Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You are absolutely correct, Inventory figures show only 4,234 EB3I reduction for the same period, this could be largely due to new 245(i) cases being added in this period?
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Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You are absolutely correct, Inventory figures show only 4,234 EB3I reduction for the same period, this could be largely due to new 245(i) cases being added in this period?
Q, veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I did the calculation for EB3-I in the same way as I did for EB2-I.
EB3-I shows a reduction in FY2010 of 5,854 versus actual approvals of 3,036.
That gives an unexplained reduction of 2,818.
Given there are other factors in both calculations, (2,818) for EB3 versus 3,377 for EB2-I is not that dissimilar. If we average it out, we get a figure of 3,098.
I think we can say with some confidence that the Porting figure for FY2010 lies between 3k and 4k
Thanks Spec & Veni.
Makes sense. So if EB3I has 3K conversion then I would imagine ROW and EB3C will have at least 3K - which should then equal to 6K. Again .... not a pretty picture. But not too bad.
p.s. EB3C is calculatable (if there is such a word!) but EB3ROW is not because its dates are moving a bit faster and is capable of adding PWMBs. Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hi qesehmrkQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am following you blog 1st on immigrationvoice website since it started & now on your own blog. You have been always a nice positive ray of hope or fresh breeze of air if If I may say. Please dont lose that image by painting such a bad scenario for lots of your fans. At the max you might be wrong ...so who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!! But please don"t fall in trap of all those negative people who are stating again & again that there is no future for Eb2 since this blog started ( remember when you stated first time that Eb2would be cleared in 2-3 years without a so called dream bill ..they were all jumping on your throat)..Fact is that Eb2 has seen a movement of almost 2 years since we started to discuss it so it can't be any different this year..
best regards
Q,Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agreed, EB2ROW/C might have 3K porting, this brings us to the point to conclude that 1/2 of the i140 completions for FY 2010 are EB1/EB2ROW:)
Punjabi,
I appreciate your kind words. I know that EB2 should've been a cakewalk. But the way all those PERMs were cleared just in time ... killed hopes. Its a travesty of justice that IC folks have to wait for so long. But then these are the rules and you have to follow them!
Regarding predictions .. I wish it could be any easier. Hopefully in next couple of months we will have better I140 data from website as well as better trackitt data to track trend.
Quote:
Originally Posted by punjabi
Veni you lost me there. Didn't understand the correlation.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
In theory, EB2-C Porting could be calculated by the same method.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If you do this, you get a negative number, i.e the Inventory accounts for more cases than approvals, so I would have to assume zero.
The other side of the calculation with EB3-C is problematical as well. EB3-C had 56.15% CP last year and this may skew the figures considerably. It gives a figure of 1,207. Averaging it out gives 643.
Since the EB2 figure does not yield a positive figure, I suggest we ignore Porting as a significant factor for EB2-China.
As far as I am aware, you are correct in saying the same approach cannot be used for EB2-ROW. The calculation for EB3-ROW gives a positive figure i.e there were less reductions than expected, so I can only assume zero Porting.
PS When I say assume zero Porting, I mean it is not possible to derive it from the figures. I am sure there is some, but it must be at quite a low level outside of India. Therefore we might be able to ignore it as a significant factor in the calculations.
Spec
Wouldn't chinese conversion = conversion calculated using EB2I method (a) + CP actual number (can be obtained from DoS reports of 2010 actuals) (b)?
Since (a) is -ve then if you add (b) ... gives you exact conversion from EB 2->3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
FY 2010 total i140 completions - 73,746
Apply 15-20% denial rate then this brings approvals to about 60k -62K
FY 2010 EB1 i485 approvals - 41,026, This translates to about 18.5K i140
FY 2010 EB2ROW,M&P i485 approvals - 27,406, This translates to about 12.5K i140
Total EB1,EB2ROW,M&P I140 approvals for FY2010 = 18.5k+12.5k =31k (50% of approved i140)
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am already accounting for CP. That is one of the reasons my calculation differs from veni's. I am also accounting for the fact that there is only 9.5 months between the Inventories and adjusting the Dec09 figure back to October 2009.
In a way, the discussion only relates to the past.
It is now impossible to use the same method, because additions can come from Local Offices.
Particularly for the EB3 calculation, it will be impossible to calculate the reduction due to Porting, since it will appear lower due to an unknown number of additions from LO.
It has an effect on EB2, but not as much, since the EB2 LO cases appear to be quite low at present. Nonetheless, the presence of any additional LO cases in the EB2 Inventory will depress the number of apparent Porting cases.
On the subject of Porting, I believe in the main, it is currently confined to India because of the huge disparity in Cut Off Dates between EB2 and EB3 and the time it will take for even fairly old PD in EB3-I to become Current.
I think that might change in coming years and that numbers from other Countries, particularly China and ROW will increase.
From looking at the number of LO cases that were added in the January Inventory and when they were added, I have a suspicion that the October 2010 Inventory might only represent a little over half of the total number of cases in EB3 which USCIS is really processing.
The true extent of the LO cases will only become apparent over several years, as interviews are finally conducted and the cases are added to the Inventory.
If that proves even semi-accurate, when people realize what that means to the time scales to become Current, the pressure to Port will increase substantially for all Countries.
Of course wanting to Port and being able to are two different things.
For me, FY 2011 is a done deal and I do not expect much out of it for EB2 I+C.
But I have been thinking about what Teddy has said about EB2ROW demand falling sharply on Trackitt. Given the way things are right now, it will be very important piece of info come FY 2012. I know its long ways away. But the way things progress through USCIS, FY 2012 can be a blessing in many ways or a complete disaster.
As Eb2 I+C demand gets used up, it will very important see how USCIS progresses dates beyond July 2007 and how soon does it do it. Should it choose to open the flood gates in October 2011 - the first month of FY 2012, the whole year will be a blessing for using up the lack of demand from EB2ROW. If it waits till spillover season i.e. June 2012, it will be a disaster as there will not be enough EB2ROW and not enough EB2 I+C in the pipeline to be approved.
I guess we already new this but the Teddy's piece of info just highlights how important and fragile this will be. O the cursed stars of Eb2 I+C!
First of all let me mention that you guys are doing a great job ova here and I really appreciate y'all putting ya time into this.
I definitly do not want to claim that I understand all ya calculations or know much about this; but when I compare Visas issued and AOS subjected to Numerical Limitation for FY 2009 and FY 2010 at DOL website, I do not see much difference in visa issued for FY 2009 and FY 2010 for EB1 category. So even if FY 2011 would yield similar demand in EB1 category and with EB2 having 3/4 demand of FY 2010 per your model, why would EB2 -IC not receive similar spillover in FY 2011? I do understand that we might not get similar 10K spillover due to unavailability of SOFAD from FB.
Attachment 60
shaumack welcome to forum!
I am the most pessimist on this forum so let me answer first - so that anybody who answers next will be an improvement on me!!
The answer is - Because there is sufficient ROW in pineline that can potentially consume all ROW quota. EB1 will consume its own. & the EB5 we had last year is offset by the lack of 10K family.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am not expecting very much porting from China, M&P or even ROW here is my reason
EB3C only got 4K pending so they will be crossing July 2007 by Sept 2012
also total PERM approvals for China is 2k and 4K respectively in FY 2009 & FY 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3M&P got about 15K pending between April 05 and July 07 and also total PERM approvals for M&P is 2.5k and 6.5K respectively in FY 2009 & FY 2010, historically EB2 M&P demand is less.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3ROW got about 40k pending between April 05 and July 07 and about 30K PERM approvals in FY 2010 out of which we can count 50% as EB2 who already got their i485 approvals in 2010! So what ever porting from EB2ROW should be part of our estimated EB2ROW demand?
------------------------------------------------------------------------
veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks for your reply. I enjoy your comments.
I agree that China, Mexico and Philippines probably won't contribute substantially, due to their relatively low number of EB3 AOS cases.
I think EB3-ROW is a different story.
I agree, that for relatively new cases, we can assume that the person applied in EB2 in the first place.
Where I think there will be a change (and I don't know when), is in Porting of cases within the Current backlog.
The 40k October 2010 EB3-ROW Inventory is far too low a number from what we have seen already of Local Office cases. Once they have all been accounted for, it could be as high as 70k.
That will make a huge difference to when later EB3-ROW PD get Current. That in turn will persuade people, who have held off because they thought they would be Current earlier, to do something about it.
I don't think it will be huge numbers, but 2-3k a year would make a big difference to the forward movement of EB2-IC.
I don't think it will be a factor this year.
shaumack,Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
A welcome from me as well.
I generally agree with you.
I don't believe the potential demand shown in Q's chart will all be converted to approvals.
I see a decent chance of a respectable amount of Spillover to EB2-IC, although possibly not as much as last year due to the missing FB visas.
Spec
I like and agree w your sentence below. Spot on. That's where I think differences in opinion will be - if any. How much demand actually gets converted in 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Agree, as i pointed earlier we can easily guesstimate EB1/EB2ROW demand using i140 tending from USCIS dashboard. Any significant deviation, from FY 2010 i140 receipts/completions trending, in FY 2011 will provide us some pointers. If no change in i140 trending means almost similar demand for EB1/EB2ROW for FY 2011.:)
veni001
can you post the link to the dashboard? thx
Friends.
Updated header w Specs predictions. Will be happy to include anybody else's predictions as well.
We are looking for EB1 SOFAD, EB2 SOFAD, EB5 SOFAD, Total SOFAD, Low End, High End SOFAD
Bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Here you go ...
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...71&charttype=1
Thanks for this piece of info, porting does seem to be on the rise. Last year the porting was calculated to be 3 this year my assumption is 6K but yes it could well be more. On a side note when there are too many applications from even a large company it could lead to mass denials as well, maybe you can track these cases its a long and tough road ahead. Good luck to all your colleagues, being in EB3-I is very tough.Quote:
Originally Posted by parsvnath
Spec I agree with you a 100% on this purely based on inventory difference the calculation of porting is not possible anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
KD, Thanks, lets not give up our hopes yes, the perm surge must hit the I485 queue by Q2 latest (March end). Last year the EB2 projection based on Trackitt was accurate that is leading me to believe that maybe it could well be this year, Trackitt is not reliable for EB1 though. All thanks to your excel formula to analyze the perm case numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
This might be old news to most ppl, however, according to murthy.com (http://murthy.com/bulletin.html - VOL. XVII, no. 04; Jan 2011, week 4 - "Changes in Adjustment of Status Procedures for Non-Current Priority Dates"), I see this today:
"The memorandum also instructs the USCIS field offices to transfer I-485 cases that had interviews before January 1, 2011, if the priority dates are not current. These cases were to be transferred to TSC or NBC by December 31, 2010. The memorandum sets out a system for communication about the issuance of an immigrant visa number for such cases, since the field offices would have made those requests prior to the change in the procedures."
Does this not mean that the latest visa statistics report is up-to-date and that there might not be radical changes from it in their next report?
haripathhi,Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
I think the pertinent part of your quote is:
That leaves all the cases that have NOT had an interview at the Local Offices and therefore invisible.Quote:
transfer I-485 cases that had interviews before January 1, 2011
The January Inventory suggested that Local Offices are only interviwing those people within a few months of the current Cut Off Date. That leaves potentially thousands and tens of thousands of cases that remain invisible. The actual number is unknowable and will only be seen over the course of several years.
It will be interesting to see how many more are added in the 3 month period to the next USCIS Inventory.
I missed 2007 bus . I am just looking for EAD which can change my life entirely.
What are the chances to open flood gates this year or moving the prioririty date to past of my priority data june 2007
Please refer to the header of this thread regarding this.Quote:
Originally Posted by happyboy
Thanks Spec, I had overlooked that part...damn....I got excited for nothing! lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Happyboy welcome to forum. This year the chances seem slim to none to me. (others might say 20-30%). Next year the chances are very good.Quote:
Originally Posted by happyboy
I understand why you are so eager for it. Best wishes.
In a way this is also a turf battle. Why would a field office offload its work to a federal agency. It would rather keep the work and have its own people employed.
Just a curious thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
First of all Thanks everybody for your wonderful analysis.
When the dates cross Jul 2007, may be in mid 2012 or 2013, do you think they will make Eb2 current for a month before retrogressing the dates again ? 'Cause technically the demand will be less than supply, so shouldn't it be "C" ?
Any thoughts ?
Saturn welcome!
This has been discussed in the past. Different permutations combinations are available and DoS can take any route it wishes to.
Current has different connotations: 1) The date is today's date and everybody can file. 2) The date is past my PD and so I can file or get adjusted etc.
If in 2012, 2007 date is becoming current then its obviously scenario 2 we are talking about. If they move date to 2012 then it becomes really CURRENT (as in current marati hai!) !! Under scenario 1, everybody between 2007-12 will be able to file 485 and obvilously the demand will be way higher than supply and they will fall back. Under scenario 2 DoS can move dates just enough to keep new demand and the dates won't retrogress.
Bottomline - if the dates are moved violently then certainly expect the dates to fall back. Otherwise they can slowly progress without retrogression.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SaturnRing
Acknowledgement - Ron Gotcher Forum & Attorney Ron Gotcher
http://www.immigration-information.c...240/#post55179
Refer post # 9 to read Ron's comments.
"Getting an EB1 approval is difficult. Overall, only about 10% of EB1a and EB1b petitions are approved. The CIS has set illegal and unrealistically high standards. Given the facts that you have recited, I doubt that you would be in the ballpark for favorable consideration. This is not to denigrate your skills, only a recognition that the CIS applies absurdly high standards. "
Friends your comments and thoughts.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I understand what you are saying.
The Field Offices are also part of the same agency - USCIS, although I agree there is probably competition between them and the Service Centers. They may not necessarily like it, but they are orders from higher up the chain of command.
Retaining pre-adjudicated cases at LO doesn't provide much work. All that is needed is final approval when the PD becomes Current. I accept if that is a long interval, then certain checks may be required before doing so.
I am far more cynical about it. As Ron Gotcher would say "USCIS have a long record of minimizing and disguising the true extent of the backlog (mainly from Congress)". It has suited USCIS in the past to keep cases at Field Offices, so they can minimize the numbers.
The fact that the new Management will no longer put up with this situation and are trying to be more transparent is a ray of hope. I suspect they are also being prodded by DOS on this issue. I don't think there is the manpower to conduct a full Inventory of cases that remain at the LO.
My thoughts anyway.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I've seen Ron quote that figure before. In many ways it would make sense, but when you think about the figures that implies, it doesn't.
At 2.1 approvals per I-140, you would need 19k approved I-140 applications for 40k I-485 approvals.
If that represents a 10% approval rate, then 190k I-140s must have been submitted.
There just aren't enough I-140s submitted in a year to cover that, let alone all the EB2 Current applications.
Or am I missing something?
Spec he is talking about EB1 A & B only, if this is his recent experience that only say 10% I140's are being approved in this category it might correlate well with the Trackitt trend. EB1 cases take longer than EB2 or EB3. EB1C is still the larger consumer of EB1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
He's quoted this figure for several years.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
EB1A & B still make up 40% of cases. It doesn't get any better if you exclude EB1C. The figures are still unmanageable.
If you think EB1C has declined, then EB1A & B must be higher % of the total, since EB1 still reached 41k last year.
The fact they take longer is really of no consequence, it just implies that more flow through from year to year. The number of I-140s needed would still be the same. If more were needed from the previous year, then more would flow through to the next year.
To be honest, I would have thought that such a high denial rate would also be reflected in Trackitt, at least to some extent - it isn't.
Lets do a rough calculation 40K I485's mean 17.7K I140's (2.25).Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Now out of these 40% are EB1 A & B this gives ~ 7K I-140's.
I agree if we extrapolate this 10 fold its extremely unrealistic given the number of receipts per the I140 dashboard but say if the rate is 1/2 not 1/10 stated by Ron does that look realistic ? Even 50% is a very high denial rate. If this is a recent phenomenon it will have a huge bearing on this year.
Just for interest, the denial rates on Trackitt in FY2010 were :Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
EB1A - 19.3%
EB1B - 2.7%
EB1C - 2.5%
The fact that EB1A is much higher than the others should be no surprise. It is the only sub-category that can be self-sponsored and I think we have all seen some applications bound to fail.
Maybe we just have to agree to disagree on this one. :)