EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Spec

I think we r on same page overall but there are some nuances where there may be different thoughts...

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Originally Posted by Spectator

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they are orders from higher up the chain of command.
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I think it only matters a little bit. The chain of command here is much weaker except in Military.

I am far more cynical about it. As Ron Gotcher would say "USCIS have a long record of minimizing and disguising the true extent of the backlog (mainly from Congress)". It has suited USCIS in the past to keep cases at Field Offices, so they can minimize the numbers.
Agree

The fact that the new Management will no longer put up with this situation and are trying to be more transparent is a ray of hope.
The objective may not necessarily be transparency. Its one thing that is may be useful to people like u and me. But the objective could be strategic immigration. I don't know ...

I suspect they are also being prodded by DOS on this issue.

Absolutely yes.

I don't think there is the manpower to conduct a full Inventory of cases that remain at the LO.
Thats not true. Its a good excuse though.

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Teddy, I think Spec has a point there. I have seen Ron making very wild allegations and is sometimes seems to blame USCIS too much for nothing. Your point about EB1A/B is valid however still I think Spec's logic still applies to those two sub categories. I don't think that the usage there is so low that 10% approval rate is possible.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec he is talking about EB1 A & B only, if this is his recent experience that only say 10% I140's are being approved in this category it might correlate well with the Trackitt trend. EB1 cases take longer than EB2 or EB3. EB1C is still the larger consumer of EB1.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Just for interest, the denial rates on Trackitt in FY2010 were :

EB1A - 19.3%
EB1B - 2.7%
EB1C - 2.5%

The fact that EB1A is much higher than the others should be no surprise. It is the only sub-category that can be self-sponsored and I think we have all seen some applications bound to fail.

Maybe we just have to agree to disagree on this one. :)

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Thanks Spec for your feedback. I do agree with your view about EB1-A. Trackitt however is not good in measuring denials people would tend to not update that case itself.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks Spec for your feedback. I do agree with your view about EB1-A. Trackitt however is not good in measuring denials people would tend to not update that case itself.

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I'm not disagreeing. If they were denied, most would simply remove their profile or simply not update it. The point of the post was to show that Trackitt does not reflect Ron's figure at all, not that they should be relied on.

As an aside, you should read some of the AAO decisions for EB1A. One that amused me was a denial for someone claiming to have Extraordinary Ability in the art of Paper Silhouette making. It shows how diverse the category can be.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm not disagreeing. If they were denied, most would simply remove their profile or simply not update it. The point of the post was to show that Trackitt does not reflect Ron's figure at all, not that they should be relied on.

As an aside, you should read some of the AAO decisions for EB1A. One that amused me was a denial for someone claiming to have Extraordinary Ability in the art of Paper Silhouette making. It shows how diverse the category can be.

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Spec neither Trackitt’s figure nor what Ron is saying is true the truth probably lies in between. I have seen people filing both an EB2-NIW and EB1-A just to be safe. I agree with some of the EB1-A cases can be really interesting. EB1 is definitely what holds the key to our fortunes lets keep finding all avenues to estimate / guesstimate this.

10% acceptance of EB1A and EB1B seems really low to me. In fact, I would have more thought of the denial rate to be around 10 - 20%. I can tell of 5 cases in EB1A category that I have seen getting approved in the past 3 years. For 2 of those cases, the credentials were very strong (in my opinion) and they got approved very quickly (~few weeks) without any RFEs. The other 3 cases were more of the type of borderline cases. As we all know that EB1A & B has requires lot of qualitative judgment like publications (how to judge how good the publication is), citation of one's work (how many number of places one's work needs to be cited), etc. A couple of the above cases got RFE's and took relatively longer time (almost 1 year) but got approved at the end. I am not sure whether Ron's 10% acceptance of EB1A/B is a recent phenomena or not but from what I have seen, the % will be probably much higher in the previous years.

veni thx for the link

Ron's 10% approval seems exaggerated, hope he is right and we get 25-30k sofad from EB1 :D

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Originally Posted by Spectator

haripathhi,

I think the pertinent part of your quote is:


That leaves all the cases that have NOT had an interview at the Local Offices and therefore invisible.

The January Inventory suggested that Local Offices are only interviwing those people within a few months of the current Cut Off Date. That leaves potentially thousands and tens of thousands of cases that remain invisible. The actual number is unknowable and will only be seen over the course of several years.

It will be interesting to see how many more are added in the 3 month period to the next USCIS Inventory.

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I don't see basis for this assumption, at least for EB1/EB2, since we have all PERM data available on DOL website from 2000-2010 and also i140 information from USCIS dash board for last couple of years in additionUSCIS pending inventory reports, Am i missing some thing here:confused:

Hi Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the EB2/EB3 numbers. I have been following this forum for a while and finally decided to join you guys! I have a few questions for the gurus:

1. I had read SOFAD projections for EB2 to be in the 25-35k range. Are those estimates,still accurate? I had read about higher EB1/EB5 approvals and a lot of porting from EB3-EB2 might knock down the SOFAD.
2. If the H.R. 4 is enacted into a law, 55k visas might get infused in the EB category. The effective date is listed as 10/01/2011. Would these visas be distributed amongst the EB categories like other EB visas (28.6% for EB1/2/3)?
3. Any idea how the DV Lottery numbers are alloted? Quarterly/one time during the fiscal year?
4. My PD is 02/2008. I have no hopes of anything happening this year. Can I expect my case to be current in 2012?

Thanks!
ChampU

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Hi Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the EB2/EB3 numbers. I have been following this forum for a while and finally decided to join you guys! I have a few questions for the gurus:

1. I had read SOFAD projections for EB2 to be in the 25-35k range. Are those estimates,still accurate? I had read about higher EB1/EB5 approvals and a lot of porting from EB3-EB2 might knock down the SOFAD.
2. If the H.R. 4 is enacted into a law, 55k visas might get infused in the EB category. The effective date is listed as 10/01/2011. Would these visas be distributed amongst the EB categories like other EB visas (28.6% for EB1/2/3)?
3. Any idea how the DV Lottery numbers are alloted? Quarterly/one time during the fiscal year?
4. My PD is 02/2008. I have no hopes of anything happening this year. Can I expect my case to be current in 2012?

Thanks!
ChampU

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ChampU,
Your profile show your PD as 01/01/2001:confused:

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it. :o

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChampU

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it. :o

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

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I second that, its tough to read the "registration image" that comes up. Even I had to do it more than a couple of times to get it right....just a thought for the moderator :).

Welcome to the forum ChampU!

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Originally Posted by ChampU

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it. :o

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

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OK, unless there is dramatic change in the demand(increase/decrease) or change in the law( both are unknown) you can count on rule of 5 for EB2, i.e you should be able to file by Sept 2013.:)

ChampU pls read teh header as well as 4-5 pages back into the thread to get an idea of latest thoughts on this thread.

Regarding H.R. 4, yes if enacted it seems that it will bump up EB quota by DV lottery quota overall. So obviously EB1/2/3 all get benefited. Not sure how DV visa is allocated. I would imagine must be applied evently and no question of spillover given they know exactly who is selected.

Regarding your date - it has some chance of being current in 2012. But 2013 seems more realistic.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Hi Guys,

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the EB2/EB3 numbers. I have been following this forum for a while and finally decided to join you guys! I have a few questions for the gurus:

1. I had read SOFAD projections for EB2 to be in the 25-35k range. Are those estimates,still accurate? I had read about higher EB1/EB5 approvals and a lot of porting from EB3-EB2 might knock down the SOFAD.
2. If the H.R. 4 is enacted into a law, 55k visas might get infused in the EB category. The effective date is listed as 10/01/2011. Would these visas be distributed amongst the EB categories like other EB visas (28.6% for EB1/2/3)?
3. Any idea how the DV Lottery numbers are alloted? Quarterly/one time during the fiscal year?
4. My PD is 02/2008. I have no hopes of anything happening this year. Can I expect my case to be current in 2012?

Thanks!
ChampU

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Regarding the difficulties, unfortunately the functionality is out of the box. So not sure how it can be improved. Would appreciate if anybody has any advice.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChampU

I had a tough time reading the "registration image" . Had to do it twice (weekend brain freeze) and since the PD was optional, I kind of gave up on it. :o

My actual PD is 02/22/2008.

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Originally Posted by haripathhi

I second that, its tough to read the "registration image" that comes up. Even I had to do it more than a couple of times to get it right....just a thought for the moderator :).

Welcome to the forum ChampU!

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Originally Posted by parsvnath

Q, Spec and Teddy,

I think we are underestimating the mag of EB3 to EB2 porting (6000). My company (which I am not stating due to privacy reasons with about 2000 people) recently had a policy change to allow EB3 to EB2 porting due to retention issues. About 50 people from my company (who are EB3) are now eligible to convert into EB2 and they have initiated the labor cert for those people. I think EB3 to EB2 conversion should be atleast 20000 people. I arrived the figure of 20000 based on companies similar to mine and having an extrapolation factor. I am in ATL and already know 3 consulting companies who are converting people due to retention issues.

Thanks!

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FYI - Interesting article about EB3 to EB2 porting with current employer posted in other forums

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Originally Posted by veni001

I don't see basis for this assumption, at least for EB1/EB2, .........
Am i missing some thing here:confused:

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Sorry for the delay in replying. I somewhat misread your post.

The comment was made in the context of why there may be more future Porting from EB3 other than India, so it was implicitly talking about EB3 only.

So it is not an issue for EB1 or EB2-Current. So far, EB2-Retrogressed sees little effect from LO cases being added to the Inventory.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Sorry for the delay in replying. I somewhat misread your post.

The comment was made in the context of why there may be more future Porting from EB3 other than India, so it was implicitly talking about EB3 only.

So it is not an issue for EB1 or EB2-Current. So far, EB2-Retrogressed sees little effect from LO cases being added to the Inventory.

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Spec, and All,
Thanks for clarifying me on this; in any event, we have been counting ROW porting as part of new EB2ROW demand. Here is my reason why ROW porting may not be very significant than what it is now…

USCIS Inventory shows about 49k ROW- i485 (EB2&EB3) pending between June 2005 and July 2007 as of 10-01-2010.

Let’s look at the PERM and EB2 approval data for ROW since 2005 not including M&P…

2005:
ROW PERM Certified – 3,536
EB2 –i485 approval – 16,501

2006:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,858
EB2 –i485 approval – 14,420

2007:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,430
EB2 –i485 approval – 28,892

2008:
ROW PERM Certified – 23,890
EB2 –i485 approval – 44,934

2009:
ROW PERM Certified – 13,597
EB2 –i485 approval – 30,123

2010:
ROW PERM Certified – 30,644
EB2 –i485 approval – 24,427

Since i485 approvals in 2005 exceed the total projected demand, even if we assume all ROW PERMs as EB2 only result in 8K i485 (3,536*2.2=7,780) only, let's assume it as backlog reduction and take year 2005 out as an exception for our calculations.

Now let’s see all ROW PERM approvals between 2006 -2010 = 41.8k+41.4k+23.8k+13.5k+30.6k =151.4k

Let’s assume all certified PERMs will make it to i140 and apply15% denial rate at i140 stage which gives us about 129k ROW i140 (EB2&EB3) approvals.

Let’s apply our factor 2.2 for all approved i140 gives us 284k i485 applications, we need to factor EB2-NIW to this number to derive the actual i485 for ROW (EB2&EB3), let’s assume it as 3k per year which gives us about 300k i485 applications for ROW (EB2&EB3) between 2006-10.

Now let’s see all ROW EB2 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =14.4k+28.8k+44.9k+30.1k+24.4k ~=143k
Now let’s see all ROW EB3 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =44.9k+37.1k+29.8k+26.3k+24.3k ~=163k

Note: We know that NVC got about 120k EB3 cases but most of them are 245(i) cases.

So if we add all of them (49k+143k+163k) we are looking at 355k i485 for ROW-EB2/3 (not including M&P) between 2006-10. Since backlog centers are closed long time back, I don’t think any EB3 ROW with priority date before May 2005 is still waiting to apply for i485.

Conclusion: I don’t believe there will be many EB3 ROW cases (or the dark demand) at the LO level to add to EB3 ROW inventory, except CP case or PWMB cases.

great post! thanks veni.

p.s. I am working on different scenarios. should post tonight.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec, and All,
Thanks for clarifying me on this; in any event, we have been counting ROW porting as part of new EB2ROW demand. Here is my reason why ROW porting may not be very significant than what it is now…

USCIS Inventory shows about 49k ROW- i485 (EB2&EB3) pending between June 2005 and July 2007 as of 10-01-2010.

Let’s look at the PERM and EB2 approval data for ROW since 2005 not including M&P…

2005:
ROW PERM Certified – 3,536
EB2 –i485 approval – 16,501

2006:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,858
EB2 –i485 approval – 14,420

2007:
ROW PERM Certified – 41,430
EB2 –i485 approval – 28,892

2008:
ROW PERM Certified – 23,890
EB2 –i485 approval – 44,934

2009:
ROW PERM Certified – 13,597
EB2 –i485 approval – 30,123

2010:
ROW PERM Certified – 30,644
EB2 –i485 approval – 24,427

Since i485 approvals in 2005 exceed the total projected demand, even if we assume all ROW PERMs as EB2 only result in 8K i485 (3,536*2.2=7,780) only, let's assume it as backlog reduction and take year 2005 out as an exception for our calculations.

Now let’s see all ROW PERM approvals between 2006 -2010 = 41.8k+41.4k+23.8k+13.5k+30.6k =151.4k

Let’s assume all certified PERMs will make it to i140 and apply15% denial rate at i140 stage which gives us about 129k ROW i140 (EB2&EB3) approvals.

Let’s apply our factor 2.2 for all approved i140 gives us 284k i485 applications, we need to factor EB2-NIW to this number to derive the actual i485 for ROW (EB2&EB3), let’s assume it as 3k per year which gives us about 300k i485 applications for ROW (EB2&EB3) between 2006-10.

Now let’s see all ROW EB2 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =14.4k+28.8k+44.9k+30.1k+24.4k ~=143k
Now let’s see all ROW EB3 i485 approvals between 2006-2010 =44.9k+37.1k+29.8k+26.3k+24.3k ~=163k

Note: We know that NVC got about 120k EB3 cases but most of them are 245(i) cases.

So if we add all of them (49k+143k+163k) we are looking at 355k i485 for ROW-EB2/3 (not including M&P) between 2006-10. Since backlog centers are closed long time back, I don’t think any EB3 ROW with priority date before May 2005 is still waiting to apply for i485.

Conclusion: I don’t believe there will be many EB3 ROW cases (or the dark demand) at the LO level to add to EB3 ROW inventory, except CP case or PWMB cases.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

So if we add all of them (49k+143k+163k) we are looking at 355k i485 for ROW-EB2/3 (not including M&P) between 2006-10. Since backlog centers are closed long time back, I don’t think any EB3 ROW with priority date before May 2005 is still waiting to apply for i485.

Conclusion: I don’t believe there will be many EB3 ROW cases (or the dark demand) at the LO level to add to EB3 ROW inventory, except CP case or PWMB cases.

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Veni,

Other than possibly a few more 245i cases, I totally agree that there are very few cases before 2005 still to appear. They should have been added into the January Inventory already.

The problem is with "dark demand" post August 2005.

If you look at the January 2011 EB3-ROW Inventory, it has increased by 7,198 over the October 2010 Inventory.

When further analyzed, there are actually 8,362 pure additions. Then you have to account for reductions that would be expected due to Approvals in Q1 2011 (I think it is nearer 4k than the 6.5k than could have been made). In fact the Inventory only shows a reduction of around 500 in the period that was Current, so there must also have been a further 3,500 additions.

The real additions to the EB3-ROW Inventory as a result of LO cases is therefore 8,362 + 3500 = 11,862.

The adjusted October Inventory thus becomes 40,429 + 11,862 = 52,291. That is an increase of 29%.

However, further analysis shows that nearly half of the 8,362 additions took place in the period May to August 2005, just ahead of the current Cut Off Date for EB3-ROW.

That leads to the conclusion that the LO are not yet interviewing many people with PD later than August 2005.

They will only do so as the Cut Off Date for EB3-ROW advances. That still leaves cases with PD in 2006 and 2007 to become visible.

It is almost certain that there are substantial numbers of further LO cases to appear as the interviews are conducted. Actually, potentially frightening numbers.

A back calculation from the number of cases that were probably pending just after July 2007 (July 2007 contributed 320,000 I-485 cases alone - USCIS figure) and subsequent approvals also shows that there is a very large gap compared to the present USCIS Inventory.

Something to ponder on.

I wish to reserve judgement on the subject until we have seen some more Inventories - probably a year's worth. I do not intend to comment on it further, because it is not relevant to this year's calculation.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

Other than possibly a few more 245i cases, I totally agree that there are very few cases before 2005 still to appear. They should have been added into the January Inventory already.

The problem is with "dark demand" post August 2005.
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Something to ponder on.

I wish to reserve judgement on the subject until we have seen some more Inventories - probably a year's worth. I do not intend to comment on it further, because it is not relevant to this year's calculation.

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Thanks Spec,
I totally agree with you, we may have to wait until Q4 and see how EB3 ROW inventory changes.

I assume all these EB3 cases need a Labor approval, that's the reason my analysis is based on Labor approvals.

I am not sure the chances of NVC inventory to start showing up(as the cases are being slowly transferred) as part of USCIS inventory.

Let's move on...

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Originally Posted by veni001

Thanks Spec,
I totally agree with you, we may have to wait until Q4 and see how EB3 ROW inventory changes.

I assume all these EB3 cases need a Labor approval, that's the reason my analysis is based on Labor approvals.

I am not sure the chances of NVC inventory to start showing up(as the cases are being slowly transferred) as part of USCIS inventory.

Let's move on...

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I don't think NVC cases are applicable to LO or the USCIS Inventory. LO are part of USCIS and only deal with AOS cases.

NVC cases go to a Foreign Consulate for interview under CP.

Agreed ...... :) It's bloody complicated, isn't it.

Friends, I must acknolwedge & apologize for a huge mistake I made when I posted my last model. The mistake was to assume wrong EB2 ROW demand and Same Year Approvals in 2011. Because of this I forecasted the most pessimistic scenario.

Now I have corrrected both those mistakes and the picture is not that bad anymore. Please check out the updated header.

With this update we are tossing two new factors which we think will be quite crucial going ahead.
a) Rate of 485 filings for EB2-ROW compared to previous year.
b) Same Year Approval of 485 filed in 2010-11.

These two factors will determine the SOFAD. As of now it seems like the SOFAD will be 23.5K (20K towards backlog) and will move dates to Nov 2006. For details pls read the header.

Once again apologize for the huge upset I pulled last week because of this oversight. Good luck!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends, I must acknolwedge & apologize for a huge mistake I made when I posted my last model. The mistake was to assume wrong EB2 ROW demand and Same Year Approvals in 2011. Because of this I forecasted the most pessimistic scenario.

Now I have corrrected both those mistakes and the picture is not that bad anymore. Please check out the updated header.

With this update we are tossing two new factors which we think will be quite crucial going ahead.
a) Rate of 485 filings for EB2-ROW compared to previous year.
b) Same Year Approval of 485 filed in 2010-11.

These two factors will determine the SOFAD. As of now it seems like the SOFAD will be 23.5K (20K towards backlog) and will move dates to Nov 2006. For details pls read the header.

Once again apologize for the huge upset I pulled last week because of this oversight. Good luck!

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Thanks much. It gives me a light of hope personally, as my priority date is 11/29/2006. I am just hoping that it at least touches December 1st 2006. I am hope my wish is not too unrealistic.

Thanks qesehmk; I think we all will feel better with the new prediction. If I remember the numbers correctly, 'sangiano' in trackitt did some calculations/predictions where it required around 27K - 28K SOFAD for EB2-I & EB2-C PDs to move to end of Dec'06. I think your calculation results are on similar lines, meaning ~23K SOFAD will put the PD around Nov'06 by the end of FY'11.

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Originally Posted by pch053

Thanks qesehmk; I think we all will feel better with the new prediction. If I remember the numbers correctly, 'sangiano' in trackitt did some calculations/predictions where it required around 27K - 28K SOFAD for EB2-I & EB2-C PDs to move to end of Dec'06. I think your calculation results are on similar lines, meaning ~23K SOFAD will put the PD around Nov'06 by the end of FY'11.

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PCH, i too have a vested interest in this. However, I tend to be overcautious by nature. But even more so after last years' unforeseen PERM surge. Without that surge, all or most of EB2 backlog would be cleared. That PERM surge was what Don Rumsfeld used to call "unknown unknowns"!! I think we should continue to watch for such unknown unknowns.

Having said that, this year there could be a favorable unknown unknown in EB1. The trackitt EB1 data is too good to be true. 65 approvals total YTD compared to 224 in 2010. However, there are still not sufficient signs to say that the data is decisively predicting a trend. I will write a separate post on this situation.

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

Thanks much. It gives me a light of hope personally, as my priority date is 11/29/2006. I am just hoping that it at least touches December 1st 2006. I am hope my wish is not too unrealistic.

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Bidda, for you its really close. I think there is a very decent change u may get it.

Man my PD is March 2007. This wait is killing me

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends, I must acknolwedge & apologize for a huge mistake I made when I posted my last model. The mistake was to assume wrong EB2 ROW demand and Same Year Approvals in 2011. Because of this I forecasted the most pessimistic scenario.

Now I have corrrected both those mistakes and the picture is not that bad anymore. Please check out the updated header.

With this update we are tossing two new factors which we think will be quite crucial going ahead.
a) Rate of 485 filings for EB2-ROW compared to previous year.
b) Same Year Approval of 485 filed in 2010-11.

These two factors will determine the SOFAD. As of now it seems like the SOFAD will be 23.5K (20K towards backlog) and will move dates to Nov 2006. For details pls read the header.

Once again apologize for the huge upset I pulled last week because of this oversight. Good luck!

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Thanks for that update Q! You've just turned on the light at the end of the tunnel.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

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Having said that, this year there could be a favorable unknown unknown in EB1. The trackitt EB1 data is too good to be true. 65 approvals total YTD compared to 224 in 2010. However, there are still not sufficient signs to say that the data is decisively predicting a trend. I will write a separate post on this situation.

.....................

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Q,
That's right, let's hope EB1 demand goes back to 2006 or 2007 level!
Veni

Thanks a lot, Q!! So EB2-I can get around 12-14k visas..5-7k less than last year..Thats still good news..

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Thanks a lot, Q!! So EB2-I can get around 12-14k visas..5-7k less than last year..Thats still good news..

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Roughly the split of 20 between India China should be 15-5.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Roughly the split of 20 between India China should be 15-5.

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Q,
As we know that Sept 2008 PD was at Aug 2006 so PWMB should be very less or even zero until 01AUG06,except porting cases, and 20k should take us into Jan 2007?

Veni,

I think PWMB wouldn't seriously kick in until Feb-March 2007. My numbers don't include PWMB. Nov-Dec 06 is conceivable w 20K. Jan 07 would be slight stretch.

But then 20K itself is a guess. So I guess yes .. may be.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
As we know that Sept 2008 PD was at Aug 2006 so PWMB should be very less or even zero until 01AUG06,except porting cases, and 20k should take us into Jan 2007?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni,

I think PWMB wouldn't seriously kick in until Feb-March 2007. My numbers don't include PWMB. Nov-Dec 06 is conceivable w 20K. Jan 07 would be slight stretch.

But then 20K itself is a guess. So I guess yes .. may be.

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Q,
Assuming China's regular 2.8 k will clear them up to Aug 2006 then thy got only 3k pending before 1JAN2007. If our estimate is 20k then it will be 17+3(I+C). Let's hope EB1 demand will go back to at least 2007 level :)

Experts,

I have a PD 11/14/2006 EB2 India.

Currently I am on H1 so that my wife has H4 until my PD becomes current..
My wife is not included in the 485 appl.

How realistic is that my PD becomes Current in July/Aug/Sep 2011 ?

Appreciate your replies

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doodle

Experts,

I have a PD 11/14/2006 EB2 India.

Currently I am on H1 so that my wife has H4 until my PD becomes current..
My wife is not included in the 485 appl.

How realistic is that my PD becomes Current in July/Aug/Sep 2011 ?

Appreciate your replies

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Doodle,
I think you have 90-10 chance by Sept 2011.

Friends ...

If you can afford the time, read this.

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastor...4/07-56774.pdf

This is very illuminating and can have significant change in EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends ...

If you can afford the time, read this.

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastor...4/07-56774.pdf

This is very illuminating and can have significant change in EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals.

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Very interesting, I was wondering about the case behind Kazarian Guidance memo(08/18/2010).

Guys ... here is another way to look at our predictions and its confirmation. This is quite crude .... but just like we did last year... its always good to try to see if from multiple angles our theories fit together.

12 month rolling 140s 73000
Less IC Labors 39,822
Less EB3 ROW 29,822
Less 5% Denials 28,331
485 Filings 62,328
Less 5% Denials 59,212
EB1 + EB2 ROW MP quota 74,000
IC Quota 6,000
SOFAD 20,788

Which is exactly what our model says. Since labors also include conversions .... dont need to take out them from this number.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Very interesting, I was wondering about the case behind Kazarian Guidance memo(08/18/2010).

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veni.... that's an interesting topic. I am still trying to understand and verify. But in nutshell ... I think this should at least slow down new EB1 EB2 applications approvals. It could further increase denial rate which is a good thing for backlogged countries. However today we don't see EB1 backlog buildup or EB1 denials. Trackitt data is not good on that front.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Guys ...
.......
......
EB1 + EB2 ROW MP quota 74,000
IC Quota 6,000
SOFAD 20,788

Which is exactly what our model says. Since labors also include conversions .... don't need to take out them from this number.



veni.... that's an interesting topic. I am still trying to understand and verify. But in nutshell ... I think this should at least slow down new EB1 EB2 applications approvals. It could further increase denial rate which is a good thing for backlogged countries. However today we don't see EB1 backlog buildup or EB1 denials. Trackitt data is not good on that front.

Agree

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Q,
You mean the estimated demand, am i correct?

Veni

Est demand using that approach would be 59K for EB1+EB2ROW. 74K is the quota for those two combined. So FA+FD = 15K. Then you add EB2IC quota of 5.5K .... thats your total SOFAD = 20.5K !

Makes sense?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
You mean the estimated demand, am i correct?

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According to the info i got from my friends who are working in Big indian outsource companies it is hard in these days to convense the management to apply for EB1.
Some one can shed some light on this if you guys have any contacts