EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-10-2011, 03:49 PM
skpanda

This is possible. If USCIS does not have enough approved EB2 applications to meet next year's spillover, the numbers will trickle down to EB3 (ROW).

However they can do that only when Entire EB2 category is current.

Example: There were around 10K EB1 and 20K EB2-ROW 485s pending 2 months ago. However EB2 IC got spillover inspite of pending applications. Only reason for that was that EB1 and EB2-ROW were CURRENT.

So yes, there is a chance that EB3 (ROW) may get spillover if EB2 does not have enough approved applications but the caveat for DOS/USCIS is they will have to make EB2 current (which i think will be a blessing in disguise for EB2 people.. although there will be a slight delay in getting their GCs.. but then good news is you can have EAD/AP and may not really care about the actual GC).

Makse sense?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RRRRRR

Hi All,

We have been talking about that visa numbers will be wasted if a BTM or a Small Movement does not happen in Q1/Q2 for EB2. I might be wrong but isn't that possible that CO stays put on EB2 and rather then opening the gates he will trickle the visa numbers down to Eb3 which will give the Eb3 people an opportunity to be happy about. I mean we have a huge backlog of Eb3 and i don't think visa will be wasted in that case. Please suggest
08-10-2011, 03:51 PM
nishant2200

sogaddu, who are the three ladies standing behind you in your avatar.
08-10-2011, 04:02 PM
nishant2200

skpanda, I am starting to believe more in this now. So then two observations:
1. They realize SO more, need pipeline, late in the game, leading to Current for EB2 and SO to EB3 ROW. Good for bigger picture because lots of guys get EAD/AP.
2. They realize SO more, need pipeline, early in the game, leading to BTM/UFM, and few people get guaranteed GC, and a few get EAD, and very less SO to EB3 ROW.

Of course these are just two hypothetical situations out of a myriad of scenarios.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

This is possible. If USCIS does not have enough approved EB2 applications to meet next year's spillover, the numbers will trickle down to EB3 (ROW).

However they can do that only when Entire EB2 category is current.

Example: There were around 10K EB1 and 20K EB2-ROW 485s pending 2 months ago. However EB2 IC got spillover inspite of pending applications. Only reason for that was that EB1 and EB2-ROW were CURRENT.

So yes, there is a chance that EB3 (ROW) may get spillover if EB2 does not have enough approved applications but the caveat for DOS/USCIS is they will have to make EB2 current (which i think will be a blessing in disguise for EB2 people.. although there will be a slight delay in getting their GCs.. but then good news is you can have EAD/AP and may not really care about the actual GC).

Makse sense?
08-10-2011, 04:08 PM
skpanda

Actually when i was talking to my gal before Sept 2011 VB, I talked about these scenarios. Ofcourse there were three more scenarios for Sept 2011 at the time

0a. EB2 IC move by 2+ months
0b. EB2 IC move to around April 2008 for BTM.
0c. EB2 IC are current to take extreme BTM

All these 3 have gone down the bin....hopefully scenario 1 that you mentioned occurs (keeping in mind the large picture that entire EB2 community will get help and few thousand GCs will go down to EB3 which badly needs a break)

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

skpanda, I am starting to believe more in this now. So then two observations:
1. They realize SO more, need pipeline, late in the game, leading to Current for EB2 and SO to EB3 ROW. Good for bigger picture because lots of guys get EAD/AP.
2. They realize SO more, need pipeline, early in the game, leading to BTM/UFM, and few people get guaranteed GC, and very less SO to EB3 ROW.
08-10-2011, 04:11 PM
nishant2200

I wouldn't mind Case 1, everyone gets EAD, although I may "loose" my GC that year because of this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Actually when i was talking to my gal before Sept 2011 VB, I talked about these scenarios. Ofcourse there were three more scenarios for Sept 2011 at the time

0a. EB2 IC move by 2+ months
0b. EB2 IC move to around April 2008 for BTM.
0c. EB2 IC are current to take extreme BTM

All these 3 have gone down the bin....hopefully scenario 1 that you mentioned occurs (keeping in mind the large picture that entire EB2 community will get help and few thousand GCs will go down to EB3 which badly needs a break)
08-10-2011, 04:13 PM
skpanda

thats very kind heart of yours speaking... good news is your GC will be delayed by a maximum of 1 year. You will have EAD and AP.. so will the entire EB2 community.

However.. i have set my expectations low and will stick to the rule of PD + 4 years for EAD in EB2. (Mine is Dec 2010 and 2014 is the magic year for me.. if I choose to wait that long :) ).

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I wouldn't mind Case 1, everyone gets EAD, although I may "loose" my GC that year because of this.
08-10-2011, 04:17 PM
mvinayam

Gurus,

Is there any possibilty for the PD to go forward atleast till July 1st 2007 before the Spillover season begins in May/June 2012????
08-10-2011, 04:19 PM
skpanda

It may be possible.. but that is a speculation. No body can accurately predict that.

If DOS/USCIS decide to be ultra conservative like the current year, the dates will be stuck at 15 Apr 2007 till April/May 2012. Reason for that is PWMBs and Porting applications with PD beofre 15 Apr 2007 will eat away the monthly allocations of 230.

I know you know this... but good news is that you will definately have your GC by end of FY 2012. I know the wait time is painful but then there is nothign that you can do about it. If you set your expecations low and dates actually move to July 2007 before May/ June 2012.. that will be a pleasent outcome. Easier said than done... neways.. Good Luck!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mvinayam

Gurus,

Is there any possibilty for the PD to go forward atleast till July 1st 2007 before the Spillover season begins in May/June 2012????
08-10-2011, 04:39 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

skpanda, I am starting to believe more in this now. So then two observations:
1. They realize SO more, need pipeline, late in the game, leading to Current for EB2 and SO to EB3 ROW. Good for bigger picture because lots of guys get EAD/AP.
2. They realize SO more, need pipeline, early in the game, leading to BTM/UFM, and few people get guaranteed GC, and a few get EAD, and very less SO to EB3 ROW.

Of course these are just two hypothetical situations out of a myriad of scenarios.

I also hoping for option 1. Do you see either of the options being exercised in near future?
08-10-2011, 04:49 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

I also hoping for option 1. Do you see either of the options being exercised in near future?

I personally don't see them making EB2 current. July 2007 will not be repeated. They will strategize, work their way around it. How, I don't know yet.

But since I don't have any data/facts yet to base this on, and neither do we have any data/facts yet to say they will make it current, we just have to base it on perception and intent of trend. CO uses words like he thinks it's extremely unwise ... So he believes in "wisdom". Can't read his mind. Also I don't think he is only person deciding all this, his hands are tied by law and consensus with USCIS, I would like to say.
08-10-2011, 05:10 PM
Jitesh

No movement in Sep Visa Bulletin

September Visa bulletin has brought disappointment to many.EB2-I has not moved at all.
What is USCIS up to?
08-10-2011, 05:20 PM
nishant2200

we know who you are :)

n*5+123 -> mesan123 -> n*6+123

sorry, couldn't resist :D

One of the moderators will solve your problem hopefully.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnnn123

First of all congrats Q....have a blast today...your approval changed moods of many of us today

now i am not able to login with my userid(mesan).....logged in 5 times with wrong password...had tough day at work...didnt count how many times entered wrong......

i tried the process of reseting the password after 15 minutes, i get the password, even i enter that i am not able to login...

Guru's unlock my mesan account and let me know the steps i need to follow to relogin ....:(
08-10-2011, 05:26 PM
leo07

Guys, last year, TeddyK, Spec were all trying to set our expectations right, but we still got carried away with June VB. I guess it's only human to want-more. Let's try to keep our expectations under check.

Realistically, I do not see EB2I becoming current anytime soon. EB2C is a possibility by the end of 2012 year or early 2013.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

I also hoping for option 1. Do you see either of the options being exercised in near future?
08-10-2011, 05:32 PM
nnnnnn123

someone recognized me thatz good... :)

will wait for moderators msg....

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

we know who you are :)

n*5+123 -> mesan123 -> n*6+123

sorry, couldn't resist :D

One of the moderators will solve your problem hopefully.
08-10-2011, 07:04 PM
mygctracker

Huge Huge congratulations Q. Enjoy your Greenary.

Gurus,

One simple question. On I-485 chart can we assume that the inventory atleast till March 2007 has been cleared by now?

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

I don't understand why the inventory chart still shows numbers against months we thought already cleared. What am I missing here?

TIA.
08-10-2011, 07:57 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by mygctracker

Huge Huge congratulations Q. Enjoy your Greenary.

Gurus,

One simple question. On I-485 chart can we assume that the inventory atleast till March 2007 has been cleared by now?

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

I don't understand why the inventory chart still shows numbers against months we thought already cleared. What am I missing here?

TIA.

Those are the cases pending due to RFE, Background Checks, awaiting response for RFE....etc.
08-10-2011, 08:40 PM
qesehmk

Pls check your private inbox.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnnn123

someone recognized me thatz good... :)

will wait for moderators msg....
08-10-2011, 08:45 PM
mygctracker

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Those are the cases pending due to RFE, Background Checks, awaiting response for RFE....etc.

Thanks Veni. Is there a way to know (roughly) the inventory for people waiting to file I-485?
08-10-2011, 09:22 PM
march272010

4 Attachment(s)

07,08,09,10 Perm data tables

I am new comer to this forum, was going through flcdatacenter.com. Created 2007,2008,2009,2010 perm data as per the mdb files, hope this might help for further analysis.

thanks
08-10-2011, 09:32 PM
Jan2008

Many congratulations Q =)
08-10-2011, 10:24 PM
aary09

its right happened with my colleague who filed under eb3I back in 2008 got his GC within 6 months by charging spouse 's country of birth who was Indian born in Europe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Country of Chargeability is what counts.

Where you born, that's the country of chargeability. In fact, you can even count your spouse's country of birth as chargability if that favors you. The lawyer puts a letter to USCIS indicating to charge spouse's country of birth, as there is no official box in the forms for this.

Let me give you one workflow, which I believe causes significant bleeding from EB2 ROW, which could have come to us.

Many indians settled in middle east many years back. Many of them are quite well off. Their kids born in middle east (Dubai, UAE, etc). They send these kids to India on engineering, medical etc, they can afford the donation fees needed. Next these guys come to USA to do masters. And next when they start working, few years down the line, EB2 ROW, since they were not born in India. I believe children of Indians born in foreign countries like this, are occupying a fair chunk of EB2 ROW. Trackitt trend maybe analysed to come to some formal percentage.

Very good observation vedu. I was just telling Teddy of this few days back.

Note: whatever I say, is for observation, learning, analysis purpose. Should not be counted as my positive or negative opinion about such events or workflows. It is what it is..
08-10-2011, 11:30 PM
GCWala

All , wanted to let you know that my friend with PD : 04-Apr-2007 got his approval today.I am newbie to this thread, but have been reading the forum comments for a very long time. Thank you all for your contribution.

Congrats Q-----------
08-11-2011, 12:08 AM
skpanda

Good to know that backlog will be cleared till 15th April so there wont be any retrogession (there were some concerns in previous posts by some people that retrogession may happen).

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCWala

All , wanted to let you know that my friend with PD : 04-Apr-2007 got his approval today.I am newbie to this thread, but have been reading the forum comments for a very long time. Thank you all for your contribution.

Congrats Q-----------
08-11-2011, 06:36 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by mygctracker

Thanks Veni. Is there a way to know (roughly) the inventory for people waiting to file I-485?

mygctracker,
You can estimate demand based on monthly PERM breakdown posted in FACTS AND DATA SECTION
Use EB2:EB3 ratio 70:30, apply denial rate at 140 stage(~15-20%) and average EB2-140 to 485 ratio 2.05.
08-11-2011, 06:39 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by march272010

I am new comer to this forum, was going through flcdatacenter.com. Created 2007,2008,2009,2010 perm data as per the mdb files, hope this might help for further analysis.

thanks

march272010,
Please check FACTS AND DATA SECTION for this data.

Note: EB1,EB4,EB5 does not require PERM Labor.
08-11-2011, 06:52 AM
MeraNoAayega

I think the next quarterly inventory report (in oct-nov,11) from uscis should give us a good idea...
08-11-2011, 08:01 AM
nnnnnn123

Hi Q,

I have replied back your message in private inbox..

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Pls check your private inbox.
08-11-2011, 08:18 AM
10102007

All,

Is there a public liaison at the office (DoS or USCIS - wherever all this is done)? If yes, a small group with a few of us can go meet and have a talk. It may not do much. Bit these small ripples can become big waves. Atleast for the future set of applicants, things may change.

If not, as someoneone had pointed out a few pages before, we could file a FoIA request asking for the breakdown of numbers.
08-11-2011, 08:30 AM
tikkahyd

Congrats Q !!!
Can you explain the procedure to write to a senator about your case ?
I am current now and am taking an InfoPass next week to en-quire about my case status.
But wanted to get ready in case InfoPass yields nothing new.

Thanks !!
08-11-2011, 08:36 AM
familyguy

Guys, did any one see this...
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AA53

It looks like this is the final stage... a lot of people will benefit, if this becomes effective

Title: Nonimmigrant Classes; Spouses and Children of Lawful Permanent Residents; V Classification
Abstract: Section 1102 of the LIFE Act of 2000 amends the Immigration and Nationality Act to create a new nonimmigrant classification V for the spouses and children of lawful permanent residents awaiting the availability of an immigrant visa number in the appropriate preference category in accordance with the State Department's monthly Visa Bulletin. Eligible spouses and children of lawful permanent residents residing abroad that obtain the V nonimmigrant visa from the Department of State may work and reside in the United States on the basis of the V classification until they can apply for adjustment of status to that of lawful permanent resident. Certain eligible spouses and children of lawful permanent residents already present in the United States may be granted V classification until they can apply to adjust status to that of lawful permanent resident.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

There is a good chance of EAD to H-4 dependents (AC21) the proposed rule getting implemented . Because it is just an admin fix ,not like immigration reform passing thro all corners of the congress.

They have to publish in the Federal Register and wait for any public opinion , objections etc and go on......

The new EAD ( combined) arrived via this route (NPRM).

This new rule {Allowing Certain H-4 Dependent Spouses to Apply for Employment Authorization } making is already started , and is in the proposed rule stage here.......

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&agencyCd=1600
08-11-2011, 08:50 AM
srimurthy

congrats Q.
A question to all. I got a copy of my I-140 and can see the A-XXXX number, but could not find it in the FLC Datacenter. Also I tracked the SRC number for I-140 at USCIS earlier when it was filed and it showed that it was approved. So what is the way to check the A-xxxx number is correct or not and also get the PD date. It has a date when the labor was filed listed but I am not sure if that should be considered the PD date?
Thanks for the answers.
08-11-2011, 08:53 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by familyguy

create a new nonimmigrant classification V for the spouses and children of lawful permanent residents awaiting the availability of an immigrant visa number

I dont think we fall under this category.
08-11-2011, 08:54 AM
nnnnnn123

if this happens ...it will be little bit of relief as only one of us need to go through this H1b extension tension in family...and finding jobs with an EAD is better than H1b

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

There is a good chance of EAD to H-4 dependents (AC21) , the proposed rule getting implemented . Because it is just an admin fix ,not like immigration reform passing thro all corners of the congress.

They have to publish in the Federal Register and wait for any public opinion , objections etc and go on......

The new EAD ( combined) arrived via this route (NPRM).

This new rule {Allowing Certain H-4 Dependent Spouses to Apply for Employment Authorization } making is already started , and is in the proposed rule stage here.......

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&agencyCd=1600

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AB92
08-11-2011, 08:56 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

There is a good chance of EAD to H-4 dependents (AC21) , the proposed rule getting implemented . Because it is just an admin fix ,not like immigration reform passing thro all corners of the congress.

They have to publish in the Federal Register and wait for any public opinion , objections etc and go on......

The new EAD ( combined) arrived via this route (NPRM).

This new rule {Allowing Certain H-4 Dependent Spouses to Apply for Employment Authorization } making is already started , and is in the proposed rule stage here.......

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&agencyCd=1600

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AB92

Is it for people who have used AC21 to change employers? Which means they have filed for 485?
08-11-2011, 09:01 AM
familyguy

Yeah.. we don't fall under this category.. but I know few people who got stuck in India as their spouses are LPR's...

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

I dont think we fall under this category.
08-11-2011, 09:07 AM
nnnnnn123

oh ok.. i am extending my H1b beyond 5 years for 3 year extension using my approved 140. will my spouse get EAD?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

NO , It is for the people who have to use AC21 law to extend their H1b beyond 6 years ( i.e, spouses are eligible for EAD if the H1b holder has Labor or I140 cleared)
08-11-2011, 09:09 AM
doctorp

here is the correct link, it seems like it is in initial stages
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AB92
08-11-2011, 09:10 AM
skpanda

Not so soon..It will take some time... if at all this happens.

This is still in 'Proposed Rule Stage'
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AB92

The NPRM (Notice of Proposed Rule Making) is set for March 2012. Not necessarily that this time line will be met. It may get postponed as well. Worst Case, White house may not allow DHS/USCIS to go further on this rule (especially in this current economic situation and unemployment rate).

Assuming White House gives a go ahead on this rule by March 2012, there will be a comment period (public). After that there is no defined process/timeline (atleast as of now) for this to reach the Final Rule Stage. It may take its own sweet time (months/years).

Therefore....

Yes... this is a good initiative but I would be cautiously optimistic about this. I would not rely on this to make any decisions. This may take atleast 1 year to go thru (if at all it goes thru). Sorry if my statements hurt somebody... but just stated some observations.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nnnnnn123

if this happens ...it will be little bit of relief as only one of us need to go through this H1b extension tension in family...and finding jobs with an EAD is better than H1b
08-11-2011, 09:18 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by familyguy

Guys, did any one see this...
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AA53

It looks like this is the final stage... a lot of people will benefit, if this becomes effective

Title: Nonimmigrant Classes; Spouses and Children of Lawful Permanent Residents; V Classification
Abstract: Section 1102 of the LIFE Act of 2000 amends the Immigration and Nationality Act to create a new nonimmigrant classification V for the spouses and children of lawful permanent residents awaiting the availability of an immigrant visa number in the appropriate preference category in accordance with the State Department's monthly Visa Bulletin. Eligible spouses and children of lawful permanent residents residing abroad that obtain the V nonimmigrant visa from the Department of State may work and reside in the United States on the basis of the V classification until they can apply for adjustment of status to that of lawful permanent resident. Certain eligible spouses and children of lawful permanent residents already present in the United States may be granted V classification until they can apply to adjust status to that of lawful permanent resident.

familyguy,

From what I can tell, this only applies to people that have an approved I-130 under F2A (even then it was highly restrictive because the I-130 had to be filed before Dec 31, 2000), so is inapplicable to EB cases.

The original rule was proposed in 2001 http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2001...151.pdf#page=1 In it is seems to say it is only applicable to F2A in several places, most notably in the eligibility section.

Quote:

Who Is Eligible for V Nonimmigrant Status?

To be eligible for V nonimmigrant status, the alien must be the beneficiary of an immigrant visa petition, Form I–130, Petition for Alien Relative, that was filed by the LPR on or before December 21, 2000, under the F2A preference category of section 203(a)(2)(A) of the Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(a)(2)(A)). The child of a petitioned-for spouse or child beneficiary is also eligible for such status if he or she is accompanying or following to join such an alien.

The alien is eligible for V status if the Form I–130 immigrant visa petition has been pending for 3 years or more. In addition, the alien is eligible for V status after the visa petition has been approved and 3 years have passed since the date of filing, in either of the following circumstances:

(1) An immigrant visa number is not yet available to the beneficiary; or
(2) If an immigrant visa number is available to the beneficiary, his or her application for an immigrant visa abroad or application for adjustment of status under section 245 of the Act (8 U.S.C. 1255) is still pending.

An eligible spouse of an LPR will be classified as V–1. An eligible child of an LPR will be classified as V–2. The child of either, if eligible to accompany or follow to join the principal alien under section 203(d) of the Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(d)), will be classified as V–3.

An alien eligible for V nonimmigrant status may apply for a V nonimmigrant visa at a consular office abroad or, if the alien is already in the United States, he or she may apply to the Service for classification as a V nonimmigrant. An alien in V nonimmigrant status in the United States may obtain employment authorization.

Section 203(a) is FB and (2)(A) refers to F2A.

It's a bit of a tortuous read, but I think I have interpreted it correctly.

It would provide needed relief, given the level of retrogression, if it was more widely available.
08-11-2011, 09:20 AM
skpanda

Spec...please see post #6488 for the right link for the proposed rule for H4s.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

familyguy,

From what I can tell, this only applies to people that have an approved I-130 under F2A (even then it was highly restrictive because the I-130 had to be filed before Dec 31, 2000), so is inapplicable to EB cases.

The original rule was proposed in 2001 http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2001...151.pdf#page=1 In it is seems to say it is only applicable to F2A in several places, most notably in the eligibility section.

Section 203(a) is FB and (2)(A) refers to F2A.

It's a bit of a tortuous read, but I think I have interpreted it correctly.

It would provide needed relief, given the level of retrogression, if it was more widely available.

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