EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Considering that the difference between 01JUL2009 and 01NOV2009 is just ~6K visas (thinnest demand period in recent history), EB2ROW approvals continue to be very sluggish (just 21 trackitt approvals in July so far) with no recent pickup in pace, even EB2I approvals in July being very slow (less than 2K visas issued so far in July), many EB2I cases bogged down in RFE process (not yet received RFE, not yet replied to RFE etc) - CO is perhaps looking at a decent amount of leftover supply to be finished in the last VB of the year. Plus 01NOV2009 is a logical point given the RFEs - I am holding hope for a 01NOV2009 PD for EB2I in the Sept VB.

/Wishful Thinking!

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Originally Posted by aquatican

From most of predictions from the last bulletin ( release Jul 10)
it seems like Conservative is Mar 2009 and Wildly Optimistic is Nov 2009.

If we split the difference we get Jul 2009. In the next bulletin for September ( Upcoming Aug 10) I think there is a 50% chance we will get to this date with some + ve winds ( Slow approval speed, EB 2 ROW spillover)
and some -ve winds ( Extra #s for Chinese quote, Full utilization of EB5)

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All, I have a situation which is unusual, but may be someone has seen it before,

My 485 files in Feb 2012, My Priority Date is Dec-2008, last 2 years my case has not moved from status acceptance. I have not even received any RFE yet. I took an Infopass appointment and asked them what is going on, even they have no idea, they are saying write to Texas Service Center and ask them to expediate it as the priority date is current next month. I have requested my Lawyer to do so.

My EAD\AP was renewed twice without problem.
ANY ADVICE FROM ANYONE?

Thank you in Advance !!!

This is the first time in my recall that someone has reported Medical RFE for EB2I PD post 01NOV2009 - so I guess we gotta wait for some more evidence to emerge. The user who reported it does not seem to be a very active/established user - so lets wait and watch.

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Originally Posted by PDAUG052010

I have been a silent reader of this forum for years and this is my first post. Thanks to all the gurus for their in depth analysis and contribution.

I just want to bring everybody's attention that a 2010 Feb EB2I PD has received RFE for medicals and EVL. It looks very odd. Is this just a one off instance?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...009-matt-gurus

See Post # 5.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Considering that the difference between 01JUL2009 and 01NOV2009 is just ~6K visas (thinnest demand period in recent history), EB2ROW approvals continue to be very sluggish (just 21 trackitt approvals in July so far) with no recent pickup in pace, even EB2I approvals in July being very slow (less than 2K visas issued so far in July), many EB2I cases bogged down in RFE process (not yet received RFE, not yet replied to RFE etc) - CO is perhaps looking at a decent amount of leftover supply to be finished in the last VB of the year. Plus 01NOV2009 is a logical point given the RFEs - I am holding hope for a 01NOV2009 PD for EB2I in the Sept VB.

/Wishful Thinking!

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TSC pace is very slow so far in July and if this continues in August, USCIS may not use all available visas. Any chance that dates move into 2010 in September bulletin? Some one in Trackitt received Medical RFE for priority date in Feb 2010.

As a matter of pure numbers, a move to mid-2009 is sufficient. Crazy situations can make a move to late 2009 possible (and in my wishful thinking - more probable than possible). But to 2010 seems as a very very remote possibility. Apart from the one report, we don't have confirmation of RFEs for post 01NOV2009. Plus now its pretty late in the FY to *start* sending RFE for a new time period. Still - weirder things have happened!

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Originally Posted by bluelabel

TSC pace is very slow so far in July and if this continues in August, USCIS may not use all available visas. Any chance that dates move into 2010 in September bulletin? Some one in Trackitt received Medical RFE for priority date in Feb 2010.

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Originally Posted by gc_dec_2008

All, I have a situation which is unusual, but may be someone has seen it before,

My 485 files in Feb 2012, My Priority Date is Dec-2008, last 2 years my case has not moved from status acceptance. I have not even received any RFE yet. I took an Infopass appointment and asked them what is going on, even they have no idea, they are saying write to Texas Service Center and ask them to expediate it as the priority date is current next month. I have requested my Lawyer to do so.

My EAD\AP was renewed twice without problem.
ANY ADVICE FROM ANYONE?

Thank you in Advance !!!

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If I were you I would just wait to receive the GC in next 2 months. No news is a good news in your case.

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Originally Posted by bluelabel

TSC pace is very slow so far in July and if this continues in August, USCIS may not use all available visas. Any chance that dates move into 2010 in September bulletin? Some one in Trackitt received Medical RFE for priority date in Feb 2010.

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Moving dates aggressively will only help to use up all visas if there was enough time to process all (+new) applications. This year is different as most applicants got RFEs and they need be processed. At this point, there is no dearth of pending applications, what is lacking is time/manpower to process all those applications/RFEs.

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Originally Posted by gc_dec_2008

I have not even received any RFE yet. I took an Infopass appointment and asked them what is going on, even they have no idea, they are saying write to Texas Service Center and ask them to expediate it as the priority date is current next month. I have requested my Lawyer to do so.

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I have seen at least one 2012 filer getting approved without any RFE. Your case could be the same.

That is a very interesting observation. I wonder if the slow processing and the fact that moving dates will bring in new demand ( which cannot translate into Actual Visa Number usage) is a factor for CO.
IMHO it would be tragic if EB2I has wasted numbers.

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

Moving dates aggressively will only help to use up all visas if there was enough time to process all (+new) applications. This year is different as most applicants got RFEs and they need be processed. At this point, there is no dearth of pending applications, what is lacking is time/manpower to process all those applications/RFEs.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I have no idea on how it could be TSC. May be somebody could help you to figure out why! Did you double check your RN, LIN/SRC?

Did you file Concurrently both I-140 and I-485 ?

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Jurisdiction based on employer's location. Not based on employee's location. If you're a consultant living in CA and your consultancy is in TX, your 485 should be filed in TSC. Employee's location is irrelevant for jurisdiction.

Thank you Q ! that's positive thinking, the other side is someone has not looked at it, my first 485 application was rejected saying priority date not current and was later accepted. Risk of not doing is waiting another year?

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Originally Posted by gc_dec_2008

Thank you Q ! that's positive thinking, the other side is someone has not looked at it, my first 485 application was rejected saying priority date not current and was later accepted. Risk of not doing is waiting another year?

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As of now there is no risk because you are still within the window of approval. If 2-3 months pass by since your date is current and you don't receive approval then it might make sense to call congressman / uscis etc etc. But for now - I wouldn't do anything if I were you.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Considering that the difference between 01JUL2009 and 01NOV2009 is just ~6K visas (thinnest demand period in recent history), EB2ROW approvals continue to be very sluggish (just 21 trackitt approvals in July so far) with no recent pickup in pace, even EB2I approvals in July being very slow (less than 2K visas issued so far in July), many EB2I cases bogged down in RFE process (not yet received RFE, not yet replied to RFE etc) - CO is perhaps looking at a decent amount of leftover supply to be finished in the last VB of the year. Plus 01NOV2009 is a logical point given the RFEs - I am holding hope for a 01NOV2009 PD for EB2I in the Sept VB.

/Wishful Thinking!

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Hi IMDENG,

If Sept'14 VB goes to Nov'09, what does it mean for you and me, considering our PDs are in Aug'09? I responded to the obvious RFEs on July 24 and my case status updated to "RFE Response received". I am not sure if that means we get a GC in x number of days, or if it means something else, or nothing at all.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Jurisdiction based on employer's location. Not based on employee's location. If you're a consultant living in CA and your consultancy is in TX, your 485 should be filed in TSC. Employee's location is irrelevant for jurisdiction.

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Totally false!
It is always dependent on employee's residence. please see the link that Kanmani posted. It says "If you live in"... not "If you work in".

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Originally Posted by aquatican

That is a very interesting observation. I wonder if the slow processing and the fact that moving dates will bring in new demand ( which cannot translate into Actual Visa Number usage) is a factor for CO.
IMHO it would be tragic if EB2I has wasted numbers.

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Pre-adjudicated low hanging fruit scenario isn't applicable this year. If TSC has systematic problem(s) that can't be resolved in 2-3 months, CO has an option of moving dates aggressively in September because NSC is doing great. That way NSC can use up numbers and over all wastage can be minimized even as TSC filers will suffer. September 09' makes more sense now, doesn't it? :(

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Jurisdiction based on employer's location. Not based on employee's location. If you're a consultant living in CA and your consultancy is in TX, your 485 should be filed in TSC. Employee's location is irrelevant for jurisdiction.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Totally false!
It is always dependent on employee's residence. please see the link that Kanmani posted. It says "If you live in"... not "If you work in".

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Sorry. I stand corrected. Kanmani was right. I was under the impression that it's based on employer's location. I didn't know it because I never filed 485. Thanks for the info anyway.

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

Pre-adjudicated low hanging fruit scenario isn't applicable this year. If TSC has systematic problem(s) that can't be resolved in 2-3 months, CO has an option of moving dates aggressively in September because NSC is doing great. That way NSC can use up numbers and over all wastage can be minimized even as TSC filers will suffer. September 09' makes more sense now, doesn't it? :(

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You are just a ray of sunshine, aren't you? :)

If dates move till Sept 2009 it will be the slow pace of overall approvals, that will drive that movement. CO has to make that call in the next 2 weeks. Now if there is something indeed broken at TSC, the USCIS will re-route applications. They do that now to balance workload. Also, it will be public info pretty quick. I don't really see much of a risk where too many 2009 people will get approved before 2008 ppl

Sure, I would be really interested to hear !

Thanks Q ! gives a lot of hope !

It means that we will be part of the lottery. Only a fraction of late 2009 folks will get greened in Sept (and perhaps Oct) this year (if indeed dates reach that far, big if). If we are not part of the lucky few, then we continue to wait until next summer.

The status of RFE RR does not mean anything more than the fact that USCIS has received your RFE Response. Nothing beyond that - no X days or anything - although they do mention a 60 day time frame in the status message.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

Hi IMDENG,

If Sept'14 VB goes to Nov'09, what does it mean for you and me, considering our PDs are in Aug'09? I responded to the obvious RFEs on July 24 and my case status updated to "RFE Response received". I am not sure if that means we get a GC in x number of days, or if it means something else, or nothing at all.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

It means that we will be part of the lottery. Only a fraction of late 2009 folks will get greened in Sept (and perhaps Oct) this year (if indeed dates reach that far, big if). If we are not part of the lucky few, then we continue to wait until next summer.

The status of RFE RR does not mean anything more than the fact that USCIS has received your RFE Response. Nothing beyond that - no X days or anything - although they do mention a 60 day time frame in the status message.

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LOL Thanks. I feel like I am asking 1+1 in a class full of Math PHDs. What I was trying to feel is that is there a possibility that the dates move to Nov'09 in the next two bulletins, and we still do not get greened (assuming no problems with the application) due to 'timing' reasons?

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Originally Posted by self.coach

LOL Thanks. I feel like I am asking 1+1 in a class full of Math PHDs. What I was trying to feel is that is there a possibility that the dates move to Nov'09 in the next two bulletins, and we still do not get greened (assuming no problems with the application) due to 'timing' reasons?

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On a fun note, don't ask them, you could teach them 1+1, as higher level mathematics would mimic physics theorems. My core major is maths, not a PhD though.

Answer to your question, Yes . There is a good chance that we could be missed out, but we, late 2009 ers are keeping low profile on that thought, yet wishfully thinking (as imdeng says) we would get through this time !

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

On a fun note, don't ask them, you could teach them 1+1, as higher level mathematics would mimic physics theorems. My core major is maths, not a PhD though.

Answer to your question, Yes . There is a good chance that we could be missed out, but we, late 2009 ers are keeping low profile on that thought, yet wishfully thinking (as imdeng says) we would get through this time !

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Thanks @Imdeng and @Kanmani. நன்றி

I-485 Inventory is out. Any changes in calculations for date movement?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-July2014.pdf

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-July2014.pdf