July 2015 Bulletin is out. No movement for EB2I . 01 Oct 2008.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2015.html
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July 2015 Bulletin is out. No movement for EB2I . 01 Oct 2008.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2015.html
Does that mean .. it will stay at the date rest of this USCIS year for EB2I?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I am wondering if this has to do more with the slow rate of approvals? Not seeing many approvals especially from TSC. I hope they will move forward in the next two bulletins.Quote:
Originally Posted by cursedguy
With a Nov 2009 PD I was hoping to get it next year, but now even that looks doubtful!
Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?
I don't believe the doors are shut for this FY. It just means that they are still waiting to figure out how much spillover will come to EB2-I. We should still see some movement in Aug and Sept.
The problem though is that a good chunk of Medical RFEs were submitted in July last year. All of those are now expired and folks are now looking at another RFE for Medical (and the associated hassle and expense) whenever the time comes. Frustrating so say the least!
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I agree.
We've seen CO wait until August to move the date as recently as FY2013 (when the date moved from 01SEP04 to 01JAN08).
I think he wants to see how EB2-WW approvals develop over the next month.
As you've said, the problem with that strategy is the expiration of Medicals submitted last year.
any ideas, when will it be released ? will July and April be released together at the same time ;-?
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory
Agree with Spec and imdeng. There will be forward movement in Aug and Sep. I still believe EB2I would end up getting 10k total visas this FY and that would translate to a movement to May 2009 by the ending of this the FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
From Fragomen.
Not good, if true.Quote:
July 2015 Visa Bulletin: EB-3 Philippines Unavailable; Advancements for EB-2 and EB-5 China, EB-3 Worldwide and India
06/10/2015
According to the State Department’s July Visa Bulletin, the EB-3 subcategory for professionals and skilled workers will become unavailable for the Philippines next month. EB-3 will advance one week for India, to February 1, 2004; will remain unchanged for China, at September 1, 2011; and will advance by six weeks for all other countries, to April 1, 2015.
The EB-3 other worker subcategory will advance one week for India, to February 1, 2004, and by six weeks for most countries, to April 1, 2015. It will remain unchanged for China, at January 1, 2006, and will become unavailable for the Philippines.
EB-2 China will advance by four months, to October 1, 2013, and EB-2 India will remain at October 1, 2008.
EB-5 China – which became subject to a cut-off date for the first time earlier this year – will advance by four months, to September 1, 2013.
Employment-Based Immigrant Visa Projections for the Coming Months
State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years. Priority date advancements for EB-2 China will be slow for the remainder of this fiscal year.
EB-3 China is likely to remain at its current cut-off date for the rest of the year, while EB-3 India will remain at its current pace of one to two weeks of advancement per month. EB-3 Philippines could become available again in September if unused visa numbers from other Philippines subcategories become available. For all other countries, EB-3 is likely to advance by several months through this summer.
EB-5 China is expected to advance further over the coming months.
I still don't fully understand what is going on with EB3, since EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt are still quite low. I was (and still am really) expecting some FA to EB3-I. Surely EB3-P can't have used that many and still stayed within the 7% limit.
http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresourc...erts&news=3173
Spec:
Now that the EB2I date is not going to advance any more for this year, will EB2I retrogress at the beginning of the new year? Or will October, 2008 be the absolute bottom for future years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
As I said previously, I don't entirely believe that will be the case for the remainder of the year. I still hope to see further movement in the last 2 months.
As for next FY, that depends on the strategy CO adopts. He's chopped and changed over the years.
The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.
Thanks for the response, Spec. When Fragomen puts something on their website, most of the time it is fairly close. When I asked you the question, I was thinking may be EB3I will receive some spill across, and thus the porting pressure on EB2I will lessen to some extent, resulting in October 2008 as a new baseline for the next year which can be supported by the quarterly allocation. In case of any retrogression, hope it will not be as bad as this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The recent strategy has been to use the initial 3k in Oct-Nov of the FY. Hence whatever date Sep 2015 will end at (lets say May 2009) will end up consuming the initial allocation. After that retrogression to a date sometime in 2006 would be the most expected outcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Typically i find that when Fragomen gets information from DOS it has always been accurate. Do not expect dates to move this year and Plan Accordingly.
This statement seems pretty simple to understand - State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years.
Its quite obvious that Eb 2 India will have negligible spillover due to excessive demand in EB2 ROW.
I have now waited 6 years for my PD of June 17 2009 to even get EAD. Bunkered in to wait 12 more months until June 2016.
Please move the discussion to appropriate thread. Dates have been moving to 2009 and back for the last 2 years and it may very well be the case for the next 3-4 years. I believe EB3 - EB2 porting is one of the causes for this. USCIS needs to stop allowing to keep the PD while porting from EB3 to EB2. I am not saying it is fair to the eb3 folks waiting in the queue for ages, but logically it does not make sense that experience gained while in eb3 queue should allow people to port into eb2 keeping the eb3 PD. USCIS should get rid of porting from eb3 to eb2 while keeping the eb3 PD if they want to seriously make any movement for the next few years.
Though not related, they did get rid of labor substitution in 2007. I believe they should do something similar in this case too.
This discussion is not about whether eb2 cases are genuine or not and how eb2 suffers at the hands of eb1 (genuine or not).
I am wondering if CO is so certain about the EB2I not moving this year then why was it not put in the comments section of VB?
Exactly. I feel that Fragomen has derived the conclusion out of COs previous comments. There has been no official statement regarding no further movement either in the comments section of the VB or via other channels like AILA.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Don't underestimate Fragomen. Last year in June first week, they released similar news about visa dates movement. That time, no other website (AILA, etc.) had reported it, neither did the prior visa bulletin mentioned about it. Looking back, their news was fairly accurate and played out over the next 2-3 months.
We shall see what happens. All indicators point to the fact that there will be forward movement in the remainder of this FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Hi Spec and YT, what are your prognoses for EB3I? Still expecting FA of 3K to 4K?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,imdeng and Jagan:
Thanks for your replies.
We all know that CO didn't communicate anything officially regarding end of FY movement(worst or otherwise) for EB2I. Any upcoming meeting by AILA with CO? Do AILA meet CO every month or so?
can this be the reason for not moving the dates?
Last year July bulletin moved to Sept 2008. This year in June itself it moved to Oct 2008, now if they had moved the dates at same pace, then SO would have be exhausted by the time it reached FY end, say Aug-Sept 2015 and then they need to retrogress for just one month and move it again to 2009 to utilize the new FY quota visas. Instead of this, they stalled it for this month to be in sync with last yr movement and move it accordingly so that it can hold moving into new FY. could this be a valid reason?
No official reason was given thus far. It's all conjectures until official from CO/DoS.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
How frequently do you update this data Spec. This is very critical part of information and I would request you to update it weekly if possible. The EB2ROW approval number is the most vital piece of information and I am thinking it will end up being a perfect sine wave that peaked in April.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
The data is updated several times per day.
I did give advance notice of the break in continuity.
The short break was because I was out of the country and did not have access to my files.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks a lot for the effort. It really provides very useful data.
YT and Spectator --
My PD is Oct/2004 - eb3-I. Just wondering when the dates would be current.
Appreciate your input.
I have same PD and I have the same question.Quote:
Originally Posted by user_009
For sure it will be in FY16. If you see my earlier posts, this is what we predicted more than a year now. It’s in 2 stages, in the first stage the EB3-ROW should get current and stay current from there on. This is happening now, for the last 3 months EB3-ROW is technically current and moving towards ‘C’. In second stage we will see not having much demand of EB3-ROW to meet the yearly EB3 quota of 40k. This we will see in early FY16 and at the end of FY16 we will see EB3-ROW giving huge horizontal SO that makes EB3-I clearing existing backlogs quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by user_009
Someone posted in trackitt.com that he got medical RFE for the PD 06/30/2009. Is this good sign?
Thanks YT!Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
No one could tell. Last year they sent RFEs as far as Oct 2009 PDs but nothing happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by surya1975
Looks like ALL of the rfe's are from Nebraska Service Center for EB3-I. has anyone noticed rfe's from Texas Service Center ?Quote:
Originally Posted by surya1975
I think that's not EB3-I. That might be EB2-I.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
from oh-law firm, this is really disappointing..
06/15/2015: EB-2 India Visa Bulletin Prediction by Oppenheim of DOS
AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim, Unexpectedly, during the past few months, the EB-2 demand for worldwide increased more than doubled, and therefore the EB-2 India cut-off date had to hold steady in July 2015. Should this trend continues, Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 India may not move forward during August and September 2015. Ouch!
YT - Is there a possibility for EB3 India to move in the coming Two Visa bulletins ? If so how much ?
We should get some SO, have been waiting for a decade now. Thanks!
As per the current trend EB3-ROW would not be able to use their yearly quota in 2015. Isn't EB3-I supposed to receive some SO in 2015 FY? Why haven't we received SO yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by Need GC soon
This from Ron Gotcher for EB1, EB2 and EB3. He normally reproduces the text as it was given by AILA.
http://www.immigration-information.c....18172/page-38
Even at this stage, CO does not seem to expect EB3-I to receive FA within EB3, as he has stubbornly stuck to his forecast of 1-2 weeks per month. The fact that EB3-ROW is likely to stop moving forward in FY2016, then possibly retrogress at a later stage suggests fairly healthy demand.Quote:
Here are some of the highlights from this month's liaison meeting with Charlie Oppenheim:
Employment-Based First and Second Preference Categories.
EB-1 and EB-2 worldwide is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.
Charlie anticipates continuing forward movement in EB-2 China, but at a slower pace through this fiscal year.
As a result of the advancement of EB-2 India earlier this year, advancement in this category is expected to slow as we approach the end of the fiscal year, primarily due to EB-3 upgrades.
Unexpectedly, demand for EB-2 worldwide has more than doubled over the past few months, causing the EB-2 India cut-off date to hold steady in July.
Unless there is a significant decline in EB-2 worldwide demand, Charlie does not anticipate any forward movement in EB-2 India for the rest of this fiscal year.
Employment-Based Third Preference.
Charlie expects EB-3 worldwide to reach the summer of 2015 by the end of this fiscal year and expects that the cut-off date will hold steady for some time before deciding whether some other type of corrective action is required for the next fiscal year.
The EB-3 China cut-off date is expected to remain the same through the rest of the fiscal year.
EB-3 India is expected to advance by one to two weeks.
EB-3 Mexico will continue to follow EB-3 worldwide.
One of the most dramatic actions for July is that the EB-3 Philippines and "other worker" categories will become unavailable, and will likely remain so through this fiscal year.
QUESTION 1: Because the worldwide EB-3 category has advanced so rapidly since March 2015, is there any indication when corrective action may be required?
ANSWER: I believe that the initial corrective action will begin no later than October, and that will be holding the cut-off date steady for several months. I estimate that it takes at least five months from the day an applicant files their adjustment application until USCIS has finalized all required processing and requests a number. Therefore, I will not see the impact of the May cut-off date movement until October, June movement until November, etc.
It is extremely hard to predict how quickly the level of demand would start to exceed my monthly targets for FY2016 number use. Should the level of demand begin to exceed the targeted level, then further corrective action would be considered.
This is mind boggling, to say the least. What EB3RoW demand is he looking at that would require holding the forecast for EB3I to 1-2 weeks per month? Unless trackitt sampling is way off this year, approvable EB3RoW demand should still render an FA to EB3I.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
What could be going on? Has USCIS shared the April inventory with CO? Or an accurate one at that?
I am also confused. All along it was predicted that there would be excess by end of Aug/Sep 2015. We hoped some SO this year in ranges from 1000 to 5000. Now it seems they might waste some visas in EB3 this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by perestroika