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The US consulates / embassies will be closed for a couple of months with no new visas being issued. We are almost at the very start of recession or perhaps already in one. There is also the family spillover that would need to be applied. How will this impact the EB2 / EB3 dates going forward? Can the gurus pitch in with their 0.02 cents?
Carl Shusterman's site published a Charlie update dated 20MAR2020.
EB1: The longer the Guangzhou, China post remains closed EB-5 numbers will fall up to EB1-I. There are 18,000 EB1-I already interviewed and ready to get visa numbers.
EB2: EB2 ROW remains current and he earlier predicted a PD around June 2020. Based on the anticipated slowdown in processing due to the coronavirus, Charlie expects that might not occur until late summer, if at all.
EB3: EB-3 number usage in FY20 has been robust, which caused the category to retrogress. As such, this category has already used a significant amount of its fiscal year allocation.
Shusterman's website link
I would think it is little too early to check the options with the country reeling with cases increase daily. We are now the 3rd highest in the world with this pandemic.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Anyone noticed that EB2ROW cases are getting approved without interviews? I think any chance of getting horizontal spillover is getting reduced.
I think the NSC behavior seems to be inconsistent. We had ours filed in the first week of Jan and were approved by third week of Feb and received documents.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
that sounds strange. Do you know any case that was approved without interview? that would certainly a big departure from the standard followed for 3-4 years nowQuote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
the only possible cases that could be approved w/o interview are the once for which I485 was submitted before March 6, 2017. For EB2, this should only be possible only for India and China. For EB3 also, this should practically only happen for india and china, as the FAD for all other countries has moved beyond this point a few times in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
Do you see any approval without interview for i-485 filed after March 6, 2017 ?
Folks - don't confuse departmental rules regulations and policies as laws. For general public regulations are same as laws. But the concerned department can bypass its own rules/ regulations / policies any time. So if they don't want to interview ROW - it is within their power to do so.
The only way YOU can challenge that is if a rule / regulation / policy goes against a law passed by congress or the constitution.
In nutshell - I have been saying this for very long time. There is a clear historical bias in how DoS / DHS has prioritized backlogs from all other countries over EB-IC. They have consistently done it at 485 / I-140 / Labor / CP level (in that order as I have seen it).
The only answer to this discrimination is removal of country caps.
There are couple cases on Trackitt, their interview was cancelled and after few days their cards got approved. My interview got cancelled however my PD becomes current tomorrow on April 01, 2020. I was really hoping that I'll be lucky one too but Q's comments about how they are doing it for EB2 ROW puts damper on my spirits. Hope that's not the case and mine gets approved without interview too.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
My PD is EB2-I May 22, 2009
Interview was scheduled for March 23, 2009
Interview cancelled on March 18, 2009
If 3.3 million people have filed for unemployment, logically how will any new PERMS get approved in the next 6-9 months? How will that potentially affect the PD movement for EB3/EB2I?
Actually my comments while generally true - in this specific case - i am having a rethink. It is likely that the interviews were cancelled due to COVID situation. And so you too may get greened without an interview (which was actually the norm until very recently). All the best!Quote:
Originally Posted by lville
What I have been told in past is that, Company has to show that there is no layoff for specific job function for which they are filing perm and sponsoring GC. i.e replacing citizen with Visa guy. Keeping this in mind then yes if financial analyst / program mgr perm will not go thru if there is layoff for those position. If layoff is strictly a criteria then HR intensive companies likes of Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Marriott will never be able to file for GC. With current administration, I don't know if this will be the case or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
My understanding with 3.3 million number is that its skewed towards blue collar labor. Soon white collar folks will get impacted too as companies bottom line will be impacted with economic shutdown.
Not to scare anyone, my logic says worst is yet to come based on stimulus pkg size. Great Recession got ~$800B TARP bill and this one already has ~$2.2T pkg and talks of Rd 4 underway around April end so buckle up, Folks who has big picture data are looking seeing sign of meltdown and pumping $$ into economy. So it will be bumpy ride and if I am still in Q after recession then yes plenty of spillover to EB2/3-I categories.
Disclaimer - Just my rambling, not a lawyer but pretend to be one on interweb. Not good with prediction otherwise would have won MegaMillion by now. Take these with lump of salt....
It has been happening with some more cases now. Trackitt has a separate thread tracking all those cases. DoS/USCIS are not worried about India/China backlogs. Even if there's a recession, I don't hold any hopes for India/China cases. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
One of the Indian fellow just got his GC without interview on trackitt. His name is Dushyant.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
So I don't think it is biased as far as I can tell. But since yesterday there's not much activity about people getting interview waivers.
BTW my date is current this month. Who should I call ? USCIS main office (NBC) or USCIS field office ? Does field office have phone numbers ? or are we supposed to call the main line 1-800 ? I don't want to miss this time.
Gurus - With the consulates being closed as well as companies not filing I-485s, one thing is certain that we will have a huge spillover from FB. Add to that the 16K spillover from last year.
In such a scenario, where do you see the EB3 / EB2 India dates ending up? Of course, this is all subject to the spill overs being applied and visas not being wasted. 3 months of visas will constitute a big number and maybe more if this lasts even further.
I don't know about that... I see the following different categories that could help people in EB2-I backlogs:Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
1) The people in the EB2-I backlog reduce as some people lose their jobs and are forced to abandon their application
2) Similarly, some ROW folks might be forced to abandon their application if their employer doesn't need them anymore
3) Employers become more hesitant in sponsoring GCs for existing ROW H1Bs already in the US - reduces the additions to the pipeline
4) Fewer people from the ROW come to the US on H1Bs or directly on EB GCs - also reducing the future additions to the pipeline
5) Any reductions in CP EB1-C or FB cases from the consulates being closed and those cases being abandoned
If we are entering a recession, then there has to be a reduction in the number of people with valid immigration petitions?
I wasn't in the queue in 2009 so don't know what happened then, but maybe some of the experts can chime in.
I have been in the queue since 2010 and there have been a lot of prognostications as to how the Oct-2008 through 2009 recession would put a massive dent in the green card demand for that year. Diddly squat has happened. The dates were stuck in 2008 for years and now in 2009. It's just rinse and repeat. Everyone will get their hopes up now that there will be no demand, nothing is likely to happen. As long as these evil people like Stephen Miller are pulling the immigration puppet strings from behind the stage, nothing will move forward. He is probably rubbing his hands together in glee and thinking of various schemes to utilize the current crisis to further strangle all types of immigration by saying the magic word: CORONAVIRUS!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
So how do you think backlog cleared till 2009 ? Did you not see the spillover years ?
Admittedly my response is an emotional one, rather than data driven. Maybe someone else can crunch the numbers and estimate how the spillover will affect calculations. The only reason for my pessimism is that unavailability of accurate data as to how many people are actually in line and the propensity of the current admin to make sure all forms of immigration is completely halted and then boast about it in a few months to win another election.
Dates moved till 2008 for EB2 and EB3 because of the spillovers from EB1 and EB2ROW earlier. Now most of that spillover is consumed by EB1 as there was a clarification for manager positions and intra company transfers and filings increase from 2012 onwards for those. Right now until country cap removal happens there is no chance to get spillover in the same range of 15 to 20K for EB2I,C or EB3I,C to clear any backlogs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
One big difference between the 2008/2009 recession to the current one is that the consulates were still functioning and FB visas were being utilized. Its close to 4 weeks and no FB visas are being consumed. If this goes on for a few weeks which it will, we are easily talking about ~40K spillover of FB visas. Add to that the under utilization of EB visas for ROW countries and 16K FB spillover from last year.
How and when the spillover gets applied is a different conversation all together...
Those are excellent points! Are there any legal avenues to sue DoS/USCIS and force them to recapture those numbers if they don't appropriately re-allocate any left over visas from FB to other classifications?Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Yup. This is pretty much our best chance (and there have been a lot of false hopes over the last few years). A month's total shutdown of worldwide consulates results in a maximum of 18833 unused FB visas. Visa processing offices are likely to be shutdown atleast till May end (for a total of 3 month shutdown). Even if we get laid off, and have to return back to India, we can always come back if the numbers move fast.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
On the worse case side, for all we know (based on our terrible luck so far), a law may get passed which will reuse unused FB visas next year.
You can bet the people in the FB queue are already thinking of lobbying efforts to do just that.Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
I do not think there is an option to sue but EB1-I stands to benefit immensely. I would suggest to read the below thread on Trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...-impact/page/1
Initially, I got my hopes high but after reading up..it seems EB2 / EB3 will not gain enough to move the dates beyond 6 months (happy to be wrong)
My PD is in September 2009. Hope it moves at least 3-4 months by October 2020 from where it is now. Sure hope it will move past May 2010 so that some folks who are in really long wait even for EAD will finally get their EAD's.
Yeah, that's definitely a thread with good analysis compared to the otherwise toxic sludge over there.Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
Hello,
Was checking the 140 approvals , and I only see 6674 i 140 petitions approvals for EB2 India, any thoughts around why arent the dates arent moving beyond 2009?
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
Priority dates is based on LCA and not I-140 approval. Keeping that in mind, many I-140 approval from 2010 will have priority date of 2009. If we consider 50-50 split i.e 6 month trailing I would say ~3k out of 6k from 2009 and ~8k out of 15k from 2010 approved I-140 should have 2009 priority date. So total we are looking at will be 11K and with multiple fact of 2, 22K GC numbers are needed just to clear 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpharomeo
That makes sense now, thanks for the response ! My priority date is in May 2010...the wait seems endless
How is the Perm approval trend looks like? I assume that would be at minimal
I've updated data in FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read) PERM/Labor Data with the PERM figures for Q1 & Q2 FY2020.
Hi Spec,
I can't view it however I logged in with my registered user id
Can someone please guide?
texas,Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Sorry to hear that.
It works fine for me.
I think only Q can fix any permissions problems, if that is what's causing the problem.
https://www.cato.org/publications/im...1-million-over
This info is not new but it's a well presented summary article with detailed numbers.
Spec - even i can't find it. What's the link to the thread?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
looks like he updated the images ,atleast thats what i see
This is the link - https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forum...ication-(PERM)Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
its under live discussion --> Labor Certification (Perm)
Hmm ... somehow it went under live discussion. If you would like to move it to the link above and can't do it, let me know. I will be happy to do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator