EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Q, you may have missed this as Nishant agreed with my interpretation of CO's words in the VB. I believe he will continue with QSP for sure:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

1. Heartfelt congratulations to all who got current

2. Do not miss applying ever but also Remember that always in the month you are current, around the 8th, you will get VB for next month, so you will know if you are still current in next month, or your current month is the only period you have to get in.

3. Marriage: Since the dates have moved fast, I would like to say a higher number of folks would be not married, so how to handle this, needs to be discussed with lawyer and personal plans needs to be designed out.

4. And from VB:
Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

This is something new: or USCIS processing increases. It indicates to me that a very clever usage of words, on one hand, he says level of filings is low, and on other hand he kind of indicates but we have got some good stuff and it may get ready soon.

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Nishant, I think the word after what you bolded is equally important. Not only should the USCIS processing increase, but it should increase significantly

That is going to be the key. I am expecting CO will put off retrogression till he runs out of visas.

As to how much will the dates move forward from here? ..dunno and no body can guess either ...CO has been really generous ..God bless his heart!

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KD

QSP may continue. But any further movement can't happen beyond Mar bulletin. Then 485 cases will start hitting DOS pipeline.

p.s. - This assumes a 4 month processing time for 485 cases that are in good standing. I can imagine that since at least 40K cases may have hit the pipeline in Q1 of 2012FY, at least 10K will go through in first four month and that will be sufficient to cover any QSP.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, you may have missed this as Nishant agreed with my interpretation of CO's words in the VB. I believe he will continue with QSP for sure:

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smuggy, you might just get in next month. Next VB is the last VB before USCIS starts sending in bigger numbers of demand for EB2 IC and CO might start thinking about his slow stop retro trump cards.

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

enjoy karo dost. 3 months se bach gaya. Mine is 31st March, 2010.

Just thinking about all the delays caused by my company HR...they promised to file in mid 2009 which went onto 2009 end....finally was done in March 2010. It's hard to expedite in big companies, they take their own sweet time and don't really know the affect of delaying even by a month. Well it's life. Just signed a contract for a 415K home....hopefully should be currrent soon. Is it possible by the end of year.

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Just the fact that they accepted the application with the PD of current date, even though, that date is not current for a EB2 IC, shows that its fine and nothing to worry about, the derivative is just piggy backing on the main applicant.

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Originally Posted by veni001

First of all Congratulations!

Usually they leave PD blank for derivative application receipt notice. In any event as long as both of your applications are in the same packet no need to worry.

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Call me stupid but...

I for one don't think USCIS is going to process (adjuducate) the oct 2011 filings & request visas from DOS before aug/sep 2012.... So... CO will make the EB2 dates current and unused EB2(in addition to any unused EB1) visas (due to low demand) will trickle down to EB3 in aug/sep 2012....

Good Luck EB3...

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Originally Posted by MeraNoAayega

Call me stupid but...

I for one don't think USCIS is going to process (adjuducate) the oct 2011 filings & request visas from DOS before aug/sep 2012.... So... CO will make the EB2 dates current and unused EB2(in addition to any unused EB1) visas (due to low demand) will trickle down to EB3 in aug/sep 2012....

Good Luck EB3...

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MeraNoAayega,

Irrespective of spillover trickling down to EB3, I don't think CO will (or need to) wait until Aug/Sept 2012, to make Eb2IC "current" (if he already chose to)

More or less EB2IC is close to "current" now, which will definitely benefit EB3 community as long as one have an opportunity to port/upgrade.

Q, very good analysis!

I want to add one reason: I heard the government stopped the approval of prevailing wage application submitted after September 2011. They are still processing the PW of September 2011. I think maybe this caused a low demand of ROW EB2. Maybe this was intentional.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think the reason the dates moved has 2 key reasons.

Reason 1

It is true that DOS isn't seeing enough demand. Majority of Pre-July-2007 cases are approved for EB2. Whatever remains is cases with some problems - major or minor. Then whatever was filed Oct onwards .... will not hit DOS until after at least 4 months i.e. January of 2012. That is the reason the dates did move until Feb bulletin since the movement for Feb bulletin is based on January Demand data.

So as soon as the Oct filed 485s will start hitting DOS, the movement is going to stop or worse get into reverse gear.

I am 100% confident that the reversal will come in 1 or max 2 months. i.e. Mar or April bulletin. Then the dates will retrogress to around Q1 2008 or even earlier. But on Sep 2012 the dates will be around Q1 2008.

Reason 2

However if CO had not given QSP then the dates didn't need to move until May 2012. and then he would have hit the proverbial cliff of Jul 2007. That's why he applied QSP in Q1. So the second reason is "INTENT" of building pipeline. Math is one thing. But there is intent to build pipeline now rather than hit the cliff and then be forced to build pipeline. But the way he is building pipeline is very wise. He most likely didn't make it current to avoid clobbering of system as well as avoid political backlash and criticism in this charged environment. However friends we should thank him for doing the right thing. He has moved it far enough to lessen pain for a lot of people as well as help the system assure steady supply of applications as well as do it within his bounds to avoid criticism.

ps. - I doubt if he will continue to apply QSP going forward. We will see.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, you may have missed this as Nishant agreed with my interpretation of CO's words in the VB. I believe he will continue with QSP for sure:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD

QSP may continue. But any further movement can't happen beyond Mar bulletin. Then 485 cases will start hitting DOS pipeline.

p.s. - This assumes a 4 month processing time for 485 cases that are in good standing. I can imagine that since at least 40K cases may have hit the pipeline in Q1 of 2012FY, at least 10K will go through in first four month and that will be sufficient to cover any QSP.

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Nishant;KD2008; Q;

IMHO, CO can (may/will) continue implementing QSP so long as documentarily qualified EB1& EB2ROW-M-P applications are less than the total available VISA numbers(27%) for that quarter for both categories!

Thank you Veni001.

Also Thank you ThatIsAll and Vizcard for your responses. I have asked the same questions to my attorney. They will answer only on Monday. Your responses are quick and helps me.

I hope everyone get current soon including our EB3 friends.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Yes, as long as he/she is USCIS certified physician.

You need original passport for medicals.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni, I understand that. But documentarily qualified for India has to be 300 per month for EB2I ...and that's enough to stop any further dates progress.

In fact he had not applied QSP, there was absolutely no need to move the dates until May-Jun 2012. Will EB2I produce 300 documentarily qualified in January so that the Mar bulletin that comes out in Feb doesn't need to show dates progress? May be? Will there be 300 EB2I DQ's in Feb? You betcha! Of course but the dates movement is discretionary. So CO can do whatever. IMHO ... April bulletin shouldnt show any movement. If anything it should show retrogression.

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Q,

EB2IC FY2012 quota has been used long time back, so if CO want to stop/retro EB2IC forward movement he can do that at any time.

I agree with your statement EB2IC cut-off date movement is discretionary at this point, irrespective of 300 DQ's availability per month(for EB2IC).

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
EB2IC FY2012 quota has been used long time back, so if CO want to stop/retro EB2IC forward movement he can do that at any time.

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Q and Veni,

Can you elaborate for mortals like me? :) All I could understand is, QSP may not be applied, right?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

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Sorry but what you say does not make sense to me. CO won't retrogress until USCIS processing increases significantly as VB comments. The implied meaning is that the demand is more than Q2 quota + atleast Q1 QSP or some estimate of Q2 QSP. If anything, CO tends to follow same logic unless USCIS changes the ground rules completely with a large visa ask of more than 10k or so. This is unlikely to happen in March or April. June maybe so.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

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Q,
Assuming that CO is going by QSP rule, CO should have at least stalled the cutoff dates.

Looking at OCT'11 inventory EB2IC got ~12K DQ's and EB1+EB2ROWMP got another ~25K. Based on 27% limit, Q1 allocation should be ~22.5K (EB1+EB2+EB5)

We know that 10 - 12K is issued to EB2IC in Q1 (not counting porting), which means only 10-12K is issued to EB1+EB2ROWMP?

If the above is true and if the processing times improve (KD's point) then there may not be any QSP left in Q2, assuming porting will consume EB2I quarterly allocation.

Bottom line, we all agree that CO is using his discretion to build the pipe line.

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Originally Posted by vp5856

Q and Veni,

Can you elaborate for mortals like me? :) All I could understand is, QSP may not be applied, right?

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vp5856,
Please see my response above.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Sorry but what you say does not make sense to me. CO won't retrogress until USCIS processing increases significantly as VB comments. The implied meaning is that the demand is more than Q2 quota + atleast Q1 QSP or some estimate of Q2 QSP. If anything, CO tends to follow same logic unless USCIS changes the ground rules completely with a large visa ask of more than 10k or so. This is unlikely to happen in March or April. June maybe so.

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Kd,
It looks to me at-least NSC is doing better than TSC. Processing times are not updated since November so we don't know the current situation.

USCIS may not have put focus on EB2IC new filings in Q1 to keep VISA requests to DOS at the minimum, to allow further movement of cut-off dates?

There are 8 now in trackitt. 4 from Nebraska and 4 from Texas service centers.

It began around December ending and is continued through Jan first week.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

There are 8 now in trackitt. 4 from Nebraska and 4 from Texas service centers.

It began around December ending and is continued through Jan first week.

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Nishant,
That's a positive sign, even though TSC processing is slower than NSC.

Guys, I saw four approvals on MITBBS and these guys submitted in Oct. It looks like the new cases are becoming demand now.

I believe a large portion of the Oct. cases are converting to demand in this month. Also a huge number of new cases will hit USCIS really hard in this January because 3/15/2008-1/1/2009 guys will submit 485 in this month and the number may range from 20k-25k I believe. I think it's like Mr.CO may slow down or stop in the next VB based on these new observations.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

There are 8 now in trackitt. 4 from Nebraska and 4 from Texas service centers.

It began around December ending and is continued through Jan first week.

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Spec/Veni/Qesehmk/Nishant/Kanmani,

Whats your predictions/Calculations on next Visabulletin(mar'2012). Does it move atleast 3 more months? I am sure, atleast 50K+ Visa numbers required to clear current filings i.e till Dec 31 2009. Chances are high, next month dates will not move or doesn't retro, starting May/Jun dates may retrogress to Mar to Jun 2008. if that is the case, approx when will be next EB2I movement happens?I mean Jan 2010 and above.

Below text is from Feb'12 Visa bulletin

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Does this means, dates will move further atleast 3 to 6 months in the next bulletin? or is it going to be based on next months Demand Data?

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Originally Posted by username1

This is the most informative blog I have seen in recently.

Anybody! I have a query that is troubling me
I have two PD's one for NIW from Aug 2009 (current now) where I will have to work in underserved area for approx 3 more years if I apply for I 485(AOS) and will get GC only after 3 more years. The other PD is May 2010 which is after PERM (not current- may be current in next VB who knows!).

Definitely I need I485 approved but if next months VB shows my May 2010 PD current I would prefer to have that go for my I485 where I am not bound to 3 more years of underserved area service.

Here the question would be 1.Does PD from Aug 2009 be applied towards I 485 application for I-140 with PD May 2010?
2. If not then how safe is it wait till next months VB arrives for filing I-485 for Aug 2009 PD?

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username1,

I must admit to being slightly confused by what you are trying to achieve. That may be due to my lack of understanding.

I would assume that you have a Section 212(e) 2 year HRR on your J-1.

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Change of Status and Waivers of Requirement - If the exchange visitor is subject to the two-year home-country physical presence (foreign residence) requirement, he or she cannot change his/her status to that of H, L, K, or immigrant lawful permanent resident (LPR) until he or she has returned to his/her home country for at least two-years or received a waiver of that requirement. Such waivers may be requested and if approved, obtained under these five separate bases:

No Objection Statement;
Exceptional Hardship;
Persecution;
Conrad Program, or
Interested Government Agency

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I believe serving in an under-served area for 3 years is a waiver under the Conrad Program.

So the problem is not whether it is an EB2 or EB2-NIW, it is the 212(e) 2 Year HRR.

Whether you adjust status under EB2 or EB2-NIW, you still need to either serve the 2 Year HRR, serve the Conrad Program Waiver or obtain a waiver of some other sort for the 2 Year HRR.

In order to adjust and not fulfil the 3 years in an under-served area, you would need to get another Waiver that was not under the Conrad Program.

Have I missed something?

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

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Sorry to hear about ur situation..I am also in similar situation,,but little better,,
I am getting married in feb. and my PD is 6 months after urs..(sept. 09)
for me,,i can't move my wedding since it is only in little over a month,and i don't think i m gonna get approval in 2 months,,

if u really want to apply right now - 1 suggestion for u would be - send ur application but if you can move ur wedding date,,may be summer or before if possible.

december 2012 is too far and hard to guess what will happen by thn.. there are few uncertainties like 3012 can change the whole game or any administrative fix can change plus demand destruction..etc..
so i would say if u can move ur wedding dates early,,it would be little safe 4 u.. think about it for few days talk to ur future wife/family,,etc..
also talk 2 u lawyer..

gkjppp, this is my current take on this, and obviously things change day to day if new data reports come in.

- If there is no demand data released next month, or the demand data continues showing very low numbers (in the hundreds, not thousands), then we can again see a further move. The length of the move is again depending on the discretion of the agencies. By that time, they would have obtained filings all PWMB of 2007 as they filed in October, November, and new filings of Nov, Dec and January.
- I personally feel CO is just taking advantage of technicality of showing low demand data and advancing dates. So even if the above filings are a lot, unless they have turned into demand which he is unable to satisfy using QSP, he is going to move dates.
- Sooner or later, USCIS processing will catch up, and the filings will start translating into chunks of demand which CO might not be comfortable satisfying through QSP. If that demand accumulation is in the hundreds, he will stop dates, and once that demand comes into the thousands, he will retrogress.
- I believe that the visa numerical control program is automatic, but CO can override configuration. For example, in normal operation, if a date is current, and a visa number is requested, it will be granted and it won't appear in demand data. But suppose after the 20th of the month, CO sees some data points, and puts in a switch to block assigning visa numbers for EB2I, then the visa number request would be directed to pending file, and in next month, it would show up in demand data.
- I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Spec/Veni/Qesehmk/Nishant/Kanmani,

Whats your predictions/Calculations on next Visabulletin(mar'2012). Does it move atleast 3 more months? I am sure, atleast 50K+ Visa numbers required to clear current filings i.e till Dec 31 2009. Chances are high, next month dates will not move or doesn't retro, starting May/Jun dates may retrogress to Mar to Jun 2008. if that is the case, approx when will be next EB2I movement happens?I mean Jan 2010 and above.

Below text is from Feb'12 Visa bulletin

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Does this means, dates will move further atleast 3 to 6 months in the next bulletin? or is it going to be based on next months Demand Data?

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Originally Posted by sdesh005

Why has the prediction thread been hijacked for 485 filing questions?? Can we create a separate thread in the other Live Q&A section for that if it doesn't already exist? :)

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Under: Forum > Live Q&A & Discussion (Labor 140 485 H1 etc) > 485 & CP Related Topics

Prepare to file I485
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-to-file-I485

I-693 - Medical Exam and Vaccinations when applying for Green Card (I-485)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...rd-%28I-485%29

Birth Certificate Related
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ficate-Related

Post 485-Filing:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ost-485-Filing

http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/news/2012/20120106.shtml

these are good attorneys, interesting to read their post on feb bulletin. their website contains useful information.

"From a practical perspective, persons in the India and China EB2 categories who will become "current" in February 2012 should do their best to ensure that they file their Adjustment of Status (AOS) applications during that month. Until the March Bulletin is issued we will not know if there will be retrogression or continued advancement of dates. Please note that there is no advantage to filing an AOS application on the first date of the month. There is no need to rush to file as early as possible in February, just ensure that the AOS application is received by USCIS in February. "

I spoke with my attorney about the date movement and she said except for July 2007 fiasco, VB movements are by default on the conservative side. Retrogression is not something they want to do ever. But USCIS is extremely inconsistent and, the quality of their data and consistency of processing is always questionable. So CO does take that factor into account.

I also asked her about demand destruction. She said abandoning of GC process is extremely rare - only a couple of cases in last 4 years. Starting over GC process with new employer and recapturing old PD is quite common and more so in 2008/2009 cases. She said majority of folks stick with single PERM and same employer till they get their GC.

Hope this helps.

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

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You will NOT get your GC by Dec 2012. Moreover, there will be retrogression and then movement later. If you do decide to pass now, it should be current again some time in 2013. So its up to you at this point. I'd say if you are not looking to change jobs or are in no danger of losing your job, you could wait till 2013 (or later) to file.