worst case October 2012, you will probably the first one to get once the fwd movement resumes in case u don't get it before retrogressionQuote:
Originally Posted by PDNOV2007
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worst case October 2012, you will probably the first one to get once the fwd movement resumes in case u don't get it before retrogressionQuote:
Originally Posted by PDNOV2007
Thank you very much for your responseQuote:
Originally Posted by bieber
PDNOV2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by PDNOV2007
I agree with bieber, if you don't get it before retrogression kicks in (and DOS might have stopped issuing visas already) then, realistically, it will become Current again in October 2012.
If EB1 do eventually provide some visas, then there is a chance in Q4 of this FY, but don't count on that happening.
speaking of 2013, does anyone have any thoughts on SOFAD numbers for next year ? are we looking at 30-35k or is it going to be in the 20-25k range like this year?
I don’t know the process USCIS uses to request visa numbers. (as in in chunks of hundreds per quarter or so and how many days advance etc) but there was surely steady stream of approvals (on trackitt ) till last week. There is only one approval this week(yesterday) and number of approvals are may be thinning down. Would be interesting to see how things go once April starts before determining if DOS has stopped giving visas to EB2IC for remainder of FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I agree we will know better when April actually starts, but there have been a few reports about no visas from March 23 onwards. I also base my speculation on what CO / USCIS actually said on March 23.
That tends to suggest that there are no visas (or not many) to issue in April.Quote:
USCIS has informed Mr. Oppenheim that they will continue to “preadjudicate” adjustment applications received through April. The “preadjudicated” cases will be held by the State Department in the “pending” demand file.
Let's see.
Thanks for the heads up. Not very surprised though, considering that retrogression was already sort of announced.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc4a_k
There was another earlier report as well, but take it with the pinch of salt required for anything unconfirmed. It seems a little drastic to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc4a_k
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ering/page/271
Quote:
Posted by srijaggu
HI Guys,
Its bad News...I have follow up my case with senator office I got this response from them...
The visas have regressed since the issuance of the March and April visa bulletins for the EB2 preference. The number use in the Employment Second preference category increased dramatically during February, and has continued to do so during March. Current indications are that this pattern would continue if no action were taken. Therefore, effective Friday, March 23, 2012 it has been necessary to retrogress the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007. This action is being taken in an effort to ensure the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India who have not yet reached their annual limit. Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under their FY-2013 annual numerical limitation.
We have to wait for Oct 1st 2012..Hope for the best guys... :-)
I'm confused with the post in Trackitt.
Does it mean all EB2I visas were approved in first 2 quarters itself?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There might be retrogression but this talk of no more GCs for EB2I/C does not make any sense even if CO states so. My guess is there might be a pause or significant slow down till July and then once CO get a better handle of demand data he might push the dates to early 2008 and clear all approvable 2007 cases. I strongly believe this is wats gonna happen. There are simply not enough EB2 ROW cases to use all the EB2 numbers available in the last 2 quarters.
Can an Employer apply another labor and 140 for different location while first 485 is pending to facilitate the move from one location to another ? Will the first be affected ?
With information from various threads, I assume Retrogression is in place effective Mar 23 2012. Currently we do not have data to start calculations.
We need 485 pending inventory to see how many are still pending. How much Spill over we can expect from EB2 ROW. From CO statement we can not expect much spill over from EB1. If EB1 is going to use 100% of VISAs allocated to that category, it will very well use any spill over comes from EB4 & 5. Only hope left is what we get from EB2 ROW.
From the history EB2 ROW spill over is around 10000 to 15000, if that is true, we already used that much in this year. There is absolutely nothing left for Spill over to EB2 I & C for this year.
This is my opinion. Gurus feel free to provide your thoughts on this.
The whole "no more visas available" ... is that for the year OR for Q2 ? I imagine its for the year but considering is Q-end as well, it begs the question.
Spec, Teddy, Q and other Gurus,
I may be wrong, but didn't DOS set "U"for Eb2I in the past when visas were unavailable for the year. So, i am wondering why would they set it at 15th Aug 2007 instead of U for the rest of the year? Just curious. Thanks.
I think AUG 2007 is a temp retrogression. After the 3rd & 4th quarter visa numbers the cutoff date will end up in 1st quarter 2008 as Spec, Q and all other experts predicted.Quote:
Originally Posted by GCKnowHow
Mavrick, are you or were you in South Florida before?:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
True and maybe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
No one (including the DOS) knows how many visas have been issued in reality. The prevailing thought is that 54% of annual is used up. But since SOFAD is going to be much lower than initially predicted that % could be significantly higher. The other issue is that a lot of 2008s have gotten visas that probably should have gone to 2007s. I don't think we can categorically say it'll be Q1 2008 but it will most likely end up there.
PDNOV - you should get it by Sep 2012 with 80% of chance. 90% chance of before Mar 2013. 100% chance of before Sep 2013. (My gut feel of course :) )
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDNOV2007
gc4 - thanks for this. Very valuable. I think what the rep was saying there is that EB2IC have used up visas more than their full year quota. It doesn't mean that the entire visas are used up. They will continue to get any spillover and the dates will move beyond Aug 2007 with 100% certainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc4a_k
My guess is that it means they expect EB2IC to receive at least "X" spillover everymonth where "X" = sumof all pending EB2IC prior to 15th Aug 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by rk1978
Agree. The dates will settle around Feb 2008 +- 2 months. I would of course be glad if it turns out April + - 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
54% of annual quota for EB visas for all the categories - what that has to do with SOFAD? It's across EB isn't it? Am I missing something?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Does any one has an update on HR 3012.What would be PD when it becomes a law.
due to slow down in approvals the demand data should show increased demand for next bulletin
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
looks to me 54% Visas might have been consumed. so the senator might got response as visa numbers not available at this point of time[ technically correct statement]
last 2 years annual quota used by Sept 2nd or 3rd week. now they are using Q Spillover uscis used this Q quota by 23rd.
How ever if we don't see approvals after April 1st then we can interpret no more visa numbers for EB2 India and china till August 2012.
Last 2 Q's USCIS approved pre adjudicated cases filed in 2007{ All of these belong to EB2 india & china] and Stright Fwd cases filed recently [ due to this EB2 India & china with PD in 2008 got benefit]. During this time normal 485 processing time frame increased to 6-9 months. So ROW backlog got increased.
And we have 46% of visas for 2nd Half. which means 7K less numbers for EB1 & EB2 together. and EB1 & EB2 ROW usage will surge. these factors not good for spillover.
we may get visa numbers in Sept'2012 if any spill over available. by this time USCIS has enough pre-adjudicated cases and USCIS will co-ordinate with DOS movement date based on spill over available in Sept.
Aashay - you are right about demand data. Every one is eagarly waiting for some sensible numbers in demand data.Quote:
Originally Posted by akshaya8
But my question to Vizcard was different. Anyway, after reading his post again, I am thinking that probably he meant - ' even if 54% of total visas have been used , that does not necessarily mean only 54% of SOFAD has been used. It could be migh higher. Per one of Spec's post it could be close to 100%'
I have searched the interwebs but couldn't find an answer so I am hoping that the gurus will help me in making an intelligent decision.
What would I have to do if I were to receive EAD but want to switch jobs between the receipt of EAD and completion of 180 days? I looked at various websites but the answer that I received were not helpful.
Restart GC process with the new company and interfile I-140 ( newly approved ) with the existing I485.Quote:
Originally Posted by bookworm
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Yes, I'm expecting to see a modest increase in the Demand Data as well. Although the Inventory will be useful, I fear it will not include a proper count of February/March filers.
I think CO is now playing a reverse game with EB1 demand.
Previously, by making an assumption the demand would be low, he was able to accelerate COD movement and give a lot of QSP to EB2-IC.
I think he has been surprised by USCIS ability to quickly adjudicate the new cases and EB2-IC approvals have reached a dangerous level for him, considering there are 6 months left in the FY.
By now saying that EB1 will use the full allocation, he can slam the door shut for at least Q3 and maybe part of Q4.
I think, ultimately, there will still be a modest number of spare visas available from EB1. EB2-ROW usage at present appears no lower than last year and there are 6 months worth of Porting cases to potentially add, so I am not sure how much further the dates will actually progress. I would still expect some visas from EB5, but not as many as last year.
Personally, I am not hopeful for approvals to begin again in any large numbers when Q3 begins, although I could be wrong.
Wow Spec. I had a similar thought that CO is playing a game. He was throwing two entirely different stories within a short span of 3 months and I wonder how could a man in that position give out this type of inconsistent messages !
I think this game is not to shut down individuals who are storming them with SRs/ congressman, senator enquiries but to shut the AILA itself from nagging questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
More and more we think about events over past few months, more and more we realize how well planned ( and executed) it was. Can't complain much though as it has done good for many people in terms giving chance to file.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Let's hope that we get some sensible numbers in coming reports. Agree with you Spec, inventory released in Jul/Aug(?) will most probably will have numbers close to reality.
The % usage till now, can it be more than 54%? since the cap is 27% for each quarter I was thinking it cannot exceed 54% at the end of second quarter. Just my thoughts.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Majority of us received 1 year EAD/AP. I dont think all of the feb and March filers get approved before EAD/AP expiry.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I saw some Feb filers' approval yesterday while entering random RNs before and after of my RN. I assume the applicants must be RoW ers . Interestingly proven that uscis has the ability to approve AoS within 45 days of receipt.
I found many 485 applications got rejected after wrong filing fees, many EAD applications got RFE. Fortunately my Ip didn't get blocked after hundreds of hits :)
You will have to submit renewal application again. The most important thing to keep in mind is that if your EAD renewal application is pending you cannot keep working on it if it expires before that. There is not 240 days law like we have for H1b extension pending. You cannot work on it after its expiration even if renewal application is in process. These days EAD renewal is taking 4 months; so file before 4 months of its expiration. I already marked my calendar - 1st Nov start EAD renewal process!
BTW, filing fees have been waived by USCIS for EAD renewal (at least in my case!!). You can file it directly otherwise just pay a legal fees to an attorney and they will file it for you.
Also if you are current when EAD/AP is approved, you will get it for 1 year only otherwise 2 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Never been to South Florida :)Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
Friends following are my thoughts about the current situation.
- Retrogression happening was a foregone conclusion however what is more important is the resting point by the end of Sep 2012.
- By law only 54% numbers can be used in Q1 and Q2 so we still have the remaining 46%.
- Next quarter another 27% are available so hopefully the approvals will happen again (01-APR) for EB2 I/C however in a more measured way especially from 01-May when retrogression will kick in. It will be really interesting to see the pace and the PD’s of the cases being approved in April this will be a key parameter in setting the retrogression point. As of now there are Oct filers still waiting without any kind of RFE (Some cases have been notified of additional review) & still a significant number of Nov & Dec Filers. I believe that the May bulletin retrogression point will not be as drastic as 15th Aug 2007.
- There is another scenario wherein the 27% limit was actually exceeded because at the field level any case can be approved because the corresponding dates are current assuming no circuit breakers are in place if, in this case we should see very few EB2 I/C approvals in April and probably for the rest of the year as well.
- The estimations from agencies have really revolved around extremes unfortunates as in demand being reported as too low and then all of a sudden it becomes too high, probably they have discovered the glitch in the Jan inventory.
- EB2 ROW holds the key to our fortunes since Eb1 usage has been reported closer to the annual cap itself.
100% agreement with Spotsfan33. The action might only to give some breathing space to USCIS as the facts and figures would not change overnight. All who applied might get cleared before this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Teddy thanks a lot for your views, in times when the news is bad I always look forward to yours and Q's opinions and you guys always bring the much needed clarity to the gloomy scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Sportsfan, Complaints from attorneys are mounting the USCIS with respect to the Eb1 rejections/Kazarian memo/ request for a change of policy, so this could be one of the reasons too.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Here are my 2 cents. I want to paint the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. Everyone is free to comment
Worst case Scenario:
USICS and DOL has developed an inventory and from now on stop all QSP and do what they have been doing after the 2007 debacle i.e. wait for quarter 4 to start the spillover. To top it, if they have exhausted the visa for 2012 then the next movement will happen in July 2013 visa bulletin. 16 months of wait from on guys.
Best Case Scenario:
Keep quite till Q4 of 2012, pre-adjudicate and start moving dates in Q4 of 2012. Do QSP in 2013.
Either ways I know I am not getting GC before July-August. I want it just as badly but I guess it is best to brace myself as I had done before. I lost the calm briefly thinking I will get it by april-may end but reality has to set it. The sooner I realize it better for me.
TSC |-| PD - 02/26/08 |-| MD - 01/04/12 |-| RD - 01/06/12 |-| FPND - 01/23/12 |-| FP - 02/14/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 02/016/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 02/22/12 |-| 485 Approval notice - TBD|-| GC RD - TBD|
PDMarch and all,
Moved the "Job Loss" discussion to a dedicated thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...p?753-Job-Loss
Will make that thread stick so that in future if somebody is in such unfortunate situation - can get some knowledge there.
p.s. - PDMAR - your tiger reminded me of "Shiv Sena" in maharashtra. They used to run these ambulance services under the name "Shiv Seva" and these ambulances would have the picture of such tiger heads!!
Not sure if this has been posted here previously but Ron Gotcher has something interesting to say about CP's in India: http://www.immigration-information.c...entry.php?b=49