Gurus, it has been a frustrating year for EB2I with dates hardly moving. Do you think EB2I dates will move in last quarter may be reach filing date July 1? or cross July?
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Gurus, it has been a frustrating year for EB2I with dates hardly moving. Do you think EB2I dates will move in last quarter may be reach filing date July 1? or cross July?
For last 2 quarters before each quarter began they gave projections on how dates will move. I'm guessing may be in April Bulletin they will give another projection on movement for next quarter for each category.Quote:
Originally Posted by newsletter1978
For eg In Oct bulletin they said EB2I will move by 1 week and we noticed EB2I moved by 1 day, 3 days and 3 days in Nov, Dec and Jan. ALso in Jan bulletin they said like movement for EB2I will be by 1 week and so far EB2I has moved by 1 day, 3 days and most likely it will move by 3 days in April Bulletin bringing EB2I to May 25, 2009. Looks like May 23 and 24 were Sat and SUN. May 25 2009 was Holiday too. SO basically only people from May 22, 2009 will be current next bulletin.
Although they mention it will be monthly movement but we have seen what they say moved for that quarter.
IDK when will July 1 be current. I'm just Sensei as per q, may be other gurus will help you understand when ur date will be current.
Spec - how come China, South Korea EB2 allotments got more than 2800 (From the CP and AOS), when EB2 India had the most backlogged?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Corona Virus - Do you think Corona Virus will have an impact on visa movement? Like ROW demand slows down, EB2I or EB3I get more spillover?
You forgot to ask about Nigeria travel ban and Public charge rule. These in combination with COVID19 will have some effect on FB visas mostly. I think CP will see it first. AOS applicants are already in the system. So that takes time. No sure about EB visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by newsletter1978
The Muslim ban countries along with Nigeria took about 10K FB visas last year (source Aljazeera). So most of the missing demand might be absorbed by other ROW countries.
My understanding of the public charge rule is that it only applies for AOS applicants and does not apply for Consular processing. There are very few family AOS applicants.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketfast
There's only a minimal disturbance expected in numerical limitations categories like FB and EB. It may have great impact in Immediate Relatives category but they are not constrained by numerical limitations. So, in all, the benefits to EB category is minimal if any.
Can I ask why ?
You will be surprised.
Read this report which is from last year when public charge rule was not so strong.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...-trump-1637094
In 2018 (when USCIS sent memo for CP for public charge..no change for AOS) see the denials due to public charge from just 3 countries : India 1254, Pakistan 1246, Bangladesh 1502
Most of them must be from immediate family based visa so not a direct impact.
But from this year I think you will see lot more denials due to public charge.
When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?
If that person applied under FB category then any unused number will be spilled into EB.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Yes they will increase the allocation next year. But benefit to EB2I or EB3I will be minimal based on the arbitrary allocation of over 7% to China and ROW when the most backlogged country is India and we have thousands who already filed 485 and still did not get greened and thousands more waiting even before 2015 dates to submit 485 applications.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Not sure if someone has made this point, but can you imagine the thousands of people who have waited 10+ yrs who have to go repeatedly for H1 stamping in India and other consulates? We and the State Dept. have to keep gathering and processing the same paperwork over and over and over again, especially many who have been with the same employer a decade or more with no changes in their situation. Such a colossal waste of money and human effort all around... just absurd. Last year when I went for stamping, there was this really young visa officer and he was younger than me and he looked at my file and just literally dropped his jaw and asked me, "You are saying you have been in the US for close to 20 years out of your 40 and still have to keep renewing visas? I am not even going to ask you any questions". And I kid you not, he literally did not even ask me a single question and approved it.
That is the cost. But it is not as random as you may think. There are special interests who like immigration status quo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
If Corona Virus does not wipe out the human population, i still think this will slow down ROW demand and benefit EB2I and EB3I.
If Trump is right that heat kills the virus then Sahara desert will become the hottest property market. Literally :)Quote:
Originally Posted by newsletter1978
This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think that's generally true. Whether it is true with CoVid-19 is yet to be seen. Particularly if this an engineered virus (which is what I suspect given how it was a hush hush operation) then we all going to be royally screwed.Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
There maybe some truth to it. Singapore reported its first case about 3 weeks ago. But, their cases yet to cross 100. It's 90/75 weather for them. Actually, when Singapore reported its first case, people feared it's going to be worse since Singapore mostly relied on public transit. But, it's not that severe when you compare Tehran (60/45F weather) and Italy (60/45F or less weather).Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
Remains to be seen that's the case in US as well. We've had around 80F last few days here. But it's going to get little cooler next week.:rolleyes:
Considering, monthly immigrant visa issuance statistics of Jan-2020, total EB3-I Consular Processing so far in FY 2020 is 612
I am not sure how 612 for FY2020 compare to FY2019, Is this number considered too high ?
It's about the same. FY 19 603 vs FY 20 612. They keep coming. All these were before Jan 1,2009. No one knows how many CP cases are pending still. It looks really scary to see all these demand for EB-3 India CP.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
FY 20 CP numbers are on track to match FY 19 numbers. Unless EB3-India is assigned more than the regular quota, it's not going anywhere this FY 20.
This link makes it sound like there’s 20000+Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
CP immigrant visa applications pending in EB3-I before 11/2010. No idea if it’s true.
https://immigrationroad.com/green-ca...entory-nvc.php
Quote:
Originally Posted by ferric
Such report just lists that how many folks are awaiting GC via CP. Below is latest report from 2019, which lists India EB2 at 15k+ and EB3 at 20k+. If my knowledge is correct about CP process then what happens is post I-140 approval your application is sent to NVC which wait for dates to be current before your application is sent to consulate for Interview. This report list that particular wait-list which can be from 2009 till Nov 1st 2019. Now how this number are distributed that I have no idea. May be its even or top heavy i.e more in 2010s or bottom heavy i.e in past few yrs.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2019.pdf
For me good data point is I-140 approval as both Eb2 and eb3 needs that approval. As per that report between 2008-2010, 48K I-140 were approved (2009+2010+ half of 2011) between Eb2 and Eb3. Lets round this up to 40K with assumption that duplicates with job change, both spouses in line resulting in 8k filing. If multiplier of 2.5 is applied then we are looking at 100K GC to clear till 2010.
2008 + half of 2009 is cleared from EB2 (approx 33k visa), EB3 (my guess says need 24k visa) is still going thru as dates were moved in past 1-1.5 years. We are in long haul to clear dates till 2010 for both eb2 and eb3
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
PS: Not an expert, just taking a logical guess here in absence of other data.
EB3-I CP issuance for FY 2019 was 1676.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
For FY 2020, issuance is occuring at the same rate.
If there is no spillover, then CP may consume approx 60% (~1700) of allocated numbers for FY 2020
Do Anyone has idea how the current Perm approval trend is compare to last year around the same time frame?
I used to check it on www.permchecker.com but it appears the data isn't updated since September 2019
Thanks
Thanks all and specially Q for keeping this site active and separate from biased opinions. Still keeping track on various issues
Finally Became US citizen in February month. GC in September 2014. Minneapolis, application to citizenship finished in about 7 months
Wow. Time flies. Many congratulations. I haven't yet summoned the courage to give up my Indian Passport. But I am getting there!! I am a minority in my house.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
April Bulletin out:
EB1I 01MAY15
EB2I 25MAY09
EB3I 22JAN09
EB-3 India is stagnant because of consistently high CP numbers month after month. With no SO from EB-3 ROW, this is not going anywhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by tendlya
I have stopped following the VB knowing there will be no movement! Depressing to say the least..
One thing is clear from Filing dates which hasn't changed since it was imposed, there is not much demand/filers left for EB2-I (7/1/09) and EB3-I (2/1/2010).
And Eb2I moved 3 days. Interesting part is those 3 days were Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
< >Quote:
Originally Posted by NJMavarick
US Missions in India have cancelled all immigrant and non-immigrant visa appointments from Monday, March 16 onward until further notice.
What impact, if any, would COVID-19 have on EB2 date movement. Not being insensitive but just curious.
I believe EB3I CP numbers were about 1600 last year. Assuming that the virus shuts down CP for two months, we might see ([1600/12]*2 = 267) visas for AOS EB3I. Guesstimate. How it is going to affect overall demands? No idea. Situation is still fluid.Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue_fairy
you are right. the main impact will be ROW CP, thats not utlized, and spills over to EB3 india. Also another likely impact will be Family based petitions, at go unused till september, and get added to EB for next year. Like everything else, this is difficult to predict, and only time will give the final answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
ROW proably gets around 25-30 K visas..so if 10% of that goes unutilized, that would mean 2.5K-3K additional visas for india in each category, which could move the needle a bit.
I was curious about it too. I think there will be some impact of it directly and indirectly. There will be benefit of lower CP filing. Moreover, if this brings in recession, then likely reduce number of cases in EB1C category benefiting EB2 and EB3I. This will benefit for those who will weather the storm! Good luck to all.