Printable View
My concern is that the dates should not retrogress in the coming months.
If I understand correctly... If the backlog before April 15th is cleared, the dates will not retrogress in the subsequent months. Right? Guru's can you please educate me of this....
It may or may not retro. if Porting and PWMB demand is more than what DOS allocate then it can retro. Assume that demand come 800 and DOS allocate only 700 out of 2800 then it will retro but to prevent retro CO can allocated 800. But again if at some point if demand exceeds 2800 before spill over starts date will retro.Quote:
Originally Posted by valuablehurdle
valuablehurdle,Quote:
Originally Posted by valuablehurdle
Based on FY2010 trending, unless documentarily qualified porting numbers (EB3I-->EB2I) are more than 500 per month EB2I should stay at 15APR2007 until some spillover numbers are made available.
On the otherhand EB2C should see at-least two week forward movement every month starting October Bulletin.
Thanks for your kind words!
All the folks after 2007 have the same wish: get EAD/AP one year or two years earlier.
Originally I thought BTM would make our dreams come true, but the cold blooded sep. VB killed this dream again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by superdesi2100
Veni
Thanks for updating the 140 and Eb1 calculations thread, I still don't get that how the 16894 eb1 receipts for fy2010 (which was published from AILA recently) is derived from the total receipts and perm approvals. (even with 2 month lag)
There are couple of typos/errors (not sure)
Total fy2011 eb1 receipts are 13794, but you have 14092
Total 140 receipts for fy2010 are 77320, but you have 77280
not a big number difference though
Hi Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quick clarification. If all the backlogs till Apr 15th 2007 are cleared by Sep-2011 then the date needs to be moved for EB2I per monthly quote atleast by a week or two isint in order to preadjudicate the visas for the pending I-485 from Apr 15 2007 - Aug 17th 2007.
If you can get some patents, I think that's more than enough for EB1. Any thing less (publishing papers and supervising, etc) will always have uncertainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
In addition to what Veni Added.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
The only time Eb2 has been going back and forth is during 2008 and early 2009 and i guess the reason for that was the 2007 fiasco as USCIS/DOS were still trying to get their hands around it, which is understandable.
Once again if we look at the 2007 inventory it is almost double as compared to any previous years where more people have been filing in Eb2 which triggered more Labor and I140 apart from the 2007 fiasco. These two reasons combined could have resulted in the back and forth movement of dates during 2008 and 2009.
I may be wrong but I have that USCIS have a tendency to move back the dates after 3-4 years and this happens in a cycle but then they come back nicely within the same year or the following year. I will see if i can find that graph again.
This year and last year have been pretty consistent in terms of date movement and i think the reason is because they are able to hold the ball and i am sure they do not want to drop it again.
There is a possibility of retrogressing depending on the head winds(specified by Senior Members earlier) which mainly are the Porting and the New Eb2 category which they just introduced.
The SOFAD on the other hand will be dependent on EB1 filings and EB2-ROW. Based on the information(more reports and data being provided to public) it seems like they will be moving in a planned manner.
Not necessarily. There are PWMB + Porting applications taht can have PD before Apr 15 2007. If atleast 300 such applications are ready for approval every month in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2012, dates will not move untill theose applications are exhausted (worst case, till May/June 2012.. that is when Spillover will start).
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvinayam
I agree with this.
This is very true. I think their main goal is to constrain these labors as much as they can.
Firist, the more travel these EB immigrants can do, the higher risk that they may release US secrets to foreign countries. I think that's why they tight H1B stamping as much as they can. Many people are afriad of the background check delay, thus they have to give up the travel plans to their home country. This system wants to minimize the communication between EB immigrants and home countries.
On the other hand, the longer these EB immigrants wait, the less chance that they will abandon GC and return to home country. If we wait for so many years for this GC, I doubt people will give it up easily and return to home country. Therefore, these labors will continue to work for them.
Finally, for the labor cost, most of the EB immigrants are underpaid, by limiting EAD use, we have to stick to low paid jobs. It's similar with the first several years in 1900s, cheap labor from Europe built the infrastructure in east coast.
I think these three reasons decided that Mr.CO didn't do BTM in this summer. If BTM had happened, it would be a huge relief to the EB C&I immigrants, but it's not the best for their interests.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
I think Veni probably meant "unless documentarily qualified porting numbers (EB3I-->EB2I) are less than 500 per month EB2I should stay at 15APR2007 until some spillover numbers are made available". Maybe he can correct me, if I am mistaken.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
On mitbbs, one guy attended an AC21 conference and mentioned that:
This is exactly some congressmen complained: if GC applicants can get EAD
and AP easily, they get almost the same benefit as GC holder, what's the
point of letting them wait 4-5 years? O agreed and promised that
this won't happen again.
No matter this complaint reasonable or not, a flood like 2007 seems unlikely
to happen again in the near future.
I think the congress people are not happy that many EB immigrants have EAD/AP for 4-5 years. Maybe that's one reason that Mr.Co didn't BTM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
skpanda
I was thinking actually this scenario will finally give an credible picture about the porting. If porting is peaking at 6K it would easily give us more than 300 applications each month ( it should be double that number if porting is really that high).USCIS should have an fair handle on PWMB apps.
If the dates do retrogress it would prove once and for all that porting is consuming numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
qblogfan
I don't think CO can justify the BTM at this point, pending invenotry has 8000 demand and full year IC quota is just 5600. we can assume spillover for granted but he has to have some kind of proof to do anything about that. If Eb1 yields same amount of SO next year, the dates will be easily in 2008 next year this time
qblogfan
I would agree that an repeat of the July 2007 situation is simply not possible. I have stronger faith in the direction of politics ,economy and policy than the CO or the visa bulletin itself.
1.2012 election year- Obama does not need the press going gaga over people getting GC's easily when average americans continue to suffer everyday.
2.USCIS and DOS will get an earful from their bosses if they do this.
3.The prospect of legal wrangles.
Atleast I would not factor this into my calculations. Call me pessimistic but I would prefer to go with the ground numbers.
Expecting SOFAD of 18K next year.Economy will be bad so maybe the gods will take mercy and send another 3-4k
Unknowns: EB1 surge/gaming and porting and PWMB.
To clear Dec 2007 -25/26K required in SOFAD.
Even if I think SOFAD will be 22k-best case will be Sep /Oct 2007.
I would not bet on the category getting current or pipelines getting built.Porting and EB1 surge can take care of it.
2013 is the time I would hope finally the train leaves 2007 PD's behind.
P.S This might be an super pessimistic view ..I would prefer to have the most worst case scenario in front of me rather than get my hopes dashed again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Yes, I agree with you.
The politics played a role in this last VB. The unemployment rate is high and they don't want to cause misconception that they are helping immigrants. Frankly, there is nothing wrong to BTM. The reason for delaying BTM is to make them look good. We are suffering......
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
yes, what you said also makes sense.
However, based on the current situation, it is not a sure thing that they can advance PD into 2008 in the next summer. I think maybe it will need another year's SOFAD to clean up 2007 cases. Things are going south.......we (pd2008) may have to continue to suffer for 2 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Your estimate is realistic. 2013 would be the time for late 2007 PDs.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
Also dont expect economy to add to 2012 spillover. Any change in the economy will not effect until a year i.e. 2013. Normally companies do not apply for GC immediately after they hire. They apply it normally after a year.
Yeah, I think PD 2008 need to wait for two more summers to get green.
With the new EB2 program, the porting with be more in the next year. Additionally EB5 will be faster next FY and they may consume more visas.
It is realistic that FY 2012 can only cover PD 2007.
Quote:
Originally Posted by donvar
I am glad to see that we are all now becoming more on the cautious side, more realistic, and even pessimistic.
Let the new FY begin, it will be very interesting to watch the trends in the first quarter, and then the second quarter.
USCIS's next pending 485 inventory report will be very helpful.
Thats how i think we should see it. We have no reason to believe that next year will be better or worse compared to this year. So go with what we think we had this year - which is basically ~28K SOFAD total. So next year ~28K means approx Jan 2008 by Sep 2012.
Will this change? Why not. But we can't say now whether it will change and in what direction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
you seems like new in journey.. :) join the qtr waiting club. before it used to July waiting now its may since spill over happened in May this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
K, not being realistic or being in dream can lead to loss of precious time and planning. For example, there are various young guys in my company, who have PDs in 2010, 2011. They all affectionately call me bhai, and I remind them time and again of how this entire system moves, and how much dependent we are on SO. There is one guy, whose mother is alone in India. He read somewhere about a supposed thumb rule of PD + 5 years for green card. There is another guy, who thinks dates automatically move one year at least every year. These guys are like 25-26 years of age, single, and there are various avenues, countries, open to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
My personal belief, at least at this point is to be on the conservative side, because immigration relates to lot of important life decisions for many people.
And a good balance of judgement is only obtained when there are both conservative, as well as optimistic dreamers, in any forum, I believe.
Nishant
Well put and I just wanted to type the same thing. In the movie "Negotiator" Samuel Jackson says always start off with the worst case scenario to get an baseline.
The pessimistic expectation for 2012 is actually helping me take some important career decisions.I will illustrate for the benefit of others.
Decision: Accept an promotion or seek an job change with nice hike in salary. (PD-Nov 2007)
Scenario 1:Rosy expectation that Dates will move to 2008 in 2012
If that is my expectation ,I will not risk moving to a new job or seek an job promotion since that would essentially mean that I would have to redo the whole labour and I-140 process . If the dates just move and then retrogress...I will be stuck with the same job with an EAD since AC-21 will kick in and I will not be able to get the job I wanted untill the whole gc tangle is over...which means same old job till 2013 end with no improvement in career and not getting any younger.
Scenario 2: Realistic Expectation: 2012 will not enable late 2007 PD's
This might prompt me to seek a new job right now.Move to the company with hike in salary and position in 2012 and maybe one year later get back in line in 2013.
By that time if the optimistic expectation is right ,anyhow dates would have moved and I will get GC with new job ,salary hike with no worries of AC-21 by end of 2013.
I will not lose much by the jump but have everything to gain. Always the fear of RFE's on the I-140 will be there.....that is dependent on the personal comfort level.
Same goes for 2008 PD guys who might make an nice jump in career due to this decision.....
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails"
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Murthy.com News Brief
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_encent.html
I think people with PDs post 2008 April should really jump the ship in case they get better job offer. Worst off are people with PD in Oct-Dec 2007 timeframe.
Thank you for the find. In some ways its good that you can be working for your own company while waiting for the GC. Establishing BoD as per INS requirements will be the hard part.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I think what you mean is May 2008 forward has no hope of becoming current during 2012 - so one might as well change jobs and get a good hike.
I think by and large I would agree but with a caveat - these people need to take care of their PD retention OR be prepared to lose PD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
I agree with you guys. but moving jobs and porting your PD is not easy these days...
just few facts to keep in mind before you move...
for instance in my case...my priority date is feb 2011(eb2). i got couple of new offers...defnitely there is hike in salary and position but there is a big catch...
1)most of the full time job offering companies are not ready for EB2 even though you qualify.
2)you need to wait minimum 1 year for them to start process
3) will take another 6-8months before they file labor and 3-5 months for labor approval
4) incase your case is audited you wont know how long that may take
5) 140 approval will take another 6-10months time in normal processing
one of the recent offers i got HR mentioned that incase i get 3 year extension with my current 140 then they will start my gc process 1 year before my h1b expiry.
my suggestion would be if your job is secured and you already have 140 approved and current job is good, stick to it rather than moving to new place ...finding fulltimes in H1b is tough...if you are in 5th or 6th year of h1b it is even tough(even if you have 140 approval)
if thinking of moving to consultancy companies...if you are experienced and willing to relocate anywhere in usa you can find job.....but H1b transfer and visting your home country(for visa stamp) would be biggest hurdles...
another major thing to keep in mind if recession or us market is not doing good....we may get SOFAD more for GC...but for H1b's it will be bad..
just my 2 cents..
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
very nicely put ..i have pd oct'07 and have been tempted by promotion/hike offers by recruiters...but don't think it is worth going through the whole process again ..just my personal opinion ...have seen my dear friend wait for labor audit to be cleared for 2.5 years and just feel it is better to bite the bullet and hope that 2012 i will be free ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
Has anyone coined a word like 'PWMB' for all the PWMB's who were at ill luck after Sep VB?
TTACQuote:
Originally Posted by 03May07
Third time's a charm.
My PD is Jan-2008, I hate wasting time rejecting good opportunities outside...at the same time I can't take the decision of accepting the newer opportunities with the fear of boarding next PWMB....
Still thinking....not sure what I'll do now since Spillover-2011 suspense has concluded.
Good Luck with your decisions, people like me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think expecting the dates to not even reach Oct in 2012 may be too pessimistic. I think Nov 2007 should be nearly certain. But guys in dec 07/Jan feb 08 are the ones who are in limbo which reminds me maybe we should try inception in CO's mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
I think we cannot really estimate porting and its impact. I see the 6k number being mentioned a lot but that is for the whole year after the year has been completed. We cannot really take 6k divided by 12 to be 300 per month. The amount is 6k on the whole and cannot be divided equally for each month. Some months may have heavy porting and some may be less. Filing for GC costs money to a company and that will be decided by the budget the department has. I would assume porting in the first quarter of the financial year will be more because the company will have the budget for it.
Finally not all EB3 I people think alike. Some are willing to port and some prefer to stay on EAD, but that is for the current scenario. People in either groups could change their mind and this will impact porting numbers fluctuating it further. So the bottom line is that the dates for each month could move erratically based on number of porting that month and taking a 300 count for porting per month is a fallacy.
Plus i believe July 2007 is the stumbling block for EB2 as i think someone mentioned that people being on EAD for 4-5 years is not really making CIS happy or something to that effect. WIth a count of 70 k people on EAD waiting for GC for last 4 years expecting CIS to make BTM just to get more EB2 people into EAD is not logical and for all those people who are quoting the law that EB2 has to be current for EB3 to have spillover, please realize that CIS does what it wants to do to clear the queue and it would not be the first time that CIS has bent the law to do that, and neither will it be the last.
I am in Sep 2007 (17th sep to be exact)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
I guess you have to stick to your current job till you get the GC.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcaeser
BSEV - Black Swan Event Victims
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by 03May07
Very well put together. I totally agree with your comments, I have been using the same reasoning for couple years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
Would this not be more appropiateQuote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
BSEV - Black September Event Victims
BSBV - Black September Bulletin Victims