don't take CO's words seriously.
all these words are just excuses.........
we never know the real time data and nobody is checking him.
he does what he wants, but his words are nothing but BS........
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
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don't take CO's words seriously.
all these words are just excuses.........
we never know the real time data and nobody is checking him.
he does what he wants, but his words are nothing but BS........
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
Even they share the info, it won't make any difference.
CO's words are not trustable at all. He played EB community big time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
I understand your frustation....my colleague is from srilanka...he applied with me for his GC...now he has his EAD and waiting for GC card...he is in USA for last 4 years...sometimes i feel like why this difference...but sometimes i feel thinking that way i am becoming selfish and jealous seeing others get GC which is not right too..
Par kya kare...akir hum tho insan hey baghavan tho nahi ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
If this is true, then CO's hands are not tied by law. He thinks it is not "wise" to do a BTM even if there are ample justifications.(fill up the EB2 queue for similar spillover next year). His statement Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time says it all. He wants to be conservative.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
My PD is April 15th, 2007. Ha hahhaha. Stuck for the last two months now.
I was hoping that once I get my GC, I would quickly quit my boring IT job and start doing what i really love. I regularly compete in cross-fit sports in our state. I am a certified fitness trainer and wanted to shift into this field..
Well, I am stuck !!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.
Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
That hurts! Hopefully you will be C within a couple of months and get out of this mess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by valuablehurdle
I think you are right.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think we cannot assume anything until Q3 next year. They will first see the trend of EB1 and EB2 Row for first two quarters and then depending upon that, make a SFM or BTM. I dont think they would be proactive to think that this SFM or BTM EB2IC applications would be documentarily qualified to use next year SOFAD. This is something we are thinking.
Friends,
Everyone's frustration is understandable. This month's VB did disappoint. However, let us be thankful about the fact that the dates remained stay-put at Apr 15, '07. The way CO commented makes me a little worried about next month's VB bulletin. I hope it does not retrogress from its current state at least.
Huh... so typical americanism.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
May be next time if anyone talks to him , we should ask his opinion that in absence of legislative action , what could be done to provide some relief for people who have been waiting for years (PWMB) to file 485 :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The past method of advancing the dates and then retrogressing was better for us than present clarity of USCIS where while they will not retrogress the dates, they will not advance it until they have underlying visas available.
Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -
We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?
In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.
They can not allocate more than 27% in any quarter except last quarter.. This has been discussed many times in this thread but I know this thread has grown large enough..
Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
Yes, it can be as long as EB1/EB2ROWMP usage is less and first quarter overall VISA usage is less than 27% of 140K.Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
FY2011- EB2I - all FY quota was use by April 2011.
Friends,
I am little tired of thinking about this bulletin and how this has Effed up a lot of people's hopes. So here is something that I found funny thinking about the distribution of our visitors around the world.
I apologize in advance to anybody who is going to be offended by this. If you get offended please write to QBF and he will straighten you out. QBF sorry my friend ... I am just not in a good mood ... so trying to pick on you. I hope you don't mind.
Enjoy ! And send some suggestions and we will update this graph of our visitors around the world.
p.s. Teddy - Where is Rodnyb? Lets find him :)
Jago Mohan Pyaare !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by meso129
I would say don't read too much into what is written in VB other than the dates. CO always fills VBs with lot of gibberish as if he has to create a multi-page document. Sometimes he copy-pastes INA into VB. Other times he adds his own thoughts which will change in the very next bulletin. Look up the dates and ignore the CO's explanations in VB.
Thanks evoori and veni001Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
He is amazing to give the shitty reason all the time....Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Q,
The disappointment is a repeat of Sep 2010. Last yr it was a surge of EB1 and Eb2 ROW. Are we sure it's again EB1 and EB2 row or is their some other reason? You also pointed out some time back that their are enough cases from EB1 and EB2 row then why they were kept on hold for 2-3 months. I am not seeing BTM in near future. What a mess?
I think the disappointment is due to, as Leo called it, "Elevated Expectations".
And yes, I think I am guilty of not keeping any safety buffer in my projections. So e.g. in this case I thought they would continue to run EB1 and EB2 ROW at the same rate as first 10 months. But it seems 11th and 12th month they seem to expect a pickup in those categories which is why they slowed EB2IC train.
However on a second thought I do wonder how come when August has just started they know that EB1 and EB2ROW are going to pick up. It does suggest some sort of policy decision and arrangement across agencies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Looks like my prediction came true...unfortunately!! My Sep 2007 PD remains a distant dream
Quote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
Sorry guys I have lost it today.....
Oh by God lag gayi…
kya se kya hua…
dekha to katora…
jhaanka to kuan…
ye bheja garden hai
aur tension maali hai
bhaag bhaag GC ke picche bhaag!!!
Saala naseeb hi ga**du toh kya karega soggadu (et al...)
Good analysis Nishanth. I have one question, the demana data for EB2IC as of september is 8000. Do you think it's going stay at same level for October or will it reduce by another 2-3k.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Since there is no movement for EB2IC in Sept 2011, FY 2012 (Oct 2012) start with 8K. No reduction. In addition we have to add porting and PWMB numbers. So total of 18K demand.
Good analysis Nishant. Wanted to do something like this...but i lost it today, did not want to get into 2012 so early and did not want to attract attacks from friends here who are as pissed as me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by harick
So what happens to those who have rec'd NVC fee notice? I read somewhere that the fees expire in 12 months.. Is my understanding correct? If that's the case then people who have rec'd these fee notices in March this year will expire by the time the Q3 move kicks in. Articles that I have read on NVC notices have shown movement in few months.. Not sure why the hold up on EB2? This sucks!
This was discussed few months ago and I think the final verdict was, people have 12 months to pay the NVC fees in response to the notice. However once the fees is paid, it wont expire and will be used as and when their dates are Current.
Why there was an hold on EB2... very simple... DOS/USCIS wanted it. Somebody posted here that Mr. CO said that EB1 and EB2 ROW have surged. Not sure if that is authentic. In any case good luck for FY 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan2008
harick, Jan2008, both your questions, skpanda answered very well.
basically, demand data had no significance to decision of EB2 I/C movement for September, it turns out.
skpanda, a very important reason I did this analysis quickly, was I wanted to give reasonable hope and future direction to everyone. I was feeling really sad for everyone, even sogaddu disappeared.
Thanks for your kind words.
It's best, and honestly pragmatic, to take this year by year, hence only did so for FY 2012.
gchopeful123 and fellow LOTR fans, wish we could see some inspiring LOTR quote. But today is a hard day, one has to admit.
What the ^$&^$%#%#%##^$^$$##!..............sorry guys but this really, really sucks :(
I'm just soooooooooooooo....... disappointed !!!
And Soggadu changed his avatar which is even more depressing ..sigh..
About EB3-I movement.
Many people were wondering how so much EB3 I movement. Teddy put a very interesting thought in another forum. Since these dates are so old, USCIS might be issuing EVL RFEs, and they don't get response or don't get proper response to them, and hence they want to move to a larger cushion date, because of this pattern.
One has to think, these dates for EB3 I are in 2002, it is 9 years back. Some folks may have just gone back for good. Or gone to other countries. Or may have found it really difficult to maintain that job profile / job area for such unreasonable period of time.
As far as BTM goes, they can do that anytime, can't they? The 27% limitation rule applies only to that particularly fiscal years visa usage, but even in Oct or Nov, they can do a BTM to take in the applications and actually assign visa to some of them only in Q4 FY 2012?
Any forward movement has to occur ONLY WHEN more visas are available than are demanded by USCIS.
In October even if they consider full year quota for EB2I, that is woefully short to the demand which is basically 8K or so.
An October BTM was a possibility when September showed decent forward movement. Now they have effectively killed prospects of BTM until end of FY 2012 Q1 or Q2. i.e. Dec or March.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Thanks Q - makes sense.
Friends, what does BTM mean?
Till y'day BTM meant = Big Temporary Movement
Now it means "Blocked Tangled Movement"
Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.
The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.
It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).
I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.
------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD
Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000
January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175
Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.
It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.
PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.
You are right! I feel the second abbreviation looks more appropriate to me.
It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?
I am also in the same boat.Infact i was so confident that the dates would move, I did not think about the h1b ext.Quote:
Originally Posted by memk26
It is same what I have assumed , my PD is 2nd Jan 2008 and think still there will be 25k people ahead of me so it will be 25k SOFAD including regular quota needed to clear all cases before me. Only one thing can save me is is DOS go little bit extra to create a buffer in case if not all PERM approval translate into I 485.. I may barely get a chance for 2012. For 2013 may be I will get it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
But data points different that what if holds true NVC is doing. NVC is sending out email for fee as late as Sep 2008 ( as per some one recent post ) If that is true then we are looking EB2 will be C next fall. YES I am not kidding it will be Current.