Before i attempt that - what is current 'known' drop out rate?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
PS: being a newbie my optimism is on much higher side. I am sure it will get a reality touch as time goes on. Please bear with me till such time. :)
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Before i attempt that - what is current 'known' drop out rate?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
PS: being a newbie my optimism is on much higher side. I am sure it will get a reality touch as time goes on. Please bear with me till such time. :)
I am not working for direct client - even client did not specify any end date for my project.Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
but I got 3 years extension based on I -140 approval.
Are those assumptions for both China and India?Quote:
Originally Posted by immi2910
If not, what do you want to assume for China?
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
That's the problem - there is no known drop out rate!
Will the drop out rate be different for China vs India.
Will the drop out rate be different depending on the occupation? Probably yes, so what are the different rates and what % do they represent for Chinese and Indian applicants.
You see the problem.
Thats definatly possible. Construction and Manufactring were more affected than IT , I think.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Lets not separate out IC numbers for now. We can average that out. As my first attempt, can you please run the numbers for following drop rate?
2007- 80% ( I reduced this because of double filing, labour substitution etc)
2008- 75% (Trackitt data for PD2008 shows reduction on around 12% from PERM->I140. I am adding my best guess on top of that)
2009 - 90%
I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.
Thanks for your help.
suninphx, my priority date is end of 2009, so as much as assuming huge drop out rates for 2008 will "help" me, i don't think that is the case. I agree with Spec's assumption of people being resilient. Also the bad economy is factored in the low filings of 2009 PERM. If people were able to get GC filed in 2008 that would have to be after the managers factored in the economic environment. I know a friend who lost his job when Lehman went under, his wife lost her job in software one month after that but they survived.
So i will hope for being positively surprised by that not being the case but can't think of reasons why people will not take salary cuts or relocate to a lesser desired city and preserve the priority date.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It is for India and China. I am repeating the relevant portion of my calculation:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).
Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants
I think it is more like 70:30. I have explained my rationale in my other posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I agree with point of 'people being resilient'. Thats definatly there. Also, our opinions are formed based on our own experiences. Like you have seen your friends surviving , I have seen otherwise. So may be thats influecing by opinion. And remember when people change jobs, there is double PERM filing.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
I am just trying to play out my best case scenario to just have an idea. :)
In my opinion, 2008 has a higher drop out rate. People were hopless after missing 2007 Fiasco. Many of my friends gave up and returned home.
The second thing is that in 2008 many cases were audited and some of them were audited for more than 2 years. Many folks changed jobs in this process and filed PERMs with new employers.
I think many of the 2008 PERMs are not active any more. The drop out rate is much higher than 2007 for sure.
The 2007 folks have much higher security after getting EAD/AP, so very few of them gave up their GC applications. For the 2008 folks, most of them suffered much more and had no security at all and drop out ratio is way higher.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
i agree with deepak. Even mine will show as Certified-Expired and , PD is Nov 15 , 2007 and My 140 got approved. i even got 3 years h1 extension based on I 140.
that is fine. both certified and certified expired, we have to count as contributors to PERM. the labors may show certified expired status 180 days after certification.Quote:
Originally Posted by rahul2011
I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
Attachment 181
Thanks Spec! The results are very interesting! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I hope the presentation gave you what you wanted, or at least you can extract sufficient information to suit your purpose. It was difficult to know how to do it fairly concisely. I don't want to post the full detail. I t will become confusing and it too much for most people to take in.
PS to Kanmani,
I have restored your post, which I noticed you very considerately had deleted. Thanks for the thanks!
We all like that from time to time. Don't worry too much about posting them occasionally - I can remove then later!
Spec, thanks for your hard work. I think it is great to have different senarios.
It looks like this year's range should be 11/22/2007 to 5/1/2008.
The worst senario is 11/22/2007 and the best senario is 5/1/2008.
Personally I think a middle point might be the final movement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am new to this forum, but following from the past 4 months and finally joined
Congrats for all those got GC's and PD date current.
EB2-I PD July 11 2007, Nebraska got approval today. It will keep the hope for future PD movement.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Yes -this gives me a very precise range using which I can build my scenarios. Thanks again for your help.
A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.
I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by meetasn
Please share your scenarios with us. I look forward to reading your analysis. It will help us understand the future movement better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated :) . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?
Wov! Guys, where's he getting numbers from. Looks like he is really respecting the Oct VB movement. I am amazed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
There are around 40 EB2-I (incl. NIW) approvals in trackitt too for the month of Oct. Out of these around 27 folks have PDs between mid-April to mid-July (i.e. the PDs that got current in the Oct bulletin). I don't think we are certain yet that they will approve all pending (and pre-adjudicated) applications from 2007 or whether they will randomly approve around ~1400 EB2-I+C primarily filed during 2007 (700 quarterly quota for both EB2I and EB2C) cases during the first quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
If we can validate the calculations against real numbers, it will be extremely useful, to say the least. I think that can only come from the USCIS Inventory (with the monthly breakdown) and relies on it being published during a time when the new applications have been received, but none have been approved. That might prove quite difficult, unless the dates retrogress for a while. Otherwise, like the DOS Demand Data, the numbers are too dynamic.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Suninphx, I agree with your prediction. I think April 08 is a good estimation. I think folks before April 08 should have a good chance to submit 485, but may not get GC in this FY. But I think EAD/AP should be possible for these folks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Yes, I am amazed that Mr.CO is approving these cases without any delay. At least six guys on mitbbs got GC with PD later than July 1st 2007. Totally more than 40 approvals have been reported in the first 12 days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I think it is very possible. As far as the approval is around 700, that does not violates any immigration law. Nobody can attack him for moving PD in big leaps. All these politicians don't want to get into trouble.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
sportsfan 50K ahead of you is way overestimation. Typically 2.5K per month would give you 30K per year. I would be comfortable with 2.5K per month formula.
I can say with certainty that you will be able to file 485 within 1 yr from now and should have a GC 2 years from now.
The question I would ask myself if I were you - do I have the luxury to wait that much (which doesn;'t sound too much compared to what you have already spent) & secondly what am I losing in my career in pursuit of GC (if anything at all).
As I said - for you there definitely is light at the end of tunnel and its not a freight train ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Sportsfan
Welcome to this forum.
Regarding the Dense and light years, there is no data available as of now to consider them as dense and light and moreover asper the perm data available, both are equally dense, also 2008 does have a high potential to yield as many I485 as 2007.
As Spec pointed out the resilient nature of our guys , even in the deep recession there is a chance of retaining the PDs , by recapturing them in the years 2009, 2010 onwards.
So please compare Yesterday's two tables and come to an idea by yourself that if you believe there are drop outs and multiple perms then go by Suninphx table and if you dont think so go by Specs table ( this is just an assumption until the original datas come in to picture)
Both the tables were worked out by Spectator
Spec/Veni,
How did you come up with this formulae to calculate the received date for Perm application
=DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI
This seems to work for my case number but not for one of my friend.
Not to dash anyone's optimism, but we all seem to be taking 25k SOFAD for granted. There is 30k 140 backlog, 10k of it is more than last year, pointed out by Teddy. Last Q4 they did indicate them jumping on E1 n E2ROW. So what mitigating factors are there to consider 25k n not 20k SOFAD.
I am just afraid of too high hopes. I feel that Nov VB move indicates what date CO thinks will get GC this year, anymore he will take to have buffer and have some inward path into next FY.
Sportsfan
Your are calculatingby taking the total perm certified in the year 2008 instead you have to take the total number of perms with 2008 priority date by looking into the table horizontally. There are 23,503 perms with PD 2008
Hi sportsfan,
Calculation from Perms filed:
When if you this this link from spec
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)
You can notice that total perms
for 2007 - 28977
for 2008 - 27657
for 2009 - 18740
for 2010 - 24321
if we see in 2006, there are about 2300/per month on average and in 2007( till July) are about same 2300/month average, and some people here believe that there are about 5k people whose priority date in this range who missed the boat which makes average as 3000k/month and i agree that, 2007 is very very dense (i myself know around 5-6 companies who have given around 50-60 labors as substitution, so i can imagine who it would have effect in whole country).
According to above data i feel in 2008, average/month will not exceed 2300/month
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.
That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.
Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.
I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.
Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.
See this post, which you probably have already looked at.
At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?
I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread. You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.
In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.
I think you should be current in the beginning of FY 2013. Once the demand is less than 10k in the next October, Mr.CO will start building another pipeline. You should be able to submit your 485 in the next October or Nov.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Just based on the language given in the recent visa bulletin, here is what I think would happen.
"While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility"
While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated - This part indicates that at least another 6 months of movement is expected in this FY
they may not be made on a monthly basis - This sets the expectation that they may not move in next two bulletins and wait for another 2 months and then move it only in January by another 3 months.
and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility - This indicates that the dates would move back to Nov or Dec 2007 around March 2012 and will remain there until the next pipeline building starts in September 2012 bulletin.
For approval, yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
If we take the assumption of Cut Off date movement in FY2012 based on 35k, but actual SOFAD of 25k, then FY2013 would start with 10k applicants in the system with an earlier PD. If DOS move the dates again similarly to this year in Q1 FY2013, than your PD might become Current, allowing you to file I-1485.
You would be something like the 20,000th (plus porting cases with earlier PDs that get approved during the time it takes to adjudicate) case for the year, so actual approval would be delayed until later in the year, when sufficient visas can be allocated. But if you consider the processing time for the I-485, it probably wouldn't be any longer than a ROW applicant, applying at the same time, as that will probably be the rate limiting step.
Patience is a virtue. It's a good lesson to learn.Quote:
Originally Posted by dce.deepak
Yes- depending upon how many of them are non IC this could very well hurt.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
We never know how to intepret those statements and in previous instances their prediction was wrong.
Anyway if we consider that there are 5600 combined for Iand C, quarterly spillover for first quarter will be available in December ( around 4.5 to 6.5k) which makes available visas around 10k to 12k. But right now according to our Guru's calculation there will be atleast 19k demand. So remaining 7k to 9k people will continuously call them either through infopass or through senator. These people can be satisfied to an extent in 2nd Quarter. This is will be difficult situation for DOS to keep existing dates.
So by February bulletin dates might retrogress and go head to PD January '08 to PD March'2008 by June visa bulletin in May'2012 like last year.
And in case if demand they get is low due to any factor ( read this if are very optimistic :) )
1) demand decreased by 5000k this time and uscis explained it vaguely that some correctiions had to be made due to some mistakes
2) many I140 are abandoned due to various reasons
3) of they want to build demand by applying some common sense, they need to move dates anywhere between Jan'08 to april'08 in next visa bulleting or January visa bulletin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reader