EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-09-2011, 10:40 AM
mesan123

Hope itz current....Everyone here will get EAD :) and GC in few years

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

does that mean EB2 I/C or just C??
08-09-2011, 10:41 AM
skpanda

May be Q's theory of BTM in October 2011 may come true... by just clearing as many applications as possible in Sept 2011, they will be able to focus on just BTM in Oct 2011 and have about 500 (I + C) earmarked for Oct 2011 approvals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

the date of Sept 1 doesnt make sense because the CO has mentioned that there will be a need to take in more applications if the cut-off date moves to Aug 07. Hence either it should be in July or somewhere late 07/early 08

Regards
Nat
08-09-2011, 10:42 AM
mesan123

Nice reply soggadu....

This is one form where we dont go over indivijuals...so chill out immitrickz

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

dude... really... usually i ignore comments like yours but, you got lucky...

I dont think i am a guru/pandit as i know more of this GC stuff... i just post what i think and what i feel... if it's blathering to you...it's ok dost... it's a free country after all... atleast i am not saying u have to do what i say because i am a guru/pandit... in the end when i go out... i am just a normal desi working my way up... so who cares abt guru/pandit titles...right...

one down... :-)...what your next trick ;-)..chil maro dost... jiyoo aur jeene doo...
08-09-2011, 10:43 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

May be Q's theory of BTM in October 2011 may come true... by just clearing as many applications as possible in Sept 2011, they will be able to focus on just BTM in Oct 2011 and have about 500 (I + C) earmarked for Oct 2011 approvals.

I feel there will be SFM starting from OCT till end of Q1... which should take us to Q1 2008...
08-09-2011, 10:43 AM
ChampU

I was browsing through the posts someone being worried about the H1B extension. At the same time, I read about people with a E-V-C model (premium processing) get their H1 extensions until the date listed on the work order in 3 days with no RFEs. My friend in this model had applied for his extension (Regular processing) in May.. and is still waiting..

Not to belittle anyone's worries, but this is confusing. I was wondering, if situations are indeed that bad?

I read about the E-E RFEs also showing up for non-consulting jobs.My 7th year H1 extension is coming up on 10/31, and HR said that they would send out the paper work by 2nd/3rd week of September (they said they are waiting on some clarification for Q4 budgets).
1. Should I ask them to expedite the process?
2. Should I apply in premium processing??

My PD is 02/22/2008.. It would really really take a miracle for me to file for the I-485 this month.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I agree with what sogaddu has said. skpanda has a great idea if you file the extension at the 11th hour you can stay in status for the maximum amount of time. Ideally even denial should not affect your 485 approval in anyway AFAIK. However times are changing there was some discussion that memo was being applied to I140; hopefully I585 should be outside that purview. Hope that you and many more get current today.
08-09-2011, 10:46 AM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

May be Q's theory of BTM in October 2011 may come true... by just clearing as many applications as possible in Sept 2011, they will be able to focus on just BTM in Oct 2011 and have about 500 (I + C) earmarked for Oct 2011 approvals.

Is it one year movement (BTM) in Oct bulletin?
08-09-2011, 10:46 AM
snathan

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æÍ¬Ö÷ÌâÄ£Ê½ - Î´Ãû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/Immigration.html

After transalation, I couldnt find any thread showing this info.
08-09-2011, 10:48 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends our source told us the bulletin will be published today afternoon. There was no other information provided. But I saw Teddy's post and I think that post could very well be true.

Q Thanks, I believe you have been very consistent in predicting the higher end, this date if true matches it. It will be a dream come true for all PWMB's. This date if true may not be SFM though.

QBLOGFAN paging for you, you are the man of the hour.
08-09-2011, 10:48 AM
natvyas

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

Is it one year movement (BTM) in Oct bulletin?

How can they move dates in Oct if they have more applications than the monthly/quarterly supply of visas?

Have I misunderstood the law/rule?
08-09-2011, 10:50 AM
qblogfan

That is false information.

Nobody on mitbbs provided such information.

Until now Mr.Co didn't release any information to NIU or other chinese guys.

I think we have to wait.......

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æÍ¬Ö÷ÌâÄ£Ê½ - Î´Ãû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/Immigration.html
08-09-2011, 10:50 AM
immitrickz

Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I agree. But hey the guy missed filing by a day and it seems his job is in trouble. So cut him some slack. BTW any news from your source for the visa bulletin this time around?
08-09-2011, 10:51 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

That is false information.

Nobody on mitbbs provided such information.

Until now Mr.Co didn't release any information to NIU or other chinese guys.

I think we have to wait.......

Thanks for clarifying this, we are all back to normal state again.
08-09-2011, 10:51 AM
qesehmk

Champu, you are more or less similar to the other person we have been discussing all this morning. Its hard to give you advice since not sure why they want to wait exactly. Budgets seems like a frivolous reason. May be the lawyer thinks you could be current and avoid H1 expense. But my advice would be to continue H1 regardless 485 is filed. So carefully nudge HR. Unfortunately HRs always behave as if they are the masters of the world.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChampU

I was browsing through the posts someone being worried about the H1B extension. At the same time, I read about people with a E-V-C model (premium processing) get their H1 extensions until the date listed on the work order in 3 days with no RFEs. My friend in this model had applied for his extension (Regular processing) in May.. and is still waiting..

Not to belittle anyone's worries, but this is confusing. I was wondering, if situations are indeed that bad?

I read about the E-E RFEs also showing up for non-consulting jobs.My 7th year H1 extension is coming up on 10/31, and HR said that they would send out the paper work by 2nd/3rd week of September (they said they are waiting on some clarification for Q4 budgets).
1. Should I ask them to expedite the process?
2. Should I apply in premium processing??

My PD is 02/22/2008.. It would really really take a miracle for me to file for the I-485 this month.
08-09-2011, 10:51 AM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

How can they move dates in Oct if they have more applications than the monthly/quarterly supply of visas?

Have I misunderstood the law/rule?

We have never heard of applying spillover in fy Q3, that happened this year. I believe they can justify BTM if they WANT to
08-09-2011, 10:52 AM
skpanda

It is just a thoery. This is a unique situation without any prececdant. So how DOS will handle is just a speculation. They may make exceptions similar to what they did in FY 2011. They allocated spillover in Q3 itself although by law/rule they should do it in Q4. So if they want they can make an exception to do SFM or BTM starting Oct 2011.

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

How can they move dates in Oct if they have more applications than the monthly/quarterly supply of visas?

Have I misunderstood the law/rule?
08-09-2011, 10:53 AM
leo07

Guys, there could be few heart-aches here...with heart swinging like pendulum from both extremes.

please post ONLY credible information:) and limit the swings if possible :)

qblogfan, I respect you commenting very quickly without leading into much hype. TeddyK same with you...man hang in there...we will be through.
08-09-2011, 10:54 AM
qblogfan

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks for clarifying this, we are all back to normal state again.
08-09-2011, 10:54 AM
sha_kus

I always get a feeling that USCIS has a Sholay coin (both sides heads). It is always USCIS wins because they always call heads.. And look at this data '09/01/2007' this looks like the coin didnt fall either side its standing still vertical to the ground.. na udhar ka na eedhar ka...

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

That is false information.

Nobody on mitbbs provided such information.

Until now Mr.Co didn't release any information to NIU or other chinese guys.

I think we have to wait.......
08-09-2011, 10:55 AM
skpanda

Cautiously optmistic - Hope that surprise is CURRENT for entire EB2.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.
08-09-2011, 10:55 AM
mesan123

Dont worry friend...as you missed by one day...it would have been hard on you.... i hope your date and who ever on year 2007 get there dates current this time... :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by immitrickz

Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..
08-09-2011, 10:57 AM
evoori

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

How come we don't have his number ? Can I have his direct number ? I want to know when 09262007 will be current..:)
08-09-2011, 10:57 AM
qesehmk

Teddy 1 sep 2007 is end of my comfort zone for SFM. Anything after that must retrogress. That is the reason I liked the date. But as qbf pointed out it could be false. Rodnyb is my old friend from IV ;) Say hello to him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q Thanks, I believe you have been very consistent in predicting the higher end, this date if true matches it. It will be a dream come true for all PWMB's. This date if true may not be SFM though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by immitrickz

Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..

immitrickz, last time your source said there won't be any movement for August bulletin and that didn't pan out quite well. But still thought if there is any information it would be useful to people.
08-09-2011, 10:57 AM
sc09876

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth
08-09-2011, 10:59 AM
qesehmk

You made my day!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by sha_kus

I always get a feeling that USCIS has a Sholay coin (both sides heads). It is always USCIS wins because they always call heads.. And look at this data '09/01/2007' this looks like the coin didnt fall either side its standing still vertical to the ground.. na udhar ka na eedhar ka...
08-09-2011, 10:59 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

Guys, there could be few heart-aches here...with heart swinging like pendulum from both extremes.

please post ONLY credible information:) and limit the swings if possible :)

qblogfan, I respect you commenting very quickly without leading into much hype. TeddyK same with you...man hang in there...we will be through.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

Leo I can really understand your feelings, hoping for the best my friend. Thanks to our friend qblogfan for putting all speculation to rest so quickly.
08-09-2011, 11:00 AM
gchopeful123

evoori,

My PD is 09/24/2007 :) Let's hope we get thru today!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by evoori

How come we don't have his number ? Can I have his direct number ? I want to know when 09262007 will be current..:)
08-09-2011, 11:03 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy 1 sep 2007 is end of my comfort zone for SFM. Anything after that must retrogress. That is the reason I liked the date. But as qbf pointed out it could be false. Rodnyb is my old friend from IV ;) Say hello to him.

Q I will go by our friend qbf on this, we accept his authority. However if rodnyb's news really turns out to be true I will give him a hi5.
08-09-2011, 11:07 AM
immitrickz

Thanks for the Reminder !! To be fair to my source, the movement differed by a month (Which definitely means a lot to most of us here) compared to huge forward movements predicted earlier for that bulletin . And no, i don't have any information to share this time around...

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

immitrickz, last time your source said there won't be any movement for August bulletin and that didn't pan out quite well. But still thought if there is any information it would be useful to people.
08-09-2011, 11:07 AM
skpanda

Have you heard of 'spillover' that has been happening for last few years in EB2ICs favor? USCIS will need inventory. Please PM me if you want to discuss further on this...

Quote:

Originally Posted by sc09876

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth
08-09-2011, 11:11 AM
Nishant_imt

guys, did any of you had an DHS officer visit at your workplace regarding the H1B visa? Did they contact your consulting company later? what was the outcome?
08-09-2011, 11:12 AM
imechanix

This feel like the last over of India Vs. Pakistan (USCIS) match. The excitement is crazy.
08-09-2011, 11:13 AM
immitrickz

lol...so true..

Quote:

Originally Posted by imechanix

This feel like the last over of India Vs. Pakistan (USCIS) match. The excitement is crazy.
08-09-2011, 11:15 AM
indiasunil

We will see sep bulletin match statistics around 3:50 pm et .. :-)
08-09-2011, 11:15 AM
gc_usa

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

guys, did any of you had an DHS officer visit at your workplace regarding the H1B visa? Did they contact your consulting company later? what was the outcome?

Yes they did at my workplace and I am full time so except checking some facts nothing happened.
08-09-2011, 11:15 AM
immitrickz

Well..The trick came from you this time around.. playing the victim card ..

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

dude... really... usually i ignore comments like yours but, you got lucky...

I dont think i am a guru/pandit as i know more of this GC stuff... i just post what i think and what i feel... if it's blathering to you...it's ok dost... it's a free country after all... atleast i am not saying u have to do what i say because i am a guru/pandit... in the end when i go out... i am just a normal desi working my way up... so who cares abt guru/pandit titles...right...

one down... :-)...what your next trick ;-)..chil maro dost... jiyoo aur jeene doo...
08-09-2011, 11:16 AM
gc_usa

This bulletin will be a big bumper :) I see people having very high hope and in the end it will be little movement with no comment...
08-09-2011, 11:16 AM
kd2008

There are currently 280 users online. 43 members and 237 guests

We still have a long way to go to break the record of 387.
08-09-2011, 11:18 AM
gc_usa

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

There are currently 280 users online. 43 members and 237 guests

We still have a long way to go to break the record of 387.

It will be around when bulletin get published. not now :(
08-09-2011, 11:19 AM
qesehmk

Error on prediction is acceptable/understandable depending on the magnitude. But error on "insider information" hurts credibility. Wish your source provides first credible information sometime soon in future.

Quote:

Originally Posted by immitrickz

Thanks for the Reminder !! To be fair to my source, the movement differed by a month (Which definitely means a lot to most of us here) compared to huge forward movements predicted earlier for that bulletin . And no, i don't have any information to share this time around...

Quote:

Originally Posted by sc09876

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

I think you laid it out quite well. I agree with you a lot on this. The only thing is .. USCIS knows that every year there is Spillover and so they need to move dates by that much at a min to not let those visas go waste. Thats why BTM. SFM is what otherwise they do every month - move the dates by 0-1 weeks!
08-09-2011, 11:19 AM
jackbrown_890

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiasunil

We will see sep bulletin match statistics around 3:50 pm et .. :-)

It feels like a long test match.
Lunch break..now
i guess, VB will be released after Tea in 4th session.

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