EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by incredible

Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued by USCIS.

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According to a recent Murthy article:

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The supplement J may be filed proactively by the beneficiary at any time. If not, prior to approving the I-485, the USCIS should issue a request for evidence (RFE) or notice of intent to deny (NOID) to request an updated supplement J.

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I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

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Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun

Q - Wont the guys pull the Medical RFE .... and delay the approval even though the date is current ?
Family and I are contemplating a visit back home [this fall]. My belief is that even if i get current there will be an RFE due to expired medicals ....

Agree with your advice that its always better to listen to your attorney :)

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I know someone personally who got approved with no medicals.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued b y USCIS.

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You don't have to file 485J proactively. The law doesn't require you to file it as soon as you change your job. You just wait for an RFE or NOID from USCIS.

Thank you for your detailed explanations. In this case the attorney that I have is not associated with any of my companies. I have him as my attorney for quite some years and he helped filing 485 supplement J when it was asked through RFE couple of years back. I am looking at the worst case scenarios of your "For" filing 485 Supplement J and see a good idea to file it in parallel after joining the company. I see in your note that you mentioning about port using AC21. I remember back in 2012 when I changed the job, my new company gave me an AC21 letter that I had to send to USCIS through my attorney. Is that process still possible. I thought that was not required any more and in-lieu of that the supplement J process has come up.

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Originally Posted by idliman

According to a recent Murthy article:

I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

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Thank you. That seems to be the opinion of my attorney as well.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

You don't have to file 485J proactively. The law doesn't require you to file it as soon as you change your job. You just wait for an RFE or NOID from USCIS.

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Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.

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Originally Posted by idliman

According to a recent Murthy article:

I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.

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I am not able to appreciate the need for supplement J when changing the job. Suppl J is provided when AOS is filed and is for future employer/employment. So why would that be needed when one joins any other employer before that.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.

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The reasons and opinions are purely personal in nature. There is no requirement in law to file I485J proactively as explained by everyone above.
My reasoning was Nebraska SC had sent I485J and I693 RFEs for everyone. So I thought TSC might do something like this anytime and I did not want to be in the middle of jobs or looking for a job when that happens. I also thought Nov2009 might get current in 2 years. Filing I485J proactively might give 2 years.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

I am not able to appreciate the need for supplement J when changing the job. Suppl J is provided when AOS is filed and is for future employer/employment. So why would that be needed when one joins any other employer before that.

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If you think, an applicant is reasonably close to be current in 2 years or so, why wouldn't the applicant file for I485J proactively? In such cases you might get GC in mail without issues. There are many of us with I485 EADs waiting from 2012 onwards. At some point you might think that you are close. I did then, but not now. Of course the goal post keeps moving, and you wisen up at a later time.

Can anyone here clarify this update on "When to file Adjustment of status from USCIS" ?

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2020

Looks like if I'm not mistaken for EB3-I they are accepting Final action dates till Feb 2010.

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Originally Posted by lville

Can anyone here clarify this update on "When to file Adjustment of status from USCIS" ?
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2020
Looks like if I'm not mistaken for EB3-I they are accepting Final action dates till Feb 2010.

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Wow! Good catch. So, the State Departments Visa bulletin states FA for EB3I as 01JAN09. The USCIS says use DF date of 01FEB10. If you have a good attorney, hopefully you can win the argument. Considering the current political environment, what are the odds of winning?

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Originally Posted by idliman

Wow! Good catch. So, the State Departments Visa bulletin states FA for EB3I as 01JAN09. The USCIS says use DF date of 01FEB10. If you have a good attorney, hopefully you can win the argument. Considering the current political environment, what are the odds of winning?

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There is a separate thread actively in progress on the Trackitt forum.
But I believe there is an error done by someone in the UI.
I also tried to contact the USCIS live chat and they claimed complete ignorance on that subject.
According to the live chat person, the website is created by a different team.

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Originally Posted by Ind2009

There is a separate thread actively in progress on the Trackitt forum.
But I believe there is an error done by someone in the UI.
I also tried to contact the USCIS live chat and they claimed complete ignorance on that subject.
According to the live chat person, the website is created by a different team.

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Interestingly, the date for filing was Feb 2010 for EB-3 India even between October and December, 2019. The URL for October date for filing is: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-october-2019. Similarly, for December: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-december-2019

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Originally Posted by Immigo

Interestingly, the date for filing was Feb 2010 for EB-3 India even between October and December, 2019. The URL for October date for filing is: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-october-2019. Similarly, for December: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-december-2019

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There is no change in filing date and Feb 2010 is correct for EB3 which has been open since Oct 2019. The confusion is created by the new section in the Final Action Dates for Employment 3rd and Other Worker Employment-Based Adjustment of Status Applications in the uscis.gov page for When to File Your Adjustment of Status Application. In this new section there is a mention for EB3 India, China and Philippines to use Final action dates from Filing dates below. Also EB3 Mexico Final action date is listed as current. While the filing date information is correct, Final action date information in the uscis.gov website is not.

Rethinking, on the logic for the new column, I believe there is a possibility that filing dates could remain open for select categories going forward in the coming months for both Family and Employment based cases.
This will allow them to get new applications from select categories, instead of letting it be open for all of EB or FB.

I'm a silent member. PD is Mar 2010. Going by the current movement is 2023 - 2025 a realistic timeline? Couple of my friends with Apr 2009 PD just became citizens. What a difference 12 months makes! I'm looking at opportunities in UK so do not want to take a drastic step unless this looks like a lost cause

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Originally Posted by gamma2

I'm a silent member. PD is Mar 2010. Going by the current movement is 2023 - 2025 a realistic timeline? Couple of my friends with Apr 2009 PD just became citizens. What a difference 12 months makes! I'm looking at opportunities in UK so do not want to take a drastic step unless this looks like a lost cause

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Hypothetical scenario:
Your best bet for EB2I PD (Mar2010) to become current in 2023 is if economy crashes (worse than 2009 ).

Relasitic scenario:
Based on last demand data and porting considered, EB2I 2010 March will become current in 2027-2031.( Every year dates may move up to 2 months).

This is my take. (I am not a jotshi)

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Originally Posted by gamma2

I'm a silent member. PD is Mar 2010. Going by the current movement is 2023 - 2025 a realistic timeline? Couple of my friends with Apr 2009 PD just became citizens. What a difference 12 months makes! I'm looking at opportunities in UK so do not want to take a drastic step unless this looks like a lost cause

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Yes 2023-25 is a realistic timeline. EB2 had been unduly stuck due to EB3 porting which should ease off by at of this year as EB3 crosses EB2. My estimate is combined EB2/3 movement of 3 months per year after that.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Yes 2023-25 is a realistic timeline. EB2 had been unduly stuck due to EB3 porting which should ease off by at of this year as EB3 crosses EB2. My estimate is combined EB2/3 movement of 3 months per year after that.

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I disagree with you.. Porting will never end. Indians or Chinese will jockey between eb2 and eb3 as long as one moves ahead of other.
If you combine eb2 and eb3 visas for India , you are looking at approximately 5400 visas.

If you combine eb2 and eb3 you will have around 5000 applicants in 2 months.

. It will take 7 to 10 years for eb2 i to reach 2010 March.

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Originally Posted by swordfish380

I disagree with you.. Porting will never end. Indians or Chinese will jockey between eb2 and eb3 as long as one moves ahead of other.
If you combine eb2 and eb3 visas for India , you are looking at approximately 5400 visas.

If you combine eb2 and eb3 you will have around 5000 applicants in 2 months.

. It will take 7 to 10 years for eb2 i to reach 2010 May.

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yes porting will never end, but eb2 would move on its own merit once eb3 is past eb2.

also how are you getting 5000 per 2 months. As per last published PIs the number would be 2500 for eb2, and about 1200 for eb3 based on perm filings.

last he is in mar 2010 not may

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Originally Posted by swordfish380

You have the 2500 number form 485 inventory.Without pending 485 inventory you can only guesstimate what's in store for eb3i.

Perm filing number (1200 for eb3i) needs to be multiplied by 2.5 for dependents. Eb3i is 5 months behind eb2i, that means porting is happening as we dicuss. This means eb2i may or may not cross into July of 2009 this year.

Now you do the math if eb2i moves at the rate of LESS THAN 2 months, 2009 march is 10 months away. You need at least 7 or more years to reach Mar of 2009.


REALITY:
With current president in the office for next 5 years, economy may remain between OK to GOOD. So very little to no possibility of spill over.

( Lighter side) On top of this he does not like immigration, he may shut down USCIS :)

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The current president is pro immigration (LEGAL). He proposed merit based legal immigration. He is anti Illegal immigration. I strongly believe on his next term, he will accomplish legal immigration reform which will greatly benefit us. Please do not watch leftwing propaganda media, they are nothing but spreading lies about this administration which is doing great. Do the research with facts.

The current president is pro LEGAL immigration and he is anti illegal immigration. I strongly believe that the administration will achieve legal merit based immigration in next term, which will greatly benefit us. Please do not listen to left wing media which is mostly propaganda and spreading lies.

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Originally Posted by swordfish380

Now you do the math if eb2i moves at the rate of LESS THAN 2 months, 2009 march is 10 months away. You need at least 7 or more years to reach Mar of 2009.

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EB2 I is already in May 2009. Why it takes 7 years to reach March 2009?

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Originally Posted by jimmys

EB2 I is already in May 2009. Why it takes 7 years to reach March 2009?

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Think he meant March 2010 which is fair given the speed with which dates are moving. They were May 2009 in 2014 and still in May 2009. Do not see this changing anytime soon

Typo's Corrected :


You have the 2500 number form 485 inventory.Without pending 485 inventory you can only guesstimate what's in store for eb3i.

Perm filing number (1200 for eb3i) needs to be multiplied by 2.5 for dependents. Eb3i is 5 months behind eb2i, that means porting is happening as we dicuss. This means eb2i may or may not cross into July of 2009 this year.

Now you do the math if eb2i moves at the rate of LESS THAN 2 months, 2010 march is 10 months away. You need at least 7 or more years to reach Mar of 2010.


REALITY:
With current president in the office for next 5 years, economy may remain between OK to GOOD. So very little to no possibility of spill over.

( Lighter side) On top of this he does not like immigration, he may shut down USCIS :)

I feel your pain being a May 2010 PD myself :-) Couple of my friends too had April 2009 PD and just became USC and will be voting this year. USCIS and DoS have basically combined to slowly hide more and more data points so that it is impossible to make any predictions or hold them accountable. I have given up on my GC dream as of now as it has no more bearing on my career or life. The only reason I visit this forum for updates is because it has become increasing relevant in the past year for my wife to get a GC as she works on govt. projects and starting to get excluded in bits and parts of some because of not being a PR/USC (her name can't be issued in commendations though she can work on the projects, BS like that). Anyways, cheer up and hopefully things will work out, I am 40 now and these things are starting to become less relevant as long as I am allowed to continue staying and working here.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I feel your pain being a May 2010 PD myself :-) Couple of my friends too had April 2009 PD and just became USC and will be voting this year. USCIS and DoS have basically combined to slowly hide more and more data points so that it is impossible to make any predictions or hold them accountable. I have given up on my GC dream as of now as it has no more bearing on my career or life. The only reason I visit this forum for updates is because it has become increasing relevant in the past year for my wife to get a GC as she works on govt. projects and starting to get excluded in bits and parts of some because of not being a PR/USC (her name can't be issued in commendations though she can work on the projects, BS like that). Anyways, cheer up and hopefully things will work out, I am 40 now and these things are starting to become less relevant as long as I am allowed to continue staying and working here.

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Full agree. However it really hits you hard if you have India born kids.

My priority date is June 11 2010. I am currently on EB3 but my original I-140 application through a different employer was EB2. When should i expect to be able to file 485 and get EAD ? H1 is getting tougher by the day and my Canadian immigration invite is expiring. Would appreciate any insights.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I feel your pain being a May 2010 PD myself :-) Couple of my friends too had April 2009 PD and just became USC and will be voting this year. USCIS and DoS have basically combined to slowly hide more and more data points so that it is impossible to make any predictions or hold them accountable. I have given up on my GC dream as of now as it has no more bearing on my career or life. The only reason I visit this forum for updates is because it has become increasing relevant in the past year for my wife to get a GC as she works on govt. projects and starting to get excluded in bits and parts of some because of not being a PR/USC (her name can't be issued in commendations though she can work on the projects, BS like that). Anyways, cheer up and hopefully things will work out, I am 40 now and these things are starting to become less relevant as long as I am allowed to continue staying and working here.

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Originally Posted by mknop1

My priority date is June 11 2010. I am currently on EB3 but my original I-140 application through a different employer was EB2. When should i expect to be able to file 485 and get EAD ? H1 is getting tougher by the day and my Canadian immigration invite is expiring. Would appreciate any insights.

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They may extend the filing date to June for EB3 by the end of this year, but you may still have to wait another 4-8 months before you get your EAD in hand.

That helps ! Even if there is a good chance of getting EAD by end of next year, at least there is hope at the end of the tunnel. Thank you very much.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

They may extend the filing date to June for EB3 by the end of this year, but you may still have to wait another 4-8 months before you get your EAD in hand.

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Sorry if this has been discussed: is the EB3 final action cutoff 1JAN09 or 01FEB10?

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2020.html
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2020

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Sorry if this has been discussed: is the EB3 final action cutoff 1JAN09 or 01FEB10?

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2020.html
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...s-january-2020

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This was discussed on trackitt. As per USCIS this is an error.

USCIS release 2019 I-485 data, and I-140 data.

	I-140 Received	I-140 Approved	I-485 Received	I-485 Approved
2017	139566	126213	139555	114480
2018	136585	135653	132708	109275
2019	142451	146361	103584	105059

What concerns me is the number of I-140 Applications received/approved. Since we don't know which category these are falling under and there could be more 485 waiting for filing. But the good thing is less 485's received compared to previous years, as the EB1 category has cut off date for filing.

485 applications received in the last 3 quarters are 23272;25986;26433.

redsox,

Could you provide a link to the figures please.

I couldn't find them on the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page or any search I made.

The figures for I-485 received figures stack up. Q1 2019 was 27,893 from the Q3 All Forms Report and added to your figures for the last 3 quarters totals the 103,584 you quoted.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

redsox,

Could you provide a link to the figures please.

I couldn't find them on the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page or any search I made.

The figures for I-485 received figures stack up. Q1 2019 was 27,893 from the Q3 All Forms Report and added to your figures for the last 3 quarters totals the 103,584 you quoted.

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Damn they removed most of the files which they posted on Jan 14th

Here I found links

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2019_qtr4.pdf

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...rms_FY19Q4.pdf

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Here I found links

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2019_qtr4.pdf

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...rms_FY19Q4.pdf

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redsox,

Thanks a lot.

Regarding Bulletin, I think CO is waiting for the data from the CO processing and USCIS. Last month as soon as Bulletin got released, the monthly CO data came out.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Regarding Bulletin, I think CO is waiting for the data from the CO processing and USCIS. Last month as soon as Bulletin got released, the monthly CO data came out.

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Hope there's a reduced demand for all the categories.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Hope there's a reduced demand for all the categories.

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For last 7 years many reports have come and gone yet eb2i is still where it was 7 years.


These reports are like mirage in a desert. There is no water in desert.

Tomorrow there will be a Visa bulletin with 2 days movement.

Dont hold your breath.