EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-09-2011, 11:24 AM
ifaith

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

very good point. H1 is automatically cancelled. Then does he have AP. I believe AP should be ok, as that's the very purpose of AP, to allow for travel during the period waiting for AOS to be completed. If he does not have AP, then immigrant visa stamp as superdesi said. Actually the immigrant visa stamp seems to be the most safe way. You can also try putting this question on Ron Gotcher's forum. Or best, take least time allowed by a lawyer, pay him, and ask the question, for sure shot answer.

Thanks superdesi and nishant2000
He does not have a AP or EAD as he just applied for AOS on June 3rd and the green card came before AP could come.
08-09-2011, 11:24 AM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_usa

This bulletin will be a big bumper :) I see people having very high hope and in the end it will be little movement with no comment...

if that happens, still at the end of FY, more data points will be obtained, and we will see if we could have done better in analysis, and re-calibrate ourselves.

Even last time, hopes were high, but small movement with no comments. But we survived!
08-09-2011, 11:25 AM
immitrickz

Point taken..I wish my source is Mr.Charles Oppenheim

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Error on prediction is acceptable/understandable depending on the magnitude. But error on "insider information" hurts credibility. Wish your source provides first credible information sometime soon in future.
08-09-2011, 11:30 AM
qesehmk

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)

Product Page views Clicks Page CTR CPC Page RPM Estimated earnings
AdSense for Content 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39
08-09-2011, 11:31 AM
tiger_of_web

I just get a feeling that there wont be any BTM in this bulletin. Also, i feel that DS under CO operates differently. They dont like to move the dates and then retrogress. One small movement to get new applications will happen somewhere in May/June 2012 which will account for the expected spillover for that year and wont retrogress back again. USCIS is very capable of processing 485's in 30-45 days. Another movement can happen in July/Aug 2012 to make sure that visa numbers are not wasted. I think going forward this is the fashion in which we will see the DS operates. Its good in a way, brings some predictability into the system.
08-09-2011, 11:35 AM
qesehmk

I am sorry. Sometimes I do talk like a Jerk. Thanks for taking it easy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by immitrickz

Point taken..I wish my source is Mr.Charles Oppenheim
08-09-2011, 11:38 AM
belmontboy

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiger_of_web

I just get a feeling that there wont be any BTM in this bulletin. Also, i feel that DS under CO operates differently. They dont like to move the dates and then retrogress. One small movement to get new applications will happen somewhere in May/June 2012 which will account for the expected spillover for that year and wont retrogress back again. USCIS is very capable of processing 485's in 30-45 days. Another movement can happen in July/Aug 2012 to make sure that visa numbers are not wasted. I think going forward this is the fashion in which we will see the DS operates. Its good in a way, brings some predictability into the system.

If the new intake happens in may/june 2012, there will be visa wastage for sure. Also 30-45 days for processing new 485's is impossible - as procedures like biometrics, security check take lot of time.
Any new intake has to happen no later than Q2 of 2012 (USCIS calendar year)
08-09-2011, 11:40 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)

Product Page views Clicks Page CTR CPC Page RPM Estimated earnings
AdSense for Content 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39

No one has become rich from Adsense/Adwords combo except Google.
08-09-2011, 12:04 PM
pdfeb09

I hope u make some more money out of it !! :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)
Product Page views Clicks Page CTR CPC Page RPM Estimated earnings
AdSense for Content 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39

Just to show my appreciation for your efforts Q, I clicked on a couple of your add banners ..!! :)
08-09-2011, 12:16 PM
nishant2200

Just to clarify on behalf of Q, the money made is donated to charities.

See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ations-We-Made
08-09-2011, 12:16 PM
vchirakala

wow ...no updates for 1Hr 10 min s...
Still waiting for the bulletin :-)
08-09-2011, 12:16 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchirakala

wow ...no updates for 1Hr 10 min s...
Still waiting for the bulletin :-)

Yeah dude, I will say it again. This wait is killing me.

When the fate is already decided, why so much delay. Last time they released it like 6.45 AM PST, the next day after demand data released.
08-09-2011, 12:18 PM
vchirakala

May be it will be current ..thats why so much suspense...
08-09-2011, 12:18 PM
pg_at_q

as someone said earlier...maybe they are waiting for the fed minutes to come out ;)
08-09-2011, 12:20 PM
vchirakala

that was me ...
08-09-2011, 12:22 PM
zenmaster

The web developer who is suppose to move the link from UAT to Prod. is on lunch break guys.... wait until his lunch is over :)
08-09-2011, 12:22 PM
pg_at_q

dude...u got a lot of theories...maybe it'll be current...maybe it's due to fed minutes...you'll make it good in the law field..or even CSI :)...(jk...u know that...lol!)
08-09-2011, 12:23 PM
mesan123

is it normal??? do they release bulletin in late afternoon's . i also know last time they released by 10am EST and removed it again for few hours and then re-released it

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yeah dude, I will say it again. This wait is killing me.

When the fate is already decided, why so much delay. Last time they released it like 6.45 AM PST, the next day after demand data released.
08-09-2011, 12:24 PM
neospeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yeah dude, I will say it again. This wait is killing me.

When the fate is already decided, why so much delay. Last time they released it like 6.45 AM PST, the next day after demand data released.

CO might be crunching numbers left over from family based that will go to employment for the next year, based on that they will move dates accordingly.
08-09-2011, 12:27 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

is it normal??? do they release bulletin in late afternoon's . i also know last time they released by 10am EST and removed it again for few hours and then re-released it

yes, the bulletin which got released and raised dates to March 8th, 2007, was released at PST lunchtime around. I remember because I was driving back from an excellent pizza lunch around 12.45 PST, when my friend, who always calls me as soon as VB is out, called me up to inform. so it can be in fact released that late too.
08-09-2011, 12:28 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdfeb09

Just to show my appreciation for your efforts Q, I clicked on a couple of your add banners ..!! :)

Appreciate the gesture ... even if its a joke. But please don't unless there is genuine interest.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Just to clarify on behalf of Q, the money made is donated to charities.
See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ations-We-Made

Thanks Nishant. So far we have made more in donations than received revenues. But I repeat - DO NOT CLICK UNLESS GENUINELY INTERESTED. We don't really need a lot of money to run this site. So dont worry about financials of the site.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

is it normal??? do they release bulletin in late afternoon's . i also know last time they released by 10am EST and removed it again for few hours and then re-released it

CO did say the bulletin is definitely coming today afternoon.
08-09-2011, 12:29 PM
chinni27

Guys....

SEP 11 VB PD will be 8th May 07 or 16th Jun 07.
08-09-2011, 12:31 PM
vchirakala

chinni ...

please let us know the source.
08-09-2011, 12:35 PM
dec2007

My pd is dec31,2007, eb2i. That was a very odd date chosen by my lawyer..by the way, he was great. Back in 07, He used to call me after work hrs and forced me to get the papers quickly...bad luck he is no more working in that firm..

For me to get current, im hoping the news about NVC receipt dates is correct, so that dates move to 2008.
08-09-2011, 12:37 PM
pdfeb09

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Just to clarify on behalf of Q, the money made is donated to charities.

See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ations-We-Made

Thanks nishant2200 !! My post was in a lighter vein....but Knowing, what I know now, just increases my respect for Q.
08-09-2011, 12:39 PM
natvyas

since we are all waiting for the VB to come out, in the meantime should be discuss the implications of the COD moving to Sept 1?

Just a thought
08-09-2011, 12:40 PM
Gclongwait

Quote:

Originally Posted by dec2007

My pd is dec31,2007, eb2i. That was a very odd date chosen by my lawyer..by the way, he was great. Back in 07, He used to call me after work hrs and forced me to get the papers quickly...bad luck he is no more working in that firm..

For me to get current, im hoping the news about NVC receipt dates is correct, so that dates move to 2008.

I can assure you the news is correct, atleast for fee receipts until Mar 2008. The bigger issue is if that news even means anything. I guess we will come to know soon. tick..tock..tick..tock
08-09-2011, 12:40 PM
qblogfan

Thanks for your kind words.

maybe rodnyb's news is accurate. what I meant was that mitbbs does not have this information flowing around. maybe rodnyb got this news from other sources.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q I will go by our friend qbf on this, we accept his authority. However if rodnyb's news really turns out to be true I will give him a hi5.
08-09-2011, 12:44 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gclongwait

I can assure you the news is correct, atleast for fee receipts until Mar 2008. The bigger issue is if that news even means anything. I guess we will come to know soon. tick..tock..tick..tock

I have always been very curious on this. Have you actually seen such a notice receipt, or know personally a person who got it and can vouch for him/her. Just really curious.
08-09-2011, 12:46 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

since we are all waiting for the VB to come out, in the meantime should be discuss the implications of the COD moving to Sept 1?

Just a thought

The biggest implication would be, PWMB would be removed out of the calculations, and then only unknowns left for predictions would be porting and of course, the SO sources of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5 and theoretically EB4, their usage pattern.
08-09-2011, 12:46 PM
vchirakala

where is rodnyb's news ...if someone can please brief us about it
08-09-2011, 12:46 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Thanks for your kind words.

maybe rodnyb's news is accurate. what I meant was that mitbbs does not have this information flowing around. maybe rodnyb got this news from other sources.

Let’s wait for the official VB to set the record straight. Some other posters commented that the 09/01 was an individual’s prediction and someone else just commented the news is authentic. Right now everything is in complete flux. However let’s rely on our predictions and if this news is correct be pleasantly surprised.
08-09-2011, 12:47 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchirakala

where is rodnyb's news ...if someone can please brief us about it

Let’s wait for the official VB to set the record straight. Right now the discussion is in complete flux with varying opinions. let’s rely on our predictions and if this news is correct be pleasantly surprised.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ml#post2734606
08-09-2011, 12:47 PM
pdfeb09

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Appreciate the gesture ... even if its a joke. But please don't unless there is genuine interest.

I do appreciate all the efforts.
After looking at your post about making money on a blog, I assumed you were in a lighter mood until the VB comes out and couldn't resist responding to it.. was twiddling my thumbs anyways.. :)
I seriously did not mind clicking on the ads here (usually I cautiously avoid them on any other site .. TOI anyone ?) and that was "before" I knew what u did with the money.. After Nishant's post however, I am glad I did.

Enough of this now.. not a perfect timing for this given how many ppl are watching the thread waiting for something other than this stupid explanation .. :)
08-09-2011, 12:48 PM
ssvp22

I predict this site will go down as soon as VB is out ;)
08-09-2011, 12:52 PM
qesehmk

Before people jump on ssvp22 .... let me clarify what he means ... .he means the site is going to crash. (last time it happend a couple of times!).

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

I predict this site will go down as soon as VB is out ;)
08-09-2011, 12:53 PM
vchirakala

i think we need to register to view the message in the forum.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Let’s wait for the official VB to set the record straight. Right now the discussion is in complete flux with varying opinions. let’s rely on our predictions and if this news is correct be pleasantly surprised.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ml#post2734606
08-09-2011, 12:53 PM
gcoracle

Going to Britney Spears concert tonight. It would be even more sweeter if my PD (Dec 2007) gets current. If it doesn't, I have an excuse to have fun tonight.
08-09-2011, 12:58 PM
operas

My PD is 2010 Feb : EB2.. I know I have a loooong time to go yet.. But really really hope the guys who missed it by a whisker last month & 07 get through. You guys have been waiting for too long.. :(

Glad to see this amazing community.. even though I haven't been actively posting, have been actively monitoring this thread :)

Cheers !
08-09-2011, 01:03 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchirakala

i think we need to register to view the message in the forum.

Unfortunately registration is a requirement there unlike this forum. The wait for the VB should be over today evening anyway. Good luck to you and everyone. Since QBF does not certify any of that as authentic its best not to believe in it and be pleasantly surprised if it’s true.

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