The answer lies in the statement only "fall-up" happens from E4/E5 to E1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster
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The answer lies in the statement only "fall-up" happens from E4/E5 to E1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster
CBPDS1 - of course the bulletin may very well only move a bit, but the issue this time is unpredented. That is, the backlog of documentarily qualified I-485s is nearing zero and hence some move has to be made, either now or in Q3/Q4 FY12 to take in a truck load of fresh I-485s.
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I don't think Demand Data is very good for gauging porting, since it is only a net change.
Trackitt data suggests a figure of at least 3.5-4k based on PDs of EB2 approvals and cases approved as EB3 with PD later than EB3 Cut Off Date. Any Porting within dates that were also Current for EB2-I is difficult to judge and is not included in that figure.
The estimates between different members were quite wide ranging.
It is a really hard number to arrive at with any degree of certainty and may provide some "wiggle room" compared to the highest estimates.
I am not positive if this demand data calculated porting numbers. In database will they mark EB3 record inactive/delete it if that record gets ported to eb2?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I am sure in some of the previous bulletin we have found out reduction of eb3 data which we thought that it is because of porting.
orelse is it just somebody did not choose a condition while pulling data for eb3?.
Anyways we might get bulletin by Thursday( or tomorrow?).. hopefully there will be BTM..
How big is Porting actually?
There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.
There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:
i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.
ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.
iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.
iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.
v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.
Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….
I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
Comments are welcome!!!
If it gets current...that will be the best for many of us....atleast current for one month and retrogress( i am ok with it :) )
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Can someone predict what would be the EB2 India date on September bulletin?
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Based on some high porting number estimates and the recent surge in PERM filings/approvals ( June'11 DOL PERM Fact Sheet ) i was expecting significant change in EB3I demand data.
But i agree it's not as simple as comparing the demand, when comes to porting number calculations.
First post, first page of this very same thread has the information.
As far porting numbers, I think change-in-demand EB3 numbers,along with change in the EB3 inventory from October through September of a given year, would give a close estimate for porting number.
At this point, it's anybody's guess as to how much they've consumed this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunny4gc
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
grnwtg,
As spec pointed porting number calculation is little trickey.
Irrespective of EB3-EB2 porting is reported in EB2 demand data or deleted from EB3 upon approval as EB2, we should see the net change in EB3 demand data (reduction) at some point!
Veni. In the past that was probably possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Now, it is pretty impossible, because non current cases from LO are being returned to TSC after the interview takes place. Once TSC adds the details into the system, they will be additions to the totals and mask the true reduction due to porting.
Leo07,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Agree, YOY could give us better picture on porting calculations.
But, we need to keep in mind that the porting dynamics changes as the gap between EB3 and EB2 COD increases....!
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.
Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?
Will The debt ceiling ,S&P rating and stock markets tumbling today have effect on our SEP & OCT bulletin ???
Or will we have no effect bcoz of this on our date movements?
veni
Spec is right. Although they are by now, since they were not in Oct 2010, one can't look at demand data from today, compare with Oct 2010 and do the math.
In simple words demand data today and in OCt 2010 is not on teh same basis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
The demand data should also start representing atleast the starting trickle of PWMB in the lastest report. Not much of an impact yet and this includes the first 7 days of August.
Due to jobs loss in year 2008 & 2009, lots of people have move to new employer starting GC process all over again and have option of upgrading from EB3 to EB2 category (base on experience gained with old employer). Here were porting will come into account. Does this make sense?Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...
my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....
rememeber... demand data includes only documentarily qualified cases... pwmb will take atleast 1 or 2 months to be in the list...Quote:
Originally Posted by chikitsak
Atleast u got something to eat :), I thght beans were costlier than potatoes....duhh
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
My point is if they are(most of the LO inventory) transferred by now then we could rely on month to month demand data to a get a feel for it?
Agree, it will be hard to get the clear picture based on YOY comparison due to the recent changes in processing EB applications.
I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.
I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.
Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.
Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?
Draw your own conclusions.
Veni
Yes I would think that LO cases are transferred by now and going forward one can do month over month comparison.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Actually, I have a different take here. There will be a direct impact of market-direction ON immigration on a long-term basis ( 1-2 years). Sudden fluctuations will NOT have impact on immigration. Any sustained/continued fluctuation will also NOT have impact on immediate (3-6 months) Visa bulletins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Spec,
Not today, but some other day, I'd like to understand why we can't calculate porting numbers from YOY changes in inventory, along with change in demand YOY.
For today, I'll take your word that it's NOT possible to calculate porting numbers:) ( I did take many formulas that way, without questioning :))
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Guys you are correct the YOY approach won’t work out. IMHO neither will demand data because the demand data is also a WIP document and believe me even 2002 folks are porting. The only we we can get to it is the inventory once we see the latest one then do a subtraction of the non current portion and extrapolate to 12 months. The LO cases addition to the inventory made the calculation impossible by the YOY method.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q
give some good news from your source, almost puked when i just saw the afternoon market update. 15% down in 1 week
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Since 485 could be any AOS, i was checking on i140 completion/pending/approvals at LO from the dashboard to get a feel for EB485 still pending at field office locations.
Based on the dahboard data, i can only go as far as two years, it looks to me there aren't very many still at LO. My be I am wrong, but i leave it at that!
leo,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Both the Demand Data and USCIS Inventories provide net changes between them.
That is, there are additions and subtractions. If you don't know one of these, you can't calculate the other.
e.g. a net reduction of 100 might be zero additions and 100 reductions, or it can equally be 50 additions and 150 reductions. Without knowing the additions, it is impossible to know the reduction.
If you assume no additions, you will underestimate the reductions.
Beans or potatos you have something to eat....:)
I am not mixing anything shoban babu, just wanted to understand, as i saw few posts where gurus mentioned that 2008 & 2009( less EB1) bcoz of recession.
Actually i dont mind if it doesnt change....but i will feel bad if the dates retrogress bcoz of this changes in USA... :)
already atleast i have long wait....i dont want other changes bring evenmore wait for us (people with priority date 2010 nd 2011)
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
My entire portfolio is down 10% today! 50% tied to Chinese stocks. They are getting a beating 3-5 times DJI.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Thanks Spec.
I understand that they represent net change, +X and -X cancel out and may not show up in the entire result.
On a higher level, say EB3I in a given year must get 3k visas and if the inventory & demand data, compared to the demand data go down by more than 3k, that is porting?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?
Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.
Friends now we have more approvals coming up on Trackitt. This based on the Approval date in Aug.
EB2 - India - 16
EB2 - China - 2
EB2 and NIW - ROW - 6
EB1 - 5
EB3 - 15
The percentage share of EB2 - I +C is below 50% now, EB3 India cases are being posted in large numbers. EB2 ROW and EB1 seem to e normal bounds, the volume of EB2 I/C needs to be higher considering the fact that even Jul cases are being approved now.
So explain me what we gained/lost from 2008-2011 w.r.t immigration in conjunction with market... Please dont tell me about spilover as the spilover starting from 2007 was being applied to EB2 as an adminstrative fix... anything else?Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
yes, either of those will cause gas! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
wohi toh...everybdy say's about less EB1 in 2008 and 2009 but not much spilover available if u see the real numbers... those numbers (EB1) decreased recently due to stringent rules rather than market down trend...and i am not a real supporter of market vs immigration numbers theory....Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.
The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kkurasa
I did a comparison between June Demand data and September demand data for EB3I for calculating porting numbers. it came to roughly 230 cases per month. Here are my calculations
As per June demand data
On Jan 01, 2003 EB3I has a demand of 6.900
by Jan 01, 2011 EB3I has a demand of 57,400
Demand added betwenn Jan 2003 and Jan 2011 by June is 50,500
As per September demand data
On Jan 01, 2003 EB3I has a demand of 5,675
on Jan 01, 2011 EB3I has a demand of 55,250
demand added between Jan 2003 and Jan 2011 by Sepetember is 49,725.
From June to September the demand for EB3I has reduced from 50,500 to 49,725 which is a reduction of 925 for four months (or 232 per month). Most likely all these might have ported to EB2, if we think there are no denials.
I took Jan 01. 2003 as starting date because CUD did not cross this date so there is no chance of getting approvals under EB3I category for anybody applied after Jan01, 2003.
Gurus, Does it make sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
Q, i am not sure on that...if it is about bad economy, then what happened in 2008 and 2009 when the economy is worse than 2010... i guess we have seen steady flow is EB1's and only less than 3 or 4K spilover from EB1 each season... last year SOFAD is due to family visas which is irrespective of economy... please correct me if i am wrong...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk