EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

I am not economics major, definitions aside, I was just an example that came to mind.

I do not believe that for USCIS to make money, they would ask DOS to move dates incorrectly, just my opinion.

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

You are correct that the USCIS comes under the DHS, and there may be multiple ways of increasing revenue.

I however do not believe that automation will increase revenue. Revenue is money coming IN the door, and automation will reduce money going OUT the door.

If I am not mistaken, the USCIS memo to congress indicated that they anticipate revenue to increase. USCIS is of course not a for-profit enterprise, so it can't be that they were indicating that they anticipate revenue to be the same, but they anticipate income to increase via automation.

Is my understanding mistaken?

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I am sure many of us have started the VB Stalking already. For the uninitiated, two of the more popular options are:

1. Mumbai Consulate's PD Page: http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
This gets updated on Thu night usually, well before the Fri morning release of VB in US. It has been on the dot last couple VBs - however, it once copy pasted wrong info too. Anyways - my money is on this coming first. People working late tonight - make sure your F5 key works :-)

2. VB's PDF Page: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Feb2012.pdf
DoS follows a consistent naming convention for their PDF web files - so if some intern manages ti upload the PDF before time then the link above would be live before official issue of VB. It has happened before - could happen again.

3. Well, nothing beats the real deal - the actual VB: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Do remember that since it is a short week, the VB might not come this Fri. However, I don't think DoS is taking into account the Jan first week data and like past couple times, the VB is already decided - so it might very well happen on Fri.

Guys

Any one with PD in June/July 2007 getting GC ? My case was filed at Texas center. I already got EAD/AP and was curious to know for how long I need to wait before I get my GC.

Thanks in advance for your answers

pappu's post on **: "Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly."

I wonder what he means by that....

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

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Page 315, post #4713 on the predictions thread.

Thanks much

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

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see this: http://****************.org/forum/fo...ns-ii-315.html

ya - it was kinda bizarre...no idea what they were referring to. anyway, we will wait and see...

Does ** have a say in the VB? How can they "propose" what to do? I thought VB was entirely at the discretion of CO. I didn't even know there would be discussions around it. This is very strange.

'Propose' seems the wrong word. Read 'Predict'.

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Originally Posted by devi_pd

Does ** have a say in the VB? How can they "propose" what to do? I thought VB was entirely at the discretion of CO. I didn't even know there would be discussions around it. This is very strange.

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Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

That's correct. There might be some insider information and they try to put a spin around it.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

'Propose' seems the wrong word. Read 'Predict'.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

That's correct. There might be some insider information and they try to put a spin around it.

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[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. ” —Former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

But as per natures law Truth prevails finally. Whoever helped to manipulate and influence the system not by allowed means have to answer finally for the sufferings of others. so UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS for knowns;)!

Wtf :)

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Originally Posted by immitime

[t]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. ” —former united states secretary of defense donald rumsfeld

but as per natures law truth prevails finally. Whoever helped to manipulate and influence the system not by allowed means have to answer finally for the sufferings of others. So unknown unknowns for knowns;)!

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I posted this in the relevant thread. Lets keep ** and Pappu (TOWCD) discussion in that thread. Thanks.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7634#post17634

PS> On second thoughts - since he is talking about PD in the coming VB - I guess the main thread works too.

My opinion, its all BS from him. He does not have any "new data of filings and approvals", he did not have any "discussions" and he surely does not "propose" anything.

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Originally Posted by essenel

pappu's post on **: "Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly."

I wonder what he means by that....

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Originally Posted by 28thJune2007

Guys

Any one with PD in June/July 2007 getting GC ? My case was filed at Texas center. I already got EAD/AP and was curious to know for how long I need to wait before I get my GC.

Thanks in advance for your answers

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My PD is June 25, 2007, still waiting for GC and my case was filed at VSC bur transfered to TSC in 2010.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

sportsfan

insider news or wild guess?

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based on NVC receipts.

Hi , Im new to this forum. Where do i find Demand Data for EB2?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
this page shows jan11 , india demand data is 150.. what does this means?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Hi everyone,

Happy new year to all.

Good luck to the first half of 2009 people - I don't want to be premature, but I think it is a given that the dates are going forward at least until June 2009 given the NVC receipt news.

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Sportsfan33, whats your guestimate on March 15,2010 PD?. I know it is too early to ask. I feel current EB2 rollercoaster may stop at Jun 2009( This is approx and there will be definetely retro to somewhere between mar to jun 2008. per Spec, PD 15-Jun-2009 makes 50k inventory,if USCICS trend is to make demand to 0 and start building agin to 50k then it may take 2 years to move further( 25k per year including SOFAD + 2800 per annum). Do you think PD moves further during 2013 seaon Oct 2012 to Mar 2013? I think we may need Mar 2012 Demand Data for further analysis.

You need to consult an attorney. Domestic violence crime makes you an inadmissible alien potentially.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/us...7----000-.html

It mentions:
(E) Crimes of domestic violence, stalking, or violation of protection order, crimes against children and
(i) Domestic violence, stalking, and child abuse Any alien who at any time after admission is convicted of a crime of domestic violence, a crime of stalking, or a crime of child abuse, child neglect, or child abandonment is deportable. For purposes of this clause, the term “crime of domestic violence” means any crime of violence (as defined in section 16 of title 18) against a person committed by a current or former spouse of the person, by an individual with whom the person shares a child in common, by an individual who is cohabiting with or has cohabited with the person as a spouse, by an individual similarly situated to a spouse of the person under the domestic or family violence laws of the jurisdiction where the offense occurs, or by any other individual against a person who is protected from that individual’s acts under the domestic or family violence laws of the United States or any State, Indian tribal government, or unit of local government.


You can read more on:
http://www.justanswer.com/immigratio...12-01-03%7C833

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Originally Posted by reachme_s

Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by sathya4x4

Hi , Im new to this forum. Where do i find Demand Data for EB2?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
this page shows jan11 , india demand data is 150.. what does this means?

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That document is 2 months old. Usually, they issue demand data before visa bulletin gets released. But last month, visa bulletin was released without the demand data. The numbers in the chart you linked to indicate the number of applicants that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa number to be available. Now, you may ask what pre-adjudicated means? It means that their applications have been processed, FBI name-check has been completed and they are found eligible for a GC. Once a visa number is available, the applicants that are pre-adjudicated will be issued GC (probably in the order of the priority dates). Once an application is submitted, under normal scenarios, it usually takes about 90 dates for the application to be pre-adjudicated and show up under "Demand".

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am real sorry buddy, but I am no where close to an expert in answering your question. However I will just recapture some progression in how came to this point to put things in perspective:

- At the beginning of the FY (or some time before that), Gurus had feared that November 2007 was the outlier for the GC and the dates were projected to be around March 2008 for FY 2012.
- With rapid movement through November and green card issuance, the GC outlier was pushed to Jan 2008 and dates were predicted to be around June 2008.
- Then came the Jan VB bomb that threw everyone off track. Gurus here have some interesting 2D tables that show the estimate GC outlier for a given DD and spillover level. CM on his blog did some similar analysis. At this point, Gurus think the GC issuance date is around March 2008.

No one predicted dates would cross 2009. Similarly, no one can predict if they cross 2010. Can it happen? Sure, it can. If I were you, I would keep my documents ready, but not spend too much time looking for VBs "just yet".

So from November 2007 to March 2008 is a *hugh* relief. It's not just 4 months, it's an estimated disappearing act of a projected demand of 10000 (assuming 2500 per month was peak demand as was estimated before). Everyone should be happy no matter what their PD is. Also, the numbers we are all citing are very rough guesses without the demand data.

So hold on and relax. The worst case, you should be current some time in 2013, which is no small feat. Look, in 2009, everyone was projecting a 6 to 7 year (or some pessimists were going as far as 9 years) wait time for EB2-IC past July 2007. That has all changed. Enjoy the bright days...yours will come soon.

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Thanks for the analysis, sometime in 2013 is Ok for me, hoping for the same.though 2008 got huge perm numbers like 2010, it wiped in matter of 30 days<Dec'11 and Jan'12 Bulletins>. 2009 being light year, anything can happen.

It has not been wiped - it has just been called to stand in the queue. When their turn actually comes at the counter is still anybody's guess. In any case 2013 is probably a good estimate for you to at least get an EAD.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Thanks for the analysis, sometime in 2013 is Ok for me, hoping for the same.though 2008 got huge perm numbers like 2010, it wiped in matter of 30 days<Dec'11 and Jan'12 Bulletins>. 2009 being light year, anything can happen.

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Friend’s looks like the upcoming VB could go either way; it is going to be based entirely on the agencies discretion.
Positives -
- Someone with a March 2008 PD got an actual appointment from the Mumbai consulate. Spec posted this news.
- NVC notices being received by mid to late 2009 PD’s. Suninphx posted this news.
- General news and rumors that dates will advance in Feb & Mar bulletins.
- HR 3012 passage likelihood or 2 year inventory theory.

2009 is the leanest of all years so anything is possible.
Negatives –
- Actual SOFAD maybe lower this year and may really range between 20 and 25K. Out of that a minimum of 10K has been used.
- Approvals for Oct filers have dried down, there were a couple of approvals for NSC filers. TSC no one seems to have been approved a few people reported misleading statuses.
- EB1, EB2 ROW and EB3 and older EB2 I/C approvals are coming by steadily these cases have sufficient numbers or may have had a cap number allocated earlier. This may be indicative of the fact that EB2 I/C have had a run further than the Nett generated SOFAD so far.
- Already 40K numbers are in this includes 30K intake and 10K usage at minimum.
Let’s wait for the VB, all the best to everyone, I sincerely hope that the dream run continues and more and more people get to file EAD / AP.