If at all there would be a double dip...the immigration scenario would be same as what happened between 2008 and 2010...i.e. nothing big happens...Quote:
Originally Posted by kkurasa
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If at all there would be a double dip...the immigration scenario would be same as what happened between 2008 and 2010...i.e. nothing big happens...Quote:
Originally Posted by kkurasa
Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.
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Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agree with you soggadubhai.
I don't know much about economy but after the Kazarian Memo, EB1 approval has gone down or at least delayed.
One of my senior who is just a general internist had his EB1B approved within 27 days. His application was pretty weak to qualify for EB1B with only 1 or 2 publications but he and his attorney presented his case extremely well to USCIS backed up with some very strong recommendations letters from reputed institutions like Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, Johns Hopkins etc. This happened before Kazarian Memo came out.
Recently, one of my other senior who did his Pediatric Cardiology from University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, had 6-8 publications as first author and also had very strong recommendation letters, was rejected by USCIS saying that the evidence was not enough for the agency to qualify him to obtain GC under EB1B. It took 4 months to take this decision. He already has his GC filed under EB2NIW and has an approved I140.
The point is there are lot of people I know from my profession who had dubious credentials to qualify under EB1A or EB1B, and still had approvals. Post-Kazarian Memo, I am pretty sure they all would be either denied or at least delayed.
wohi me bhi boltihum...i saw few posts where they mentioned it has effect , but i couldnot decode how...may be i m bad in grasping stuff, so i asked the question again... mynumber calculation expertise is less( i am still in process of understanding the great people(fab 4) calculations , i am sure i will understand them 100% by the time i become current :) )
Anyway Q cleared my questions that it will be few more SOAFD if the recession happens....
by the way how was the potato curry:)
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Originally Posted by soggadu
Last 2 years were spent completely cleaning up EB2ROW and EB1 backlogs. And by backlog I mean not just 485, but all teh way back to labor.
That's is like doing a complete transmission flush on EB1 and EB2ROW pipeline. Without that EB2I would already be past Aug2007. Last year, when the 485 and 140 pipelines were already exhausted, there was PERM surge which hindered EB2IC chances.
Going forward Kazarian memo certainly has again done some buildup. But hopefully the demand itself will slow down and we will continue to see healthy SOFAD.
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Originally Posted by soggadu
Right now generally people agree that there will be 16-18K SOFAD next year which would mean EB2IC backlog through Q1 2008 will be cleared by Sep 2012.
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Originally Posted by kkurasa
Soggadu,
Spillover, whether it's happening to EB2 or EB3 or some other category is a direct result. Lot of strict regulations, including kazarian memo are all direct results of economy. If Economy is so much better as in 98-99-2000, there will not be enough people crying out for regulations.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one. This would be my last post on this topic:)
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Originally Posted by soggadu
I understand we need to be hopeful but doesn't want to sound that it is a definite shot... just remembering what i have seen for past 2 yrs... in 2008/2009 i thought i will be able to file for EAD with PD oct 2007 as the economy was like depression...but it didnt happen... and i dont want people to have same hopes to see them go down this time too....Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
you are saying backlogged labors and 140's for EB1 would go on for more than year and that too in 2008/2009... i am not sure Q bhai... even if that is the case, those unfortunate numbers are really low in comparision...
Anyway i am resting my argument now and let you all deal with numbers... i think i have made my point...
Thanks TeddyK!
So, EB2 is hovering @40%...in your terms, it's down from 80-85% from previous months?
Also, do we know why EB3 picked up major share at this juncture? ( like any possible theories)
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I think the effect of the recession was felt on EB Category months/years after it ended. That is the reason we got few thousands of extra Spillover visas in 2011. And if there is a double dip (i doubt) next next 2 quarters, we will see more spillover sooner in 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
recession = bad economy = fewer jobs = less hiring = less number of immigrants getting jobs = fewer EB ROW applications = more spillover to EB2 I/C
This shows how much our fab 4 thread is famous...kudos guys ... :)
'There are currently 204 users browsing this thread. (34 members and 170 guests)'
Bro, there you go....easy & hard
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Originally Posted by soggadu
soggadu I know exactly why you have dim hopes on the linkage between bad economy and SOFAD. But what I have quoted is real. Indeed USCIS scraped through the entire supply chain of GC applications for EB1 and EB2ROW. So the only way EB1 and EB2ROW can hurt is by increases new receipts. And how is that going to happen in this kind of economic environment?
Stay put!! Good things will happen to you.
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Originally Posted by soggadu
As in July 2011, the VB is probably going to come out tomorrow (1 day after release of Demand Data).
Q
sorry to hear that, I took a beating with oil.
Quick Q - Does the demand data numbers include family members as well? or only the primary applicants?
Thread is going like Super Fast xpress, unable to follow the posts :(...but i guess its good if everyone is having more discussions.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Already I am 10% down in market ( hopefully this will make very less eb1 applicants in coming days and more SPILL OVER .....)
Yes ... it includes ALL "documentarily qualified" cases including AOS and CP.
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Originally Posted by skpanda
We were at 387 when the last VB was released, at that morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
Q any idea how many of the SOFAD has been already used and approx how many is remaining for the Sep bulletin?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks,
Deb
then may be the number will be high tommorow :) hope the server doesnt go down tommrow, like it happened 1 hr before..
waiting for tommorow's bulletin and also guru's responses after that.... :)
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Originally Posted by nishant2200
pls refer to the post #1. Also refer to about 10 pages back. There was extensive discussion about it.
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Originally Posted by iamdeb
Good luck to everyone waiting for Sep Bulletin ..hope it comes out tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Curtains for today. It's 5 EST.
will be checking Mumbai US Consulate website after 11.30 EST time to see if there is any update. in the past, couple of times they have posted VB before DoS.
Link to Mumbai Consulate CoD page: http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...
1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.
So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.
THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....
I can see only smoke... clouding our expectations... fire will be on once the VB releases.... either way....
1. law firm's website's piece of info was a general generic disclaimer. Which CO himself puts in many bulletins. (in fact it was incorrect, they said, historically in september, dates have not moved or retro, or moved very very less, on those lines, and I put a post some pages back, showing that since last three years, movement has been at least two months or more, with no retro in following october)
2. That someone was just a anonymous user, not CM himself. CM indicates 15th June 2007, as well as his source indicates small movement, and SFM until July in new FY, with stall until May 2012, and then bigger movements, no retro.
3. the admin you mention puts in veiled hints to generate interest in people to join the cause, become donors, and participate in advocacy.
No one predicted the huge movement to March 2007 from 2006 either. So when that happened, no one blamed saying hey you guys saying less movement.
If what they say about retro etc, comes true, we will award them laurels, but if that turns out to be false, in the joy of the moment, we forget the incorrect statements.
You did nothing wrong by sharing your opinion and thoughts, keep them coming I am just putting my thoughts here, and suggesting to friends here, don't panic by such news, or disheartened.
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Originally Posted by pg_at_q
I think the dates will move to Jun 15th because a similar demand (8000) was in 2008, and the dates moved from from June 1st 2006 to August 1st 2006 in Sept. Visa bulletin. I have not made any calculations, but my guess mate is June 15th 2007.
I would be very happy, If I am wrong and moves forward than 15th June.
Good Luck everyone and I hope you all are green soon.
Whenever we hovered like hungry dogs in the dust outside the castle for a meat, we are always given loaf of bread. So just relax and be patient, and next bulletin would be the "Feast of Hungry Ghosts".Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
Yes I agree. I guess its ok for people to project whatever projections as long as they don't inflate or pad them for fear or favor. I would hate it if somebody were projecting short just to play safe and tehn if dates overshot .. who remembers the short projection right?
My personal philosophy is try to have a datapoint behind anything you say or do. Because that helps us stay clear of our own emotions and gives more clarity than anything else.
Your advice about not panicking is good. That's what it is. No point in people getting panicky based on any predictions that are not solidly rooted in facts.
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Originally Posted by nishant2200
Well said Q & Nishant..
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Originally Posted by qesehmk
Great point Q. Back it up with datapoint. And whatever you claim based on those data facts, if it comes untrue, or whatever deviation happens, the lesson to learn is, go back and re-calibrate, and see what you missed, so that next time, we come up with more solid prediction, based on better datapoint.
Iterative learning, that's the lifecycle of any prediction model, in any engineering or life science.
Yep!!!! Exactly. It could still turn bad. But then you go back to drawing table and recalibrate and learn.
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Originally Posted by nishant2200
Am not predicting anything here guys...the way it works atleast for me...it's a better feeling if I get AAA when the expectation is B, rather then getting a C when the expectation is AAA....Believe me..I'd be the happiest if the prediction as it's laid out on the first post of this thread turns out to be true ... I am a July 07 PD so it'll benefit me huge if the dates surpasses this range...
Since there's so many factors here, it's hard to predict the exact movement. Priorities change all the time...atleast in DoS/USCIS offices...sometimes they want to clear EB2-ROW/EB1 before they move EB2 I/C, some other times they feel EB2 I/C will get a huge spillover thus raising our anxiety unnecessarily...sometimes they think there's huge porting, some other times they believe it's been minimal...it's been such a roller-coaster ride...at least in this age of computing, USCIS should clean its house and start publishing accurate demand data as well as supply data too...damn it, it's the single agency which takes in all these applications, and is entirely funded by application fees...it should at least commit to delivering quality service.
pg_at_q, I respect your opinions. There is nothing to be defensive here. You stated your point and Nishanth & Q did theirs quite impressively.
Some of these websites ( excluding CM), have their own agenda, when someone with a hidden agenda says/posts even something useful, the general tendency is to take it with a grain of salt. Like Nishanth mentioned, these websites usually play it safe for donations or whatever it might be they'd have to lose, on the flip side for a incorrect prediction.
You don't have to fear that here:)
Good Luck!
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Originally Posted by pg_at_q
cool man...we are all in this together...not getting defensive...juz some frustration..chill :)
Agree completely. Keeping fingers crossed. CO would have decided by now... and must be watching tamasha on these forums
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Originally Posted by pg_at_q
Nope, only Hillary knows