EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I believe the range will be 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 with 6K to 8K numbers being allocated.

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Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.

Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?

I just did a simple test to check if all cases are preadjudicated positively. Just check how many EB2I cases are approved this year on trackitt and what %is denied.

The result is less than 1% denials for all EB2I approvals this year. Of that one case is a clear mistake on behalf of USCIS and the other is a possible mistake.

So in nutshell, there is 99% chance that every backlogged EB2IC case is positively preadjudicated and all one has to do is sit back and wait to become current.

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Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.

Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I just did a simple test to check if all cases are preadjudicated positively. Just check how many EB2I cases are approved this year on trackitt and what %is denied.

The result is less than 1% denials for all EB2I approvals this year. Of that one case is a clear mistake on behalf of USCIS and the other is a possible mistake.

So in nutshell, there is 99% chance that every backlogged EB2IC case is positively preadjudicated and all one has to do is sit back and wait to become current.

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Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.

I guess someone answered this question of yours a few pages back. I believe the answer was that in such cases, these particular visa numbers may get wasted. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.

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Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.

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Let wait to hear from Teddy then.

But generally this number would be miniscule. I wouldn't worry about it. These numbers would already be factored into the dates movement, so I wouldn't count on any upside because of tehse kind of cases.

p.s. - A lot of people here are helping by sharing. I am also doing my bit.

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Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.

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Originally Posted by haripathhi

I guess someone answered this question of yours a few pages back. I believe the answer was that in such cases, these particular visa numbers may get wasted. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.

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I would tend to disagree that the numbers will be wasted. Its hard to imagine with ssuch a large preadjudicated backlog any number will be wasted.

Q.. any news from your source... on date movement. Thanks!

People who have received approvals/cards etc have started updating trackitt I-485 tracker. Good to see that.

The status update system of emails/sms etc seems to be out of service for now.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Q.. any news from your source... on date movement. Thanks!

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Q has replied that visa bulletin will come on next wed/thu

I came across this website while searching for details on VB's and was amazed to see the amount of data you guys have up here.. Amazing!!

PD in Jan 2008.. Waiting to see some light at the end of the tunnel :-)

Great job you guys.. Specially Q :-)

Trackitt is now showing 6 approvals for EB2 India on 7/1/2011.

Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

Q has replied that visa bulletin will come on next wed/thu

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Question to Q: Has the source commented on probable date movement?

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

Trackitt is now showing 6 approvals for EB2 India on 7/1/2011.

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Plus, there is at least 1 (maybe 2) person without a trackitt profile that posted in one of the threads saying that s/he has gotten I485 approval in July. Lets hope for more approvals in the coming week.

As of late Thurs (7/7) evening, 8 approvals in trackitt for 1st July + a couple of cases (with no trackitt profiles) reported in separate threads + 3 (or more) approvals reported separately in IV.

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Originally Posted by vipulgupta470

Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?

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Vipul,
Please read few pages back or the header. As mentioned earlier few times by Q and others, it is difficult to give response to individual cases.

That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!

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Originally Posted by vipulgupta470

That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!

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Jo chauka udta jai use chakka kehte hain(courtesy Aamir Khan). Problem is we dont know if its going to be a chauka. If it is, chakka to Q1 2008 is possible.

you are a "guru" for me ssvp22..thats what we all want to hear..even if it doesnt happen :-)

most of the approvals in July are from TSC ,so may be the trackitt is not getting updated :-) , if TSC is approving dates from oct to feb, the other service center should also catch up. is it not ?

Vipul,

If you are extremely lucky you might be current this FY. We are all anxious as your are.

To be more precise for your understanding:

-With the numbers available for this FY (based on the experts' calculations in this forum) USCIS can easily come close to June or Aug 2007 PDs. As per Q this range could be anywhere between June-August 2007.
- If at all USCIS/DOS decides to build an inventory for the next FY they might ('they might') advance the dates into first quarter of 2008. This has to be taken with a grain of salt, it is upto their policy to decide if they would move dates well in advance and have applications and have them ready for the next FY (reg numbers + Spill Overs) or if they would only move it slowly in the next FY or wait until the 3/4Q of next FY before they advance the dates.

We believe and hope that 'they might' want to build an inventory for the next FY for the reason that they don't have enough numbers to calculate the demand data post July 2007. To ensure that they don't waste any numbers ( regular numbers+spillover numbers if any) next FY and to coordinate efficiently with DOS to move dates they need to build an inventory for themselves. But again this purely at their discretion. One other point that added fuel to this duscussion is the NVC notices that were sent to people (who opted for CP processing) with PD of April 2008 and in one case June or Oct of 2008.

Hope this helps answering your question and expectations. We all are in the same boat as yours. Good Luck.

-Sandy.

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Originally Posted by vipulgupta470

That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!

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Nope. Nothing yet. But I think Teddy Spec and of course myself are in agreement that probably 8K is what is left and so may be Jun 2007 should be quite possible.

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Originally Posted by belmontboy

Question to Q: Has the source commented on probable date movement?

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Originally Posted by vipulgupta470

Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?

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Since you read 140 odd pages (!!) - there is some probability the date will current in Sep 2011 but a very good probability that it will be current in Oct 2011.


I saw lots people joining today. Welcome everybody. Just a small request - if you want to acknolwedge this forum then please feel free to do so. But when people acknowledge me personally its a bit awkward since neither this work nor the work we did at IV was an individual effort. Probably I should change the name of the website. Please feel free to send me suggestions.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Probably I should change the name of the website. Please feel free to send me suggestions.

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Domain name changes are a mess. Personally, i am okay with the domain name.

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Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.

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Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.

Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?

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Let me try to answer your question in a couple of ways let me know if I understood correctly.
- Actually on Trackitt people would update their case for RFE and never come back to update that it is resolved. I had done some research on 2004 EB2 data ideally all cases with this PD should have been approved I figured out based on that 15-20% cases people do not update approvals. So in reality these cases are approved but not closed on Trackitt.
- Now coming to old cases in general if we look at the latest inventor cases prior to May 2006 are less than 1000, in reality half of them maybe PD porting, so now hen the dates are moving forward its almost water tight they are in fact approving every case that can possibly be approved.
- Name check and background check is an issue primarily for those who belong to countries of interest. Unfortunately genuinely good people have been held ransom for years; all these countries are part of ROW.
- The trackitt research I did today was pretty high level it assumed a 0 denial rate for 485 it was all cases for Eb2 India current this July V/S all cases current last July. The summary is that the Trackitt representation for those current in Jul 2011 is far less than Jul 2010 so fewer approvals probably 1/3rd might mean the same but because of the general online systems failure we do not see much at all this year.
- In the Trackitt prediction model that I have also in facts and data I have used a starting offset of 2000 which actually accounts for the old cases, these cases go away very slowly so for monthly VB projections we can ignore them.
- As Q has reiterated as well I also believe that realistically only 8K more SOFAD is left, this number is unfortunately not backed by a very sound calculation but it is what SOFAD was projected by calculation minus what has been allocated in approximation.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I proposed this theory a while back that their IT systems maybe down, never thought it maybe closer to reality as much.

I saw this post by a user on trackitt, reading which shows that there is great chance above is true, they say they are getting tons of calls from people.

"I called USCIS and the customer rep. clearly told me that they are not going to transfer calls to Tier2 because apparently they have been inundated with calls all day asking them to transfer to tier 2. All she said is she can open an SR which I had already done on July 1. She did look at the details of that SR and tell me that the case has been transferred to a service center but no officer has been assigned to it yet to look at it. I was glad that she was able to give me that information. I think now I am going to wait until July 29 before I call them again. I absolutely felt guilty for calling them and bothering them and/or wasting their time because she kept repeating over and over that they have been getting calls all day asking for transfer to tier 2. I was very polite and she was too but she just kept repeating the same things over and over. I felt sorry for the woman.

Good luck to everyone. I think I am just going to take it easy now and drink my cup of chai :)!"

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Nishant I remember you were the first one to say this looks like something is really not functional, even though that release was planned for later the online system has either just crashed or its not showing any updates. Thanks for posting the latest update.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Nope. Nothing yet. But I think Teddy Spec and of course myself are in agreement that probably 8K is what is left and so may be Jun 2007 should be quite possible.

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Friends If I may just add to what Q has said, most of the movement should come by in the Aug bulletin itself the September bulletin in all likelihood would just be a finishing touch or intake of fresh demand (This is completely in the hypothetical domain). The real numerical allocation that would count toward approvals will likely happen in Aug.

Just adding to Teddy's excellent summary: we need ~11K to clear all pending I485 cases. If 8K spillovers is still available, the the PDs that will be cleared will be around end of June'07 to 1st week of July'07 time frame. Any more spill over visas (if available) than 8K will clear July - Aug'07 PDs. So, to sum up, as of now we know the following (this probably has been mentioned in many earlier posts, but I am just reiterating the conclusion):
i) EB2-I/C PDs anywhere up to June - Aug'07 will be cleared by the end of this year
ii) Any further visa movement will be dictated by USCIS policy of how they want to build a buffer of applications for approving in future.