93-94%
EB3 Receipts - 4,617 (appears to decrease significantly from 10,926 in FY2012)
EB3 approval rate - 81%
The data also seem to confirm the rise in % of EB2 I-140 versus EB3 I-140.
Trying to adjust the figures for the different I-140 denial rates, the data seems to suggest the following EB2% approvals based on total EB2/EB3 receipts. This is something of a kludge figure, since the receipts and approvals are not the same applications. For trend purposes it is probably adequate.
% EB2 I-140 Approvals of Total EB2/EB3 Approvals
FY2009 - 53%
FY2010 - 67%
FY2011 - 73%
FY2012 - 83%
FY2013 - 92%
People upgrading earlier PD cases will tend to increase the %.
The data also seems to confirm a large increase in EB2 cases from FY10 onwards. I've used 2.05 applicants per approved I-140 and a 5% I-485 denial rate to calculate the figures:
Potential CP/Adjustment Cases for EB2
FY2009 - 35,092
FY2010 - 69,845
FY2011 - 88,021
FY2012 - 83,972
FY2013 - 85,528
Again, this is something of a kludge figure.
With EB2-I accounting for 55-60% of PERM cases, that gives some fairly scary potential numbers for later PD year EB2-I cases. Again, it's worth considering that many of the cases will actually have an earlier PD because they are upgrades from a previous EB3 case.
As ever, I urge you read the above using a large pinch of salt. The quality of the data is uncertain (even though it is the best we will likely see) and a certain amount of assumption is still required. I still hope people find it interesting, but don't over interpret my comments.
Spec, thanks for the analysis. I was curious about the denial rates, as they seem to be somewhat high and should have resulted in cut-off dates moving a little faster in all categories from everything else we know.
The report makes a statement about the denials, but I'm not sure I understood it. My own understanding is that the denial rates are high because approvals are only counted for petitions approved in a given fiscal year. Petitions filed but not approved in a given fiscal year are counted as denials, even though those petitions might be approved in the subsequent fiscal year. Did I understand this correctly, or is your understanding different from mine?
perestroika,Quote:
Originally Posted by perestroika
That is not my understanding.
Completions equals Approvals plus Denials i.e. cases that had a final adjudication result.
Completions in a FY are not the same cases that are received in the FY.
Cases filed in a FY but not completed would be classified as Pending. The Pending figure is not given in the data in the report.
At the end of Q2 FY2015, USCIS reported they had 36,117 I-140 cases Pending.
Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details
Looks like CO heard you; you are being fast tracked! :-P Keep us posted!Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Spec, thanks for clarifying. Now, that makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It's still staggering to see a 20% denial rate on new EB3 I-140 petitions. Do we know if these denials are proportional to the country chargeabilities, or are they primarily for India?
:-) should be. I should have done this long back !Quote:
Originally Posted by perestroika
Congratulations for getting one step closer to your GC! ( It is funny to congratulate for an RFE though).Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
On a side note looks like RFEs are being sent for EB3 I. There is one on trackitt with Aug 2004 EB3 I PD. One was reported with a June 2006 PD a week back.
I am hoping for big jump for EB3 I!
"Overall, I favor EB2-I ending FY2015 with a COD somewhere in Q4 2009"
Spec,
Do you still believe on this or changing your perspective in the first page prediction you have said?
Hi GCQ, is your case with Nebraska or Texas service center ?Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Thanks
That's a great sign for EB3-I.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
I think it is Nebraska. Originally sent to texas in 2007, but was transferred and receipted in Nebraska as part of workload balancing it seems.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn