EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Andy Garcia

Spectator,

I still can't understand the reasoning behind EB1 and EB2-ROW spillover estimates on the front page. EB1 spillover seems too high and EB2-ROW seems too low. For EB1 I understand the Kazarian effect but in the years before it the spillover wasn't as high as the estimate. Also, no one seems to take into account that EB2-ROW PERM (approved) applications have had 43% reduction over last year i.e. 2012 compared to 2011.

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Andy,

I'll try to explain my reasoning. You don't have to agree with it.

EB1

In FY2011, EB1 had 25.2k approvals. It is likely this was artificially low due to the delay introduced by the Kazarian ruling. As a result, it is likely that some EB1 cases were backlogged and rolled in to FY2012.

In FY2012, EB1 had 39.4k approvals. It is at least possible that this number is artificially high due to the rollover from FY2011.

My guess for EB1 approvals in FY2013 is 35k. Normally that would result in 5k spillover. Due to visas allocated to EB1 from the extra FB visas, that becomes 10k.

It is a guess. The official information on EB1 is non-existent. Trackitt is a slightly unreliable source because:

a) EB1 approvals can be "lumpy".
b) There are very few non Indian approvals.
c) The Indian approvals are mainly EB1C.

FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. No-one knows what a "normal" year looks like. We might speculate that the numbers will be lower than the 41k seen in both FY2009 and FY2010. I agree that there is some chance of approvals being higher than I am assuming.

Overall EB1 approvals are currently running lower on Trackitt than the same time last year (but there are very few non Indian approvals). EB1-I approvals are currently running at the same rate as last year. On Trackitt, EB1-I approvals account for 87% of approvals. In real life, last year, EB1-I accounted for 24% of approvals.

EB2-ROW

Approvals for EB2-ROW (and EB2-Philippines) have been extremely high so far compared to a normal year. Even if they now progress at a more normal rate, they will probably exceed the allocation. There is some risk that they will use more than I am assuming. Equally, there is a risk they will use a lower amount.

I think you are misunderstanding the EB2-ROW PERM figures for 2012. They do not represent a full calendar year.

a) Only FY2012 PERM approvals are included. This totally excludes October-December 2012 PD.
b) Because of PERM processing times, the figure only includes PDs for January-June 2012 and part of July 2012.

The 9.3k only represents little over 50% of what the final figure might be. That compares to the 2011 figure to date of 17.0k.

The 2012 figures appear to be very similar to 2011. Only time will give the true answer. They certainly do not represent a drop of 43%.

Thank you Spec and I see that the DD is now updated with these additional numbers..

Cheers,

For the EB2IC cases with PDs in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially Q4), remember that it is in your best interest that the spillover is allocated very late in FY13. This will minimize the impact of porting. If you are on the borderline, every visa counts.

Similarly for EB3IC folks, you need to be ready to pull the trigger as soon as you become current.

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

For the EB2IC cases with PDs in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially Q4), remember that it is in your best interest that the spillover is allocated very late in FY13. This will minimize the impact of porting. If you are on the borderline, every visa counts.

Similarly for EB3IC folks, you need to be ready to pull the trigger as soon as you become current.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by venkat

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

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Assuming the porter has already filed their paperwork, the EB3 porter always has an advantage over an EB2.

Here is the Perm Approvals per year for last five years and Q1 of 2013.

These are not based on the Priority Dates, these numbers are based on the FY.

Fisical Year	Total				India					China					ROW
	Certified/ Certified-Expired	WirthDrawn	Denied	Total	Certified/ Certified-Expired	WirthDrawn	Denied	Total	%	Certified/ Certified-Expired	WirthDrawn	Denied	Total	%	Certified/ Certified-Expired	WirthDrawn	Denied	Total	%
2008	49205	2063	10729	61997	16569	593	1676	18838	33.67341	3328	106	353	3787	6.76354	29308	1364	8700	39372	59.56305
2009	29502	3389	5356	38247	11387	1174	971	13532	38.59738	2112	205	199	2516	7.15884	16003	2010	4186	22199	54.24378
2010	70237	2736	8439	81412	28930	1085	1981	31996	41.18912	4052	168	338	4558	5.76904	37255	1483	6120	44858	53.04184
2011	59863	2960	10384	73207	31273	1356	2944	35573	52.24095	3448	158	425	4031	5.75982	25142	1446	7015	33603	41.99923
2012	54616	3269	5908	63793	30306	1781	2422	34509	55.48923	3354	180	251	3785	6.14106	20956	1308	3235	25499	38.36971
2013	12123	680	1532	14335	6935			6935	57.20531	791			791	6.52479	4397			4397	36.2699

The bigger difference really is that a porter can become current just by virtue of filing in EB2 & without waiting for visa bulletin dates to move.

But other than that - I don't really see much difference because most likely in the scenarios you have painted - everybody would be preadjudicated and so each person should get a GC within 485 processing timeframe (in fact much earlier since 485 would be preadjudicated).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by venkat

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

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Q. Can you please clarify

Suppose a Porter with PD in 2006 from EB3, gets approved EB2-I-140 in in February 2013 and does he get adjudicated automatically?.
Can he interfile for I-485 change(EB3 to EB2) when his PD is not current? (as of now Sep. 2004)?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

The bigger difference really is that a porter can become current just by virtue of filing in EB2 & without waiting for visa bulletin dates to move.

But other than that - I don't really see much difference because most likely in the scenarios you have painted - everybody would be preadjudicated and so each person should get a GC within 485 processing timeframe (in fact much earlier since 485 would be preadjudicated).

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The EB3 date need to be current in EB2 in order to port. In this case since EB3 date is in 2006 and EB2 date is still in 2004, clearly this is not eligible for interfiling. But as the EB2 dates advance in 2008-09 by Sep 2013, the interfiling is ok even if the applicant's PD on EB2 related 140 would be in 2011 or 12. Does that make sense?

p.s. - In my earlier comment I meant to say "possibly can become current" as opposed to "does become current".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Q. Can you please clarify

Suppose a Porter with PD in 2006 from EB3, gets approved EB2-I-140 in in February 2013 and does he get adjudicated automatically?.
Can he interfile for I-485 change(EB3 to EB2) when his PD is not current? (as of now Sep. 2004)?

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Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demand

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

The EB3 date need to be current in EB2 in order to port. In this case since EB3 date is in 2006 and EB2 date is still in 2004, clearly this is not eligible for interfiling. But as the EB2 dates advance in 2008-09 by Sep 2013, the interfiling is ok even if the applicant's PD on EB2 related 140 would be in 2011 or 12. Does that make sense?

p.s. - In my earlier comment I meant to say "possibly can become current" as opposed to "does become current".

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Hi,

I am new to this thread and had a general question. Say the visa bulletin date for EB-2 moves to Jan 15, 2009 - will someone with a PD of Jan 15, 2009 be considered for approval, or will it only include people with PDs Jan 14, 2009 and earlier?

Thank you!

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Originally Posted by fountainhead

Hi,

I am new to this thread and had a general question. Say the visa bulletin date for EB-2 moves to Jan 15, 2009 - will someone with a PD of Jan 15, 2009 be considered for approval, or will it only include people with PDs Jan 14, 2009 and earlier?

Thank you!

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fountainhead,

The PD must be EARLIER THAN the Cut Off Date to be considered Current. An I-485 can only be approved if it is Current.

In your example, Jan 15, 2009 PD would NOT be Current and could not be approved.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demand

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bvsamrat,

I have been thinking about this too.

I am not sure one case has any advantage over another. Possibly, the porting I-485 has a slightly higher chance of an RFE.

a) Both cases will probably have to be recalled from storage.

b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

c) Both have a pre-adjudicated I-485 (at least up to July 2007). The only difference is the interfiling (requesting a visa under EB2), which doesn't involve any extra adjudication of the I-485.

d) Requesting a new visa number in IVAMS is instantaneous if Current and takes no more time than using IVAMS to use a visa allocated at the time of pre-adjudication.

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

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Spec,

Could you please elaborate the above statement with respect to non-porters who filed their I-485 ? Do we get our visa number via IVAMS once we are current? My guess is the spill-over allocation is paper based.

I think visa number allocation after pre-adjudication will go strictly by priority date. What is your take?

Spec, the very thought of the repeat of last year worries me, as my PD of Aug 2007 got run over due to this random approval strategy then. Hope it does not happen again to me and anyone else.

I hope CO takes a sensible approach in allocating or making sure USCIS grants GC based on Priority Dates vs any other logic. He should be fair to people who are waiting in the line longer...

First he should determine the date he is going to push the PDs, then get to that date logically in the last 3 months of this Financial Year (July,Aug and Sep) so that PDs in late 2009 and early 2010 don't get GC before the poor souls in 2008.

Spec,
Nice to hear the term 'low hanging fruit' after a long time..It was exactly one year back that this term was used extensively in this forum...I think it is going to start again pretty soon :-)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

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Spec. What is IBIS check? and what is the general expiry period?. If this takes time, then even general non porting EB2 2006/2007 PD guys are at disadvantage compared to latest filed 2008 Pd guys who may not need IBIS check (only if I know what is IBIS?)

[QUOTE=Spectator;33056]bvsamrat,

I b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

Based on the procedure listed below it appears that DOS will tell USCIS which per-adjudicated cases get visa (GC) first:

If USCIS requests an immigrant visa number for a case that is not current, the request is moved to the "pending" file with the DOS. Data from this pending file is used by the DOS to calculate the appropriate cutoff dates for the backlogged categories in the Visa Bulletin each month.

Cases placed in the pending demand category are processed as immigrant visa numbers become available. The DOS communicates with the USCIS regarding the A numbers of the cases for which visa numbers have been authorized. These cases are then processed to completion and green cards are then issued by the USCIS.

This seems to be a streamlined process, with actual visa numbers tracked, issued, and assigned to particular green card cases as part of the approval process.

Bottom line: As per this USCIS randomly picking low hanging fruits should not be the case at least going forward.

For additional details regarding this theory see Ron's "What is "per-adjudication"?

http://www.imminfo.com/News/2012-10-...udication.html

Lets hope DOS and USCIS together enforce/implement strict rule of FIFO starting this year...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Spec. What is IBIS check? and what is the general expiry period?. If this takes time, then even general non porting EB2 2006/2007 PD guys are at disadvantage compared to latest filed 2008 Pd guys who may not need IBIS check (only if I know what is IBIS?)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bvsamrat,

I b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

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IBIS (Interagency Border Inspection System) is part of the background check.

Originally it was only valid for 35 days. Subsequently it was extended to 90 days and now appears to be 180 days.

From the AFM (section 10.3)

Quote:

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(b) IBIS Checks .


The Interagency Border Inspection System (IBIS) is a multi-agency effort to improve border enforcement and facilitate inspections of applicants for admission into the United States. Its usage was recently expanded to include background investigations on persons seeking immigration benefits. A complete IBIS query also includes a concurrent check of the NCIC Hot Files. An approved NCIC check queries the following databases:


· Wants and Warrants;


· Missing Persons;


· Violent Gang and Terrorists;


· Protection Order File;


· Registered Sexual Offender;


· Secret Service Presidential Protection;


· Foreign Fugitives;


· Deported Felons; and


· Supervised Release File.


At this time, NCIC III checks are not permitted by the FBI in the benefits arena.


IBIS queries are conducted to assist law enforcement agencies to identify risks to the community and/or to national security and to prevent ineligible aliens from obtaining immigration benefits. Employees working with benefit applications in application support centers, asylum offices, district offices, and service centers, who have the required security clearances for the Interagency Border Inspection System (IBIS), and who have been trained and certified, currently conduct IBIS queries as part of the adj udication process. More specific procedural information on IBIS queries is contained in the Immigration Services Division (ISD) IBIS SOP, which is located in Appendix 10-6 of this field manual.


Note 1
Under no circumstances shall classified information or other restricted information be divulged to the applicant, petitioner, or any other unauthorized party (see Chapter 10.19 of this field manual).

Note 2
IBIS records that are not owned by USCIS are covered by the third agency rule. See Chapter 10.12(b)(4) of this field manual. IBIS records should not be disclosed to individuals without proper legal authorization.

(1) General requirements .


Except as provided in paragraph (b)(2), an application or petition shall not be approved or revalidated until the name (to include aliases) of the petitioner, applicant, beneficiary, and the names of any spouse and children who will derive an immediate benefit through their relationship (without filing a separate application) have been checked against IBIS, in accordance with the procedures set forth in Appendix 10-6 of this field manual. If such a check reveals the existence of relating files, or other information, they shall be obtained and considered before making a determination upon the application or petition.


An IBIS query on a new application/petition must be run within 15 calendar days of initial receipt. In addition to the initial query, an IBIS query must be conducted at any of the following times, if evidence of the IBIS query indicates it is no longer current (i.e. more than 180 days old):


· At the time of decision;

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In general, since dates have been retrogressed for so long, all IBIS checks will have expired for I-485 submitted last year unless USCIS have been proactively renewing them (as if!).

Spec,
Any idea on Consular processing?
Once the date becomes current, are CP cases at disadvantage compared to AOS cases? (since interview dates availability at consulate becomes a factor to consider).
Also does NVC schedule interviews based on PD?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

Could you please elaborate the above statement with respect to non-porters who filed their I-485 ? Do we get our visa number via IVAMS once we are current? My guess is the spill-over allocation is paper based.

I think visa number allocation after pre-adjudication will go strictly by priority date. What is your take?

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Kanmani,

When a case is pre-adjudicated, a request is made via IVAMS for a visa allocation. If it cannot be granted immediately (because the PD is not Current), the information on Country, Category PD and A number is held in a pending file which we see as the Demand Data.

When the Cut Off Date moves, the IVAMS system automatically generates a list of cases that have become Current and sends that to USCIS. It is then up to USCIS to close out those cases and confirm the visa allocation.

Currently, a large number of interfiling cases will be in addition to these numbers, since their PD under EB2 has not yet been Current and the conversion to EB2 has not taken place.

If the Cut Off Date moves a lot, I am cynical enough to believe that the IO will choose the "low hanging fruit" rather than process strictly by PD. If the PD is Current, all cases are equally eligible to be approved and the IO performance is largely determined by how how many cases are closed out. Under those circumstances, they are going to choose the easy cases to boost their statistics.

Thanks Spec. Looks like luck plays a prominent role, which is bad for non-lhfruits.

technically yes ... but given that the EB3 case also might be pre-adjudicated, I would imagine it shouldn't be such a big deal. Basically they will approve the EB3 application - not the EB3. And the basis for visa allocation is going to be EB2. Right? So although technically they might say it adds 30-90 days delay - I think that is the worst case scenario - not average case. Average case it should be 30 days or less (just like any other currrent EB2 date with a preadjudicated 485).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demand

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Hey All

Can you please explain the rationale for the below analysis? How come when 1 & 3 are happening X is at advantage and when 2 &4 are happening B is at advantage?

Also if dates are moved progressively? what are the chances are Eb3-Eb2 porters could influence the dates not to be moved to expected cut-off dates as analyzed by GURUS os 1st page? Is it likely that due to the progression and build up off porter applications dates might end up in Dec 2006 or Dec 2007?

thanks for all the hardwork and feedback you provide - words are not enough to appreciate the effort you put in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by venkat

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

IBIS (Interagency Border Inspection System) is part of the background check.

Originally it was only valid for 35 days. Subsequently it was extended to 90 days and now appears to be 180 days.

From the AFM (section 10.3)


In general, since dates have been retrogressed for so long, all IBIS checks will have expired for I-485 submitted last year unless USCIS have been proactively renewing them (as if!).

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Wouldnt this also apply to Medicals? IIRC they are valid for a year.

Technically Medicals are valid for one year only, but USCIS extends the validity of the already submitted medicals every year by issuing an memorandum (internally).

Unless we receive a notice for submission of updated medical report, the one we submitted along with I-485 is valid . The following memo authorises the validation of Form I693 until September 30, 2013.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...inal122012.pdf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Wouldnt this also apply to Medicals? IIRC they are valid for a year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Technically Medicals are valid for one year only, but USCIS extends the validity of the already submitted medicals every year by issuing an memorandum (internally).

Unless we receive a notice for submission of updated medical report, the one we submitted along with I-485 is valid .

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vizcard,

Here's a link to the latest Memo which covers all adjudications in FY2013.

It also says:

Quote:

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USCIS anticipates that it will issue a new policy in regards to the sufficiency of Form I-693 endorsements for FY 2014. USCIS is currently working with CDC on developing the new policy.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

Here's a link to the latest Memo which covers all adjudications in FY2013.

It also says:

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Thanks. This helps.

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
The trackitt reply states that interfiling is done at time of I-140 itself. If so, all are treated on par and I do not know why these cases are not added to demand(atleast the interfilers who filed I-140 months back)

Interfiling process as per Trackitt Forum

""I had enough discussion with lawyer for interfiling related matter. According to them, we request porting and interfiling at time of filing 140 (via letter/colored papers etc). Then 1st indication that CIS have seen our request is when they approve 140 with OLDPD. Then interfiling should happen automatically internally within CIS. But effect of interfiling does not get reflected right away, specially when PD is not current. But lawyer office told me that they are going to confirm this aggressively when PD become current.

I kind of agree with what i been told because this is what happened to my friend. His PD was 2003EB3. Filed 140EB2 in Aug2012, That got approved in Dec12. His OLDPD becomes current from October VB in 2012. So within 3 weeks of his 140EB2 approval, his GC got approved in Jan13 and got his card in last week of Jan13"".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bvsamrat,

I have been thinking about this too.

I am not sure one case has any advantage over another. Possibly, the porting I-485 has a slightly higher chance of an RFE.

a) Both cases will probably have to be recalled from storage.

b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

c) Both have a pre-adjudicated I-485 (at least up to July 2007). The only difference is the interfiling (requesting a visa under EB2), which doesn't involve any extra adjudication of the I-485.

d) Requesting a new visa number in IVAMS is instantaneous if Current and takes no more time than using IVAMS to use a visa allocated at the time of pre-adjudication.

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

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With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

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I feel 2009'ers should pin their hopes for next year rather than this year.
Even if DOS moves dates into 2009, they will do so to pick low hanging fruits - as Gurus have mentioned above, and it is pure speculation until what date in 2009 they will move, if at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current

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bvsamrat,

My understanding is that there are 2 separate processes for what people loosely refer to as "interfiling".

a) Consolidation of the A-file with all the information to show the person is eligible under EB2 when dates are Current. That can be done, even if the PD is not Current. Possibly an IBIS check is initiated at this point, if needed (I don't know).

b) Conversion of the underlying basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 and a visa request under EB2. The AFM says this can only happen when the PD is Current for the new basis (EB2). So no request for a visa number under EB2 can be made until the PD becomes Current again. That makes perfect sense, since there is no situation where you could submit a new I-485 when the dates are not Current.

The last time most cases would have been Current was in May 2012, when the COD was 15AUG07. In theory, any cases that have become ready to "interfile" in the nearly 9 months since that time can not form part of the Demand Data, since no visa can be requested under EB2.

I would have expected the Demand Data for EB2-I 2003 - 2006 to have risen fairly considerably had porting cases been included. It hasn't. The oddity is that EB3 demand has dropped and I don't know how to reconcile that fact.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by zenmaster

I feel 2009'ers should pin their hopes for next year rather than this year.
Even if DOS moves dates into 2009, they will do so to pick low hanging fruits - as Gurus have mentioned above, and it is pure speculation until what date in 2009 they will move, if at all.

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Assuming CO doesn't repeat last year's reckless forward movement AND without CIR, I will be shocked if we go beyond Jan 1, 2009. Ofcourse with CIR, all bets are off.

PS: There is a separate thread for CIR, so DO NOT discuss any CIR bills or potential bills in this thread.

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

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My understanding is that the current USCIS systems are SMART enough to identify the oldest PD of the person and attach it to the latest 140 filed. This was mentioned in one of USCIS memos also. They also mentioned that the adjudication process also works according to the oldest PD. If this is true then you no need to have interfiling request and possibly even the porting request, all you need is to file the new 140 based on new EB2 labour and sytem will take care of the adjudication process based on the oldest PD associated to your file.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
The trackitt reply states that interfiling is done at time of I-140 itself. If so, all are treated on par and I do not know why these cases are not added to demand(atleast the interfilers who filed I-140 months back)

Interfiling process as per Trackitt Forum

""I had enough discussion with lawyer for interfiling related matter. According to them, we request porting and interfiling at time of filing 140 (via letter/colored papers etc). Then 1st indication that CIS have seen our request is when they approve 140 with OLDPD. Then interfiling should happen automatically internally within CIS. But effect of interfiling does not get reflected right away, specially when PD is not current. But lawyer office told me that they are going to confirm this aggressively when PD become current.

I kind of agree with what i been told because this is what happened to my friend. His PD was 2003EB3. Filed 140EB2 in Aug2012, That got approved in Dec12. His OLDPD becomes current from October VB in 2012. So within 3 weeks of his 140EB2 approval, his GC got approved in Jan13 and got his card in last week of Jan13"".

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Hi Gurus,

This is my first post here. First of all, I would like to say that I have been following this forum for about a month now and it has been a great experience, reading different views and this process really makes sense to me now. Thanks for providing this knowledge to the community.

Question:

My old PD is EB2 April 2008. Labor filed Jan 2013 and pending. I am assuming labor approval (if no RFE) sometime in April 2013.
I was wondering when this year my date can become current? Should I be applying I-140 and I-485 concurrently? Should I be ready with all the documents? What documents can I be ready with to expedite the process?
I am planning on I-140 premium processing. Hoping that will be approved in 30 - 40 days. While I-140 is still pending, and dates become current, I can apply for I-485. Correct?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gtyagi

Hi Gurus,

This is my first post here. First of all, I would like to say that I have been following this forum for about a month now and it has been a great experience, reading different views and this process really makes sense to me now. Thanks for providing this knowledge to the community.

Question:

My old PD is EB2 April 2008. Labor filed Jan 2013 and pending. I am assuming labor approval (if no RFE) sometime in April 2013.
I was wondering when this year my date can become current? Should I be applying I-140 and I-485 concurrently? Should I be ready with all the documents? What documents can I be ready with to expedite the process?
I am planning on I-140 premium processing. Hoping that will be approved in 30 - 40 days. While I-140 is still pending, and dates become current, I can apply for I-485. Correct?

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With an April 2008 PD, since you don't appear to have applied for your I485 in Jan 2012, I take it your original application was in EB3?

Your PD will likely become current anytime between June and September 2013. It's hard to say exactly when. You can file your I140 and I485 concurrently only if the dates are current. If they aren't and aren't likely to be (at any point you will have between 20 and 50 days of visibility) you would be better off filing the I140 via premium processing while keeping your I485 application ready.

The I140 application is really your employer's application, although it will require some information on your part. Ask your lawyer for what exactly they need that they don't already have (I had to provide my resume, details of all entries and exits from the US, employment confirmation from all my prior employers, etc, although I think a lot of it was overkill).

For the I485 application, check out this thread for information on what you will need: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1273#post1273

If I were you, I'd also find the civil surgeon now and book an appointment for the 15th of the next month, and start to gather my vaccination records. If the dates don't move forward sufficiently for any particular VB, push the appointment out to the next month.

Thanks Pedro. It is really helpful. My PD April 2008 was for EB2. The delay in PERM filing from my new employer brought me to this situation. Murthy is filing for it. So, if labor gets approved in April 2013, I may still have some time to do the I-140 in premium processing and wait for dates to get current in June - September. If I-140 is pending, can I still file for I-485 as soon as dates become current?
Any specific documents for my spouse for I-485?
I also had some unauthorized employment. At what time I will have to file 245K? I have entered US legally after that mishap.
Response is greatly appreciated.
Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

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So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by helooo

So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

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theoretically CO could start to use some in the next VB. Realistically though it will be in the July or Aug VB