EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Just attaching the status update file for NSC from this Telegram group. I found it pretty useful. Similar images for MSC and SRC are available in the group and I think they have started posting again every day.

Attachment 1785

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What is difference between LIN(SC) and LIN(LB) charts? As my luck would have it, I am in LIN2190200001 - 20000 bucket which has the longest blue bar. I believe the data is only for I-485 applications which may be about ~1/4th of all receipt numbers in that 20K bucket.

I have tried to follow some of these receipt trends as to who is getting greened first and gave up now because it's completely random. I remember back to my Mumbai days before electronic vending machines for tickets where there used to be serpentine queues for 6 ticket windows to get on the train. You will have some sly people waiting around milling in the back (me included many times) and suddenly a new window will open and there will be an almighty rush to that one. So it will happen that some guys who were not even in any line will just get their ticket in a few min and go away whistling while others who waited patiently for 45 min in other queues far away from the new counter will just continue waiting staring daggers. ;)

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Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel

What is difference between LIN(SC) and LIN(LB) charts? As my luck would have it, I am in LIN2190200001 - 20000 bucket which has the longest blue bar. I believe the data is only for I-485 applications which may be about ~1/4th of all receipt numbers in that 20K bucket.

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SC = Service Center - I think this is for concurrent I140 + 485 with Premium Processing - they go directly to Service Center
LB = Lockbox - all normal I485 applications

I am in LIN219018**** - just got FP on Friday so you should be getting yours soon hopefully.

Looks like they've started Greening some 2021 filings even though there are a lot of 2020 filings they haven't processed. Maybe these are straight 485 applications instead of downgrades...

Btw, this includes both EB and FB.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I have tried to follow some of these receipt trends as to who is getting greened first and gave up now because it's completely random. I remember back to my Mumbai days before electronic vending machines for tickets where there used to be serpentine queues for 6 ticket windows to get on the train. You will have some sly people waiting around milling in the back (me included many times) and suddenly a new window will open and there will be an almighty rush to that one. So it will happen that some guys who were not even in any line will just get their ticket in a few min and go away whistling while others who waited patiently for 45 min in other queues far away from the new counter will just continue waiting staring daggers. ;)

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From the guy who has been following this data closely for few months now, on Trackitt confirms that USCIS is processing cases based on ND only (PD doesn't even matter in his words). I remember those rainy days in Mumbai about what you mentioned, I was just studying Markov Chains and queuing model and how I would ponder standing on those queues, thinking about M/M/1 queues and what not.

I am working on a Python script to scrape data from USCIS case tracker (I asked few folks on TrackItt who were already doing this for MSC if they can share source code, but didn't get any response). Currently my script takes a few of hours to get data for 20K cases (I am using 'requests' and 'pyquery') which is not very practical. So I need to work out the kinks for diff'ing the data between days using Pandas DF and schedule a crontab or something. I will let you guys know if I get something working in reasonable time.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

The whole point of FD is to have a pool of people ready to use the visas in the final quarter of a FY when there are ample number of visas available and to minimize the wastage of visa. This was part of the improvement plan in 2014-15 resulting in the introduction of Filing Date and Final Action Date.

The law allows only for a certain % of visas for each countries for first 3 quarters. In most cases Eb1 visas are processed first in the beginning of the FY, followed by EB2 and finally EB3. It means if a Greece born person applies for EB based GC in March 2021, his petition will be prioritized over an over subscribed applicant who filed in October 2020.

CO is from DOS and he does not have the authority on USCIS work. Last year same CO said USCIS will waste 25,000 visas and when DOS released statistics for FY 2020 USCIS had issued 148K visas of the maximum 156 K visas, a tremendous effort when we had lost 3 months due to covid. I appreciate your efforts in researching and finding the details. Don't take my word for it, you can check for visa statistics in the official sites for yourself.

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I was wondering about this post from the lawsuit thread. Does that mean people current this fiscal year that don't get greened this year, will have to wait till Q4 next fiscal year? Does this mean that next year the FADs will retrogress because spillover is only applied in Q4? I thought CO had said they won't retrogress.

Also, I think I read somewhere that USCIS sometimes issues cards into October but pulling from past year's quota. Is that true?

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Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel

From the guy who has been following this data closely for few months now, on Trackitt confirms that USCIS is processing cases based on ND only (PD doesn't even matter in his words). I remember those rainy days in Mumbai about what you mentioned, I was just studying Markov Chains and queuing model and how I would ponder standing on those queues, thinking about M/M/1 queues and what not.

I am working on a Python script to scrape data from USCIS case tracker (I asked few folks on TrackItt who were already doing this for MSC if they can share source code, but didn't get any response). Currently my script takes a few of hours to get data for 20K cases (I am using 'requests' and 'pyquery') which is not very practical. So I need to work out the kinks for diff'ing the data between days using Pandas DF and schedule a crontab or something. I will let you guys know if I get something working in reasonable time.

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Not sure if this helps
https://github.com/cczhong11/check_uscis_script

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Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel

From the guy who has been following this data closely for few months now, on Trackitt confirms that USCIS is processing cases based on ND only (PD doesn't even matter in his words). I remember those rainy days in Mumbai about what you mentioned, I was just studying Markov Chains and queuing model and how I would ponder standing on those queues, thinking about M/M/1 queues and what not.

I am working on a Python script to scrape data from USCIS case tracker (I asked few folks on TrackItt who were already doing this for MSC if they can share source code, but didn't get any response). Currently my script takes a few of hours to get data for 20K cases (I am using 'requests' and 'pyquery') which is not very practical. So I need to work out the kinks for diff'ing the data between days using Pandas DF and schedule a crontab or something. I will let you guys know if I get something working in reasonable time.

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Mods can remove this link if it violates any terms: do a search for github gentlespoon USCIS case status checker.

I would caution against banging their dbs too much and getting in trouble because of what will appear to be a DoS attack.

Also FYI, here are some people who are involved in USCIS Data Analytics: https://databricks.com/session_na20/...ytics-platform

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Mods can remove this link if it violates any terms: do a search for github gentlespoon USCIS case status checker.

I would caution against banging their dbs too much and getting in trouble because of what will appear to be a DoS attack.

Also FYI, here are some people who are involved in USCIS Data Analytics: https://databricks.com/session_na20/...ytics-platform

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Thanks @AndhraGuy and TD for the information. Much appreciated !

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Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel

From the guy who has been following this data closely for few months now, on Trackitt confirms that USCIS is processing cases based on ND only (PD doesn't even matter in his words).

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Is this from the MSC thread?

A lot of downgrade I140s that are in regular processing haven't been approved yet. I wonder what will happen to them when USCIS goes through the batches in order of ND.

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Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel

I am working on a Python script to scrape data from USCIS case tracker (I asked few folks on TrackItt who were already doing this for MSC if they can share source code, but didn't get any response). Currently my script takes a few of hours to get data for 20K cases (I am using 'requests' and 'pyquery') which is not very practical. So I need to work out the kinks for diff'ing the data between days using Pandas DF and schedule a crontab or something. I will let you guys know if I get something working in reasonable time.

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I think you might end up replicating what the Chinese group on Telegram is doing (see link I sent upthread). Lots of Indians on that Telegram group too. Might make more sense to talk to them and team up with them - they already have all the data for 485 and 765s. They reply on the Telegram channel if you message them.

EDIT: They don't scrape I140s in case you are interested in that.

We have lots of discussion regarding interfiling of medicals in this forum i still can't agree . Here is my case

485 submitted without medicals - Oct 2020
Primary applicant received RFE for missing pages of 485J on May 20th.
Both Primary and spouse medicals were submitted within 3 weeks along with 485J RFE response.

Today we received RFE to submit medicals for spouse.

Spouse application is considered as a separate application and didn't linked to the the medicals submitted as part of Primary applicant. I guess i will have to get a new medicals from USCIC doctor and resubmit.

anybody have similar situation ?

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

We have lots of discussion regarding interfiling of medicals in this forum i still can't agree . Here is my case

485 submitted without medicals - Oct 2020
Primary applicant received RFE for missing pages of 485J on May 20th.
Both Primary and spouse medicals were submitted within 3 weeks along with 485J RFE response.

Today we received RFE to submit medicals for spouse.

Spouse application is considered as a separate application and didn't linked to the the medicals submitted as part of Primary applicant. I guess i will have to get a new medicals from USCIC doctor and resubmit.

anybody have similar situation ?

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Sorry to hear that. You have no other choice than to respond to this RFE now. Respond to it ASAP before they forget your spouse's application again.

In one of my friends' case, he sent the medicals for himself and his spouse to TSC, but meanwhile TSC transferred their cases to the local office and he received the RFEs from the local office. He resubmitted new medicals and is currently waiting to be approved. He was told that they are waiting for some new documentation from TSC (probably the medicals he previously sent) and can't take the action until the file is complete.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Is this from the MSC thread?

A lot of downgrade I140s that are in regular processing haven't been approved yet. I wonder what will happen to them when USCIS goes through the batches in order of ND.

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Yes, check replies from user 'brahmkish'

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Originally Posted by abcx13

I think you might end up replicating what the Chinese group on Telegram is doing (see link I sent upthread). Lots of Indians on that Telegram group too. Might make more sense to talk to them and team up with them - they already have all the data for 485 and 765s. They reply on the Telegram channel if you message them.

EDIT: They don't scrape I140s in case you are interested in that.

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Yeah i think they have the same data I'd essentially be looking to scrape. It's just that their updates are not as frequent. I guess, I also need to also calm down a bit because there is nothing much I can do, even with access to all that data :).

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Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel

Yes, check replies from user 'brahmkish'

Yeah i think they have the same data I'd essentially be looking to scrape. It's just that their updates are not as frequent. I guess, I also need to also calm down a bit because there is nothing much I can do, even with access to all that data :).

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Yeah, hopefully now they will update daily like they used to in April. Their visualizations are easier to read than the Trackitt data, though I guess that is more granular!

I don't understand how there are so many apps at MSC. I thought MSC is for straight, i.e. no downgrade, EB apps. Do FB apps also go there? Even if so, surely the spurt at MSC in FY21 is mostly EB apps?

Attachment 1786

I have no idea how they are going to process so many apps without wasting. I'm sure they could process if someone smart were running it, but I have zero faith in the people in charge.

There's like 12k 485s in each bar and 20 bars each or so (just eyeballing).

Can anyone recommend a good civil surgeon for getting the I-693 medicals done in the Atlanta, Alpharetta or surrounding areas?
Thanks!

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Can anyone recommend a good civil surgeon for getting the I-693 medicals done in the Atlanta, Alpharetta or surrounding areas?
Thanks!

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I think you can check on USCIS website https://my.uscis.gov/findadoctor. There is nothing like a good civil surgeon. All they do is check your medical history, immunization records and if you don't have per-existing immunization records from India then they order anti-body tests. It's pretty much lab work. The doctors that USCIS has on their website know the drill and all it comes down to is the cost and how much your insurance will cover. Most doctors charge between $200-$300 for the medical test and many employers reimburse that fee too.

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Originally Posted by KScali

Experts ,
Like many others, I filed I-485 in Oct 2020(PD - 04/2012 EB3) with Texas service center. Still waiting for EAD/fingerprinting.
I am relocating early next month from Massachusetts to California. I will still continue to work remotely for the same employer.
Employer is filling new LCA/H1B for the new location(home office).
My question is, can the timing of my move have any effect on the I-485 processing ?
If the biometrics appointment is sent around the time of my move , will I be able to reschedule it in the new location ?
As some cases get transferred to FO and if that happens in my case and it's the local Mass FO , will I be able to get that changed after the move?
Once I move and change the address on USCIS website , can that cause unnecessary delays ?
Anything else that I should be concerned of ?

Appreciate any suggestions.

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Posting again. - Thanks

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Originally Posted by vedu

Sorry to hear that. You have no other choice than to respond to this RFE now. Respond to it ASAP before they forget your spouse's application again.

In one of my friends' case, he sent the medicals for himself and his spouse to TSC, but meanwhile TSC transferred their cases to the local office and he received the RFEs from the local office. He resubmitted new medicals and is currently waiting to be approved. He was told that they are waiting for some new documentation from TSC (probably the medicals he previously sent) and can't take the action until the file is complete.

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Thanks @vedu . Yes my attorney also recommend to get a new medical for my wife. I am getting current on 1st July so better to hurry up and resubmit the medicals asap.

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Originally Posted by KScali

Posting again. - Thanks

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Cases with nuances is better to get a lawyers advice.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

I am a layman, so excuse me. But cannot understand why EB2's of 2012 would not downgrade to EB3.

EB2 final action date: 1 Jun 11, Filing date: 1 Dec 11
EB3 final action date: 1 Jan 13, Filing date: 1 Feb 14

All 2012 dates are covered by EB3.

Context: PD Feb 2012. Thinking of (a) joining old employer; (b) whether to continue on EB2 or to file EB3 I140.
Charlie's call on 6/28 should provide some clarity

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Any thoughts ?

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Can anyone recommend a good civil surgeon for getting the I-693 medicals done in the Atlanta, Alpharetta or surrounding areas?
Thanks!

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All doctors will follow USCIS guidelines and do the complete process no shortcut. Do your homework to learn the step by step process, vaccination and blood work details, then call up few numbers and ask for the price and timeline then decide where to go for medicals. The complete process will take arround 7 to 10 days or even longer. There are few threads in this forum to refer. search for "I-693" or "I693"

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Originally Posted by KScali

Experts ,
Like many others, I filed I-485 in Oct 2020(PD - 04/2012 EB3) with Texas service center. Still waiting for EAD/fingerprinting.
I am relocating early next month from Massachusetts to California. I will still continue to work remotely for the same employer.
Employer is filling new LCA/H1B for the new location(home office).
My question is, can the timing of my move have any effect on the I-485 processing ?
If the biometrics appointment is sent around the time of my move , will I be able to reschedule it in the new location ?
As some cases get transferred to FO and if that happens in my case and it's the local Mass FO , will I be able to get that changed after the move?
Once I move and change the address on USCIS website , can that cause unnecessary delays ?
Anything else that I should be concerned of ?

Appreciate any suggestions.

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H1-B
H1-B is location and employer specific. So if you are with the same employer and change locations, you need to amend your existing H1-B to reflect the new location. If you are also maintaining H1-B, do the amendment process.

Pending I-485 after 180 days
As you have already made up your mind about relocation, I assume that you already know that you are eligible for AC21 protection. AC21 only requires the job to be in "same or similar classification". So if there is no change in your job title or description or SOC code you are a perfect candidate. AC21 does not require the new job to be in the same geographic location or pay.

You have to file AR-11 form to reflect change of address. Once an AR-11 is filed, the USCIS system automatically updates address on all pending applications with your A#. you may get fingerprinting at the new ASC (CA) or old ASC (MA). It all depends on internal USCIS processing, timing of AR-11, system updates and such. Once you file AR-11, the AO might send a RFE for I-485 Supp J, if he or she thinks that you have moved to a different job. Then you have respond with evidence for the RFE. After AR-11, you can request USCIS to reschedule biometric at new ASC location. Delays associated with AR-11 are expected, but depending on a variety of things it may even speedup your biometric in rare situations.

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Can anyone recommend a good civil surgeon for getting the I-693 medicals done in the Atlanta, Alpharetta or surrounding areas?
Thanks!

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You are looking for specific input for a specific location. Try google as some users might not reply to remain anonymous. It might pop-up some thread somewhere regarding recent experiences at your location.

Other than money and duration (days), this process is standard. You need to use USCIS - Find a Doctor tool to locate approved civil surgeons in your zip code. Then ask questions about what the process is like, what tests, money part and how busy they are. Depending on your "shopping around", you can decide to go with what is convenient for you.

Good Luck.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Cases with nuances is better to get a lawyers advice.

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I agree. KScali , you case has a lot of variables. Get input from your attorneys.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Yeah, hopefully now they will update daily like they used to in April. Their visualizations are easier to read than the Trackitt data, though I guess that is more granular!

I don't understand how there are so many apps at MSC. I thought MSC is for straight, i.e. no downgrade, EB apps. Do FB apps also go there? Even if so, surely the spurt at MSC in FY21 is mostly EB apps?

Attachment 1786

I have no idea how they are going to process so many apps without wasting. I'm sure they could process if someone smart were running it, but I have zero faith in the people in charge.

There's like 12k 485s in each bar and 20 bars each or so (just eyeballing).

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GCs are also issued by the field offices around the country. I don't know how many are actually transferred but they are not letting people know for sure. I enquired about my case and found out it's no longer at MSC though there is no update on the case tracking.

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Originally Posted by KScali

Experts ,
Like many others, I filed I-485 in Oct 2020(PD - 04/2012 EB3) with Texas service center. Still waiting for EAD/fingerprinting.
I am relocating early next month from Massachusetts to California. I will still continue to work remotely for the same employer.
Employer is filling new LCA/H1B for the new location(home office).
My question is, can the timing of my move have any effect on the I-485 processing ?
If the biometrics appointment is sent around the time of my move , will I be able to reschedule it in the new location ?
As some cases get transferred to FO and if that happens in my case and it's the local Mass FO , will I be able to get that changed after the move?
Once I move and change the address on USCIS website , can that cause unnecessary delays ?
Anything else that I should be concerned of ?

Appreciate any suggestions.

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My quick 2 cents - NEVER forget that GC is future employment. So all that your lawyer needs to take care is your move in the short term. Company can continue to say that your future job hasn't changed.

All the best.