you'd get out next month. Don't worry. We will see steady movement starting October, at least by a week or two with each VB. Good Luck.
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agree 100%.
Mr.CO always finds different excuses to justify what he does.
the truth is that nobody is monitoring what he does.
he does not give a damn to EB immigrants at all.
While we are suffering, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well.
excuse my language. that's the truth.
Extremely disappointing visa bulletin with dates not moving at all for EB2IC. I am more frustrated because there is no clarity or transparency offered at all on part of the USCIS or DOS. Bulletin after bulletin, the saga of endless waiting continues.
I am going to quote a world famous unknown personality who said on some other forum:
This whole prediction game is like predicting the number of beans in a jar - except in this case there is a whole other jar that exists but no one knows how many beans are in there. So no matter how accurate your prediction of the number of beans in the visible jar, you will always be wrong since there is a hidden jar that we don't even see.
I rest my case. USCIS wins.
Nishant, we can always count on you to bring a very practical perspective. Though massively disappointed, i think we need to continue to focus on what we need to do to be successful in whatever we are pursuing.
On a lighter note - one of my colleagues has PD of 4/21/2007 and we are working on the same project. He had been preparing all the documents needed to file 485 for last couple of weeks. We were in a client meeting and all of a sudden he blurts out "What the f***", every one is looking at him quizzically as it was totally inappropriate. Only after the meeting we realized that he was checking visa bulletin during the meeting and he was reacting to visa bulletin and not to what client team was saying :-) I need to go and explain this to program manager now :-)
This is cruel. But you should be current any month now.
gcseeker great advice. I especially strongly recommend 3 & 4 on your list.
Would've liked to. I belong to the state that has the distinct honor of passing SB1070 ;) Those from here wouldn't be a bad idea to get together for a drink. We will ask Jack Brown to send us whatever he is going to smoke tonight :)
Harick ... thanks .. we need this tonight !!
As per next year .... I would bet that the SOFAD next year should be similar to what we will see this year unless Kazarian situation changes.
Q, I have bolded what you said. Your argument is incorrect. What it means is: out of the total porting numbers, 2.2K were between Jan 2002 and Sept 2002. The rest were between Sept 2002 and Apr 2007. We really don't yet know how many in total, but a rough estimation may be made by adding the decrease in demand data of EB3-I between Sept 2002 and Apr 2007 and the 2.2K.
Yes, agree.
The reason why he is not doing BTM is that he does not care at all........
BTM does not make any difference to his life, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well everyday.
Thousands of families are on the edge because of his action, but he just does not care........
We have been stuck to this deep hole for too long. Endless waiting is killing all these talented people. I just don't believe people can focus on work while being treated like shit by DOS/USCIS.
Well said. While we get into the details and intricacies in the calculations here, I feel the Visa Office/CO just think in broad strokes and decide on what is going to be the easiest for the agencies to cope with. Hence, on hindsight, the expectations for "making PD current" etc seem over the top now.
legislative change is the only way out. While our friends who are PWMB or PDs in 2007 can wait for the VB to move one week every month for most of next fiscal year, folks like me with PDs in 2008 (we know there huge density of applications the whole of 2008) and beyond are doomed to wait at the mercy of spillovers.
Actually if you look at this another way CO is just the administrator his job is to ensure that the allocations are met. Unfortunately the system is so complex with too many rules that intersect each other his job is tough. At the end of the day the problem is that the numbers are way to less. We are all SOFAD dependent in 2009 it was 10K, in 2010 it was 26K now in 2011 its 30K plus, unfortunately it’s time for all of us to set realistic expectations. The dream run has raised expectations to a very high level.
As every one predicted the Labor clearance caused the ROW to utilize more visas, otherwise they would spilled over to I/C. In May they did not see I-140 demand, which kicked in June/July onwards, then they stopped moving dates.
Only hope for the year is a bill that removes country limit on EB category. Hope for the best.
ok guys lets crunch some data for coming year. We might get uscis inventory pretty soon.
As the inventory was updated in May with the Local office demand I think the only way would be to wait for the next one in October and then extrapolate to a year. Otherwise you can assume that EB3 I itself had atleast 2K LO demand that makes porting 6K. Let me know if Iam missing something.
Guys, what are the various data reports we are expecting in upcoming months now, that we should watch out for. So that we can start the analysis again.
I think. to calculate EB3->EB2 porting, we also need to consider CP/district office cases that never showed up in the inventory but I am not sure, how significant is this one.
qblogfan,
I understand your pain, trust me it'll be 14 years tomorrow, I really understand what you are talking about.
At the end of the day, CO, as I see is doing much better job than his predecessors. He is doing his best to not waste visa numbers, and wiggle enough room for CI categories with in his bounds.
Like Teddy and Others mentioned, our expectations were high and the information/reasoning provided is not enough to convince either forward movement/no-movement.
Hang in there mate, I really wish you well. If you see the difference between yesterday-today-tomorrow is just our 'expectations'.
Best!
You know what i am going to smoke...more thn welcome to join..
I have moved to a state where we have Desi woman as a governor but also have n honor of passing something similar to SB1070 and on top of that some of the TOP dumb state legislators are talking about having border security at state border. Are u Efing kidding me? Are they Efing HIGH? We border GA,NC and Atlantic Ocean. What kind of border security are they talking about?
anyways, jokes aside. It is good that VB didn't retro today. But i was hoping we will have enough movement to have total of 12 months movement for FY year 2011. It was little short. If it averages less thn a year for next few years, GC wait for EB2 will someday reach to EB3 levels.
thanks for your kind words!
I just feel our EB immigrants are not being treated well.
I am upset because he should have BTMed in this summer, but he didn't.
I seriously doubt it would cause him any trouble if he had BTMed.
People with PD after July 2007 have been waiting for 4 years, how much longer should these people wait?
EB2 should be mad as hell!
One Chinese guy cotacted Mr.CO for his hold of EB2 and no explanation in VB, he replied:
I attempt to provide guidance regarding future visa
availability on a quarterly basis, and whenever I anticipate a significant
change. Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise
given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time. Recent
changes in USCIS processing of Employment cases is a great example.
Despite their trend of a somewhat low/stable rate of non China/India EB1 and
EB2 processing during the first 8+ months, large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.
It's just like shit as always. He always finds excuses for his decision. Nothing new, just full of bull shit again!
Usually there would be max 1-2 weeks once a while. But the major movement won't be until May-Jun onwards 2012.
Except however this year in unusual that they need to build pipeline if SOFAD is going to be more than 16-18K next year. So I would expect a good movement by Q1 2012 ie. calendar year.
Leo a few more years and you can start calling yourself "Native Indian"!! Jokes Apart ... but i hope your case sorts out soon in case your kids are going to become college age anytime soon.
again its tough luck for pwmb.. this is range of people who's wounds are bruised all the time...hope 2012 brings in good news...
A preliminary rough analysis for FY 2012.
8000 - demand data
4000 - PWMB hidden demand
6000 - Porting demand
They are kind of already beginning with above 18k demand in FY 2012, just moving dates back to July 2007 threshold would yield them 12k demand as well as the porting is a throughout the year consistent phenomena.
Let’s assume the 5k for EB2 I/C negates the Porting to be just 1000.
So we can say they are starting with 13k hidden/known/will arise demand.
Let's say each month later on, till Q3 2008 has almost 2500 demand each month.
Half August 2007 : 1250
Each month then on till late 2008 : 2500
SO -- Dates
-- ------
13k -- 15th August 2007
14.25k -- 1st Sep 2007
17k -- 8th Oct 2007
19.5k -- 8th Nov 2007
20k -- 15th Nov 2007
22k -- 8th Dec 2007
24.5k -- 8st Jan 2008
27k -- 8th Feb 2008
29.5k -- 8th March 2008
30k -- 15th March 2008
Positives:
- All EB2 I/C till 15th April 2007 accounted for.
- No 15/12 demand for EB1, EB2 ROW coming into FY 2012, backlog reduced as much as they could, so backlog is not a concern in FY 2012
- EB2 ROW shall continue to remain current
Puzzles:
- what will be patterns of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5
- will CO consider doing quarterly SO in conjunction with SFM
- is BTM in favor at all
- what will be strategy of CO in terms of SFM, UFM, BTM, and so on to have the pipeline functioning properly
Guys, let me know if something is wrong, or can be better factored in.
I dont think it is good since by next year people filling in EB1 and their attorneys will learn to game the Kazarian memo/system and start eating 100% of EB1 quota. Remember these are smart hard working people and will definitely game the system to their advantage when required. In other words, EB1 folks will make any kinda cock-n-bull stories about their work experience, publish another 4-5 junk papers, which will make it hard to reject their case.
That is true, they will be smarter. It won't be 12k from them again. I think this year was the peak in SOFAD. It should be written in gold in history. itihas ke pannon par suvarn aksharon se likha jaega.
Let's hope USCIS also gets smarter and rejects their cock-n-bull stories.
I am digressing now, but I saw guys from Nepal get their GCs in 8-9 months in EB2 ROW. Perspective :D :(
joke:
chaukidar to my father: aapka beta kya kar raha hai
my father: naukeri kar raha hai, 15 saal se GC ka wait kar raha hai
chaukidar: saabji, mei toh next year GC par jaa raha hun amrika, mera beta toh 6 saal pehle hi citizen ban gaya