EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by idliman

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

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when you say before end of 2020, are you referring to fiscal or calendar 2020.

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Originally Posted by newsletter1978

when you say before end of 2020, are you referring to fiscal or calendar 2020.

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Unlike the experts here who crunch numbers and provide info, my optimism is based on back of napkin calculations only. There are a lot of uncertainties still in play. Will Trump's EO (CP) be extended? Will USCIS get a bailout and operate at normal capacity? Will the FB to EB spillover happen on Oct 2020? How low is ROW's demand before, during and after Covid? How much will be the spillover from EB2-ROW to India? Will EB-I get a higher spillover now that CP is stopped and while considering combined EB+CP against country limit, EB will get more from quota. If some of these line up, it is a no brainier for EB2I PDs crossing 2009. That was the basis of my optimism.
One thing that normal people tracking PDs will know is that the moment CP resumes and EO expires, EB3I dates will retrogress to compensate for all the CP cases. That definitely needs to be watched.

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Originally Posted by idliman

Unlike the experts here who crunch numbers and provide info, my optimism is based on back of napkin calculations only. There are a lot of uncertainties still in play. Will Trump's EO (CP) be extended? Will USCIS get a bailout and operate at normal capacity? Will the FB to EB spillover happen on Oct 2020? How low is ROW's demand before, during and after Covid? How much will be the spillover from EB2-ROW to India? Will EB-I get a higher spillover now that CP is stopped and while considering combined EB+CP against country limit, EB will get more from quota. If some of these line up, it is a no brainier for EB2I PDs crossing 2009. That was the basis of my optimism.
One thing that normal people tracking PDs will know is that the moment CP resumes and EO expires, EB3I dates will retrogress to compensate for all the CP cases. That definitely needs to be watched.

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In normal circumstances EB3I may stall or retrogress should the consulates reopen. But, we don't know the extent of demand and supply for EB3I. Since dates were at July 1,2009 last year itself, many may have approved already at consulates. Last two years EB3I received 2K+ more visas than allocated in spite of EB3-ROW retrogressing towards the end of the FY.

If EB3I is getting more visas like last year along with some FB spillover from last FY, EB3I most likely will advance a few more months in this FY. Then also, CP closures may yield some numbers from ROW/Philippines. I am not sure if all candidates are waived off interviews for EB ROW and other categories. EB2 to EB3 downporting will ease as EB2-I progresses. July 1,2009 for EB-3 India is not out of reach.

I agree that at the end of the FY, EB2 may finish ahead of EB3 but it won't last long.

Next bulletin will set the tone for both EB-2 and EB-3 for this FY.

If there is such movement, before next bulletin, we should see some medical RFEs at least.

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

I don't think anybody can say anything with any amount of certainty right now. Even if I say that 12/2010 will happen by end of Oct 2022 - will that change anything for you? If I were in your shoes, I will plan for the near worst case scenario - that 12/2010 will not be reached for 5-8 years or so even with recession/CP closure etc.

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Originally Posted by horizon1012

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by imdeng

That's wonderful news tendlya. Congratulations! It is great to see long timers getting through.

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Thanks imdeng. Hopefully there is a rapid date movement this year.

If CP closure continues until September, your date will be current for October 2020 bulletin.

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Originally Posted by horizon1012

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

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2 years would be the best case scenario for you.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

2 years would be the best case scenario for you.

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Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

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I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years :)
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

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I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

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AceMan glad to see you. It would be glad to hear from number gurus once in a while to keep up our spirits. I sense that the 50K+ unused CPs in 2020, brought you back. The conditions have been the most favorable this year.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

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As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

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I'm not sure CO is trying to stop the downporting. EB-3 filing dates reached Apr 1,2010 in FY 19 and CO still kept the filing dates Feb,2010 in FY20. The filing dates movement pushed a lot of people to downport than FADs, IMO.

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Originally Posted by EB22010Dec

I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years :)
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

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Add me to it! This forum is great to have a sane and respectful conversation unlike the trash talk that happens on Trackitt. I am pretty confident that we would see 2010 FAD for EB2 in the next fiscal. I am also expecting a reasonable 3-4 months FAD movement in next bulletin. This is looking at the pending inventory and the available visas in the last quarter..my 0.02 cents but yes anything is possible in the world of US immigration..Cheers

Quote:

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

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I think if the last year FB spill over of 4.5 is available to EB2I come July then the FAD dates should easily move to September / October 2009. One thing is for sure that a lot of FB visas would go unused and whether they are applied next year and available is anyone's guess. If they are then we are in for a ride....we will see

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

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I am waiting anxiously for the July bulletin and more so curious to see the EB3 dates. The check-in with CO update should be out any day now...lets see what is in there.

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

I am waiting anxiously for the July bulletin and more so curious to see the EB3 dates. The check-in with CO update should be out any day now...lets see what is in there.

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CO Check-in is a joke he does exactly opposite to what he states in Check-in.
"Eb1 I will move slowly"- it advances 10 months
"Eb3 Row used up all the numbers for 2020" - It advances 11 months
:-)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

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I agree, irrespective of the available visas he is advancing EB3I at the max 1 month per vBulletin

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Originally Posted by Auser123

CO Check-in is a joke he does exactly opposite to what he states in Check-in.
"Eb1 I will move slowly"- it advances 10 months
"Eb3 Row used up all the numbers for 2020" - It advances 11 months
:-)

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Well, no one expected EB3 CP cases or for that matter COVID to happen. That being said, I think he tries to convey what is coming in his best capacity.

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Well, no one expected EB3 CP cases or for that matter COVID to happen. That being said, I think he tries to convey what is coming in his best capacity.

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Yes, but that statement about Eb1 is after the bulletin was prepared(June bulletin)

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Originally Posted by idliman

AceMan glad to see you. It would be glad to hear from number gurus once in a while to keep up our spirits. I sense that the 50K+ unused CPs in 2020, brought you back. The conditions have been the most favorable this year.

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Yes, I love fiddling with numbers and throw out lot of well minded theories. However CO appears hell bent on proving me wrong over and over again 😀. And every year I come up with the excuse Philippines and South Korea has been allocated more than they should really get. The FB dates for Philippines is a joke for a long time, which happened to be the excuse to over allocate EB quota for them.

But it is what is. A 50K SO, if we get it, will really help a lot of us.

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

I am waiting anxiously for the July bulletin and more so curious to see the EB3 dates. The check-in with CO update should be out any day now...lets see what is in there.

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Will CO check-in anything while funding is awaited?

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Originally Posted by mahendra

Will CO check-in anything while funding is awaited?

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CO is an employee of DoS. I don't think USCIS (DHS) funding issue affects him in anyway.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#6430625c6a89

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Yes, I love fiddling with numbers and throw out lot of well minded theories. However CO appears hell bent on proving me wrong over and over again 😀. And every year I come up with the excuse Philippines and South Korea has been allocated more than they should really get. The FB dates for Philippines is a joke for a long time, which happened to be the excuse to over allocate EB quota for them.

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The statement about the effect of FB use isn't really true for Philippines (as it is for Korea).

Philippines does not get extra approvals in EB because of low approvals in FB.

EB3-P does get higher approvals than the prorated amount in EB would suggest, but that's because Philippines has few approvals in EB1-EB2 and EB4-EB5.

In FY2019, Philippines used 0.86% of the EB1 allocation, 3.34% of the EB2 allocation, 12.65% of the EB3 allocation, 2.17% of the EB4 allocation and 0.16% of the EB5 allocation.

Against the prorated EB limit, Philippines used 4.98% of the 7% EB limit.

Only once in the last 10 years has Philippines used more than the 7% limit in EB (and that was within the range of error - not CO's finest).

Philippines EB Total Approvals

FY --------- No. ---- %
FY2019 --- 7,074 --- 4.98%
FY2018 --- 8,985 --- 6.40%
FY2017 --- 8,824 --- 6.30%
FY2016 --- 8,917 --- 6.35%
FY2015 -- 10,363 --- 7.16%
FY2014 --- 8,172 --- 5.44%
FY2013 -- 10,537 --- 6.65%
FY2012 --- 9,504 --- 6.56%
FY2011 --- 7,628 --- 5.45%
FY2010 --- 6,786 --- 4.50%

Average -- 8,679 --- 5.98%

Nor is it really an overallocation. The interpretation of how the 7% limit is calculated (i.e. equals FB + EB) has been consistent for a very long time.

The practice of combining EB and FB for purposes of determining the 7% limit dates back to at least as far as FY2000 (the oldest data I could find) but probably has been in force since at least when the Immigration system was last revamped in 1990.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...%20app%20A.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...%20app%20B.pdf

The same also appears to be true of using more in some subcategories (e.g. EB3), when other subcategories have insufficient demand, as long as the total for the category (EB) is not exceeded.

In FB, FB3 & FB4 India have regularly benefited from this interpretation.

For example, India used 18.4% of the FB3 allocation in FY2019 and 11.5% of the FB4 allocation in FY2019, while using 6.2% of the total FB allocation because use in FB1 (1.2%), FB2A (1.8%) and FB2B (1.0%) was relatively low.

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

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Amen to this !! It’s always a pleasure to see Spec’s answers with all the data.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The statement about the effect of FB use isn't really true for Philippines (as it is for Korea).

Philippines does not get extra approvals in EB because of low approvals in FB.

EB3-P does get higher approvals than the prorated amount in EB would suggest, but that's because Philippines has few approvals in EB1-EB2 and EB4-EB5.

In FY2019, Philippines used 0.86% of the EB1 allocation, 3.34% of the EB2 allocation, 12.65% of the EB3 allocation, 2.17% of the EB4 allocation and 0.16% of the EB5 allocation.

Against the prorated EB limit, Philippines used 4.98% of the 7% EB limit.

Only once in the last 10 years has Philippines used more than the 7% limit in EB (and that was within the range of error - not CO's finest).

Philippines EB Total Approvals

FY --------- No. ---- %
FY2019 --- 7,074 --- 4.98%
FY2018 --- 8,985 --- 6.40%
FY2017 --- 8,824 --- 6.30%
FY2016 --- 8,917 --- 6.35%
FY2015 -- 10,363 --- 7.16%
FY2014 --- 8,172 --- 5.44%
FY2013 -- 10,537 --- 6.65%
FY2012 --- 9,504 --- 6.56%
FY2011 --- 7,628 --- 5.45%
FY2010 --- 6,786 --- 4.50%

Average -- 8,679 --- 5.98%

Nor is it really an overallocation. The interpretation of how the 7% limit is calculated (i.e. equals FB + EB) has been consistent for a very long time.

The practice of combining EB and FB for purposes of determining the 7% limit dates back to at least as far as FY2000 (the oldest data I could find) but probably has been in force since at least when the Immigration system was last revamped in 1990.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...%20app%20A.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...%20app%20B.pdf

The same also appears to be true of using more in some subcategories (e.g. EB3), when other subcategories have insufficient demand, as long as the total for the category (EB) is not exceeded.

In FB, FB3 & FB4 India have regularly benefited from this interpretation.

For example, India used 18.4% of the FB3 allocation in FY2019 and 11.5% of the FB4 allocation in FY2019, while using 6.2% of the total FB allocation because use in FB1 (1.2%), FB2A (1.8%) and FB2B (1.0%) was relatively low.

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Come on Spec, you are a party pooper :D:D:D:D. I have been running this "all in the well because of Philippines" story for a long time.

Thanks for correcting me on this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

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Great idea!

But I will donate only if she/he predicts that I will get my greencard this FY 😂 JK

Thank you for the very positive response to the post.

I was, actually, quite hesitant to post it.

After all, we all like our "conspiracy" theories.

I'm not that active these days, primarily due to the lack of data provided.

Under the current administration it seems to have become increasingly more difficult to access useful data (my own personal conspiracy theory).

Without that data, it's impossible to forecast what might happen.

I'm sure many people share my frustration at this state of affairs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

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Copy that! Great job Spec. Debunking myths with data!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thank you for the very positive response to the post.

I was, actually, quite hesitant to post it.

After all, we all like our "conspiracy" theories.

I'm not that active these days, primarily due to the lack of data provided.

Under the current administration it seems to have become increasingly more difficult to access useful data (my own personal conspiracy theory).

Without that data, it's impossible to forecast what might happen.

I'm sure many people share my frustration at this state of affairs.

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Spec, Is it possible to get inventory data with a FOIA request? Multiple FOIA requests, If not possible with one request.

Looks like USCIS is opening in parts...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/loc...243067511.html

Anyone has access to AILA Doc. No. 14071401, Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim dated 5/29/2020 ?

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Originally Posted by idliman

Anyone has access to AILA Doc. No. 20041738, Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim dated 5/29/2020 ?

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Translated by Google from a Chinese site http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Immi.../34048933.html

General Observations:

As noted last month, while Charlie is required to work from home and lacks
access to certain government databases, he is unable to provide projections
beyond what is included herein.

As might be expected, immigrant visa (IV) usage was lower than normal in
April 2020 due to the closure of US consulates and USCIS offices.
Notwithstanding these closures, Charlie was pleased to see that
employment-based number usage was respectable in April given the current
situation, and that there has already been decent sized number usage thus
far in May.

Movements in the final action dates and the redistribution of otherwise
unused visa numbers have traditionally been influenced by the demand for
visa numbers in the various categories relative to the annual visa limits.

During the COVID-19 global pandemic, the lack of government capacity to
process applications is proving to be a significant factor in how visa
numbers can be allocated in an effort to maximize fiscal year number usage
consistent with the INA.

Charlie must now take into account the agencies' capacity to process
applications, in addition to supply and demand, in determining final action
date movements.

Lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand, and the existence of a
significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 India makes it possible
for more rapid advancement for EB-1 India.

In contrast, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Charlie warned of high levels of
EB-2 Worldwide demand, which he expected would result in the imposition of a
final action date in that category in the summer.

Although that is no longer likely, the existence of significant worldwide
demand may make it far less likely that the pre-adjudicated demand in EB-2
India can be acted upon.

Where possible, Charlie is doing his best to work with pre-adjudicated
demand to facilitate number usage and is heartened by USCIS's efforts to
approve employment-based adjustment of status applications.

Nevertheless, he thinks it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will
be reached in FY2020. He noted that he will have a better sense of whether
the limit will be reached after he analyzes the June 2020 data.

Employment-based Preference Categories

EB-1 Worldwide which became current in May 2020 remains current in
June. Given the lack of EB-1 demand and the likelihood of otherwise unused
numbers becoming available from the EB-5 category, this category is expected
to remain current through the end of FY2020.

Thanks newsletter78. Good old mitbbs - it used to be a goldmine of information from EB-C point of view - glad to see that its still kicking!

This is insane if it means what I think it means:

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Nevertheless, he thinks it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.

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Does he mean that EB will not meet its annual visa issuance limit? Given that a ton of pre-adjudicated demand exists, there is no excuse for not meeting the limit.

If CO doesn’t think the EB limits will be reached, is he preparing to waste the visas? That would be atrocious given the huge pending preadjudicated cases for EBI. If processing is taking time, why not move the dates ahead for EBI?

This way they can request/assign the numbers from this fiscal years quota for the applications and still continue to process those applications into next fiscal year.

Also, Given the slow processing, it would be better to move the dates In the next bulletin. This will give 3 months processing time for those applications. If the numbers get used up earlier, they can always make it unavailable. The other way around will only waste visas.

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Originally Posted by EB22010Dec

I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years :)
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

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Since this was raised about WhereismyGC, we are responding here.

We encourage people to understand the numbers. The above mentioned accuracy was for 2019 EB2-India. The accuracy measures whether we hit the target right on its head (i.e. bulls eye). For most of the categories our cone of probability (i.e. best and worst case scenarios) are generally accurate. But we haven't figured out an easy way to calculate or depict that. That's why we are measuring on bull's eye which is relatively easy to calculate. Our recommendation while using our forecast is to use the worst case scenario rather than best or even average case. There is tremendous demand very limited supply which causes crazy fluctuations. e.g. people from EB2-I 2007 were approved in 2011. And people from EB-2 I 2009 are still waiting. That's tragic but also tells you how wild swings there can be. That's why instead of looking at bull's eye, we encourage people to look at the cone of probability and plan your life / career accordingly.