Quiet obvious, he is going to waste the numbers(as usual)Quote:
Originally Posted by eaglenow
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Quiet obvious, he is going to waste the numbers(as usual)Quote:
Originally Posted by eaglenow
IMO, CO's forecast about wasting numbers, I feel it is a translation error (from Chinese to English) or transcribing error. Everything till that point, he was basically saying USCIS is on track to use up all the numbers.
USCIS has not waster EB numbers for a really long time. We can argue that he has been unfair to EB3-I a couple of times where EB3-C benefited instead. He also seemed unfair with EB2-I last year where EB2-C got 600 GCs more than EB2-I. But then again, he gave EB1-I more than its share.
Since EB2-I and EB3-I are stuck for such a long time, we feel that he needs to sympathize with us a little - which he does not seem to.
I think we what he means is there will no longer be any horizontal numbers available for EB2I. I still do expect a few months movement on EB2I as he knows the demand. There could be visa wastage..but he still can move dates in the last 2 bulletins... its not over till its over..
We all knew EB2-I doesn't deserve any sympathy as they sued USCIS/DoS back in 2015. Why they are not moving EB3-I is the real question here. Is EB3-I being punished for EB2-I's actions?Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?Quote:
Originally Posted by newsletter1978
Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29
This seems the most likely explanation given the wording.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMaverick
I don't think check in with CO is available for general public on AILA.org.Quote:
Originally Posted by mahendra
When did he say this?? It looks like a random article.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
AILA website shows the following article viewable only to their members.Quote:
Originally Posted by mahendra
Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim
5/29/2020
The AILA DOS Liaison Committee provides monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401
Note: The above number is different; The earlier article number points to the rejection of I-485 from lockbox due to expired forms (incorrectly). If the above is a true copy, in a day or two some law firms will be publishing this in their website.
mitbbs has typically been a reliable source of information - there are of course issues in translation but that is to be expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
I would be very suspicious unless I hear CO directly quoted on wasting visas for EB. I choose not to freak out until then :)Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--
Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.
So, is there any update on EB2-I?Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Thanks! So the point about visa wastage is probably a translation error indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.
EB-3 has the best chance of reaching their annual limits by September 30 - As per CO.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
There will be movement for EB3 but not as drastic as I would I have hoped.
What about EB2?Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
My guess, EB2-I will clear Sep-09 by end of this fiscal year.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
You meant to say EB3 in total to reach its limit by September 30?Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Yes. You are rightQuote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
I understand that CO will process that EB3 quota will be used until September 30, which mean that limit may be reached. And the next Fiscal year Oct 2020 will be current again?Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Please could you throw some wide ballpark estimates, just your opinion..
Mean that after reach and will be current in next fiscal year? CO want EB3 must be reached at the end sept 2020?
NJMavarick , if you mean, EB3 without spill over to EB3-I is likely to reach its annual limit by Sept 30, that likely means its bad news for EB3-I. That would mean no horizontal spillover for EB3-I. Am i interpreting your comment correctly ?Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Yes. There seems to be enough demand in EB3 category so there will be no horizontal spillover. That is the reason this category is not current. There will still be movement just not as drastic as we would have hoped for.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
How much could be not so drastic movement? by few days/weeks/months?Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Quote:
Originally Posted by mar2010er
Here is my ballpark in July Bulletin EB2I can move up to June 21 or July 1st and EB3 can move up to June 1st or can catch up with EB2.
Heather Sivaraman's website had published the Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim posted to AILA on May 29, 2020. The wording is more condensed. I wonder whether they omitted the descriptive paragraph that we have been discussing above.
It clearly states that as there is a lot of pre-adjudicated demand in EB3, all visas will be used. Nothing is mentioned for EB2. I think as EB2-ROW is current, good likelihood of some horizontal spillover to EB2I/C. However, I am sure CO is waiting to see more data before spilling the beans. So we have to wait and watch EB2I till his next check-in. Descriptions about PDs have been deleted below.
Employment-based Preference Categories:
EB-1:
Due to the lack of EB-1 demand and the likelihood of otherwise unused numbers becoming available from the EB-5 category, Oppenheim predicts that EB-1 (ROW in context) will remain current through the end of the fiscal year. In June, the final action date for EB-1 China advanced one month from July 15, 2017, to August 15, 2017. Also, EB-1 India jumped forward ten months from August 1, 2015, to June 8, 2016.
EB-2:
EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines, and Vietnam), remains current as well in June. Additionally, EB-2 China advanced one month from October 1, 2015, and EB-2 India advanced ten days from June 2, 2009 to June 12, 2009.
EB-3:
Like EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide. This makes it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year.
EB-4:
EB-4 Worldwide (including China, India, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current while EB-4 El Salvador Guatemala and Honduras advanced four months from August 15, 2016, to December 15, 2016. The advancement of EB-4 Mexico slowed down in June, and advanced from May 1, 2018 to June 8, 2018. According to Oppenheim, it is possible that these dates will hold into July 2020.
EB-5:
Charlie expects EB-5 India to become current by August 2020. If EB-5 India does become current by August 2020, it is possible that otherwise unused numbers might go to EB-5 Vietnam allowing that category to advance more rapidly.
Source
A question for EB3 ROw, if all visas reached limit, next fiscal year will allocate new quota and become current in Oct 2020?
Simply put, waiving off interviews for EB3 ROW created enough demand so EB3-I doesn't get any horizontal spillover. EB-3 India retrogression on the cards when the consulates reopen?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman;64500
[B
Yes. Historically, Mr. CO had moved EB3-ROW FA to be current for the first few months of visa allocation year before retrogressing the dates later in the year. Please note that year 2020 allocations begin in Oct of 2019.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackus
Year 2020 – Oct to Feb
Year 2019 – Oct to Jul
Year 2018 – Oct to Aug
So you can assume that he will make EB3-ROW current in October 2020 based on past trend.
< >
That is interesting! I never observed that. This can bode well for the potential spill over as the total for EB2I+EB3I could be a large number if EB3-ROW is current. EB3 Philippines typically is also backlogged. Still, EB3I is destined to get a decent allocation come next fiscal.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Murthy Law Firm published June 2020 Visa Bulletin Check-In
https://www.murthy.com/2020/06/05/ju...etin-check-in/
It has no EB3 details what we discussed above. In fact, FY20 limits may not be reached due to limited USCIS capacity and remaining visa numbers will be lost.
Why would the SO not happen? Can the visa numbers not be assigned to adjudicated applications where it's just some formal paperwork transactions pending? Well, surprising nobody in the check-in meeting asks such basic questions to CO!! Maybe they don't want to! Is it even a meeting btw or some kind of broadcast? So here is the new excuse when we think we have seen it all... resource crunch, capacity limitation!! Throwing all reasonable predictions off track!
This has happened many a times over the years. Things seem logical and all hopes go up to be quashed by one reason or another. You are very correct in concluding that the checkin is more like a broadcast [one-way] - It sure does look so.Quote:
Originally Posted by redtogreen
Like Q and many others keep saying - Better to forget and keep moving on with the life [hard but better to get used to....].
What is the procedure to attend this meeting on behalf of backlogged applicants?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun
Hi,
I am maintaining my EB3 GC EAD and H1 both with same employer , my PD is 07/09/09. Now Prime vendor(Typical Desi services company) to Client is asking me to convert to FT or loose the contract in this Covid-19 situation. Though I can transfers my EAD and H1 safely, I am thinking if it is worth to risk and change the employer. My GC Interview got cancelled due to Pandemic in April.
How long do you think it may take for my date to be current?
You did not provide any information about whether you filed I485, 180 days before or not. That makes you eligible for AC21 job portability provisions. I assume that you have crossed the 180-day AC21 clock.Quote:
Originally Posted by IamGSN
You are 100 days from being current in EB3I. You already have an EAD, so I would assume that you have a valid medical till (Oct or Nov of 2020). Whatever happens, I think you should definitely be current in Oct 2020 or 4 months from now. From that time, GC approval takes few days to a few months. Let’s say 2 months. So, you should have GC in hand by Dec 2020. People here can discuss predictions or other anticipated PD movement. However, in the worst case will you be able to hold on till Dec 2020?
Now in the best-case scenario, you may be current in the next 1 to 3 bulletins. Any backlogged person waiting for 10+ years and thinking that they are very close to the finish line will find it difficult to make a decision. It’s a tough situation to be in. Kindly prepare yourself assuming that you will not be getting GC immediately. That will save you from disappointment.
No one including Mr. CO can pre-announce the PD movement till it happens. A call from Trump admin can make anything happen in a Visa bulletin. Now others in the forum might be able to provide better estimates of PD movement. If you have opened a separate thread for this topic, may be others will chime in with their own view.
If you decide to take FT position, please make sure that the new company will fully support you in H1B, AC21, job classification, I485J and so on. Hope this helps. Good Luck.
Also be aware of I485 interview waiver. By guesstimate only about 1 in 6 or 7 got COVID interview waivers. As USCIS offices are now open, the interview waiver might decrease, you will be asked to come in for an interview. So factor this also in your decision.