EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by GCkaLADDU

Gurus

My i-140 was approved via consular processing route. My understanding is that priority date for me would be determined by chart b (Filing dates). Can you please comment if its not correct?

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As it says in every VB:

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This bulletin summarizes the availability of immigrant numbers during [whichever VB month it is] for: “Final Action Dates” and “Dates for Filing Applications,” indicating when immigrant visa applicants should be notified to assemble and submit required documentation to the National Visa Center.

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and

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B. DATES FOR FILING FAMILY-SPONSORED VISA APPLICATIONS

The chart below reflects dates for filing visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process. Applicants for immigrant visas who have a priority date earlier than the application date in the chart below may assemble and submit required documents to the Department of State’s National Visa Center, following receipt of notification from the National Visa Center containing detailed instructions.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

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Not necessarily.

I know it's not my most helpful reply, but only CO knows that and other considerations may be at play in FY2019.

Is CO going to take into account potential reverse porting or not? for instance.

I was trying to get a handle on numbers of cases that may be at Field Offices.

The last reporting by USCIS was for the end of Q2 FY2018. This is fairly analogous to the April 2018 Inventory.

According to the USCIS report there were 115,084 Employment based I-485 at Service Centers and 47,591 cases at Field Offices. That's a total of 162,675 pending cases, a number also used in another Q2 report.

The USCIS Inventory showed 48,190 Employment Based cases. This infers that there are another 114,485 cases not shown in the USCIS Inventory i.e the USCIS Inventory was only showing about 30% of total cases USCIS admit are pending.

If you net off the EB2-I cases, which are probably fairly accurate, then the total drops to 26,492 shown in the Inventory out of 144,977 total cases pending (those other than EB2-I), or just over 18% of total cases USCIS admit are pending.

All in all it's a total CF.

New Inventory:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/..._July_2018.pdf

Pending Inventory stopped being a useful tool for predictions long time back. I don't see any logic for 2009 numbers showing up in EB3I Inventory.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Pending Inventory stopped being a useful tool for predictions long time back. I don't see any logic for 2009 numbers showing up in EB3I Inventory.

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May be this explains. Looks like they are making the same errors again.

https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/ques...-485-inventory

Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

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Originally Posted by siriyal75

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

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Don't know. Maybe because of porting from EB3 to EB2?

If the pending inventory was calculated during July first week, then we can remove Dec/Jan/Feb and half of the march numbers from the inventory.

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Originally Posted by siriyal75

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

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This could be due to primary applicants in EB2-I using cross chargeabilty of spouse from country of birth of ROW.

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Originally Posted by altek001

This could be due to primary applicants in EB2-I using cross chargeabilty of spouse from country of birth of ROW.

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If you could use the cross chargeability then you would use it Day 1 itself and not wait for portability as most countries are current. So my understanding is these should not even come up.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

If the pending inventory was calculated during July first week, then we can remove Dec/Jan/Feb and half of the march numbers from the inventory.

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I dont think so, it must be end of July as the approvals for 2009 started in July. if you see trackitt approvals there are 44 approvals in July which is like 44*15=660.

The pending inventory in Jul 2018 report against the Aug 2017 report is far less in all categories. I would assume that this would mean faster advancement this FY.

Gurus... thanks all in this forum to share views info's providing strength that we are not alone in this deliberate immigration process to sabotage dreams of many hardworking intellectuals.. with the hope finding fairness where there seems nonein this process..

My question from the latest published inventory is that while PERM data that Spec had here for 2009 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...1&d=1531511889 shows ~1200 PERM approvals (EB2+EB3) for may 09 .. why is there >1400 pending 485 cases listed for the same month PD just on EB2 I List..

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Originally Posted by mrperfect

Gurus... thanks all in this forum to share views info's providing strength that we are not alone in this deliberate immigration process to sabotage dreams of many hardworking intellectuals.. with the hope finding fairness where there seems nonein this process..

My question from the latest published inventory is that while PERM data that Spec had here for 2009 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...1&d=1531511889 shows ~1200 PERM approvals (EB2+EB3) for may 09 .. why is there >1400 pending 485 cases listed for the same month PD just on EB2 I List..

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Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

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Hey Guys - New Joiner here. Have a great site here - which focuses on real things.

Just looking at the attachment here for PERM data - shows more than 16K for EBI 2009. Just seems a bit too high, when compared with the Pending Inventory (which shows about 11K for EB2 for both primary and dependents). Understood EB3 numbers are not known in PI, but I was under the impression the filings for EB3 were not too many. Any thoughts on what could I be missing here?

Q -

I dont want to bloat this good thread with my posts but would like to share a few good experiences that I believe will be useful for our readers. I dont know if I have the privileges to create new threads but here is what I need your help create new threads with.

1. Useful tips for Global Entry Program
2. DOS internal query on H1-B triggered with H4 stamping
3. OCI card renewal with new US passport info.

Especially Point#2 - given the times we are in, my experience will be a good one to share here.

V

I would also like to add that a thread on Transit Visa for LHR Transit (London) will be great. While I was applying I could not get any good info on that. This is applicable mostly for people using EAD+AP for reentry.

Guys anybody can create any thread. Just go to appropriate forum or sub-forum and you will see a button at the top. You don't see a button here because you are already in a thread.

A forum is like a windows folder whereas a thread is a file. You need to go the folder to create a file.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

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Not sure why my previous post on this isn't there, but anyways here again -

Looks like a great forum to share real and useful info.

About the link to PERM data, for 2009 the total approvals for India show about 16K. With dependents that would translate into a number ranging from 30K-35K. This would be significantly higher than 11K Pending Inventory seen in PIs for long time. Even if some numbers can be attributed to EB3 (say atmost 8K), that still doesn't add up. What am I missing here ?

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Originally Posted by idliman

I would also like to add that a thread on Transit Visa for LHR Transit (London) will be great. While I was applying I could not get any good info on that. This is applicable mostly for people using EAD+AP for reentry.

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As I was mentioning to Q the other day in a different thread we have even discussed Chapathi atta in this forum. This was well before you joined. Believe it or not the thread still appears to be there!

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...highlight=atta

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Not sure why my previous post on this isn't there, but anyways here again -

Looks like a great forum to share real and useful info.

About the link to PERM data, for 2009 the total approvals for India show about 16K. With dependents that would translate into a number ranging from 30K-35K. This would be significantly higher than 11K Pending Inventory seen in PIs for long time. Even if some numbers can be attributed to EB3 (say atmost 8K), that still doesn't add up. What am I missing here ?

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Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

Aceman,

Any idea what Oct visa bulletin priority date will be EB1-I. I am EB1B May 2014 , yet to file my I-485.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

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Aceman,

What is your prediction for EB1 India for Oct visa bulletin? I understand it depends on the CO but just your inputs....I am EB1B may 2014 and respect ur predictions

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

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Aceman,

Any prediction on EB1 -India dates for Oct 2018 visa bulletin?