EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-08-2011, 10:24 AM
vchirakala

Nishanth,

Thank you ..but seriously what does that mean ..please explain...;-)

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

vchirakala,

I attribute these post 2008 numbers to:
1. CP demand (does this show up in demand data?)
2. Porting, the PDs have yet not been interfiled to the EB3 date.

It can't be clerical error, as we have been seeing these post 2008 number consistently.

They maybe useful if DOS needs to show there is demand in 2008 and need to move dates to reach there, but that applies only to 1 above. Brings back all the talk of NVC Notices for CP in EB2 I 2008 PDs.
08-08-2011, 10:24 AM
Spectator

skpanda, My comments are inline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

You are correct. The numbers represent those expected at the end of August 2011 and before any further reduction as a result of COD movement in the September VB.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

No 7% limited Country may have a COD later than that set for Worldwide (ROW).

Once a Country reaches the ROW COD, they can only consume as many visas as forward movement of the ROW COD allows, since they will also have this date.

Also bear in mind that EB3-C has up to 50% CP demand, not all of which will be shown in the DOS figures yet.

EB3-M has consistently consumed more visas than the apparent demand.

EB2-C COD will move faster than EB2-I initially in any year, but then EB2-I and EB2-C will become the same during "Spillover Season"

EB2-C have too many pending visas between the present COD and today to become Current on their own. They probably have enough PWMB of their own that DOS don't have to BTM them before EB2-I, since DOS can just throttle back the monthly approvals to suit the actual number.
08-08-2011, 10:24 AM
nishant2200

Refer to my post # 5907 above.

Quote:

Originally Posted by waiting

Can someone explain this ?
EB-2 I demand before Jan 1st 2008 is 4800 and before Jan 1st 2011 is 4925 -- how come 125 documantory qualified immigrants between these dates.. COD for EB2 India were never current during this time.. Are they CP cases by any chance?
08-08-2011, 10:29 AM
nishant2200

1. Two ways you can get Permanent Residency in Employment based category. First is AOS (Adjustment of Status), in which you have to be in USA when you file for the last stage, and the form is I-485, this is what most of us here are. The USCIS adjudicates your application and obtains a visa number from Department of State, if approved, for you and your dependents. Second is CP (Consular Processing), most commonly seen in family based category. Here they applicant has to go to a consulate (just like you go for H1 etc), for a interview, and if approved, the consulate attaches a visa number. The agency here is not USCIS, but National Visa Center (NVC) and consulate. The common factor is DOS (Department of State).

2. When someone ports from EB3 to EB2, he may have a EB2 PD of say somewhere in 2010, but his actual PD will be used is his EB3 PD (maybe somewhere say in 2005). The lawyer does a process of interfiling and officially lets know USCIS to use the EB3 PD.

This is in simple words I tried.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchirakala

Nishanth,

Thank you ..but seriously what does that mean ..please explain...;-)
08-08-2011, 10:30 AM
jackbrown_890

Demand Data:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
08-08-2011, 10:30 AM
vchirakala

thanks Nishanth
08-08-2011, 10:37 AM
waiting

Nishant - thanks,

1) CP cases - do not understand why there are CP cases who had their interviews without being current.

2) 125 Porting cases - This sounds too good to be true. Only 125 poring cases so far.
08-08-2011, 10:39 AM
vchirakala

Does that mean anytime soon EB2 is going to be current ...reading 1) CPcases who had their interviews without being current ??????

Quote:

Originally Posted by waiting

Nishant - thanks,

1) CP cases - do not understand why there are CP cases who had their interviews without being current.

2) 125 Porting cases - This sounds too good to be true. Only 125 poring cases so far.
08-08-2011, 10:40 AM
nishant2200

1. To be here, means, these guys paid their fees to NVC notice, and submitted documents, are documentarily qualified, actual interview will be scheduled only if dates are current. NVC notices are sent in anticipation of dates being current in sometime soon, unlike 485 which can only be filed when date is current.

2. This I am just speculating, and maybe just some errors on USCIS/DOS side because of the porting confusion. They may all be just CP.

It may also be just pure mistakes, but hard to see that happening consistently in each and every demand data report.

Quote:

Originally Posted by waiting

Nishant - thanks,

1) CP cases - do not understand why there are CP cases who had their interviews without being current.

2) 125 Porting cases - This sounds too good to be true. Only 125 poring cases so far.
08-08-2011, 10:43 AM
nishant2200

Side by side, markets are falling worldwide because of the S&P downgrade.
08-08-2011, 10:46 AM
gchopeful123

Yes - because the US credit rating was marked as poor standards by standard poors...he he he

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Side by side, markets are falling worldwide because of the S&P downgrade.
08-08-2011, 10:46 AM
soggadu

Fab 4... a summary of the demand data is needed...please post ur analysis so that lot of our questions are answered and we keep our fingers crossed till VB rather than use them to type more questions...
08-08-2011, 10:49 AM
la_2002_ch

Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).
08-08-2011, 10:49 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Fab 4... a summary of the demand data is needed...please post ur analysis so that lot of our questions are answered and we keep our fingers crossed till VB rather than use them to type more questions...

soggadu,

The Demand Data is exactly as expected (8k EB2-IC left before the September VB).

The Demand Data does not tell us how many visas might be allocated in September and therefore how far the COD might move in the September VB.

We all have to wait I'm afraid.
08-08-2011, 10:53 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

The Demand Data is exactly as expected (8k EB2-IC left before the September VB).

The Demand Data does not tell us how many visas might be allocated in September and therefore how far the COD might move in the September VB.

We all have to wait I'm afraid.

Spec...couple of Questions then...

1. Why is EB2 ROW showing 0...no documentarily qualified pending ? If so why are we afraid of increase in numbers for EB2 ROW and EB1...
2. How many visas were issued for the month of July and approx for Aug... Also, does 8K number include people those r current in Aug?
3. WHat is the final figure of left over SOFAD we are looking at?
08-08-2011, 10:53 AM
leo07

Reduction in backlog from the previous month is 2225. Last month's demand showed as 10500 for EB2

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

I was looking at the Aug demand data this morning (waiting for the Sept Demand Data) and EB2 India was around 6400.
08-08-2011, 10:54 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by la_2002_ch

Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

la.... as mentioned before these NVC notices would be given 1 yr prior to get all the documents in place... for your other question...read what Spec had to say...
08-08-2011, 10:54 AM
gc_usa

is it Sep 2008 or Sep 2007 ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by la_2002_ch

Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

If it is Sep 2008 then big question is why nvc is moving ahead so fast ? Does that mean DOS sees more number falling next year ? I am big fan of this NVC theory :)
08-08-2011, 10:58 AM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_usa

If it is Sep 2008 then big question is why nvc is moving ahead so fast ? Does that mean DOS sees more number falling next year ? I am big fan of this NVC theory :)

I need someone to actually put a scan of the NVC notice, of course after crossing out any identifying details, then I will be convinced. It keeps on bothering me that I have not seen actual proof of this. However, I must say that I found a post by a paralegal on Ron Gotcher's forum, who said that their firm has indeed obtained NVC Notices for EB2 I in year 2008.

This wait is killing me. I am going to put some nasty bugs in code today.
08-08-2011, 11:02 AM
qesehmk

soggadu its hard to decipher demand data & coming to a conclusion about one month movement. The reason being what they show is important but what it hides could be vital! The demand data shows "documentarily qualified" but hides "not qualifed" cases as well as "current" cases. So the 8K that EB2 is showing is nothing but mathematical calculation of numbers from 15 Apr onwards till August. So nothing surprising or exciting in there.

The only thing I can think of is - indeed they are commited to allocate visas through Apr 15 since they seem to have excluded all those cases from demand data.

Another thing I can say is - there is nothing bad in the demand data. Something that will catch your eyes and go .... whoa these are guys are going to retro. But other than that difficult to say what these guys are thinking.

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Fab 4... a summary of the demand data is needed...please post ur analysis so that lot of our questions are answered and we keep our fingers crossed till VB rather than use them to type more questions...
08-08-2011, 11:03 AM
tiger_of_web

Feb Demand : 32975
Sept Demand : 8000

Total backlog cleared : 24975. That's cool.
08-08-2011, 11:05 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I need someone to actually put a scan of the NVC notice, of course after crossing out any identifying details, then I will be convinced. It keeps on bothering me that I have not seen actual proof of this. However, I must say that I found a post by a paralegal on Ron Gotcher's forum, who said that their firm has indeed obtained NVC Notices for EB2 I in year 2008.

This wait is killing me. I am going to put some nasty bugs in code today.

chil Nishant... remember this mantra... aaya toh aaya, baaki sab maaya... u have to relax a bit bro.... go have a beer...take ur family out or have a fight with wife...
08-08-2011, 11:06 AM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

soggadu its hard to decipher demand data & coming to a conclusion about one month movement. The reason being what they show is important but what it hides could be vital! The demand data shows "documentarily qualified" but hides "not qualifed" cases as well as "current" cases. So the 8K that EB2 is showing is nothing but mathematical calculation of numbers from 15 Apr onwards till August. So nothing surprising or exciting in there.

The only thing I can think of is - indeed they are commited to allocate visas through Apr 15 since they seem to have excluded all those cases from demand data.

Another thing I can say is - there is nothing bad in the demand data. Something that will catch your eyes and go .... whoa these are guys are going to retro. But other than that difficult to say what these guys are thinking.

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Thank you Q... yes i did get the point that this has nothing new and we stand at the same place still.... But i really cant imagine going current...
08-08-2011, 11:11 AM
neospeed

Any news from the source yet?

Are we expecting the VB today itself or tomorrow and what is movement for sept?.
08-08-2011, 11:11 AM
Spectator

DOS Demand for EB2-IC has reduced (for periods Current in each release) by 25,750 in the months October 2010 to August 2011 inclusive.

Any porting numbers etc should be added to this figure.
08-08-2011, 11:13 AM
iamdeb

Any idea how much of the SOFAD is still left?
08-08-2011, 11:15 AM
skpanda

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...
08-08-2011, 11:18 AM
velugc

Quote:

Originally Posted by neospeed

Are we expecting the VB today itself or tomorrow and what is movement for sept?.

Q is ur source back... can we get any updates from him on the movement...

no words yet from any source (Q's source, mitbbs.com etc) looks like CO would like to keep the cards closed till the release of VB and suprise us... hope it turns out good... with a big BTM or even with EB2 as current :)
08-08-2011, 11:18 AM
qesehmk

Me too. The thing is .... the pretext is there it seems. Whether they will use it - who knows ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...
08-08-2011, 11:26 AM
leo07

for this to hold true, they need to have 8k+ visas ready-to-be-allocated for EB2 as a whole. Given it's the last month, it's extremely unlikely that they will sit on so many visas until last minute.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Me too. The thing is .... the pretext is there it seems. Whether they will use it - who knows ?
08-08-2011, 11:26 AM
iamdeb

Pulled up Aug 2011 demand data.
For EB2 China it was 4050 and for EB2 India it was 6400. So I guess 2450 has been consumed.
08-08-2011, 11:28 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

I hope too as this will leave a lot of people happy including me (PD - Sep'2010)who can get a EAD.
08-08-2011, 11:32 AM
qesehmk

Yes that is the basic condition. They had 19K for Aug + Sep excluding the EB2IC SOFAD.
So is it likely they will have more than 8K for Sep for EB2. Somewhat likely. But as I said that is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a BTM. Of course C is the most extreme BTM. Lets see.

On another note.... nothing heard so far from source.

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

for this to hold true, they need to have 8k+ visas ready-to-be-allocated for EB2 as a whole. Given it's the last month, it's extremely unlikely that they will sit on so many visas until last minute.
08-08-2011, 11:49 AM
evoori

BTM or NO BTM chanting..

BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM ......

This wait is killing me..

BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM ..
08-08-2011, 11:50 AM
vchirakala

BTM Hurray ... sorry guys just kidding ...i know this wait is killing
08-08-2011, 12:03 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

DOS Demand for EB2-IC has reduced (for periods Current in each release) by 25,750 in the months October 2010 to August 2011 inclusive.

Any porting numbers etc should be added to this figure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes that is the basic condition. They had 19K for Aug + Sep excluding the EB2IC SOFAD.
So is it likely they will have more than 8K for Sep for EB2. Somewhat likely. But as I said that is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a BTM. Of course C is the most extreme BTM. Lets see.

On another note.... nothing heard so far from source.

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?
08-08-2011, 12:11 PM
leo07

Good point Veni. It's basically going to the last ball of the match.

Q, Thanks for your response. As you said in one of your earlier posts, it's in the corridor of belief, 'How likely' it is :)
08-08-2011, 12:17 PM
Pdmar08

I am not sure if i m not reading it on the blog or plain not reading it right..sorry monday morning but demand data is out. Sorry if i am posting it again.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Cumulative
Demand Prior To China- 3,250 India- 4,925
08-08-2011, 12:19 PM
qesehmk

Not to belabour the point but there is slight difference.

Belief would be if someone says "it is going to happen". I don't think there is any guarantee. All I am saying is the condition may be present to make the move.

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

Q, Thanks for your response. As you said in one of your earlier posts, it's in the corridor of belief, 'How likely' it is :)
08-08-2011, 12:20 PM
cbpds1

Going by the past few years, Sept bulletin has remained the same or has moved by 2-3 months, so dont expect this time to be anything different :(

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