Like the bold much :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
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Like the bold much :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Thanks, USCIS - DOS kind of applied the emergency brakes in Aug. Till Aug the trends were holding quite well. Now if we look at the limited Trackitt approvals in Aug, EB2 I just represents 50%. Normally this ratio would have been 80-85%. The numbers are small so this might skew up the numbers but it seems to be fairly consistent with the direction of the Aug VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
EB1 - C – 3, EB1 - B – 1, EB2 ROW – 2, EB2 - I – 7, EB3 - I - 1
Thanks for the explanation. I see the discrepancy you are referring now. I agree with you. Just laying out an alternate thought as well: Approvals might be the effect of not-so-much-movement of EB2I in August and not the actual cause?
Comparing EB1 and EB2ROW numbers for last 7 months--as %change from previous month might give a different picture.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Totally agree with you, I also expressed similar thoughts in post # 5866 in my response to Q. Million dollar question is that have we already reaped and enjoyed those benefits and in what proportion. Really the VB is going to give the answer; this will certainly be a very important week for all of us. Good luck to everyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
It has been a while since i thought about this stuff, since the dates were so far off.
A question - I have an approved I140 (august 2009), waiting for I485 to become current. If I understand it correctly, I cannot file for I485 right now. Will USCIS contact me when dates for I485 are current or when I am eligible to file I485? Or is it that I have to monitor the dates and have to file only when I am sure that the dates are current? How does this work?
I will appreciate any guidance on this.
Bro, Funny to compare with batteries, at least batteries are better than these ratings, INSIDE JOB movie gives a whole picture of these rating agencies & their ratings
wiQuote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Onus is on you to file for Adjustment of Status. In fact, that's when the application becomes yours, until then it's your employer's petition. Any communication will ONLY be with your employer uptil 485 stage. Once you file for AOS, CIS starts communicating with you directly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aguy007
Department of State issues the cut off dates.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html
http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html
Familiarize yourself with the above two links and their reaches. Operation of the Numerical Control Process will tell you how around the 8th of each month, a visa bulletin is issued, that contains the cut off dates.
You want to check each month, as you never know. Although realistically, you are in for a long haul. As and when you familiarize yourself with the process, you will know which months to lay low, and which months to be on the lookout for.
You have to do this. No one, is going to inform you when you are eligible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aguy007
Teddy if its a belief then that is where we can't have a rational argument. If its belief then that's the end of the road for either agreement or disagreement.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Depending on how much is already consumed will change the explanation for low consumption in August. In my judgement this is artificially subdued. Its possible they artificially subdued it to make a case for a BTM. We will see ... "Dilli Door Nahin!".
Teddy I think we are in strong agreement. ROW consumption this year for EB2 is slightly higher than last year. Plus the ROW EB2 allocation is less - resulting in less SOFAD contribution overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
On another note .... where you been !
p.s. - Until Friday when i checked trackitt data, it was still showing favorable EB1 EB2ROW trend. Just today I checked it again and it shows 19 EB1 approvals and 14 EB2ROW approvals in first 7 days of August. That is indeed a worrisome rate. On other hands EB2IC have had close to 45 approvals in first 2 weeks.
Trackitt - nothing unusual spike in approvals posted even at end of today, in either category.
Saw a guy with Nationality India, but country of chargeability Nepal, in EB2 ROW approved ... Makes you wonder what happens if born on the plane, does the airlines' nationality count, or the airspace you are in count :)
Q, I have been reading old IV posts, the original EB2-EB3 Predictions thread. I kind of wanted to see the legacy and how this blog took birth. A lot of things make sense to me now.
Thanks for making this a safe haven for fellow aspirants, to freely, speak their minds, and understand this intricate process. To not fear asking questions. To not burn anyone on the stake.
I am late to this party, just beginning to get a grasp of the glorious stage you, Teddy, and various other heroes I see on IV set. I hope their avatars are still lingering on here.
To boldly go where no one has gone before, with the enigmatic 'Q' of Star Trek, this time on your side.
I finally got greened. I have been regular visitor on this forum since it started
Checked mail box yesterday and found green cards for me and my wife and welcome letters for both.
Priority date : Apr 06 2007
Category : EB2
Approval date : Aug 02 2011
I wish good luck for all the folks waiting to be greened.
Two thing can happen this week. If bulletin get published early means DOS has less supply for sure than demand and no need to wait for whole week to see consumption rate till last minute. If it gets delay means they have higher or moderate supply and they want to see how USCIS can handle approval rate. Since August movement for backlogged country was not that great I see first one happening , bulletin may be released today or tomorrow itself.
Congrats To you and your family... :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by kaella
Hi,
My employer has not given my PERM and I-140 documents. Intially they said my PD is XX-XX-XXXX and now they are saying different date. How can i get my documents copy.
If I am not wrong we can use G-639 form to get information from USCIS. If yes please let me know to which address we need to send this form.
Thanks in advance.
Sep 2008, 2009 & 2010 bulletins dates:
Aug 8th 2008 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 june 06 to 8 august 06
Aug 10th 2009 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Oct 2003 to 8 Jan 2005, did not retro in Oct
Aug 9th 2010 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Mar 06 to 8 May 06
So past 3 years, sep bulletin only 5 business days ino week, always movement, and no retro in next October.
In the past fw years it moved atleast 2 months . So this year it may move 5-6 weeks since the demand is twice as thick , So I am gussing MAY20 or MAY 27. I hope there is a bigger movement though
Restating the obvious, but we are on the 6th working day. Hope it comes today and we get done with it once for good and sit out and wait till May 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. I agree we differ by a wide margin on the perception of how much SOFAD is used. There was a discussion between me and Veni several posts back even he tended to agree with the 30K consumption till Aug.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for your predictions even Iam praying for BTM. I agree with you ROW consumption will be higher I believe we look at Trackitt differently I go by the "485 Approval Denial date" while I believe as you mentioned you look at the last update date that’s causing the discrepancy. I use primary applicant only in addition to the date filter for the 485 approval / denial date.
Thanks for your kind words.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Teddy
I am not saying BTM is certainty. But I do think Jul 8th has a very decent chance.
As per 30 K consumption - I think you are assuming that all of May-Jul visas are allocated. That doesn't seem to be the case when you look so many cases pending that are current in trackitt. Cross the fingers :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q I agree with you Trackitt approvals do not indicate that all cases have been approved but looks like at some point they will be approved prior to Sep end so both ways are different approaches to look at the same thing. However by your approach there is a possibility that if there are some genuine issues with the cases that are current they can move further this is the silver lining that I see. I agree BTM will always be in the speculative domain there can be no certainty around it, we can only pray for it. All the best to you on your personal front, we all hope to hear your good news this week. 8th Jul is also a great point to settle down it will be 14 months of movement from last year through one of the densest zones.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Demand data for September 2011 posted..
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Search USCIS FOIA in google.
I got all my PERM/140 documents through FOIA.
I waited for almost six months. FOIA has a huge backlog of 8000 or sth.
Not only GC has backlog, FOIA also has backlog, everything is slow in the immigration agencies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shreyasai2004
Thanks for posting the I+C demand is just in the excess of 8K. If we assume that a cap number was attached to every case that does not figure here then let’s do a rough calculation of SOFAD consumed. When this year started we saw 34K as the total on the demand data, so 34-8 = 26K is the absolute reduction in the demand data. If we assume 4-6K of porting then definitely 30K or more SOFAD has been consumed or cap number allocated. Looks like the VB will come out in a day or two now, all the very best to everyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by superdesi2100
thanks for posting.
we need 8000 visa numbers to finish 2007 July fisaco.
Quote:
Originally Posted by superdesi2100
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I agree with your summary.
One element we have never taken into account is any approvals direct from LO when the PD was Current at time of interview.
These are cases that DOS would have not had foreknowledge of and would be in addition to the apparent drop in Demand.
The numbers may appear to be small compared to EB3, but they are not zero. In an end game where the numbers are close, those may have a role to play.
September Demand figures are exactly as expected. I had already filled them in in my spreadsheet and was within 75 on all figures for EB2.
Time to wait for the VB itself!
I always get beat to this by someone :)Quote:
Originally Posted by superdesi2100
Thank you. 8000 left, hopefully they reduce it by half to 4k in this FY. Then if EB1 is merciful, stage is set for a tipping/decision point in around May 2012.
Demand Data Question:
The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.
Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).
EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).
Sep demand data out :)... Start Music...Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!
Also why are there ONLY 275 cases between Jan 2008 and Jan 2011 i.e 8275 - 8000.
Quote:
Originally Posted by superdesi2100
appropiate song ...."who let the dogs out???" :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by velugc
I was looking at the Aug demand data this morning (waiting for the Sept Demand Data) and EB2 India was around 6400.Quote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
Sep will reduce it but then new demand will flow in. So it can go eitherway. The reason being demand data is "documentarily qualified".
EB2ROW is zero which looks strange.
BTM will be common for EB2IC. But if there is no BTM then in 2012 FY EB2C will have much faster SFM compared to EB2I. Makes sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Very very astute observation. I can't think of any hole in this. I think they need to do BTM for EB2 C right now! At the very worst in October when they show that demand is, let's say only 2600 (taking into account 1000 approvals as well as 400 chinese PWMB, just a hypothetical scenario), which is less than 2800, which China is projected to consume easily. And their BTM's B would be bigger than us potentially.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Hi Everyone,
So can someone predict the cut off date for September bulletin based on this link ....Quote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
On second thoughts, maybe they have to do simultaneous BTM, as otherwise, they might violate the strict order of PD for SO visa assignment. And as Q said above, can instead do SFM for C.
vchirakala,Quote:
Originally Posted by vchirakala
I attribute these post 2008 numbers to:
1. CP demand (does this show up in demand data?)
2. Porting, the PDs have yet not been interfiled to the EB3 date.
It can't be clerical error, as we have been seeing these post 2008 number consistently.
They maybe useful if DOS needs to show there is demand in 2008 and need to move dates to reach there, but that applies only to 1 above. Brings back all the talk of NVC Notices for CP in EB2 I 2008 PDs.
Thanks! But SFM may not be possible since EB2 China will not have enough applications that are 'documentarily qualified' for atleast 2 months from when they decide to make BTM. It would make more sense if they have BTM for EB2 China right now.... but then USCIS and DOS have their own way of doing things...
I have a feeling that EB2 China will set a precedent for EB2 India and that would happen soon. Best case would be that they will be forced to have BTM for EB2 India at the same time as that EB2 China. So EB2 China demand going below 2800 in sept 2011 could be a blessing for EB2 India.
All the best to everybody for Sept 2011.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Can someone explain this ?
EB-2 I demand before Jan 1st 2008 is 4800 and before Jan 1st 2011 is 4925 -- how come 125 documantory qualified immigrants between these dates.. COD for EB2 India were never current during this time.. Are they CP cases by any chance?
qblogfan,
Any updates/rumors from our chinese friends on the mittbs blog?