EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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03-11-2012, 02:57 PM
cool_dude

Priority Date

Hi,
My priority date is June 2011 and I140 is approved.When do you think I will be able to apply for I-485.
03-11-2012, 03:33 PM
Desperate8

My Vaccination details

Some one sent me a PM , I am not sure how to reply a PM back and so this blog, may be it is useful to many others

I took MMR , FLU SHOT and TB Test

On the other hand , my wife being pregnant then did just her physicals none of the shots / tests above.

The doctor checked the waiver box in I693 for my wife and had a note which said pregnant blah blah...

In my case I have to take MMR again after 6 months and so he had marked Insufficient time interval.

Birth Certificates - My registration was done in the same month and year of birth but we didnot have a copy so had to request one , got one with the issued date of a recent date. , I didnot submit any affidavits.

For my wife we got affidavits
03-11-2012, 05:00 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Engineer,

This is a free forum and hence you have right to disagree/not like any/all of my comments. I fully respect that.
I would like to point out that may be you have taken my comment out of context. All I am saying is at I485 stage whether you have MS or you are direct employee etc etc may not seem to matter much. And may rightly so. Because there are earlier stages (PERM, I140) whether these factors carry weight(and rightly so IMO). At least I have not seen any co-relation between these factors and early approvals. If you have some data please point me to that. ( I would love to see these criteria being applicable to be low hanging fruit at I485 stage because that will make me one)

As for IT people getting GC- I think you know its pure demand supply. There is/was shortage of those skills here and that's why more people getting through that channel. And while every one should be against fraud of any kind in any system I think you are making few assumptions while criticizing IT Consultants (or at least sound like that). One of classic assumption seem to be like IT Consultants don't have MS. Let me tell you my friend in my team there are multiple consultants working and at least 50% of them have MS in US.

I am with you on this.
There are a set of criteria that need to be met at each stage. Appropriate educational and technical qualifications criteria are required in the I140 stage. I personally have a MS and MBA and work for a Big 4 management consulting firm and am perhaps 3-4 yrs away from making Partner in my Firm. I got my I-140 approved in 15 days - and it wasn't premium processing - because all that is relevant there.

In the 485 stage, the criteria are very different. Here it is more social criteria vs employment criteria. It fundamentally is "are you a threat to US population". Hence, all the background checks, health checks, BC checks. Qualifications don't (and shouldn't) mean anything at the 485 stage.
03-11-2012, 06:11 PM
eb2ODer

CO strategically is slowly killing our hopes... He thought going through a phase of denial "April bulletin is still not out, IVR is in error", confusion "Is it really stalled? or is it a March VB date??!" and slow acceptance "PDF version shows the same COD, yet let me wait for the actual update on VB, Mumbai consulate webpages" - is better to avoid mass hysteria :confused: :p

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

no man since the voice recording is done and the pdf is done, I am pretty sure it's already gone out to all consulates around the world via cable. I can't comprehend why its not yet on the web page, really unpardonable.
03-11-2012, 09:16 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by eb2ODer

CO strategically is slowly killing our hopes... He thought going through a phase of denial "April bulletin is still not out, IVR is in error", confusion "Is it really stalled? or is it a March VB date??!" and slow acceptance "PDF version shows the same COD, yet let me wait for the actual update on VB, Mumbai consulate webpages" - is better to avoid mass hysteria :confused:

Seriously?
Folks - please step away from the ledge. We knew this was coming.
03-11-2012, 10:49 PM
eb2ODer

Just wanted to post something lighter to break away from earlier posts... guess my joke was too flatline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

Seriously?
Folks - please step away from the ledge. We knew this was coming.
03-11-2012, 11:14 PM
qesehmk

No harm eb2ODer. Generally speaking people here are quite tolerant and appreciative. I am sure nobody means to disrespect or disregard.

Quote:

Originally Posted by eb2ODer

Just wanted to post something lighter to break away from earlier posts... guess my joke was too flatline.
03-11-2012, 11:45 PM
operas

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desperate8

Some one sent me a PM , I am not sure how to reply a PM back and so this blog, may be it is useful to many others

I took MMR , FLU SHOT and TB Test

On the other hand , my wife being pregnant then did just her physicals none of the shots / tests above.

The doctor checked the waiver box in I693 for my wife and had a note which said pregnant blah blah...

In my case I have to take MMR again after 6 months and so he had marked Insufficient time interval.

Birth Certificates - My registration was done in the same month and year of birth but we didnot have a copy so had to request one , got one with the issued date of a recent date. , I didnot submit any affidavits.

For my wife we got affidavits

Thanks.. that was me.. :) 5 months to go.. and Im gonna be a dad.. Thanks for the information.
03-12-2012, 12:32 AM
eb2ODer

Thanks Q! :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

No harm eb2ODer. Generally speaking people here are quite tolerant and appreciative. I am sure nobody means to disrespect or disregard.
03-12-2012, 08:32 AM
aGCHopefull

Hello everyone,

I have quick questions about the affadvits required (from parents) to support the late registered BC

Do we need to have those affadavits on stamp paper or can it be done on a legal paper (the green one in India)?

Do we need 2 affadavits one from father and other from mother?

In either case it has to be notarized, right?

Please advise.

Thanks,
03-12-2012, 09:18 AM
vgraj1

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

Hi Teddy, If 35K SOFAD clears visa demand upto PD 01-JAN-2009 for EB2I in FY 2012, and we assume there is another 30K SOFAD in FY 2013, upto what PD for EB2I will this 30K suffice?
03-12-2012, 09:21 AM
vgraj1

On a lighter side, President Obama is facing some issue regarding his birth certificate, please see the link below (hope it comes up):

http://blog.beliefnet.com/watchwoman...term=gmail.com
03-12-2012, 09:22 AM
vishnu

DoS visa bulletin for April now officially up on DoS site.
Gurus - why is China still at May 2010 when they've had FAR fewer EB2 apps than India and as per PERM etc, will likely continue to have far fewer EB2 apps.
03-12-2012, 09:23 AM
mesan123

Hi,

You can take one single affidavit from both parents. and it has to be on stamp paper( can be 10rs stamp paper).
you can find more details about the format and rest of the details in birth certficate link below.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ficate-Related

Quote:

Originally Posted by aGCHopefull

Hello everyone,

I have quick questions about the affadvits required (from parents) to support the late registered BC

Do we need to have those affadavits on stamp paper or can it be done on a legal paper (the green one in India)?

Do we need 2 affadavits one from father and other from mother?

In either case it has to be notarized, right?

Please advise.

Thanks,
03-12-2012, 09:31 AM
bee369

Hi Guys,
I received my receipt notices on Friday and I observed that one letter ( first letter) in my last name was typed wrong.
My application was correct, I just checked the copy of application I sent to Attorney.
and also my wife's I765 contains wrong DOB.* Are these normal ? Should I call the customer service and make them correct ?
*
Can you please advise ?
03-12-2012, 09:39 AM
usernameisnotvalid

I don't think this are normal. Ask your attorney or call customer service asap.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bee369

Hi Guys,
I received my receipt notices on Friday and I observed that one letter ( first letter) in my last name was typed wrong.
My application was correct, I just checked the copy of application I sent to Attorney.
and also my wife's I765 contains wrong DOB.* Are these normal ? Should I call the customer service and make them correct ?
*
Can you please advise ?
03-12-2012, 09:40 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by vishnu

DoS visa bulletin for April now officially up on DoS site.
Gurus - why is China still at May 2010 when they've had FAR fewer EB2 apps than India and as per PERM etc, will likely continue to have far fewer EB2 apps.

When spillover visas are being given under INA Section 202(a)(5), the Cut Off Dates must move together, since the visas are allocated purely on the basis of the earliest Priority Date.

Since EB2-I has more than EB2-C, they will receive more.

While the initial Preference numbers (2,803 each) are being used, the dates can move at a different pace.

CO explained it in the May 2011 VB.
03-12-2012, 09:45 AM
vishnu

appreciate the response Spec!
03-12-2012, 09:46 AM
just_curious

Official Bulletin Released for April 2012

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Interestingly they also have "May 2012 (Coming soon)". Is it something new/update happening at their IT systems? I haven't noticed this before...
03-12-2012, 09:52 AM
skpanda

they just mess it up sometimes.... it should be -

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012

This month's visa bulletin: March 2012

Archived visa bulletins: February 2012 and before

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_curious

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Interestingly they also have "May 2012 (Coming soon)". Is it something new/update happening at their IT systems? I haven't noticed this before...
03-12-2012, 10:05 AM
harapatta

looks like its been corrected ..
03-12-2012, 10:08 AM
aGCHopefull

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

they just mess it up sometimes.... it should be -

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012

This month's visa bulletin: March 2012

Archived visa bulletins: February 2012 and before

They heard you saying aloud :)
03-12-2012, 10:09 AM
tackle

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_curious

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Interestingly they also have "May 2012 (Coming soon)". Is it something new/update happening at their IT systems? I haven't noticed this before...

I glanced through the bulletin and it looks like there is no explanation as to why there was no movement even though the demand is so low. Typical!
03-12-2012, 10:09 AM
aGCHopefull

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

Hi,

You can take one single affidavit from both parents. and it has to be on stamp paper( can be 10rs stamp paper).
you can find more details about the format and rest of the details in birth certficate link below.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ficate-Related

Thanks mesan123.
03-12-2012, 11:40 AM
just_curious

Quote:

Originally Posted by aGCHopefull

They heard you saying aloud :)

Guessing.. they are following this forum as much as we..
03-12-2012, 02:20 PM
nishant2200

Back to Predictions Calculations.

Summary of forum agreeing to so far in general.

April VB stalls, true to CO's trend timeline prediction. This might be followed by retrogression later on, and I think GC issuance should be clearing 2008 and FY 2013 should begin around Jan 1st 2009. Some February filers may also get lucky pretty soon if retrogression is not forthcoming soon. 35K SOFAD, with higher DD than we initially expected, as well as higher SO.

Based on the NVC fee notices, which have gone into 2011, I do feel that in FY 2013, CO will whence artificially move again, and get into this territory. So folks who could not get current in April VB and so on, for this FY 2012, should not get disappointed. This FY we have seen that NVC fee notices are given a lot of importance by DOS to hold true to them. Until whatever date NVC notice has gone out this year, next FY, those dates may get current, very high chance.

ps: I have moved some recent posts which had potential of being contentious and diverting from thread to General Immigration Discussion thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...al+immigration
03-12-2012, 02:47 PM
H1GC140

I am greened.

Nishant, You are right, 3rd week of March. Got CPO mail for both me and my wife just 5 mins before.

I am always thankful to Nishant, Q, Teddy, V and others on this forum.

Thank you,
SK

NSC
RD-12/27/11
ND-12/29/11
FP-2/10/12
EAD-2/8/11
I-485-3/12/12

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Back to Predictions Calculations.

Summary of forum agreeing to so far in general.

April VB stalls, true to CO's trend timeline prediction. This might be followed by retrogression later on, and I think GC issuance should be clearing 2008 and FY 2013 should begin around Jan 1st 2009. Some February filers may also get lucky pretty soon if retrogression is not forthcoming soon. 35K SOFAD, with higher DD than we initially expected, as well as higher SO.

Based on the NVC fee notices, which have gone into 2011, I do feel that in FY 2013, CO will whence artificially move again, and get into this territory. So folks who could not get current in April VB and so on, for this FY 2012, should not get disappointed. This FY we have seen that NVC fee notices are given a lot of importance by DOS to hold true to them. Until whatever date NVC notice has gone out this year, next FY, those dates may get current, very high chance.

ps: I have moved some recent posts which had potential of being contentious and diverting from thread to General Immigration Discussion thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...al+immigration
03-12-2012, 02:47 PM
narendarrao

Trackitt Users PD122008,Shydud,DEC1108,GC200812 with PD in DEC,2008 got approved. Lucky guys.
I don't understand in what order they are approving these cases but we should not be surprised to see someone with PD in 2009 receiving approval in FY 2012.
03-12-2012, 06:06 PM
eb2visa

I heared a news from my employer that there are less number of PERMS filed in 2011 due to wage certification issues. There was a case on wage certifications, with that there were very less number of PERMS filed in 2011. If the dates starts moving it should move very fast.

Thought it would be helpful for 2011 filers.

Mine is 2009
03-12-2012, 06:08 PM
eb2visa

Just googled and got the below link:

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.html

http://totallyexpat.com/global-immig...ge-processing/

Quote:

Originally Posted by eb2visa

I heared a news from my employer that there are less number of PERMS filed in 2011 due to wage certification issues. There was a case on wage certifications, with that there were very less number of PERMS filed in 2011. If the dates starts moving it should move very fast.

Thought it would be helpful for 2011 filers.

Mine is 2009
03-12-2012, 07:20 PM
Desperate8

What is going on ?? Confused!!!

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!
03-12-2012, 07:31 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desperate8

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!

Desperate8,
I know you are very "desperate" to see your physical cad, but not sure why you called USCIS? I hope L2 office did not punch the correct receipt number.

Either way you should be receiving Welcome notice and Card/Document production letter(s) in the mail by this weekend, unless your on-line case status changes to something else.
03-12-2012, 07:33 PM
mesan123

Not to make you more tensed...there was one more person in Trackkitt( user id : xlxoel ) who mentioned the same problem.......

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-to-be-worried

just sharing the information .....

GURUS and people who already got there GC's can answer you better on this ....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desperate8

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!
03-12-2012, 07:33 PM
nishant2200

Don't worry. It takes time for various databases to update, as well as CPO and Decision are in fact discrete processes. You are done. I have seen a gap of upto 4 days between CPO and Decision at times.

My lawyer had called USCIS for status after I had informed him of my CPO, and he had replied back to me saying: USCIS is in the process of approving your green card, I have confirmed that. Note that he did not say your green card is approved. he does have his own liaison at the immigration offices and does not go through the typical customer service we use.

CPO means it's over, you will get your GC.

Typical cycle is: CPO (card ordered), CPO (duplicate), Decision, CPO (this one says card has been mailed and will get in 30 days), Decision, CPO (USPS Picked up), CPO (USPS Delivered).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desperate8

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!
03-12-2012, 07:40 PM
Desperate8

Thanks all

Veni - Yes you are right I was desperate - I hope my call doesnot do anything bad :( (I am always optimistic but when it comes to me never : )

Nishant - Thank you for your explaination - I now have to confidence in me.

Others - Thank you , no words to say how mindful you guys are while explaining.

God bless you all!!!!
03-12-2012, 08:17 PM
shaumack

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desperate8

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

--------------------------------------------------

Help!!!

Here is the deal. When case is approved, you will get approval email and SMS because as soon as Immigration Officer approves the case, your file is sent back to the staging officer, who will update Webmaster (uscis.webmaster@dhs.gov) who in turn will update the CRIS. Staging officer will later once Card production is done or so ordered at some point will update the internal system. L2 Officers system is one of the last that are updated (counter intuitive). You can search forums and there are number of cases where it is apparent that L2 Officer's system is updated 2-3 days after such emails. So it is also advisable to call L2 Officer only after 2-3 days to get tracking number. Anything before that means you will hear update on the case status system is not true and your case is still pending, which is totally false.
03-12-2012, 08:42 PM
girishgkulkarni

I got the I 485 Approval on Saturday...

PD 23 Jan 2008 India EB2
Perm was approved in Dec 2010 after being Denied twice and Appealed twice.
I 140 was approved in Jan 2011

Thanks to All you guys for the predictions etc etc.

God Bless u all...

Girish
03-12-2012, 10:24 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by H1GC140

I am greened.

Nishant, You are right, 3rd week of March. Got CPO mail for both me and my wife just 5 mins before.

I am always thankful to Nishant, Q, Teddy, V and others on this forum.

Thank you,
SK

NSC
RD-12/27/11
ND-12/29/11
FP-2/10/12
EAD-2/8/11
I-485-3/12/12

Quote:

Originally Posted by girishgkulkarni

I got the I 485 Approval on Saturday...

PD 23 Jan 2008 India EB2
Perm was approved in Dec 2010 after being Denied twice and Appealed twice.
I 140 was approved in Jan 2011

Thanks to All you guys for the predictions etc etc.

God Bless u all...

Girish

Many Congratulations to you and your families. Enjoy green life.
03-12-2012, 11:00 PM
Desperate8

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Many Congratulations to you and your families. Enjoy green life.

All the best to all of you , hope you enjoy the greenery of life.
03-13-2012, 08:00 AM
bee369

Quote:

Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid

I don't think this are normal. Ask your attorney or call customer service asap.

Thanks, my wife and I called USCIS and opened SR to correct those typos, do u think this SR may delay FP notice ?

And also GURUs I need an advise, I put my case on this forum before my PD is current but now it's current and I filed 485 on Mar 1st let me iterate.

My PD is Apr 2010 and I live in IL and work in IL too, now our team moving to NY head quarters but same role and same team etc, only location change, when our HR and Attorney discussed about move they r confident that I won't get GC within 180 days and they said I can move to NY now and they can apply AC121 after 180 days. Only issue will be if I get GC withi 180 days then I need to relocate back to IL office but they r saying it is very unlikely that my 485 will be approved in 180 days. What do u guys think ?
My PD is Apr 20 2010 and EB2-I.

If no problem with move, should I wait until FP is done and then move, I am little afraid to move before FP and EAD/AP. are approved. Original plan is to move by Mar end but I am thinking to postpone until Apr end thinking FP and EAD /AP will be done.

Not sure my company moves me back to IL location if my 485 approved in 180 days, what will happen if they don't? I asked them to no to move 180 days from Mar 1st but they r saying why I worry about unlikely situation that I get gC in 180 days, plz advise

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