EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

But data points different that what if holds true NVC is doing. NVC is sending out email for fee as late as Sep 2008 ( as per some one recent post ) If that is true then we are looking EB2 will be C next fall. YES I am not kidding it will be Current.

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Dude... please stop giving false hopes... no one knows what will happen...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

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Spillover consumption starts from April 15th 2007 onwards right for the next FY (2012), since the last cutoff for 2011 is april 15th 2007?

We might as well name it "Big Time Mess".

I was seriously hoping to file for EAD/AP (PD SEP 2007) so that I dont have to continue on lousy H1 extensions. I was in a very bad mood/depression yesterday until I went home and hugged my kids. At that time I realized that there's more to life than just chasing after these VB bulletins month after month. I need to concentrate on and cherish what I have right now.So now onto filing for H1 extension.

Nishant's and my case are so much similar. Even I wanted to get this GC stuff over with so that I am no longer bound to H1, can take up projects which really interest me, visit India and peacefully come back whenever I want, sponsor my parents to come to the US and stay with me so that they dont have to stay alone back in India.

At least I find solace in the fact that my PD may be current in the next 6 months or so and GC processing may be faster beacuse of the backlog clearance. I truly feel for ppl who have PDs in 2008 and later. It seems without any congressional action this problem is never going to end.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by waiting

Till y'day BTM meant = Big Temporary Movement
Now it means "Blocked Tangled Movement"

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by neospeed

Spillover consumption starts from April 15th 2007 onwards right for the next FY (2012), since the last cutoff for 2011 is april 15th 2007?

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neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards. The Jan-Mar figures are purely theoretical and of no practical use.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

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Wont the 8k number go down after the approvals in September 2011?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

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Spec,
This is little bit misleading because, however you look there will not be 12K EB2CI cases pending(including porting) before 15APR2007.

Similar to FY2011 there will be 1k-2k EB2CI cases pending before 15APR2007 by 10-1-2011.

At least for newbies, it would be easy to understand if you start with April 2007

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards. The Jan-Mar figures are purely theoretical and of no practical use.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gchopeful123

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

Wont the 8k number go down after the approvals in September 2011?

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I don't think so, unless they move EB2CI dates in October.

Look at the June EB-485 inventory update for EB2CI cases pending for 15APR2007 to AUG2007.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

However on a second thought I do wonder how come when August has just started they know that EB1 and EB2ROW are going to pick up. It does suggest some sort of policy decision and arrangement across agencies.

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It seems quite straight forward to me, its just they waited for the last. In the last 2 months, they checked how much documentary qualified EB1 and EB2 ROW (by this time EB1 with RFE must have responded) they can reduce before closing the year. If none were there, they would have given to EB2IC. Yes, this must have been their strategy, that before closing the year, have one last look at EB1 and EB2ROW and approve what you can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

About EB3-I movement.

Many people were wondering how so much EB3 I movement. Teddy put a very interesting thought in another forum. Since these dates are so old, USCIS might be issuing EVL RFEs, and they don't get response or don't get proper response to them, and hence they want to move to a larger cushion date, because of this pattern.

One has to think, these dates for EB3 I are in 2002, it is 9 years back. Some folks may have just gone back for good. Or gone to other countries. Or may have found it really difficult to maintain that job profile / job area for such unreasonable period of time.

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Nishant I just read another interesting explanation for EB3 movement on IV from user named Caliber.

Originally Posted by Caliber
This may not be spill over. Two of my friends with PD April 2002 got their GC's about 6 years back, but they were not married at the time of their 485 filing and their wife's came on H1 and applied 485 on their own during June/July fiasco. Now these guys became Citizens and sponsored their wife's on immediate family visa. One more friend will be citizen in next six months and his wife will not need her EB based 485 any more.

If I know 3 guys, there could be few others who are becoming citizens and their spouses no more required to be in EB queue.

Due to this, 2002/2003 first qrtr should at least move faster as those who got GC's in June/July 2007 will become Citizens in 2012 and their spouses who applied 485's during that time will no more be in EB queue.

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
This is little bit misleading because, however you look there will not be 12K EB2CI cases pending(including porting) before 15APR2007.

Similar to FY2011 there will be 1k-2k EB2CI cases pending before 15APR2007 by 10-1-2011.

At least for newbies, it would be easy to understand if you start with April 2007

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

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Spec,

may be the 8000 needed to be split in to 4 parts and assign to Apr/May, May/June, June/July. July/Aug. how about the following, also 1000 of porting to each month just to spread it

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 62
February 2007 -------------- 157
March 2007 ----------------- 281
April 2007 ----------------- 1,041
May 2007 ------------------- 3,625
June 2007 ------------------ 7,051
July 2007 ------------------ 10,054
August 2007 ---------------- 13,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Thanks Q!

But I have a basic question, since the USCIS/DOS will be bound by quarterly limits starting financial year 1OCT2011, how is it going to be possible for them to move PD dates until Jan 2008? It would have made sense to do it in the SEP VB bulletin, staring Oct I think their hands are tied by the law. Any comments/suggestions?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

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Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Thanks Q!

But I have a basic question, since the USCIS/DOS will be bound by quarterly limits starting financial year 1OCT2011, how is it going to be possible for them to move PD dates until Jan 2008? It would have made sense to do it in the SEP VB bulletin, staring Oct I think their hands are tied by the law. Any comments/suggestions?

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not bad we still have 73 people sucking info...

Q, on other note...its been 10 days and you havent given us any good news abt ur GC... whats up??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

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Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

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Yes this is a great idea, we can also collect some funds to make this happen.

soggadu, i hope the days come when you once again revert back to your old profile picture!
I still don't have good news. Crossing fingers.

p.s. - I noticed you have now formally also become a Guru!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

not bad we still have 73 people sucking info...

Q, on other note...its been 10 days and you havent given us any good news abt ur GC... whats up??

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

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That is an interesting idea. Spec Teddy and others what do you guys think?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gchopeful123

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?

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We can divide earlier PWMBs into two now.. those before 15APR07 who did get a chance to file 485 but still are not documentarily qualified.. they are not included in 8000 but with time they will be qualified and increase the number..
second types of PWMBs are still PWMBs with PD after 15APR07.. they are also not included in 8000 and will be included only when PD moves forward..

depending upon how many first type of PWMBs are there and how many EB2 visa they approve, 8000 may go up or down (most likely will go up because there are already 7800+ qualified I485 pending between Apr and July07).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

soggadu, i hope the days come when you once again revert back to your old profile picture!
I still don't have good news. Crossing fingers.

p.s. - I noticed you have now formally also become a Guru!

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I know...though i didnt speak much... i was disappointed...but no problem... new day new hope... i wish u get ur cards soon... i guess u might have to open a SR or something after 2 weeks... it worked in my frnds group...

Good idea by gc_usa... count my yes on it...

I made a graph of GC movement for the last 4 years.. the disconnects are Unavailable numbers.. if someone wants I can post or send the raw data I used..


Attachment 87

Yes.. if i were you i would file for H1b Extension with as much required paper work as possible. I would do that even if ur date becomes current in next 1 or 2 months.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by memk26

It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?

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Q and other gurus,
Can someone quickly come up with a quick dirty most pessimistic SOFAD for 2012 adding expected spillovers from Family,EB1,EB2-ROW,EB5 etc? I just wanted to gauge what will be the worst case for 2012 ....treat it like as worse as Sehwag getting out first ball duck today morning(and I woke up at 3 am with alarm to watch him)!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by whereismygclost

Q and other gurus,
Can someone quickly come up with a quick dirty most pessimistic SOFAD for 2012 adding expected spillovers from Family,EB1,EB2-ROW,EB5 etc? I just wanted to gauge what will be the worst case for 2012 ....treat it like as worse as Sehwag getting out first ball duck today morning(and I woke up at 3 am with alarm to watch him)!

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last i heard 18K... Q had posted it some where in the back pages...

I think we will at least get 5k from each eb1,eb5,and eb2 row, which totals to 15k.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by neospeed

I think we will at least get 5k from each eb1,eb5,and eb2 row, which totals to 15k.

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With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

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I agree with this. Only option is to upgrade yourself to EB1 and give it a shot. At most you will loose $10k and you will know in 3-5 months time from start to finish.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

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I think they only added eb1c, the rest of the eb1 categories already have the option of PP. Any way if cis have an agenda of clearing the eb1 and eb2 row backlogs at the end of the last quarter which happened this year and last year, it doesn't make any difference having PP or not.

Hi Friends,

We can see that everyone with PD date after July 2007 are stuck there. Way the CO has been going, no idea when people with PD in 2008 and later will be able to file for I 485.What are the options for persons whose I 140 has been approved but havn't been able to file I 485 yet?
So I want to know if the following options are possible.
a) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and working on different tools and platform but similar role.
b) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and with different role as well.
c) Staying in same project but getting promoted.
d) Switching jobs to a new employer. Will I be able to capture my old PD if my employer withdraws my I 140?

Thanks,
Deb

Qblogfan - any further comments on the mittbs blogs on CO's insights? Or is it really just what was posted yesterday.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

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This is very useful & gives a peek in the box.

I think there is a typo: it should be Mar 08 instead of Mar07

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

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Thanks to Nishanth & Spec.

Spec,

Why is there still demand from Jan 2007 to April 2007. Shouldn't it be zero since the dates are current until 15April 07.
May be you can update your post # 3 with this data. Also, I agree on new thread for FY 2012.

Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bieber

Spec,

may be the 8000 needed to be split in to 4 parts and assign to Apr/May, May/June, June/July. July/Aug. how about the following, also 1000 of porting to each month just to spread it

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 62
February 2007 -------------- 157
March 2007 ----------------- 281
April 2007 ----------------- 1,041
May 2007 ------------------- 3,625
June 2007 ------------------ 7,051
July 2007 ------------------ 10,054
August 2007 ---------------- 13,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

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I don't understand why we should include demand for months before April 2007 (as it is current now).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imechanix

I don't understand why we should include demand for months before April 2007 (as it is current now).

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Those are the PERMs approved post Aug15th 2007 so they filed 485 in last month or will file very soon, those numbers are not part of existing inventory or demand data. (essentially PWMB)

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

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Nice! I like this better. I'll probably go in hibernation now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

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This looks better, thanks Spec.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

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Spec,

This looks better, you may want to replace Post#3 with this one.

Whoever is carrying out Predictions for next year may want to factor in most likely upcoming economic recession. It could very well be the case that EB1 and EB2ROW do not consume the same amount of visas as that of this fiscal year.

People are mad as hell on mitbbs. EB2C had a high hope and the last VB was a crash landing finally.

Many people's dreams have been destroyed. Sadly our strength is too small and we can't change anything.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Qblogfan - any further comments on the mittbs blogs on CO's insights? Or is it really just what was posted yesterday.

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