EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-09-2011, 01:04 PM
pg_at_q

For the benefit of people who hate to register on IV, here's what rodnyb posted

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æÍ¬Ö÷ÌâÄ£Ê½ - Î´Ãû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
08-09-2011, 01:05 PM
pg_at_q

And then several other people discounted it saying it's just a prediction from one user...no weightage in that news.

AND THEN ... someone posted saying the news might carry some weightage (posting reproduced below)....I guess VB will be out anytime now...so don't take all of this seriously...

mitbbs news seems to be authentic
One of my chinese friends contacted the guy who posted the Sept VB date on mittbbs and found that he got the information from his lawyer. VB is supposed to be released today.
It looks reliable.

DOS & USCIS need not work as per our predictions! The date is not too far from what is plausible as well. Let us hope that the news is true!

Anyway in the mean time one can check for any changes in the VB web page by going to
https://www.changedetection.com/log/...13603_log.html
08-09-2011, 01:05 PM
username

I am just wondering way we are not seeing many I-485 approval this month (august) where as previous month (July) excuses was long weekend...
08-09-2011, 01:09 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by username

I am just wondering way we are not seeing many I-485 approval this month (august) where as previous month (July) accuse was long weekend...

This has exactly been my concern, we had some discussions couple of pages back. The smaller number of EB2 I/C when compared with other categories are concerning and do not augur well for the Sep VB. However lets hope for the best.
08-09-2011, 01:14 PM
kingcaeser

Dear Friends, Can some one indicate to me on what are the possibilities of getting my PD current? 17-Sep-2007 EB2. In a way my life is so dependent on this upcoming Visa bulletin..
08-09-2011, 01:16 PM
qblogfan

I have been monitoring MITBBS for almost everyday.

I never heard such predictions.

I think somebody made it up to mislead folks on IV website.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this news.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pg_at_q

And then several other people discounted it saying it's just a prediction from one user...no weightage in that news.

AND THEN ... someone posted saying the news might carry some weightage (posting reproduced below)....I guess VB will be out anytime now...so don't take all of this seriously...

mitbbs news seems to be authentic
One of my chinese friends contacted the guy who posted the Sept VB date on mittbbs and found that he got the information from his lawyer. VB is supposed to be released today.
It looks reliable.

DOS & USCIS need not work as per our predictions! The date is not too far from what is plausible as well. Let us hope that the news is true!

Anyway in the mean time one can check for any changes in the VB web page by going to
https://www.changedetection.com/log/...13603_log.html
08-09-2011, 01:17 PM
qesehmk

kingcaesar what's your timeline i.e. how much time do you need? This date will need a BTM. However I am very certain regardless of when you file .. you should have your GC by Mar 2012.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingcaeser

Dear Friends, Can some one indicate to me on what are the possibilities of getting my PD current? 17-Sep-2007 EB2. In a way my life is so dependent on this upcoming Visa bulletin..
08-09-2011, 01:17 PM
kingcaeser

I am really getting so confused by so many theories.. I do not understand most of them. Some strogly say, it will not move more than a month at the most, while some are strongly saying that it will go into 2008.. OMG.. I have no clue..
08-09-2011, 01:18 PM
pg_at_q

I agree my friend...!

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

I have been monitoring MITBBS for almost everyday.

I never heard such predictions.

I think somebody made it up to mislead folks on IV website.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this news.
08-09-2011, 01:19 PM
qesehmk

Guys ...
With QBFs explanation below - lets stop talking about it. Rumour begets rumour. So just be patient and not fan rumours in the interest of everybody.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

I have been monitoring MITBBS for almost everyday.

I never heard such predictions.

I think somebody made it up to mislead folks on IV website.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this news.
08-09-2011, 01:19 PM
qblogfan

EB2-China got some approvals in last weekend. Totally I saw at least 20 approvals.

I think they are approving PD prior to 4/15/2007.

I think we will see more approvals in this month. The number between 3.2007-4.2007 is much smaller than 10.2006-3.2007. that's why we are not seeing huge number of approvals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

This has exactly been my concern, we had some discussions couple of pages back. The smaller number of EB2 I/C when compared with other categories are concerning and do not augur well for the Sep VB. However lets hope for the best.
08-09-2011, 01:25 PM
username

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

EB2-China got some approvals in last weekend. Totally I saw at least 20 approvals.

I think they are approving PD prior to 4/15/2007.

I think we will see more approvals in this month. The number between 3.2007-4.2007 is much smaller than 10.2006-3.2007. that's why we are not seeing huge number of approvals.

your explanation makes complete sense to me. Thanks.
08-09-2011, 01:25 PM
kingcaeser

Dear qesehmk, I do not have enough job security at the moment and I have a family depending on me, both, here as well as in India. Hence the pressure. What happens when some one loses job after filing 485? Thanks for the encouraging thought you gave me! If I get my GC soon, I tell you, I cant thank you enough!!
08-09-2011, 01:31 PM
qesehmk

6 months after filing 485, you become eligible to change jobs under AC21. However if you lose a job before that, your employer may withdraw the 140 and/or USCIS may cancel 485. The chance for either is small. But it can happen.

Regardless make sure that work with a lawyer if you accrue unlawful presence after losing your job. My advice will be to remain honest. Most of the American systems are designed to account for common sense. So they won't reject your 485 solely based on accrual of some unlawful presence if any.

But of course lets hope and pray you don't lose your job.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingcaeser

Dear qesehmk, I do not have enough job security at the moment and I have a family depending on me, both, here as well as in India. Hence the pressure. What happens when some one loses job after filing 485? Thanks for the encouraging thought you gave me! If I get my GC soon, I tell you, I cant thank you enough!!
08-09-2011, 01:32 PM
gcseeker

KG

It depends on case to case.If the job loss is after six months of having filed the 485 or if the EAD has been received and six months have passed... one can use AC-21 portability rules and move to another job and complete the GC process in the new job.One will not need to do the labour or I-140 .

However if job loss is before the six months period , it essentially resets the entire process and one will have to find another employer and restart the GC process and can recapture the Old priority date.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingcaeser

Dear qesehmk, I do not have enough job security at the moment and I have a family depending on me, both, here as well as in India. Hence the pressure. What happens when some one loses job after filing 485? Thanks for the encouraging thought you gave me! If I get my GC soon, I tell you, I cant thank you enough!!
08-09-2011, 01:42 PM
operas

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)

import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)
08-09-2011, 01:45 PM
Jonty Rhodes

Has visa bulletin ever been released so late in the day in past few years? Just asking as I am little curious. Most of the time what I have observed that they are released around late morning to early afternoon. It is already 2:45 PM per EST.
08-09-2011, 01:47 PM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by operas

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)

import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)

Already have this in place ;)
08-09-2011, 01:48 PM
neospeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by operas

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)

import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)

You can just poll this url instead of checking those random html pages:

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...tember2011.pdf
08-09-2011, 01:48 PM
pg_at_q

Maybe CO was attending the fed meeting...it just ended ... so maybe now he'll go back to his office while grabbing a sandwich from subway...look up his e-mails on the way..and then reply to the IT guy letting him know to publish the VB on the website.
08-09-2011, 01:48 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Has visa bulletin ever been released so late in the day in past few years? Just asking as I am little curious. Most of the time what I have observed that they are released around late morning to early afternoon. It is already 2:45 PM per EST.

I mentioned in earlier post that the bulletin this year which moved dates to march 8th 2007, was released around 12:45 PST afternoon, as that's when I got call from my friend, who always calls me immediately as soon as VB is released, to inform. so it is possible. After 2PST , the probability goes almost 0. then it's curtains for one more day. When that happens, we can further discuss conspiracy theories as to why they did not release today :)
08-09-2011, 01:48 PM
indiasunil

It will be updated around 3:50 ET (or) 10:30 AM ET.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Has visa bulletin ever been released so late in the day in past few years? Just asking as I am little curious. Most of the time what I have observed that they are released around late morning to early afternoon. It is already 2:45 PM per EST.
08-09-2011, 01:50 PM
harick

I think if you replace the URL with http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...tember2011.pdf, you don't need the for loop.

Quote:

Originally Posted by operas

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)

import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)
08-09-2011, 01:54 PM
Jonty Rhodes

Thanks nishant2200 and indiasunil for shedding some light on it. My PD is in 2011 but I still feel very excited and sometimes tense awaiting those VBs. I can imagine the tension and excitement among people with PDs in 2007 and 2008. Hope, you guys get current this VB.
08-09-2011, 01:56 PM
pg_at_q

I think they are wising up now...maybe CO is talking with W.H. about the implication of recent announcement on the Visa Bulletin...they announced they'll let Entrepreneurs apply in EB2...but if EB2 is so messed up with almost 4-5 year wait for I/C, then they rule out I/C investing money or opening companies...
08-09-2011, 02:05 PM
polapragada

This wait is killing me. I will stop refreshing the bulletin and get a coffee
08-09-2011, 02:06 PM
operas

Quote:

Originally Posted by harick

I think if you replace the URL with http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...tember2011.pdf, you don't need the for loop.

Thanks updated..

import os, time, urllib

while True:
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")
if conn.code == 200: os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(2*60)
08-09-2011, 02:11 PM
Spectator

Whilst it might seem perverse, I am more interested to see whether CO includes some notes on future movement in the VB.

They have been spectacularly lacking for some time.

The dates will be what they will be.
08-09-2011, 02:13 PM
pdfeb09

Quote:

Originally Posted by operas

Thanks updated..

import os, time, urllib

while True:
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")
if conn.code == 200: os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(2*60)

import webbrowser

webbrowser.open("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")

will automatically open the link in your default browser.. !!

Here's my version:
if __name__ == "__main__":

import os, time, urllib,datetime,webbrowser
urlstr = "http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf"
while True:
print str(datetime.datetime.now())
conn = urllib.urlopen(urlstr)
print conn.code
if conn.code == 200:
webbrowser.open(urlstr)
break
time.sleep(2*60)
08-09-2011, 02:16 PM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by operas

Thanks updated..

import os, time, urllib

while True:
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")
if conn.code == 200: os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(2*60)

Make it work every month ;)

from google.appengine.api import urlfetch
import logging
import datetime
from dateutil.relativedelta import relativedelta

now = datetime.datetime.now() + relativedelta( months = +1 )
month_name = now.strftime("%B")
year = now.strftime("%Y")
url = 'http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_%s%s.pdf' % (month_name, year)
try:
response = urlfetch.Fetch(url)
except Exception, e:
logging.exception(e)
return
if response.status_code == 404:
logging.info('HTTP Error while fetching Visa Bulletin. Error Code: %s' % response.status_code)
return
util.send_log_mail('Visa Bulletin Updated', 'Visa Bulletin Updated')
util.send_log_sms('Visa Bulletin Updated')
08-09-2011, 02:23 PM
gc_usa

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

Make it work every month ;)

from google.appengine.api import urlfetch
import logging
import datetime
from dateutil.relativedelta import relativedelta

now = datetime.datetime.now() + relativedelta( months = +1 )
month_name = now.strftime("%B")
year = now.strftime("%Y")
url = 'http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_%s%s.pdf' % (month_name, year)
try:
response = urlfetch.Fetch(url)
except Exception, e:
logging.exception(e)
return
if response.status_code == 404:
logging.info('HTTP Error while fetching Visa Bulletin. Error Code: %s' % response.status_code)
return
util.send_log_mail('Visa Bulletin Updated', 'Visa Bulletin Updated')
util.send_log_sms('Visa Bulletin Updated')

I am not IT guy but if you guys get headache come see me... :) I have solution for post VB depression.
08-09-2011, 02:26 PM
michaelclarke

Alcohol can be used to celebrate and to commiserate. Let's hope that more people will be celebrating once the VB is released and we see some good movement.
08-09-2011, 02:30 PM
neospeed

are we sure about seeing sept vb today. Its already 3:30pm est. May be too late for today?
08-09-2011, 02:31 PM
vchirakala

20 more mins to go ....if it is assumed to be released at 3:50 EDT
08-09-2011, 02:32 PM
operas

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdfeb09

import webbrowser

webbrowser.open("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")

will automatically open the link in your default browser.. !!

:) Did'nt know about webbrowser..Thanks !
Anyway its of no use to me when I work on the terminal most of the time.. and dont use a regular window manager..

Tri-monitor setup with Awesome window manager (http://awesome.naquadah.org) and plenty of mrxvt terminals is how I work ;)
08-09-2011, 02:32 PM
memk26

Quote:

Originally Posted by neospeed

are we sure about seeing sept vb today. Its already 3:30pm est. May be too late for today?

I rescheduled my doctor appointment for next friday :)
08-09-2011, 02:32 PM
rahil1

where is visa bulletin???

My priority date is 05/02/2007...I cannot take it anymore
08-09-2011, 02:33 PM
jackbrown_890

lets have a QBlog drinking party....BYOB
08-09-2011, 02:33 PM
Zoroark

Agree!

Quote:

Originally Posted by neospeed

are we sure about seeing sept vb today. Its already 3:30pm est. May be too late for today?

Will know in about 30 minutes. Don't think they will release after 4 EST.
08-09-2011, 02:38 PM
gc_usa

bulletin is out date is same :(

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