EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by vishnu

So a good Demand Data (like today) implies 1) vast majority (if not all) of the last few month's I-485s still haven't hit pre-approval stage. 2) Visa numbers still exisit

Is this fair?

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Yes. Although, I wouldn't call it "pre-approval stage". It is more in the "approval stage". Just haven't been adjudicated for a variety of reasons (e.g., FP pending, RFEs, background checks, etc.)

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Originally Posted by nellore

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

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If the H1-B extension is beyond 6 years and at the time of adjudication of H1-B, there is an I-485 pending against your name, then you will get an 1 yr extension. If the I-485 hasn't been filed at the time of adjudication of H1-B, then the extension will be for 3 yrs. I am not an expert. So please wait for what others have to say.

ANother Jan filer Greened

PD: 28 MAR 2008
RD: 4 JAN 2012
ND: 6 JAN 2012
EAD/AP received: 23 FEB 2012
Fingerprints: 10 FEB 2012
ASC Location: Louisville, KY
I485 CPO: 7 MAR 2012
I485 Decision email: 7 MAR 2012


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
I dont think as of now atleast visa numbers are done ..... :)

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Originally Posted by kd2008

That is going to be interesting. Typically they may run out of visas at the quarter end. It seems that it did not happen in the Dec-Jan transition. Let us see what happens at the March-Apr transition. If we see a sudden drop in approvals at March end then yes, the quarterly numbers were exhausted and we will see an accumulation in the next month's demand data for May bulletin.

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As Teddy points out, USCIS processing speed is the key to all this. If USCIS can consume more visas than available in a given quarter, retrogression will set in. Not otherwise...

One more Jan Filer

485 card received: waiting
485 approved on: 3/7/2012
EAD/AP combo card received: 3/2/12
EAD/AP approved on: 2/26/2012
FP completed: 2/1/2012
Early Walk-in: Yes
Original ASC: Elizabeth
Fingerprinted ASC: Long Island City, NY (because its near to my office)
ND: 01/10/2012
RD: 01/12/2012
PD: 09/16/2008

H-1B extension is beyond 6 years. I would not have filed I-485 as dates are current in this bulletion (but effectively from 1st of April). So, I thought about this and am going to file my extension in premium so that i can get an approval before my date is effectively current. But still i ahd the doubt that the dates are published to be current..so?

Nearly 8K+ Eb2IC backlog was cleared within the 2012 Q1 quota , with this Dos could have ran out of Visa numbers . If this is true then they are going on approving cases by stealing numbers from Q2 . My belief is there should be some bending of rules happened with a mutual agreement between USCIS and Dos.

Note: I still believe 8k approved from 2011 quota until proven wrong.Spillover numbers are otherwise unused numbers. How could Spillover happen in Day 1 of the fiscal year ? If we donate used clothes, do we donate them right away coming out from an apparel store?

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Originally Posted by mesan123

ANother Jan filer Greened

PD: 28 MAR 2008
RD: 4 JAN 2012
ND: 6 JAN 2012
EAD/AP received: 23 FEB 2012
Fingerprints: 10 FEB 2012
ASC Location: Louisville, KY
I485 CPO: 7 MAR 2012
I485 Decision email: 7 MAR 2012


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
I dont think as of now atleast visa numbers are done ..... :)

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That user is http://www.trackitt.com/member/GSingh3422

Another Jan filer, http://www.trackitt.com/member/pinky032008 got approved. Read his/her post.

http://www.trackitt.com/member/niranjanvemuri

http://www.trackitt.com/member/igreened

Above two were also approved. Both are NSC and Jan filers.

Both the ones i posted were those 2 guys....based on this i assume still the visa numbers are not done, as they were approved yesterday....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

That user is http://www.trackitt.com/member/GSingh3422

Another Jan filer, http://www.trackitt.com/member/pinky032008 got approved. Read his/her post.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by mesan123

Both the ones i posted were those 2 guys....based on this i assume still the visa numbers are not done, as they were approved yesterday....

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We are typing at the same time. I am going to stop and let you post. :)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy,

Demand from AOS cases cannot accumulate in the report as long as the Cut Off Dates remain Current for any EB2-IC case USCIS might adjudicate. The case only becomes documentarily qualified at the point of approval. In that case the visa is issued and consumed immediately, never hitting the Demand Data.

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Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

You will get 1 years extension as the dates are current. Rest everything is luck.

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Originally Posted by nellore

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

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There are two situations where "demand" would come about (i.e. on the demand data report)
1. Dates are current - visa quotas are maxed out (in which case retrogression would happen and demand would increase). The "circuit breakers" are quarterly quotas.
2. Dates are already retrogressed - a person's application is pre-adjudicated (what happened due to the 2007 fiasco).

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Originally Posted by vizcard

There are two situations where "demand" would come about (i.e. on the demand data report)
1. Dates are current - visa quotas are maxed out (in which case retrogression would happen and demand would increase). The "circuit breakers" are quarterly quotas.
2. Dates are already retrogressed - a person's application is pre-adjudicated (what happened due to the 2007 fiasco).

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Thanks Vizcard for pointing, I read through Spec's post and he has the circuit breaker scenario also documented by quarterly limits. Now since this will be a new quarter I think they can have a open heart about forward movement.

"Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.".

Spec thanks your description sounds perfect.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

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Teddy,

I agree.

In the document, I also said

Quote:

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Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.

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and I have mentioned that scenario several times.

The only law about allocation is for the Quarterly limit, so allocating more in a month within the quarter is very likely. Figures for EB3 in previous years shows this does appear to happen.

Frankly, I think the quarterly limit for Q2 might be a bit tight. As long as he successfully negotiates that, a new quarter's allocation becomes available.

Although it is the law, I am not convinced CO has ever seen 27% as a hard, hard limit, since he can "anticipate" returns of visas from Consulates. If those happen to be "less" than he used in his calculations, then he has exceeded the Quarterly limit. Only the Year End limit is a hard cap in reality IMO.

I am more and more convinced that CO knows exactly where he wants to stop the forward movement in Cut Off Dates and that he will do that regardless. In that respect, I have stopped trying to guess.

I think the more interesting question is how much SOFAD there will be this year. Really, leaving aside the EAD/AP issue, that is the only important number, other than the more cases there are, the longer it will be before rapid forward movement is possible again.

As both Q and yourself have said, the forward movement is completely independent of the number of visas available this year.

People should enjoy it while it lasts, but it will end eventually.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nellore

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

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nellore,

This memo (page 13 (10)) instructs Adjudicators to look at the VB that was in effect at the time of filing to determine whether to grant a 1 or 3 year extension. Some selected snippets from the memo:

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Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to §104(c) of AC21 must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations.

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Quote:

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Adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of the filing of the Form I-129 petition in which a request for an §104(c) of AC21 H-1B extension request is made. If the H-1B alien beneficiary is shown to be ineligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status because of the per country visa limitations, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted for a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

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So, if the extension was filed when you weren't Current, then you should be entitled to a 3 year extension.

If that happens it would be great.
Thanks for the replies

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

nellore,

This memo (page 13 (10)) instructs Adjudicators to look at the VB that was in effect at the time of filing to determine whether to grant a 1 or 3 year extension. Some selected snippets from the memo:





So, if the extension was filed when you weren't Current, then you should be entitled to a 3 year extension.

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Sorry if this is already posted (please let me know i will delete).

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Does this any helpful info...

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Originally Posted by tackle

I called USCIS this morning (this is the first time I tried calling) and all they said was that TSC is processing applications from April and that I'll need to wait. I asked if I could get any information on background-check and was said "no". I didn't bother asking them to transfer me to L2. From the way things are looking, I don't think there'll be any change to our application status anytime soon. I just hope they still have our applications and did not "misplace" them.

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Tackle, I have been following your posts... I think your avatar is very fitting. It's extremely frustrating when you have no idea what's going on with your application.... Please hang in there...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nellore

If that happens it would be great.
Thanks for the replies

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First time poster. Feel free to correct me if I make any noob mistakes.

I can vouch for what Spec said from personal experience. My H1B - Post 6 yr extension was pending since Oct 11 thru Jan 12 when I had to visit India for a family emergency. The Feb bulletin (issued in Jan 12) made my PD (10/2009) current (starting Feb 1). I got my visa extension stamped based on the extended H1B and got a full 3 years.

Hope that helps.

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Originally Posted by bookworm

First time poster. Feel free to correct me if I make any noob mistakes.

I can vouch for what Spec said from personal experience. My H1B - Post 6 yr extension was pending since Oct 11 thru Jan 12 when I had to visit India for a family emergency. The Feb bulletin (issued in Jan 12) made my PD (10/2009) current (starting Feb 1). I got my visa extension stamped based on the extended H1B and got a full 3 years.

Hope that helps.

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Spec was very clear in this context, hence he printed the word ' filed' in bold. So it is the filing date that counts.
If you are not current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 3 yrs extension.
If you are current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 1 year extension.
Bookworm, do you think any of the above statements doesn't fit in your case?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy,

I agree.

In the document, I also said


and I have mentioned that scenario several times.

The only law about allocation is for the Quarterly limit, so allocating more in a month within the quarter is very likely. Figures for EB3 in previous years shows this does appear to happen.

Frankly, I think the quarterly limit for Q2 might be a bit tight. As long as he successfully negotiates that, a new quarter's allocation becomes available.

Although it is the law, I am not convinced CO has ever seen 27% as a hard, hard limit, since he can "anticipate" returns of visas from Consulates. If those happen to be "less" than he used in his calculations, then he has exceeded the Quarterly limit. Only the Year End limit is a hard cap in reality IMO.

I am more and more convinced that CO knows exactly where he wants to stop the forward movement in Cut Off Dates and that he will do that regardless. In that respect, I have stopped trying to guess.

I think the more interesting question is how much SOFAD there will be this year. Really, leaving aside the EAD/AP issue, that is the only important number, other than the more cases there are, the longer it will be before rapid forward movement is possible again.

As both Q and yourself have said, the forward movement is completely independent of the number of visas available this year.

People should enjoy it while it lasts, but it will end eventually.

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Thanks Spec for your detailed explanation. Completely agree with you. I believe that we can expect significantly higher SOFAD this year if the approvals have been less than or equal to the quarterly approval limits. Let’s hope that forward movement continues even though it might be for the next year because having EAD / AP really helps.

Another Jan filer( 7-OCT-2008) got greened......Jan fillers 5 of them in trackitt got approved today......

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...hering/page/86

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec was very clear in this context, hence he printed the word ' filed' in bold. So it is the filing date that counts.
If you are not current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 3 yrs extension.
If you are current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 1 year extension.
Bookworm, do you think any of the above statements doesn't fit in your case?

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In my case the original extension was filed in Oct 11 but then they moved it to premium processing in Jan as I was in India and needed to get back. I don't know if the initial and premium count as separate filings or just as an upgrade. The original was filed in Oct 11 and the premium was filed after Jan 10th 2012.

Just wanted to add that I respect the insight that all the gurus bring to the convoluted area of immigration and my intent in posting was to provide anecdotal evidence to support Spec's excellent post.

Sorry for hijacking the thread.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bookworm

In my case the original extension was filed in Oct 11 but then they moved it to premium processing in Jan as I was in India and needed to get back. I don't know if the initial and premium count as separate filings or just as an upgrade. The original was filed in Oct 11 and the premium was filed after Jan 10th 2012.

Just wanted to add that I respect the insight that all the gurus bring to the convoluted area of immigration and my intent in posting was to provide anecdotal evidence to support Spec's excellent post.

Sorry for hijacking the thread.

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bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

Teddy, I am also convinced now. Thanks for the explanation, both you and vizcard.

CO is an expert in impedance matching and he must have good circuit breakers to prevent blowouts :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks Vizcard for pointing, I read through Spec's post and he has the circuit breaker scenario also documented by quarterly limits. Now since this will be a new quarter I think they can have a open heart about forward movement.

"Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.".

Spec thanks your description sounds perfect.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

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Even if he is out of country H1 extension processing should continue isn't it? Assuming stamping went smoothly for him....I would say thats lucky.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

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I was lucky. I got the I-797 in 2 days after they filed for premium processing and got the visa stamped after answering 2 questions (name of employer & job title). My frame of mind at that point in time was "to hell with immigration issues - there's more important things in life". But now I am back into the GC hunting mode!

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Originally Posted by essenel

Tackle, I have been following your posts... I think your avatar is very fitting. It's extremely frustrating when you have no idea what's going on with your application.... Please hang in there...

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Thanks man. Appreciate it. And, wish you all the best with your RFE review. Hope we get good news soon.

Love the attitude you had.
Meanwhile looks like they were just waiting for you to file the Premium so they can pocked a few extra bucks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bookworm

I was lucky. I got the I-797 in 2 days after they filed for premium processing and got the visa stamped after answering 2 questions (name of employer & job title). My frame of mind at that point in time was "to hell with immigration issues - there's more important things in life". But now I am back into the GC hunting mode!

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Even if he is out of country H1 extension processing should continue isn't it? Assuming stamping went smoothly for him....I would say thats lucky.

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Sun . You are correct , extensions remain valid unlike a change of status application which may be considered abondoned. thanks

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Sun . You are correct , extensions remain valid unlike a change of status application which may be considered abondoned. thanks

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Only thing is bookworm may have got I94 attached with I797 which is kinda useless now.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Love the attitude you had.
Meanwhile looks like they were just waiting for you to file the Premium so they can pocked a few extra bucks.

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Again as luck would have it - my company picked up the tab for that expense. The whole immigration system feels like a scam to gouge people who can not vote and affect politicians.

End of Rant. Back to regular programming (aka What will CO do?)

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

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IMO - There is a high chance that you will get your GC in this FY. Also if DOS/USCIS coninue to do what they did this FY, there will be quarterly spillovers(monthly in fact) next FY too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

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Makmohan,

1) Most likely you will get your GC in this FY spillover. You will get a better idea over the next couple of months.
2) If you plan to stay in your job and job is safe and looks like it will stay that way and if the company is not willing to do H1B, EAD is fine. In case you are the real cautious one who worries about backup plan for a backup plan, go for the H1B.

Just speculation, VO may move another 2 months for April.
reason: March projection was movement of 6 months but it was moved by 4 months only:cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makmohan

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

IMO - There is a high chance that you will get your GC in this FY. Also if DOS/USCIS coninue to do what they did this FY, there will be quarterly spillovers(monthly in fact) next FY too.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Makmohan,

1) Most likely you will get your GC in this FY spillover. You will get a better idea over the next couple of months.
2) If you plan to stay in your job and job is safe and looks like it will stay that way and if the company is not willing to do H1B, EAD is fine. In case you are the real cautious one who worries about backup plan for a backup plan, go for the H1B.

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Im in the exact same boat. 8/20/08 PD and H1B expiring on 11/30/12. Im pretty certain, I'll be greened by 11/30. I'm planning on making a game time decision. Even if I don't get greened by then I will most likely stay with EAD.

The day is setting here on the east coast and no bulletin yet today. ಠ_ಠ

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Originally Posted by mrdeeds

The day is setting here on the east coast and no bulletin yet today. ಠ_ಠ

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DD came out today, VB will come out tomorrow.